Short review of headline data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 + some key energy and environmental trends to 2050

1. The Global Energy
Picture Today
– and key trends to 2050
Dr Andrew W. Cox
Energy Intelligence & Marketing Research

2. Overview - Global
Primary Fuel Sources
Using data from the BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 2014 [www.bp.com] – published 16 June 14
Primary Energy – consumption by fuel sources (Mtoe)
The statistics are for calendar years - and are shown in
millions of tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) - and rounded
to the nearest 0.1%.
Global coal [and natural gas] consumption has
shown strong growth post-2000 in China/non-OECD
1990 2000 2010 2013 2013
(%)
Oil 3162.5 3583.7 4040.2 4185.1 32.9
Coal 2213.6 2342.9 3469.1 3826.7 30.1
Natural Gas 1769.5 2177.0 2868.2 3020.4 23.7
Hydro-
Electric
489.8 602.4 783.9 855.8 6.7
Nuclear
Energy
453.1 584.3 626.2 563.2 4.4
Renewables 28.6 51.8 168.0 279.3 2.2
TOTAL 8118.1 9342.1 11955.6 12730.4 100.0

3. Global Primary Energy
– consumption by main fuel sources
1988-2013
(Calendar Years / mtoe)
1 toe (tonne of oil equivalent)
equal “approximately”:
42 gigajoules;
40 million btu;
1.5 tonnes of hard coal; 3 tonnes of lignite
Source:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, page 43

4. The BP data only comprises commercially
traded fuels – and excludes many
renewable energy sources.
Global Fuelwood Consumption – Post-2000
estimates by UN FAO indicate that 1.5-2.0 billion
cubic metres of fuelwood are consumed annually
(mainly obtained from non-commercial, non-
sustainable forests). Over 1 billion people rely
to varying degrees on these sources of
energy.
Deforestation in Africa

5. Underlying issues from the [complex]
2014 BP Statistical Review:
• Fossil fuels continue to dominate
global energy supply [86.7% of traded
primary energy sources in 2013]
• Coal continues to increase its share of
primary energy – as does natural gas.
• Renewable energy and other low-
carbon primary energy sources
[except nuclear power] have continued
to grow - but only make up 13.3% of
traded global primary fuels.
• Economic growth – particularly in Asia
and developing countries – continues
to drive further expansion in global
energy production and consumption.

6. During the
period to 2050
Demographic forecasts indicate that the
global human population will increase to
well over 9 billion.
[Current population is over 7.2 billion]

7. The populations of global cities and
urban areas will see further expansion
during the period to 2050.
By 2030 nearly 1 billion people could be living in
China’s cities [approx. 1/8th of the world’s
population]
Many migrants to cities will use
significantly more energy per capita than
rural populations [due to changes in
employment, lifestyles, etc.].

8. However, electrification programmes are
continuing throughout the developing
countries.
Not all city
dwellers will
live in
affluent
conditions.

9. Increasing populations and economic
development will mean more people will
be able to achieve a more affluent
lifestyle - purchasing consumer goods,
cars and more energy-using appliances

10. Global energy consumption [as well as
water, food and resource consumption] will
increase significantly by 2050.
If low-carbon energy sources don’t supply a
far greater percentage of energy demand -
and other key measures aren’t adopted – then
atmospheric CO2 levels will rise sharply by
2050 accelerating global warming.
Atmospheric CO2 levels reached 400ppm in
2013/14.