3. Leading Economic Indicators On the Upswing Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
4. Auto Sales Bottomed Out On the Upswing Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
5. Consumer Confidence Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Bottomed Out On the Upswing
6. Retail Sales Bottomed Out On the Upswing Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: Yardeni.com
7. Free Fall in Existing Home Prices Over? Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. -15.13 -15.44 Source: FactSet, Navellier Applied Research
8. Existing Home Sales on the Rebound 3.45 5.10 Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: FactSet, Navellier Applied Research
9. Source: CNBC ( http://www.cnbc.com/id/32208531 ), National Association of Realtors, Navellier Applied Research Total Home Sales Up But High End is Slow Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
10. China Performing Well in 2009 Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: FactSet, Navellier Applied Research. The free-float market capitalization weighted MSCI China A index includes A share securities listed on both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges.
11. Latin America Also Strong Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: FactSet, Navellier Applied Research. The MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Latin America Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of emerging markets in Latin America.
12. CFO’s Economic Optimism at Five Year High Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
14. Mortgage and Corporate Yield Spike Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
15. Navellier/Dial High Income Series Crosses Over $100 Million In Assets Raised Source: Advisors Asset Management. Navellier Applied Research. Chart is for discussion purposes only. Past performance is no assurance of future results. Not an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy any security. Important Disclosure Information This is a Unit Investment Trust (UIT). UITs are sold only by prospectus. You should consider the trust's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. Contact your financial professional or call Advisors Asset Management at 866-606-7220 to request a prospectus, which contains this and other information about the trust. Read it carefully before you invest or send money. Estimated Current Return is calculated by dividing Estimated Net Annual Interest Income per unit by the Public Offering Price. Estimated Long-Term Return is calculated using a formula which (1) factors in the relative weightings of the market values, yields (which takes into account the amortization of premiums and the accretion of discounts) and estimated retirements of the bonds and (2) takes into account the expenses and sales charge. There is no assurance that the Estimated Current and Long-Term Returns set forth will be realized in the future because the various components used to calculate these figures, such as trust expenses, market values and estimated retirements of the Securities, will change. In addition, neither rate reflects the true return you will receive, which will be lower, because neither includes the effect of certain delays in distributions. For informational purposes only and not a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. Securities offered through your financial professional. Complete prospectus available for download at: http://www.aamportfolios.com/AAM/FISIntegration/OurProducts.aspx?search=navellier Investing in securities, including UIT’s , involves substantial risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested.
16. Money Fund Assets Still High but Pulling Back Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Money Market Fund Assets/NDR Total Market Value (scale right) 8/31/2009 = 30.7% Record level Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
17. Where is the cash going? Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: Ned Davis Research, Navellier Applied Research
18. Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Evidence of Short Covering Evidence of Short Covering Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
19. Covering Shorts Can Be Tricky Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: IDC/Exshare/FactSet
20. Volatility Spikes Signal Bear Market Bottoms Historically large credit spreads have also signaled market bottoms Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Eighty year spike Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
21. Low Quality Stocks During 2009 YTD Performance S&P 500 Index: 12/31/2008 to 8/31/2009 Source: Factset. Standard & Poor's uses a computerized scoring system to compute basic scores for earnings and dividends, then adjusts the scores by a set of predetermined modifiers for growth, stability within long-term trend, and cyclicality. Adjusted scores for earnings and dividends are combined to yield a final score. The final score for each stock is measured against a scoring matrix determined by analyzing the scores of a large representative sample of stocks. S&P does not consider these rankings to be market recommendations. Presentation of Index data does not reflect a belief by the Advisor that any stock index constitutes an investment alternative to any Navellier equity strategy, or is necessarily comparable to such strategies. Among the most important differences between the Indices and Navellier strategies are that the Navellier equity strategies may (1) incur material management fees, (2) concentrate its investments in relatively few stocks, industries, or sectors, (3) have significantly greater trading activity and related costs, and (4) be significantly more or less volatile than the Indices. Although information in this presentation has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Navellier believes to be reliable, Navellier does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
22. Market Leadership Shift Source: Ned Davis Research. Past performance no assurance of future results. Stock Quality rankings are prepared by Ned Davis Research using a proprietary methodology . Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo Quality stocks benefit as bull market begins. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
23. Advance Sector Alert ETF’s Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Source: FactSet/Navellier Applied Research
24. Source: FactSet Navellier Applied Research. Index at 100 as of 12/31/08. The Russell 1000 Growth and Russell 1000 Value Indexes are unmanaged indexes of widely traded stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance no assurance of future results. Growth Style in Favor for 2009 Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. 126 as of September 24, 2009 114 as of September 24, 2009
25. Domestic Inventories Declining Earnings may recover at an above average rate when economic conditions improve. Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Retail Inventories in Record pullback Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
