Systems thinking can provide benefits at multiple stages of project management. It enables a fuller understanding of the problem and solution by considering the overall system. This reduces issues during project execution and allows more focus on communication. The case study showed how Portsmouth Council used systems thinking to reduce housing maintenance times by over 50% and costs by 10% while improving customer satisfaction.

1. The Benefits of using Systems Thinking
in Project Management
David Cole
APM Co-Chair, Systems Thinking SIG

2. Agenda
• The Systems Thinking SIG
• Overview of Systems Thinking
• Using Systems Thinking in Project Management
– Identify the right problem
– Define the right solution
– Establish the right project
– Execute the project right
• Case study
• Summary
• Questions

3. Expand the understanding and use of Systems Thinking:
• Overview(s) of Systems Thinking in different contexts.
• How Systems Thinking helps deliver Value rather than just achieve
Time, Cost, Quality, Scope.
• Systems Thinking case studies.
• PM/ST/SE ‘application notes' (particularly in VUCA environments).
Improve Systems Engineering and Project Management (SEPM)
co-working:
• Extend the integrated V model to encompass upstream and
downstream SE activities & related portfolio/business activities.
• SE and PM Roles and Responsibilities.
• Agile requirements.
Systems
Thinking
Systems
Engineering
Portfolio, Programme
and Project
Management
The Systems Thinking SIG
• 2013 - 2016: SEPM APM/INCOSEUK Joint Working Group
• 2017 - Present: APM Joint SIG with INCOSEUK

4. The Systems Thinking SIG
https://www.apm.org.uk/community/systems-thinking-sig/
Systems thinking is an approach to problem solving which considers the overall system as
well as its individual parts with the express aim of:
• capturing the right requirements, ensuring a system addresses the right problem and
the right need, considering all stakeholder requirements
• understanding the hierarchy and boundary of a system
• building in system resilience, robustness and flexibility
• understanding emergent behaviours and properties of a system both positive and
negative
• avoiding development of unintended consequences
• defining, understanding and managing the interdependencies of the whole system and
across its boundaries
• help understanding of complicated, complex and chaotic problems

5. APM 'Conditions For Project Success'
https://www.apm.org.uk/media/1621/conditions-for-project-success_web_final_0.pdf
• Capable Sponsors
• Secure funding
• Supportive organisations
• End users and operators
• Aligned supply chains
• Proven methods and tools
• Appropriate standards
'Formula for success' conditions
(get these right and the rest should follow)
• Effective Governance
• Goals and objectives
• Commitment to project success
• Project planning and review
• Competent project teams

6. Overview of Systems Thinking: Benefits
Understand The
Bigger Picture
Appreciate That Mental Models/ Mindsets
Define Current Reality and Expected Futures
Make Assumptions Explicit and
Test Them
Change Perspectives To
Increase Understanding
Recognise A System’s Structure
Generates Its Behaviour
Fuller understanding of
project purpose, scope,
benefits, risks and how
these relate
Fewer issues and
changes to manage
during the project
More time to focus on
managing the project
and communicating
with stakeholders
Results In
Enables
Gives
Resist The Urge To Jump To Quick Conclusions
Events
Patterns of
Behaviour
System Structure
Mindset/ Mental
Models
As-Is
To-Be
Implement
Systems Thinking ‘Iceberg’
Approach
Diagram
Tools
Systems Thinking Principles

7. Systems Thinking principles
• Resist the urge to jump to quick conclusions
• Understand the bigger picture
• Recognise that a system's structure generates its behaviour

8. Systems Thinking principles
• Make assumptions explicit and test them
• Change perspective to increase understanding
• Appreciate that mental models/mindsets
define current reality and expected futures

9. Level Question(s)
Events What is happening?
--- Waterline ---
Patterns of behaviour How do events respond or change over time?
System structure
What are the parts?
How are they related?
What influences behaviour (including policy, actors)?
Mental models/ Mindsets
What assumptions, beliefs or expectations shape the system and observations/
analysis of it?
Overview: Systems Thinking structure
(Systems Thinking 'iceberg')

10. When is Systems Thinking most useful?
Information source: The Open University 'Mastering Systems Thinking In Practice'

11. Identify the right problem
1. Understand
What Is Happening
2. Identify What
and Who Is
Involved
3. Identify and
Understand Causal
Relationships
4. Develop
Conceptual Models
5. Develop
Hypotheses For
Problem Causes
6. Test Hypotheses
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Trend Maps
• Checklists
• Fishbone Diagrams
• Context Diagrams/ Rich Pictures
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Actor Maps
• Context Diagrams/ Rick Pictures
• Checklists
• Fishbone Diagrams
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Causal Loop Diagrams
• Context Diagrams/ Rich Pictures
• Checklists
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Concept Maps
• Causal Loop Diagrams (Inc System Archetypes)
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Context Diagrams
• Causal Loop Diagrams (inc System
Archetypes)
• Concept Maps
• Stock and Flow Modelling
Description of the
Problem, Its
Causes, Scope and
Impacts
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
• Gate Review
• Concept Maps
• Context Diagrams
• Causal Loop Diagrams (Inc System
Archetypes)
• Stock and Flow Modelling

