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   Uses the range of mathematical
    and statistical techniques used
    to analyse data.
   2 Categories:
         -Time series models
         -Casual models
A time ordered sequence of
observations taken at regular
intervals over a period of time
Trend
   The forecast of demand for the next period
    is assumed to be equal to the actual demand
    in the current period.
   Uses an average of ‘n’ most recent periods of
    demand data to forcast the next period
    demand.

   For example, it is often used in technical
    analysis of financial data, like stock prices,
    returns or trading volumes. It is also used in
    economics to examine gross domestic
    product, employment or other
    macroeconomic time series.
   In exponential smoothing older data is given
    progressively-less relative weight
    (importance) whereas newer data is given
    progressively-greater weight.

   Next period’s forecast=this period’s
    forecast+α (this period’s actual demand –this
    period’s forecast)
   Based on the assumption that the variable
    to be forecast (dependent variable) has
    cause-and-effect relationship with one or
    more other (independent) variables.
   The factors responsible for the past trends in
    variables to be projected (e.g. sales and
    demand) will continue to play their part in
    future in the same manner and to the same
    extend as they did in the past in determining
    the magnitude and direction of the variable.
   A technique in which a straight line is fitted
    to a set of data points to measure the effect
    of a single independent variable. The slope
    of the line is the measured impact of that
    variable.
THANK YOU 

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Quantitative methods of demand forecasting

  • 1.
  • 2. Uses the range of mathematical and statistical techniques used to analyse data.  2 Categories: -Time series models -Casual models
  • 3. A time ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals over a period of time
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. The forecast of demand for the next period is assumed to be equal to the actual demand in the current period.
  • 9. Uses an average of ‘n’ most recent periods of demand data to forcast the next period demand.  For example, it is often used in technical analysis of financial data, like stock prices, returns or trading volumes. It is also used in economics to examine gross domestic product, employment or other macroeconomic time series.
  • 10. In exponential smoothing older data is given progressively-less relative weight (importance) whereas newer data is given progressively-greater weight.  Next period’s forecast=this period’s forecast+α (this period’s actual demand –this period’s forecast)
  • 11. Based on the assumption that the variable to be forecast (dependent variable) has cause-and-effect relationship with one or more other (independent) variables.
  • 12. The factors responsible for the past trends in variables to be projected (e.g. sales and demand) will continue to play their part in future in the same manner and to the same extend as they did in the past in determining the magnitude and direction of the variable.
  • 13.
  • 14. A technique in which a straight line is fitted to a set of data points to measure the effect of a single independent variable. The slope of the line is the measured impact of that variable.
  • 15.