DATA OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH OF THE “KALMIUS GROUP” “THE STRONG UNITY OF UKRAINE”
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This study was presented by the “Kalmius Group” initiative under “Ukraine Confidence Building Initiative” (UCBI ІІ) project, funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The study was made possible thanks to the generous support of the American people through USAID. The product content is the sole responsibility of the “Kalmius Group” and does not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the US Government.
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DATA OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH OF THE “KALMIUS GROUP” “THE STRONG UNITY OF UKRAINE”
- 1. 1 DATA OF SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH OF THE “KALMIUS GROUP” “THE STRONG UNITY OF UKRAINE” The materials prepared by the “Kalmius Group” members, consisting of Oleksandr Dmitriev, Mariia Zolkina, Oleksandr Kliuzhev, Oleksiy Matsuka and Vitaliy Syzov Kyiv 2018
- 2. 2 “Kalmius group” – is the informal association of Ukrainian analysts, united by single aim – to foster the restoration of state sovereignty in the temporary occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The motivation of our group is clear and transparent – to favor the restoration of territorial integrity of Ukraine in an effective and professional manner. The title of the group originates from the name of river Kalmius, that unites free and occupied areas of Donbas. The river has become a symbol of hope for the people from the the both sides of the contact line. Hope for peaceful resolution of conflict and restoration of unity of Ukraine, restoration of law and order on the territories harmed by armed conflict. More: www.kalmiusgroup.org, kalmiusgroup@ gmail.com This study was presented by the “Kalmius Group” initiative under “Ukraine Confidence Building Initiative”(UCBIІІ)project,fundedbytheUnitedStates Agency for International Development (USAID). The study was made possible thanks to the generous support of the American people through USAID. The product content is the sole responsibility of the “Kalmius Group” and does not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the US Government.
- 3. 3 SUMMARY Data from the first wave of the survey Data from the second wave of the survey Data from the third wave of the survey Analytical report on results of focus group research entitled “Ties with civilians of the occupied Donbas what to do with them”, Analytical note on the results of the first wave of the nationwide survey “LEADERSHIP OF UKRAINE IN THE MINSK PROCES, attitude of the citizens towards the first steps of reintegration” Materials for the “round table” meeting on the topic: “Overcoming the Consequences of Russian Aggression in Donbas” National information policy in the face of Russian aggression regional aspect. 3 12 22 38 61 74 83 86 Сontents
- 4. 4 DATA FROM THE SURVEY OF THE KALMIUS GROUP “THE STRONG UNITY OF UKRAINE” Data from the first wave of the survey of the Kalmius group PERCEPTION OF MEASURES TO RESOLVE THE CONFLICT • 75% of all respondents and 83% respondents from Donbas would expect dialogue and peace negotiations within this year for solving the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. The majority of respondents (59%) consider extended international negotia- tions with the involvement of all sides of the con- flict: with the possible involvement of the EU and the US or other countries and international organ- izations, but not including the self-proclaimed “DPR” and “LPR”, as the most effective way of resolving the conflict. Most residents of Donbas government-controlled territory (58%) believe that direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia is the most efficient measure. The overwhelming majority (85% of all the respondents and 76% of Donbas residents) believe that direct military inter- vention of Russia will make the situation worse. PEACEKEEPING INITIATIVES • International initiatives to resolve the con- flict are perceived in different ways. The majority of respondents in general (60%) and about half of the respondents in Donbas (47%) believe that the UN Transitional Administration with the sup- port of peace forces for governing NGCA is the most effective problem solution. One third of Ukrainians (33%) believe that obtaining lethal weapon from the United States or other Western countries will make the situation worse, while 50% believe that such a step may be effective in resolving the conflict. 62% of all the respondents and 76% of Donbas respond- ents support the resumption of pension payments to the residents of non-government controlled part of Donbas. As for the separation of self-pro- claimed “DPR” and “LPR” territories from Ukraine, it is the most unacceptable solution for 82% of all the respondents in Ukraine and for 80% of Donbas residents. A half of all the respondents (58%) con- sider granting a special status to non-government controlled areas as a first step towards the full rein- tegration of these territories. • The vast majority of the respondents (77%) be- lieve that the most acceptable option of the de- velopment of events is keeping Donbas as part of Ukrainewith the same decentralized status as in all other regions. At the same time, almost all respond- ents (91% of all respondents and 85% of Donbas res- idents) indicate that the option when non-controlled Donbas becomes a part of the Russian Federation is unacceptable.Oneinsixrespondents(16%) supports the idea of local elections in the uncontrolled part of Donbas before regaining control of the entire terri- tory and the state border. There were twice as many respondents in Donbas (32% of them supported this measure).Theideaofthe election being held regain- ing control of the entire territory and the state border is supported by 80%. AWARENESS OF THE MINSK AGREEMENTS AND THE PERCEPTION OF AMNESTY • 85% of respondents all over Ukraine and 84% of respondents in Donbas reported about being aware of Minsk Agreements. Among those who heard at least something about Minsk Agreements, approval is higher in Donbas (71%) comparing to total Ukraine (55%). Amnesty is among the con- troversial issues of Minsk agreements: overall, the majority of the population (76% of all respondents and 69% of respondents in Donbas) agree that a certain form of amnesty should be provided in relation to events that occurred during the military conflict. The majority of the population (59% of all respondents and 65% of Donbas residents) would support the scenario when amnesty is granted to people who participated in illegal military forma- tions in NGCA and did not commit serious crimes.