12. Identify the right problem
Benefits from systems thinking
Improved understanding of the problem
and its cause(s)
Increased accuracy of As-Is costs for
business case
Improved identification and assessment
of risks
Increased stakeholder buy-in and
commitment to success
APM Critical Success Factors supported
Capable sponsors
End users and operators
Goals and objectives (Problem)
Commitment to project success

13. Define the right solution
1. Define Solution
Purpose and Scope
2. Develop Solution
Concept Options
3. Assess Options And
Select The Option To
Implement
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
•Context diagram/ rich picture
•‘18 words’ purpose definition
•Checklists
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
•Context diagram/ rich picture
•Concept diagram(s)
•Actor Maps
•Causal loop diagrams
•Solution Benefits map
•Solution Blueprint
Useful Diagrams/ Tools
•Checklists
•Context diagram/ rich picture
•Solution Benefits map
•Solution Blueprint
Diagrams From Problem Identification
•Context diagram/ rich picture
•Actor map(s)
•Concept map(s)
•Trend map(s)
•Causal loop diagram(s)
•Fishbone diagram(s)

14. Defining the right solution
Benefits from systems thinking
Improved clarity of solution goals
and objectives
Improved identification and assessment
of risks
Improved definition of benefits
Reduced or eliminated unintended
consequences
APM Critical Success Factors supported
Goals and objectives (Solution)
Appropriate standards
Capable sponsors
Supportive organisations
Commitment to project success

15. Establish the right project
‘What’ Definition
Project Business Case
Project Definition (document)
Project (and Stage) Plan
‘How’ Definition
Project Approach (e.g. life cycle)
Project Governance Definition
Project Standards
(e.g. Quality, Risk, Configuration)
‘Who’ Definition
Project Team Structure
(Including Suppliers)
Project Team Role Descriptions
Project Communications Strategy
Understand The
Bigger Picture
Appreciate That Mental Models/
Mindsets Define Current Reality
and Expected Futures
Make Assumptions
Explicit and Test Them
Change Perspectives To
Increase Understanding
Recognise A System’s
Structure Generates Its
Behaviour

16. Establish the right project
Benefits from systems thinking
Improved clarity of project goals
and objectives
Improved accuracy and credibility of
project business case
Improved suitability of project
governance structure
Quicker project team mobilisation and incre
ased commitment to project success
APM Critical Success Factors supported
Goals and objectives (Project)
Project planning and review
Secure funding
Supportive organisations
Effective governance
Proven methods and tools

17. Execute the project right
Managing
Understand The Bigger
Picture
Appreciate That Mental
Models/Mindsets Define
Current Reality and Expected
Futures
Make Assumptions Explicit
and Test Them
Change Perspectives To
Increase Understanding
Recognise A System’s
Structure Generates Its
Behaviour
Plan Future
Project Stages
(Inc Changes)
Examine/
Address Issues
and Risks
Take Corrective
Action
Review Project
Status (Inc
Work
Packages)
Receive Work
Packages
Authorise
Work Packages
Reporting Report Project
Status
Escalate Issues
and Risks
Delivering
Transition
Products to
Operation

18. Execute the project right
Benefits from systems thinking
Better management decisions
Improved management of changes
Improved transition planning
Improved learning of better lessons
Increased competence of project
team(s)
APM Critical Success Factors supported
Effective governance
Commitment to project success
Competent project teams
Capable sponsors
Aligned supply chain
End users and operators

19. Case Study: Portsmouth Council Housing Maintenance
https://www.audit.wales/system/files/publications/Lean_and_Systems_Thinking_in_the_public_sector_English_2010.pdf
• In 2010, Portsmouth Council Housing Maintenance department used Systems Thinking to:
– Reduce average housing maintenance service delivery times by more than 50%, and
– Reduce costs by at least 10%, and
– Deliver a better service.
• Portsmouth Council Housing Management Service maintained ~17,000 council houses
– The service was assessed as three out of four.
– Council KPIs showed repairs being done to budget and time.
– Satisfaction surveys showed 98% of tenants were happy with the service.
– Local councillors' surgeries were full of tenants complaining about waiting for repairs.
• The Head of Housing Management decided to investigate using Systems Thinking.

20. Portsmouth Case study 'iceberg'
• Events​
• Service audited as ‘Good’ (three out of four).
• Measured tenant satisfaction was 98%.
• Local councillors’ surgeries full of tenants dis-
satisfied about repairs.
• Patterns of behaviour​
• What does the service do in practice (scope and
content)?
• Who are the main actors and what are their
roles?
• How are the service funds allocated?
• How is the service operated?
• How does the service perform?
• System structure​
• What do service delivery KPIs measures and
are they useful?
• What is the focus of the policies and
procedures associated with the service?
• How is the service resourced and provisioned?
• Mindset​
• What is the stated purpose of the system?
• What assumptions are made about service
delivery and supply?
• What assumptions are made about service
deliverers and recipients?
Events
Patterns of Behaviour
System Structure
Mental Models/Mindset
Waterline

