"Managing Complexity" Executive MBA Presentation (2/3)

Regent’s University - MACL
Sense-Making in a
Complex World
Wickedness at Work –
Complex System Theory
Alexander Knapp
Visiting Lecturer, International
Relations, Business and Strategy

Complex System Theory and Practice
Workshop Outline
© Alexander Knapp, 2014 - All Rights Reserved. alexander@knapp.net
1. Complexity In Context
2. Complexity In Focus
3. Complexity Toolbox
Why?
What?
How?
“We all agree that
your theory is
crazy, but is it
crazy enough?”
- Niels Bohr

Section Two - Complexity in Focus
Outline of Content
2.1 ‘Plectics’ – A History
2.2 Nonlinearity
2.3 Self-Organisation
2.4 Emergence
2.5 Systems Theory
2.6 Networks
2.7 Co-evolution
2.8 Session Three: Tools
“How wonderful
that we have met
with a paradox.
Now we have
some hope of
making progress!”
- Niels Bohr

2.1 ‘Plectics’ – A History…
Evolution of the Science
The interplay
between simplicity
and complexity is
the heart of the
name.
The Indo-European
root *plek- gives rise
to the Latin verb
plicare, to fold ,
which yields
‘simplex’, literally
oncefolded, from
which our English
word "simple”
derives. But *plek-
likewise gives the
Latin past participle
plexus, braided or
entwined, from
which is derived
complexus, literally
braided together,
responsible for the
English word
"complex."
A Complex System cannot be
described without describing each
part but each part must be described
in relation to other parts.
These systems contain continuously
changing relationships that aren’t
easily measured or simply altered in
a predictable way.
A (Non-)Linear View of Complexity Science

Paradigm Shifts
"Literally a
‘jumping together’
of knowledge by
the linking of facts
and fact-based
theory across
disciplines to
create a common
groundwork of
explanation.”
- Consilience
E.O. Wilson, p. 7
1950 – 1970’s Ghost in the Machine
1980 – 1990’s “Theory of Everything”
2000 – 2010’s Physical to Social Sciences
Growing recognition of dynamic effects in (and
unexplained by) physical sciences and models
Rapid expansion of complexity research
developing ‘new’ science to fill non-linear gaps
Diminishing impact of socio-economic policy
triggers pattern recognition of complexity

‘Greater Than the Sum of Its Parts…’
“It is a wonderful
feeling to
recognize the unity
of a complex of
phenomena that to
direct observation
appear to be quite
separate things.”
- Albert Einstein
Network of Sciences
Nonlinearity
Self-Organisation
Emergence
Systems Theory
Networks
Co-evolution

2.2 Nonlinearity
Have You Ever Noticed…
“For the want of a
nail the shoe was
lost,
For the want of a
shoe the horse was
lost,
For the want of a
horse the rider was
lost,
For the want of a
rider the battle was
lost,
For the want of a
battle the kingdom
was lost,
And all for the want
of a horseshoe-
nail.”
- Benjamin Franklin
Unintended
Consequences –
The best of plans
lose effectiveness
over time, or
generate random
results
Paralysis by Analysis – The eventual collapse of an
effort due to fruitless attempts to map all variables
‘The Butterfly Effect’ – A small, ‘insignificant’
change is unpredictably magnified to have dramatic
impact

2.2 Nonlinearity
Crystal Balls and Other Myths
“Ich kann nicht
mehr um sieben
eckern schildern.”
[German] “I can’t
see around more
than seven corners.”
Nonlinearity – An effect limiting predictability because variables
in the system create exponential options for paths and results

“Making good
judgments when
one has complete
data, facts and
knowledge is not
leadership – it’s
bookkeeping.”
- Dee Hock
Birds Flying –
Flocks of birds fly
together in
cohesive, elegant
groups without
any single agent
giving direction
Social Synchronisation – The gradual coordination of
applause in an audience to a single rhythm
Roundabouts – Application of fluid dynamics to
complex traffic patterns without central control

…On the Other Side of Complexity
Third Law of
Quantum Physics
Inherent in the
vastness and
apparent chaos of
the universe is a
natural and
tantalizingly simple
order.
Self-Organisation – A process where global order arises out of
the chaotic local interactions without external control or direction
Rule 1 – Maintain a constant speed;
Rule 2 – Maintain a constant distance from other members; and
Rule 3 – Avoid fixed objects.
?

2.4 Emergence
‘The Ghost in the
Machine’
Originally coined by
British philosopher
Gilbert Ryle as he
describes René
Descartes’ theory
that the mind and
body were separate
entities.
Now often used to
refer to the
emergent and
unexplained
phenomena in
highly complex
software and
technological
systems that can’t
be traced to
physical systems or
lines of code.
Crowd-Sourcing – The development, management,
growth and evolution of the Wikipedia website
Cities – No central planner ensures that there are
sufficient tinned tomatoes in each neighbourhood
Water Molecules –
We understand
oxygen, we
understand hydrogen,
they’re both gases.
What makes water
wet?
?

