Quantifying the Benefits of Meteorological services presentation, Claire Ross, London 23 June 2016 The APM Benefits Summit. APM Benefits Management SIG.

1. Quantifying the Benefits of
Meteorological Services
APM Benefits Summit 2016
Claire Ross

2. Contents
• Business case for a new supercomputer
• Evidence of real life
• Success criteria

3. Business Case
for a new supercomputer

4. Business Case

5. Generic Benefit Map
Customers
Decision making
process
Changes to
Prediction Models
Improved Generic
Prediction
Capabilities
Business Changes
Socio-Economic
Beneficiaries
Increase in
Supercomputer
Capacity
MET
OFFICE
UK
ECONOMY
Improved
customer specific
services

6. SEB Case Studies
Use case 1-5 day
forecasts
Seasonal Decadal+ Additional
value over
5 years
Land travel √ ~£75k
Airport
operations
√ ~£300k
Flooding √ ~£250k
Food chain √ √ ~£100k
Renewables √ √ ~£500k
Climate
change
√ ~£900k

7. “Standard” SEB Methodology –
cost-loss model
Event A
happens
Event B
happens
Forecast
event A
HIT FALSE
ALARM
Forecast
event B
MISS HIT
Event A
happens
Event B happens
Forecast
event A
Improved
HIT rate
Reduced FALSE
ALARM rate
Forecast
event B
Reduced
MISS rate
Improved HIT rate
Event A
happens
Event B
happens
Action for
event A
£ correct £ wrong
Action for
event B
£ wrong £ correct
Event A
happens
Event B
happens
Action for
event A
£ correct Fewer £
wrong
Action for
event B
Fewer £
wrong
£ correct

8. Land Transport – Quarmby Review
• severe winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10;
• Scaled up to include whole of UK so …
• … scaled down meteorological extent;
• scaled down for attribution to Met Office HPC

9. Loss of Information Value
The
perfect
forecast
Accuracy
Accessibility
Understanding
Willingness
to react
Ability to
react
Effectiveness
of response
Actual Value of
Benefit
Maximum
Potential Value of
Benefit

10. Climate Change SEB Methodology
– Integrated Assessment Model

11. Evidence of Real Life

12. Generic Benefit Chain
with measuring points
Customers
Socio-Economic
Beneficiaries
Decision making
process
Changes to
Prediction Models
Improved Generic
Prediction
Capabilities
Business Changes
GDP Sector
Increase in
Supercomputer
Capacity
MET
OFFICE
UK
ECONOMY
Improved
customer specific
services
Qualitative
descriptions
Quantitative
verification
statistics
Quantitative
Perception
surveys
Quantitative
Govt statistics
Qualitative
Benefit Maps

13. Customer Indicators –
the challenges
• customers may not collect appropriate data;
• commercial sensitivities;
• data costly to collect and analyse;
• external factors influencing indicators;

14. Value Attenuation Model
for Climate Information ?
Individual benefit
cases
HCCP Programme
Monitoring
Reduced
uncertainty in
reversable
climate
change
Increased
understanding
of triggers for
irreversable
events
SME Advice
Stakeholders
Politics
International
negotiations
on GHG
emissions
Review UK
GHG
emission
targets
Review
abatement
policies
Review
mitigation
policies
Review
adaption
policies
CMIP / IPCC
UKCPnext
Economics
Integrated
assessment
model
International
economic
growth
International
abatement
activity
UK abatement
activities
UK mitigation
activities
UK adaption
activities
Climate change
cost avoided
Stern Review Costs:
Reversible ~4% UK GDP; high
probability;
Irreversible ~4% UK GDP; low
probaability
Stern Review
Costs:
~2% GDP
~3% GDP
assuming 1:1.5
CBA
Adaption economic
opportunities
Value Attenuation for Climate Change Research
Draft 1/3/2016
Activity specific
research
tbc

15. Government Statistics –
the challenges
• need to remove influence of the actual weather;
• would include impact of all decision threads;
• climate change information influences policy not economic
activity;

16. Wheat Yield

17. Re-Run SEB Case Study Models
• doesn’t evidence theoretical value chain;
• original case studies only considered forecast accuracy
improvements not longer lead times;
• point-in-time rather than ongoing;
• doesn’t reflect any new or changed customer processes

18. What will success look like?

19. Success Criteria
• annual report to BIS (and Treasury?)
• approval of next Met Office investment business case!
• enhancement of Met Office’s General Review
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/publications/corporate
• … and PWS value-for-money
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws/value

20. Any Questions?

21. This presentation was delivered
at an APM event
To find out more about
upcoming events please visit our
website www.apm.org.uk/events