- 5. 5 Considerably lower share of the population (28% among all respondents and 37% among Donbas residents) would support amnesty to everyone. • About half of the respondents (57% among all respondents and 45% of Donbas residents) sup- port the idea that the judges from abroad should participate in the decision-making process as to whom should the amnesty be granted. About half of the respondents (45% of all of them and 44% of Donbas residents) have doubts that amnesty can be conducted honestly and without abuses. Summary on population poll results — Kalmius CATI survey — wave 2 ECONOMIC BLOCKADE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS • According to respondents all over Ukraine, permission to trade with essential goods only (sup- ply of food and products for daily-use from con- trolled territory of Ukraine) is considered to be the most reasonable option of humanitarian and trade relations between Ukraine and uncontrolled terri- tories (59% of total population and 54% of Donbas residents consider it rather or absolutely reason- able). In contrary, absence of any trade, provision of services, processing of payments and contacts (including movement of people) is the least pref- erable — it is perceived as relevant by 35% of the total population and 30% of Donbas residents. • Over a half of the total population of Ukraine (57%) and two thirds of Donbas residents (69%) suppose that local authorities in non-controlled Donbas should be elected by the local population right after beginning of reintegration process; however, 34% of the total population and 21% of Donbas residents would prefer local authorities in non-controlled Donbas to be appointed by Kyiv. • As to the appointing municipal police in NGCA Donbas after restoring the control over those ter- ritories, only 14% among all Ukrainians and 27% of Donbas residents would let the local author- ities to appoint local police. In contrary, about a half of the population in Ukraine (49%) believes that municipal police in NGCA should be appoint- ed by Kyiv as it is organized in all Ukraine. Donbas residents express lower support of such approach (33%). Another 32% of the total population and 34% among Donbas residents would allow local authorities decide about middle/low level staff and with managing staff appointed by Kyiv. • Similar opinion is expressed regarding judi- cial bodies appointment: only 13% among the total population and 25% of Donbas residents would al- low the local authorities to appoint judicial bod- ies. In contrary, about a half of the total population (54%) and 40% of Donbas residents would prefer appointment by Kyiv. Mixed option when man- aging staff of judicial bodies is appointed by Kyiv and local authorities decide about middle/low level staff is preferred by 27% among all residents, and by 29% of Donbas residents. AMNESTY AND LUSTRATION • The vast majority of Ukrainians (from 76% to 93%) and among Donbas residents (from 78% to 92%) rather or fully agree that people in Donbas NGCA who work in healthcare, public utilities, ed- ucation and social protection spheres as middle or lower level specialists should be allowed to keep their positions in case of Ukraine’s restoration over that territory. Moreover, three in four Ukraini- ans (74%) and similar share of Donbas residents (75%) agree that healthcare specialists and doctors of top-managing level should keep their positions. Over a half of the population in Ukraine (from 58% to 60%) and every two in three residents of Donbas (65%–66%) do not have objections that top-manag- ing specialists of public utilities, education and social protection spheres keep their positions. The oppo- site attitude is towards top-level and middle/lower level specialists of NGCA authorities: the majority of
- 6. 6 Ukrainians (77% and 73%) as well as two thirds of Donbas residents (65% and 60%) do not agree that representatives of self-proclaimed republics au- thorities of any level can keep their positions after Ukraine’s restoration over that territory. SUPPORT PRIVILEGES TO IDPs AND TO PEOPLE COMING FROM NGCA • The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians sup- portcertainmeasuresasprivilegestopeoplecoming from NGCA to the controlled territory. Specifically, 82% of residents all over Ukraine agree that children coming from NGCA should have privileges when entering the university in controlled territory. • Moreover, the majority of respondents support privileges to IDPs. Thus, 85% among the total popula- tion agree that there should be privileges to children of IDPs when entering the university in controlled territory, 82% would approve subsidies to IDPs who establish small enterprise in the host community. • On the other hand, about 2/3 of the employed population (28% among the total population) would accept establishing of work collaboration with NG- CA-based company after the conflict ends, the similar trend is observed for the Donbas (68% of