2.4 Emergence
‘More Than the Sum…’
Emergence has
five characteristics:
1. Radical novelty
(features not
previously
observed in
systems);
1. Correlation or
coherence
(sustainable
systems);
1. A global or macro
“level” (there is
some property of
"wholeness");
1. A dynamic
process (it
evolves); and
1. It is “ostensive” (it
can be perceived)
- Jeffrey Goldstein,
Emergence
Emergence – A process whereby larger entities, patterns, and
regularities arise through interactions among smaller or simpler
entities that themselves do not exhibit such properties

2.5 System Theory
“Science is facts;
just as houses are
made of stones, so
is science made of
facts; but a pile of
stones is not a
house and a
collection of facts
is not necessarily
science.”
- Henri Poincare
Restaurant
Popularity –
A ‘hidden’
treasure gradually
becomes too
popular, and
quality drops
Government Policy – Reactive legislation/regulation
swings from one extreme to another ineffectively
Guerrilla Combat – Two people with different
temperature preference in one flat (or in one bed)

2.5 System Theory
The ‘Ideal’ Home Temperature
Gwilym Jenkins
summarises
systems analysis:
1. A complex
grouping of
human beings
and machines;
2. Able to be
broken into sub-
systems;
3. With interaction
between sub-
system inputs
and outputs;
4. And part of a
network of
systems;
5. Having an
overall objective;
6. Designed in a
way capable of
meeting its
overall objective.
Governance
Input Process Output
Feed-
Forward
Feed-
Back
Monitoring
Goal or Objective – ‘Warmer’, ‘Colder’, Exactly 17°Thermostat – How close is the temperature to target?Feed-Forward – Set the target temperatureInput – Gas from the mains to the furnaceProcess – Burn the gas to heat the waterOutput – Pump the water to the radiatorsFeed-Back – The change in temperature experienced

2.6 Networks
“My people! I
must hasten to
follow them, for I
am their leader.”
- Ted Olson
‘Away Message’ Resonance – Bouncing automated
E-mails eventually overwhelm and crash a network
‘Six Degrees of…’ – Weak ties among global nomads
skew modern social networks from “6” to…
Modern Satellite TV – Pay £100 per month to get
800+ channels and there’s still nothing to watch
2.7

2.6 Networks
© Alexander Knapp, 2014 - All Rights Reserved.
‘Vertices’ and ‘Edges’
alexander@knapp.net
“In the past, an
innovation’s
momentum
indicated
significance. Now,
in the network
environment,
where biological
behaviour reigns,
significance
precedes
momentum.”
- Kevin Kelley
Density (D) - The ratio of the number of edges (E) to
the number of possible edges
Size (N) - The number of nodes (N) or, less
commonly, the number of edges (E)
Average Path Length (P) - The average number of
steps from one member of the network to another
Clustering Coefficient (C) - The ratio of existing
links to the possible number of links from a node
Diameter (L) - The longest of all the paths between
all nodes in a network (as if it were ‘unravelled’)
Network – The study of complex interacting systems
represented as graphs demonstrating directionality and influence
Density (D) – Health of
customer ‘community’
Size (N) – Number of
customers/clients
Path Length (P) –
Distance from
advertising source
Clustering (C) – Power
customers (Pareto)
Diameter (L) – Market
penetration, reach
Network Theory: Marketing

2.7 Co-evolution
"The Net interprets
censorship as
damage and
routes around it.”
- John Gilmore
Workspace
‘Workarounds’ –
Employees will
display incredible
innovation and
effort to obviate
frustrating systems
and policies
Internet Spam – Adapts in form, content, media to
emerging targets, opportunities and defenses
Price ‘Wars’ – One grocery lowers prices on gin, a
second matches it, but raises prices on tonic and lime

2.7 Co-evolution
Market Forces
“Any real change
implies the
breakup of the
world as one has
always known it,
the loss of all that
gave one an
identity, the end of
safety.”
- James Baldwin
Co-evolution – A process where the development of one entity
is dependent on the adaptation of others in the same ecosystem

“You think
because you
understand ‘one’
you must also
understand ‘two’,
because one and
one equals two.
But you must also
understand ‘and’
and ‘equals’.”
- Rumi
1.8 Session Three: Tools
From “What?” to “How?”
The world isn’t getting
more complex…instead,
our understanding of its
complexity is getting
more complete.
Tools can turn complex
systems from destructive
to constructive, but they
all start by admitting we
never had control in the
first place.

Session Two - Complexity in Focus
Questions?

"Managing Complexity" Executive MBA Presentation (2/3)

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Destaque

Destaque (15)

Semelhante a "Managing Complexity" Executive MBA Presentation (2/3)

Semelhante a "Managing Complexity" Executive MBA Presentation (2/3) (20)

Último

Último (20)

"Managing Complexity" Executive MBA Presentation (2/3)