Anthony D. Paul manages a team of futurists at GE Transportation's Innovation Lab. He shares four techniques for defining and aligning visions across organizations: (1) use contrasting stories of current problems versus future solutions, (2) design for stressful scenarios, (3) build on research and conversations to develop collective visions, and (4) map dependencies to prioritize work. The goal is to anticipate challenges, survive disruptions, and drive progress towards a shared future.
8. Multi-century industries
who founded empires
8 @anthonydpaul
âWeâve been doing it this way
hundreds of years.â
âLabor unions wonât let us.â
âGrandfathered government
regulations arenât fair.â
âWe donât have budget for that.â
âShareholders demand âš
quarterly profits.â
âTheyâre a competitor.â
âWe canât move that fast.â
9. As if thatâs not
enough to work onâŠ
9 @anthonydpaul
climate
change
robots versus
humans ethics
and concerns
China/US
trade tensions
cyberterrorism
10. For
exampleâŠ
10 @anthonydpaul
90% of global shipping
volume is by sea, across
3,700+ maritime ports.
Sea levels are rising.
see: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer âš
https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#
13. Whatâs the
point of
redesigning
an app if the
port will be
flooded?
13 @anthonydpaul
Why save
human jobs
if weâll all
have robots
and UBI?
Besides,
arenât we all
moving to
Mars to grow
potatoes with
our poop?
14. This is why
weâre here
14
Iâm Anthony D. Paul and I manage a team of futurists, explorers, and
hackers at GE Transportationâs Innovation Lab in Atlanta, GA.
We travel the world to learn and exploit the fears of the workforce, to
convince competitors to become partners and inspire the resistance
to become supporters. We work to prevent extinction.
@anthonydpaul
15. Today Iâll share four techniques to define
and align the vision of independent
organizations, teams, and peopleâto
enable unified evolution.
15 @anthonydpaul
1. Use contrast for impactful stories.
2. Design for stress cases.
3. Build upon conversations and aggregate research.
4. Map dependencies to sell the boring stuff.
17. Nancy
Duarteâs
new bliss
17
In her TED talk, she dissects the hidden structure of persuasive speeches,
including MLKâs âI have a dreamâ and Steve Jobsâ iPhone debut.
They build tension by toggling the dismal current state versus the ânew bliss.â
@anthonydpaul
see: https://www.ted.com/talks/nancy_duarte_the_secret_structure_of_great_talks
18. Workshop
activities
18
Collect all fears and known drivers for change, then score
them by impact and variability (uncertainty).
Turn high impact and volatile drivers into playgrounds for
ideationâsurvivalism and innovation opportunities.
@anthonydpaul
see: the impact and
uncertainty matrix
https://is.gd/Qf1fcV
19. Driving
change
19
When sharing design concepts, use the scary stories
as contrast, rather than relying only on value points.
Discuss what is being prevented as well as what is
being introduced.
@anthonydpaul
21. Eric Meyerâs
stress cases
21
In his WordCamp talk on designing for real life, he references an
auto insurance app promoting the ârequest a quoteâ CTA.
The real world is broken down on the side of the road, with a
crying baby, in the hot sun.
see: https://wordpress.tv/2016/06/24/eric-a-meyer-design-for-real-life/
@anthonydpaul expectation realityvs
22. Workshop
activities
22
Use the critical uncertainties highlighted in your impact and
uncertainty matrix to tell a variety of dismal future stories.
Design within each of them, then see which design solutions
maintain value across speculative futures.
@anthonydpaul
see: Banksyâs
Dismaland
photo by
Matthew Baker,
Getty Images
23. Example
workshop
23
We ran a community workshop for Metro Atlanta Chamber of
Commerceâs smart city initiative. Teams created stories, designed
IoT products, then swapped futures to re-evaluate their products.
see: https://www.meetup.com/ATL-Speculative-Futures/events/255569288/
@anthonydpaul
24. Driving
change
24
Stress cases help harden designs and to anticipate the presentation
hecklersâaddressing many âwhat ifâ challenges they may pose.
Involving decision-makers in the process of defining stress cases can
also help them to better empathize with customers, end-users, and
the difficult design challenge.
@anthonydpaul
26. 26
â Our collective ability to realize a
positive future depends on our
collective ability to imagine it.â
from Stuart Candyâs TEDxChristchurch talk, Whose future is this?âš
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxgVxu2mdZI
27. Cone of
Futures
27
Stuart Candyâs talk introduces plural futures and emphasizes choosing
and designing a collective vision you and your partners can drive toward.
Learn about the Cone of Futures and begin categorizing predictions by
distance in time and likelihood.
@anthonydpaul see: https://sjef.nu/theory-of-change-and-the-futures-cone/
28. Workshop
activities
28
Use your central future story to share and start new conversationsâours
is called the Future of Freight Vision Timeline.
Capture additional global trends, eras of change, milestones, technologies
being created, and anticipated business opportunities to unlock.
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with Teague
29. Driving
change
29
Illustrate dated milestones to give decision-makers something to experience.
When we reach this specific time, what will it look and feel like?
@anthonydpaul
created in
partnership
with SCAD
32. The RFP
process
32
Without the why, those approving budgets will always cross out
the boring stuffâanything where they canât visualize the ROI.
@anthonydpaul
33. Workshop
activities
33
Seasonally search for and agree upon opportunities to size.
Prioritize dependencies supporting many opportunities.
Backcast all social, technological, regulatory, or other dependencies.
@anthonydpaul
34. Driving
change
34
Individual teams, products, customer businesses, and people all
need their own instructions for what to work on next.
Often, incentives and success metrics are misaligned with the
visionary direction weâre headed and you can enable âsuccessâ
with achievement milestones you co-define.
@anthonydpaul
35. All four in
tandem
35
1. Use contrast for impactful stories. Scary stories can help elevate
value statements and see new opportunities.
2. Design for stress cases. Prepare for all the doomsdays, to survive
and thrive within any future.
3. Build upon conversations and aggregate research. Use every
conversation additively and create a collective vision, because none of
this is sci-fi. The world around us is moving and youâll begin to see
where itâs going.
4. Map dependencies to sell the boring stuff. Turn them into near-term
wins by illuminating the value they will unlock. Thereâs no curtained
unveiling of the futureâweâre in it.
@anthonydpaul
36. Design for
transition
36
As practitioners, itâs our fiduciary duty and ethical
responsibility to look beyond today.
You have to design for transition.
You have to show your value as a strategic thinker.
You must do your jobâŠ
@anthonydpaul