27. What is the current state of the American consumer?
28. GDP Components Source: Monthly Labor Review, June 1998. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Classic definition used by economists: GDP = Personal Consumption + Private Investment + Gov’t Spending + (Exports – Imports) Approximate Contribution (%) Personal Consumption 68%
29. Source: Ned Davis Research, Navellier Applied Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Ten Years of Job Growth – Gone Monthly Percent Change in Private Employment Trailing 10 Years 1/31/1950 – 8/31/2009 Percentage Change Trailing 10 Years (Monthly Data)
30. Source: Ned Davis Research, Navellier Applied Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. More People Employed 10 Years Ago U.S. Private Sector Employment (millions)
31. Bank Card Delinquency Rate over 90 Days Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Data as of 2nd Quarter 2009. Data for the smallest 10 percent of the counties by population have been removed and the counties are shaded grey because small population statistics are prone to extreme values and erratic fluctuations. Bank card delinquency rate 60+ days - Percentage of bank cards delinquent for 60+ days where bank cards are defined as credit card accounts available at banks and repayable in installments. Darker shading indicates higher percentage. Red Conditions have worsened Green Conditions have improved White No change 4-quarter changes are stated as percentage point differences from 4 quarters ago. The relative shade of each color is determined by the percentage change in each category, not the percentage point change. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
32. This is gap hardly surprising Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
33. However expectations are improving! Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
34. A healthy consumer = healthy economy Confidence at multi-year low Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
35. Hit Bottom? Improving Earnings = Improving Employment? *52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus estimates. Source: Thomson Financial and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
37. “ U” shape? Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
38. “ V” shape? Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
39. “ W” shape? Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
40. What about Stagflation? Copyright 2009 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For Data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
42. After Recovering, the Dollar is Falling *Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the U.S. dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, UK, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Columbia. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Source: Yardeni Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
43. A Longer View of the Dollar: 1973 – 2009 Source: FactSet Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
44. Source: Navellier Applied Research. Weak Dollar Good For Navellier Large Cap Growth Wrap Portfolio From 2/28/2002 through 7/31/2008 U.S. Dollar lost -26% while Navellier Large Cap Growth Wrap Portfolio grew +61% Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only.
45. Source: Navellier Applied Research. Please read important disclosures at end of presentation. Graphs are for discussion purposes only. Weak Dollar Good For Navellier International Growth Wrap Portfolio From 10/31/2002 through 7/31/2008 U.S. Dollar lost -25% while Navellier International Growth Wrap Portfolio grew +139%
Welcome and thank you for taking the time to view our presentation.
Economic news is improving. Lets take a look at some examples.
Following a decline in both leading economic indicators and a dramatic drop in expected forward earnings it looks as if the worse may be over.
Auto sales also seem to have bottomed out and may be on the mend. This may be a signal of improving business and consumer credit conditions.
While consumer confidence is still low, expectations are improving.
Retail sales is an obviously important component of personal consumption. It appears that following a “cliff dive” again the worst may be over.
The US home owner suffered a significant and abrupt decline in the value of their homes, however, it appears that a reversal in the trend may be upon us.
It stands to reason that lower prices of any normal good helps to spur additional sales. Thus, existing sales from lower price levels is encouraging as it is another sign of improving overall economic conditions.
While home sales are improving, the market is segmented by price. The high end of the housing market is still suffering.
The MSCI China Index is performing well in 2009 and may be a precursor to further economic growth.
Latin America should not be overlooked as a source of positive market performance and an important component of global economic growth.
A survey of corporate chief financial officers reveals that economic optimism is at a five year high.
The demise of many hedge funds may unveil market opportunities.
Spreads between mortgage securities and corporate bonds are declining which may reflect a return to more normal credit conditions. However, the spread is still relatively high which may make corporate securities attractive.
An example of investor interest in corporate securities can be found in the asset levels of the Navellier/Dial High Income Series.
As Ned Davis points out levels of money fund assets is an excellent indicator of market entry points. It is hardly surprising that the recent market run-up occurred following a record peak in money assets.
Where is the cash going? Equities and fixed income appear to be the beneficiary of investors increased appitite for risk.
This chart identifies the evidence of short covering taking place in the market.
The price action in FNM is just one example of a stock commonly thought to have high speculative interest.
According to Ned Davis Research, historically, bear market bottoms have been marked by huge spikes in volatility in the equity markets .
As evidenced by this data, the lower quality stocks, as ranked by S&P common stock ranking, have been exhibiting better performance year to date through 8/31/09.
As Ned Davis Research points out, typically, low quality stocks lead at the start of bull markets but later “flame out” and high quality stocks begin to assert a major performance advantage.
Advanced Sector Alert system attempts to identify upward-moving sector trends.
The current market cycle in 2009 is favoring the growth style over the value style.
While corporations drop there inventory levels in the face of weakening economic conditions, as conditions improve replacing the depleated inventory pipeline can be a source of positive economic activity.
What is the “wild card” in the outlook?
The key may lie in the state of the all important consumer.
The consumer is the largest contributor to the economy.
Ten years of job growth disappeared in the economic pull back.
More people were employed ten years ago compared to today.
This is a county by county look at bank card delinquencies greater than 90 days.
People finding jobs hard to get is hardly surprising in the present environment.
However, consumer expectations are on the rise which is a major positive.
The current situation puts consumer confidence at a multi-year low.
S&P 500 forward earnings expectations may have bottomed out and are on the mend.
What can we expect as the economy recovers.
A “U” shared economy in which the economy bottoms out and slowly, gradually recovers?
A “V” shape where economic growth rockets back following a steep slump?
A “W” in which following an unsustainable recovery the economy stalls and goes back into a slump?
Of course, a return to the stagflation of the 1970’s is another possibility with both high inflation and high unemployment.
The dollar is a story all its own.
After bouncing off of a long decline the dollar has resumed its downtrend against major currencies.
While the dollar is at relatively low levels, it has been lower in the past.
Historically, during periods of dollar weakness the Navellier Large Cap Growth has performed well.
The Navellier International Growth Portfolio has benefitted during periods of dollar weakness.
In review, we are in very trying economic times. We continue to review our portfolios weekly according to our disciplined investment process. I would like to open the floor to questions at this time.