With a new paper by the Center for American Progress as the guide, the slides evaluate how climate change created economic, demographic and political conditions that hastened the popular uprisings in the Arab world in 2010-2013. The Arab Spring was like a spark on very dry wood, and this presentation hopes to show just how dry it was due to climate change.

1. The Arab Spring
and Climate Change
ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTY
CCTP-817

2. The Arab Spring
Source: The Economist. http://wacsfschools.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/arab-spring.gif

3. Climate and Security Correlations
Center for American Progress Series
 Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton University)
 Troy Sternberg (Oxford University)
 Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo (International Institute for
Strategic Studies)
 Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell (Center for Climate and
Security)
 Michael Werz and Max Hoffman (Center for American
Progress)
 David Michel and Mona Yacoubian (Stimson Center)
New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman

4. Climate and Security Correlations
POPULAR
UPRISINGS
ECONOMI DEMOGRAPHI POLITICAL
C C
CLIMATE CHANGE

5. Economics: Climate & Scarcity
SUPPLY SIDE
Severe Drought
Conditions in
China(World’s
Largest Wheat
Producer)
Drought, Heat
Waves & Fires in
Russia & Ukraine
Cold in Canada
Excessive Rain in
Australia

6. Economics: Climate & Scarcity
DEMAND SIDE
Egypt:
 Bread provides one-third of the caloric intake
 38% of income is spent on food
“The doubling of global wheat prices — from
$157/metric ton in June 2010 to $326/metric ton in
February 2011 — thus significantly impacted the
country’s food supply and availability.” (Sternberg)

7. Economics: Climate & Scarcity
Source: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf

8. Demographics: Climate & Population
Drought and desertification in the
Sahel undermined agricultural and
pastoral livelihoods
 Syria: 30% workforce employed in the
agricultural sector (2002)  15%
workforce employed in the agricultural
sector (2010)
Displaces rural communities; causes
major urban migration
 Syria: 50,000 families migrated from rural
areas to cities in 2010.
 Tunisia: Rural population declines in 2010
while overall population increases.

9. Demographics: Climate & Population
Further stressing water availability
 Yemen: Clashes over illegal wells
Exacerbating urban unemployment
 “Angry, poor, ‘bored’ young men”
Stressing city infrastructure & services
Brings diverse tribal, ethnic and religious groups
together in cities

10. Political: Climate & Governance Crises
International dependence on oil
 Dictatorships consolidating wealth in oil revenues
 Expanding Qatari and Saudi Arabian geopolitical influence
Scarcity strains regionally shared water resources
 Libya: 93% arid; the aquifers it is draining for Qaddafi’s
water project are shared by Egypt, Chad, and Sudan
 Syria: On-going water disputes with Turkey
Corrupt and inefficient regimes are exposed as
incapable of managing stress

11. How Does Climate Change Influence Conflict?
“Globalization of Hazard”
 Increases global-local linkages
 Localized climate events in China
 Global market trends and “agflation”
 Local food shortages in Egypt
“Threat Multiplier” Effect
 Exposes fragile political systems to more, multifaceted
weaknesses
“Eroding the Social Contract”

12. Opportunities for Foreign Policy
Encourage regional cooperation & coordination on
sustainability projects
 Build trust for fledgling & established governments
 Improve resource management infrastructure and shares best
practices
 Create shared value
Engage with at-risk groups: human-interest
diplomacy
 Provide opportunities for those most affected by demographic
shifts and limited access to service.

13. Works Cited
Werell, Caitlin E., Francesco Femia, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, eds. "The Arab
Spring and Climate Change." Center for American Progress (2013). 28 Feb.
2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf>
Friedman, Thomas. “The Scary Hidden Stressor.” The New York Times (2013). 2
Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-
the-scary-hidden-stressor.html>
Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and
Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.” New England
Complex Systems Institute, 28 Sept. 2011.
<http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf>.
Aziza, Tareq. “On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring.” Al-Akhbar English. 16
Nov. 2012. <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/13824>