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Augustine Fou- 1 -
Dr. Augustine Fou
http://linkd.in/augustinefou
May 2013
Investment Thesis
WBMD
Augustine Fou- 2 -
Executive Summary
THESIS
• WebMD may experience continued “softness” despite
the uptick due to the management reshuffle after
earnings.
Augustine Fou- 3 -
Executive Summary
THEN
• WebMD has been the beneficiary of traditional ad dollars from pharma/healthcare
advertisers shifting to digital, because it was the “only game in town” in terms of
credible, medical information (vetted by doctors)
NOW
• Now, there are other credible sources of medical information online (e.g.
MayoClinic.com) and users’ default habits mean they start with Google to search
for medical info online, rather than go straight to WebMD.com
• As free organic traffic softens, WebMD has to buy traffic via display ads and
search ads to continue to prop up traffic in order to generate “inventory” to sell ad
impressions
• Display ad CPMs are also trending down industry-wide due to a variety of factors
including much lower cost inventory from social channels like Facebook
• WebMD’s business model relying on display ads and CPM-based pricing is out of
sync with the industry trend towards “performance” (e.g. CPC and CPA)
Augustine Fou- 4 -
Top 10 Medical Websites
April 2013
Source: Experian Hitwise, April 2013
WebMD.com is
only 10.5% share
of visits now
Augustine Fou- 5 -
Unique User Comparison
Source: Compete, April 2013 Data
Next 3
competitors
combined are
larger than
WebMD
Augustine Fou- 6 -
Pageview Comparison
Source: Compete, April 2013 Data
WebMD is the
only one in decline
Augustine Fou- 7 -
Ranking Organic Keywords
Source: iSpionage, April 2013 Data
The number of ranking organic keywords (shows up on
page 1 of results) is helping WebMD maintain site traffic.
Augustine Fou- 8 -
WebMD Buys Traffic
Large number of display ads driving traffic to themselves.
Augustine Fou- 9 -
Shifting to Lower CPM Ads
Big Portals Ad Networks Facebook
10’s of dollars 1’s of dollars 10’s of cents
Advertisers are shifting allocation to get more impressions
Large audience
Publisher/portal
has more power
Lots of long-tail
small websites
Advertiser has
more power
Massive number of
impressions
“Junk” quality and
super-low prices
CPM
0.1% 0.01% 0.001%CTR
Augustine Fou- 10 -
Digital Used for Performance
Source: IAB 2012 Annual Report
Augustine Fou- 11 -
Related Articles
Meet the Most Suspect Publishers on the Web
By: Mike Shields, March 19, 2013
State of Display Ad Market 2013
By: Augustine Fou, April 17, 2013
Botnet Traffic Clicks Cost Advertisers Millions in Waste
By: Augustine Fou, April 29, 2013
Future of Advertising
By: Augustine Fou, March 15, 2013
Augustine Fou- 11 -
Augustine Fou- 12 -
Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere
“I advise clients on innovating their
business to stay ahead of trends and
reduce their reliance on single forms of
revenue (e.g. display ads in the case of
WebMD).”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23
@acfou
ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz
Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares
LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou
Augustine Fou- 13 -
WebMD.com Website Traffic
Despite user and visit growth but the all-important metric
of pageviews continue to decline slightly.
Source: Compete, April 2013 Data
Augustine Fou- 14 -
WebMD.com User Characteristics
Average stay, visits per person and pages per visit have
all been consistently trending down
Source: Compete, April 2013 Data

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Investment Thesis WebMD April 2013 by Augustine Fou

  • 1. Augustine Fou- 1 - Dr. Augustine Fou http://linkd.in/augustinefou May 2013 Investment Thesis WBMD
  • 2. Augustine Fou- 2 - Executive Summary THESIS • WebMD may experience continued “softness” despite the uptick due to the management reshuffle after earnings.
  • 3. Augustine Fou- 3 - Executive Summary THEN • WebMD has been the beneficiary of traditional ad dollars from pharma/healthcare advertisers shifting to digital, because it was the “only game in town” in terms of credible, medical information (vetted by doctors) NOW • Now, there are other credible sources of medical information online (e.g. MayoClinic.com) and users’ default habits mean they start with Google to search for medical info online, rather than go straight to WebMD.com • As free organic traffic softens, WebMD has to buy traffic via display ads and search ads to continue to prop up traffic in order to generate “inventory” to sell ad impressions • Display ad CPMs are also trending down industry-wide due to a variety of factors including much lower cost inventory from social channels like Facebook • WebMD’s business model relying on display ads and CPM-based pricing is out of sync with the industry trend towards “performance” (e.g. CPC and CPA)
  • 4. Augustine Fou- 4 - Top 10 Medical Websites April 2013 Source: Experian Hitwise, April 2013 WebMD.com is only 10.5% share of visits now
  • 5. Augustine Fou- 5 - Unique User Comparison Source: Compete, April 2013 Data Next 3 competitors combined are larger than WebMD
  • 6. Augustine Fou- 6 - Pageview Comparison Source: Compete, April 2013 Data WebMD is the only one in decline
  • 7. Augustine Fou- 7 - Ranking Organic Keywords Source: iSpionage, April 2013 Data The number of ranking organic keywords (shows up on page 1 of results) is helping WebMD maintain site traffic.
  • 8. Augustine Fou- 8 - WebMD Buys Traffic Large number of display ads driving traffic to themselves.
  • 9. Augustine Fou- 9 - Shifting to Lower CPM Ads Big Portals Ad Networks Facebook 10’s of dollars 1’s of dollars 10’s of cents Advertisers are shifting allocation to get more impressions Large audience Publisher/portal has more power Lots of long-tail small websites Advertiser has more power Massive number of impressions “Junk” quality and super-low prices CPM 0.1% 0.01% 0.001%CTR
  • 10. Augustine Fou- 10 - Digital Used for Performance Source: IAB 2012 Annual Report
  • 11. Augustine Fou- 11 - Related Articles Meet the Most Suspect Publishers on the Web By: Mike Shields, March 19, 2013 State of Display Ad Market 2013 By: Augustine Fou, April 17, 2013 Botnet Traffic Clicks Cost Advertisers Millions in Waste By: Augustine Fou, April 29, 2013 Future of Advertising By: Augustine Fou, March 15, 2013 Augustine Fou- 11 -
  • 12. Augustine Fou- 12 - Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere “I advise clients on innovating their business to stay ahead of trends and reduce their reliance on single forms of revenue (e.g. display ads in the case of WebMD).” FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM) MCKINSEY CONSULTANT CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23 @acfou ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares LinkedIn: http://linkd.in/augustinefou
  • 13. Augustine Fou- 13 - WebMD.com Website Traffic Despite user and visit growth but the all-important metric of pageviews continue to decline slightly. Source: Compete, April 2013 Data
  • 14. Augustine Fou- 14 - WebMD.com User Characteristics Average stay, visits per person and pages per visit have all been consistently trending down Source: Compete, April 2013 Data