OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015
Like most things that get pop-ified, the details are glossed over and essential elements of the original work are lost. Ideas are worthless without execution; relying on the pop version of an idea will handicap any attempt at its execution. The talk is partly an exposition, distillation, and application of Boyd’s original ideas (particularly as described in Boyd: The Fighter Pilot Who Changed the Art of War) – and partly an exhortation to get as close as possible to original sources, because the lessons there are rich. Key ideas: * OODA recasts the cognition<—>action cycle central to any organism’s effort to stay alive, in a particular context * Moving faster through the cycle is the shallowest reading of the idea * All parts of the loop are not made equal * OODA is tied to the risks and benefits of dealing with models * As are black swans * And antifragility * The best action is worth more than the first action * The optimal time is better than the fastest time
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OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITY - Velocity 2015
- 2. NOT QUALIFIEDTO GIVETHISTALK Marketing Analyst Product Infra Arch Net Eng Sys Admin NOC Op Tech Support
- 3. HE IS USAF Colonel & Military Strategist John Richard Boyd
- 6. A KNOB AFFORDSTWISTING,AND PERHAPS PUSHING,WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING. AN AFFORDANCE [IS]THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION,AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
- 9. OODA : COGNITION-ACTION :: __ :AFFORDANCE
- 10. HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?
- 11. HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?
- 12. WE BUILD MODELS
- 13. WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS
- 14. WE [TENDTO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS
- 15. WE ORIENT WITH ANDTO MODELS
- 16. WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS
- 20. 1 Adversary 1: OODA 2 Adversary 1: OODA 3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA 4 Adversary 1: OODA^X Adversary 2: OOD_ Adversary 2: OO__ Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_ Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O
- 22. PARTS OFTHE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL
- 23. OBSERVE & ACT VS ORIENT & DECIDE
- 24. FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE Law & Finance Professor Frank Portnoy
- 26. MAPPING WONDER, PEACE,WAR BUSINESS CYCLES Researcher of Strategy & Mapmaker Simon Wardley
- 28. CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODELTO BE “INVALID” ISTHE PRIMARY MEANS OF “WINNING”
- 29. TAKING OUR MODELSTOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITINGTO BE EXPLOITED (OR BLOWN UP)
- 30. BLACK SWANS ANTIFRAGILITY Professor of Risk Engineering N. N.Taleb
- 31. BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR MODELS
- 33. SCALES OF ABSTRACTION PROMISETHEORY Architect of CFEngine Mark Burgess
- 34. EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE
- 35. SO WHAT?
- 36. THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE
- 37. OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
- 38. ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
- 39. ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS] SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
- 40. TIME CAN BE REALLOCATEDTO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY
- 41. CAUTION:ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]
- 42. CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES
- 43. CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change
- 44. CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS
- 45. KNOW THE CONTEXT
- 47. ORIENTATION AND DECISION Through streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.
- 48. READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)
- 51. ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS https://signalfx.com
- 52. IMAGE CREDITS • J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library • Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind • N.N.Taleb: NYTimes • Mark Burgess: markburgess.org • Book cover images from Amazon • Coffee: me • Me: not me