21. Case study: Identify the problem
• Events​
• Repair demands were categorised as
• ‘Value’ (“I need something fixed”)
• 'Failure' ("You've been, but it's not finished").
• Failure demand was ~60%.
• 50% of call centre capacity about when repairs would
be completed or the council hadn't done a good job.
• The satisfaction survey measured whether trades-
people were friendly and cleaned up after repairs.
• Patterns of behaviour​
• No diagnosis by skilled staff prior to sending trades-
people: reserved for ‘difficult’ problems.
• Trades-peoples’ vans didn’t carry a full range of parts,
resulting in frequent delays to get parts.
• Process diagrams were developed for repair types and
their maximum/mean repair times calculated.
• System structure
• Each neighbourhood had a set monthly spend,
which resulted in only the repair demanded
being done.
• The KPIs didn't measure performance or support
its management.
• Policies and processes focussed on minimising
short term spend.
• Mindset​
• The stated purpose of the service was to "Manage
all activity in order to meet the targets and
keep down costs."
• Demand was assumed as unpredictable; analysis
showed it was very predictable by time of
year, month and day.
• Trades-people were assumed untrust-worthy,
which is why vans did not carry many spares.
Events
Patterns of Behaviour
System Structure
Mental Models/Mindset

22. Case study: Define the solution
• Analysis showed that doing only the repair demanded was a false economy:
• Some repairs were repeated where it would have been cheaper to replace the whole item.
• For others, the demand was a symptom of another problem, with these re-occurring.
• The team concluded that fixing all problems in a property would both satisfy tenants, proactively look
after the housing stock and reduce costs.
• The purpose of the system was recast to 'Do the right repair at the right time'.
• This required changes to System Structure and Patterns of Behaviour:
• Rather than guarding skilled staff, their early intervention would reduce demands by diagnosing
problems and doing the right repairs.
• To fix problems pro-actively, trades-people must be trusted with more spares on the vans.
Other mechanisms should be used if they don't operate honestly.
• The solution should assume demand predictability, but opposite to the original.

23. Case study: Benefits achieved
• Repair times
• Average repair times reduced from 24 to 7 days, with an average of 11 days to do all repairs.
• The council now did more in less time.
• Costs
• Costs initially increased from latent demand. By merging planned and reactive repairs, planned
maintenance cost reductions more than funded the increase.
• Costs then fell year‐by‐year.
 Organisational capacity
 With the same staff, mean capacity increased from 85 to 225 jobs per day.
 Failure demand reduction freed up almost half call centre capacity.
 Customer satisfaction
 The original satisfaction survey didn’t measure satisfaction with the work. The true level was ~60%.
 This increased to 99% for the re-designed service.

24. Summary: Systems Thinking benefits
Understand The
Bigger Picture
Appreciate That Mental Models/
Mindsets Define Current Reality and
Expected Futures
Make Assumptions
Explicit and Test Them
Change Perspectives To
Increase Understanding
Recognise A System’s
Structure Generates Its
Behaviour
Fuller understanding of
project purpose, scope,
benefits, risks and how
these relate
Fewer issues and
changes to manage
during the project
More time to focus on
managing the project
and communicating
with stakeholders
Results In
Enables
Gives
Resist The Urge To Jump To Quick Conclusions
Events
Patterns of
Behaviour
System Structure
Mindset/ Mental
Models
As-Is
To-Be
Implement
Systems Thinking ‘Iceberg’
Approach
Diagram
Tools
Systems Thinking Principles

25. Summary: Benefits and APM CPS
Identify the right problem Define the right solution Establish the right project Execute the project right
• Better understanding of the
problem and its cause(s)
• Increased accuracy of As-Is
costs for business case
• Better risk identification and
assessment (Problem)
• Greater stakeholder buy-in
and commitment to success
• Clearer solution goals and
objectives
• Better risk identification
and assessment (Solution)
• Improved benefits
identification
• Reduced or eliminated
unintended consequences
• Clearer project goals and
objectives
• More credible project
business case
• More suitable project
governance structure
• Quicker project team
mobilisation
• Increased commitment to
project success
• Better management
decisions
• Smoother management of
changes
• Better transition planning
• Improved learning of better
lessons
• More competent project
teams
• Capable sponsors
• End users and operators
• Goals and objectives
• Commitment to project
success
• Goals and objectives
• Appropriate standards
• Capable sponsors
• Supportive organisations
• Commitment to project
success
• Goals and objectives
• Project planning and review
• Secure funding
• Supportive organisations
• Effective governance
• Proven methods and tools
• Effective governance
• Commitment to project
success
• Competent project teams
• Capable sponsors
• Aligned supply chain
• End users and operators

26. Questions
Systems Thinking SIG
• Website: https://www.apm.org.uk/community/systems-thinking-sig/
• Email: 'Contact Us' on SIG website or davidgjcole@gmail.com
• Blogs: https://www.apm.org.uk/blog/applying-systems-thinking-to-project-management/
Systems Thinking Course (OU OpenLearn):
• http://www.open.ac.uk/courses/choose/systemsthinking