the em- ployed Donbas residents, constituting 31% among all Donbas residents, would accept such collaboration). • Remarkably, the vast majority of Ukrainians (85%) would approve granting IDPs the right to vote on local elections in their host community. “LAW ON REINTEGRATION OF THE DONBAS” AND MINISTRY ON THE MATTERS OF TEMPORARILY OCCUPIED TERRITORIES • More than a half of total population (58%) and every two in three Donbas residents (66%) heard about the “Law on Reintegration of the Donbas” ap- proved in winter 2018. Only one in five Ukrainians (18%) and similar share of Donbas population (19%) confirm that they have enough information about this law,whileonethirdofthetotalpopulation(34%) and 41% among Donbas residents would need in more information about it. One in every three Ukrainians as well as one in three Donbas residents (35% and 37%, respectively) rather or fully support this law; in contrary, 10% of the total population and 16% among Donbas residents reject it. • The vast majority of the total population (74%) and among Donbas residents (75%) heard about the Ukraine’s Ministry on the Matters of Temporar- ily Occupied Territories (MTOT), although only one in three Ukrainians (34%) and one in three Donbas residents (39%) know something or a lot about its activity. The thematic focuses of MTOT noted by respondents most often include integration of IDPs in other regions of Ukraine, humanitarian aid to cit- izens in NGCAs, and communication and regulation of relations with citizens in NGCAs. Among those who reported about knowing something or a lot about MTOT activities. WHO SUPPORTS REINTEGRATION OF DONBAS • A half of Ukrainians all over the country (49%) and almost a half among Donbas residents (41%) consider that Petro Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarity» supports reintegration of Donbas; similar percep- tion is observed for Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (41% and 40%, respectively). TOP-3 of parties-re- integration supporters also include All-Ukraine Union “Batkivshchina” among the whole popula- tion (46%) while Donbas residents named “Oppo- sition Bloc” more often (47%). • More than a half of the population nationwide (59%) as well as a half of Donbas residents (52%) consider that Petro Poroshenko as a President supports reintegration of Donbas; Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman is also perceived similarly nationwide and in Donbas (57% vs. 52%, respec- tively). However, there is difference in TOP-3 of perceived supporters of reintegration; specifically a half of the total population (52%) believes that Yuliia Tymoshenko supports reintegration of Don- bas, while Donbas residents name Yuryi Boiko more often (50%). Remarkably, one in every four
- 7. 7 Ukrainians (26%) and 39% among Donbas resi- dents report not knowing who is Minister for TOT and IDPs Vadym Chernysh, while other politicians and public servants are significantly better known to the population (up to 7% among total population and up to 11% in Donbas report about not knowing particular politician). THE INFORMATION SOURCES THAT ARE USED MOST OFTEN TO LEARN ABOUT NGCA • The information sources that are used most often to learn about NGCA include TV (mentioned by 70% among total population and 56% among Donbas residents, mostly Ukrainians TV) and In- ternet sites (35% and 38%, respectively, mostly Ukrainians Internet sites). About one third of the total population (30%) tend to consider Ukrainian TV to be the most credible information source comparing to 16% among Donbas residents who share this opinion. In contrary, 16% of the total population perceive this source as the most biased (comparing to 17% among Donbas residents who share this opinion). • Donbas residents tend to seek for information learn about NGCA from their own friends and rela- tives who reside in NGCA twice more often than the population in general — 37% vs. 18%, respective- ly. Moreover, 24% among Donbas residents con- sider this information source to be the most cred- ible (comparing to 9% among the total population who share this opinion). Summary on population poll results — Kalmius CATI survey — wave 3 PERCEPTION OF THE REGIONS AND PERSONAL TIES WITH VARIOUS POPULATION GROUPS IN UKRAINE • According to more than one in three respond- ents all over Ukraine, regions of Ukraine have big differences in economic development (44%), in traditions and culture (40%), and in political climate (38%). Slight differences between regions in the sphere of economic development are indicated by 38%, in traditions and culture — by 47%, and in political climate — by 34%. • The biggest difference comparing to other regions is indicated for Western region (48%) and for Eastern region (29%). Donbas residents twice more often than total population of Ukraine re- ported about the difference between Donbas and other regions (19% vs. 10% respectively). • Two thirds of the population (65%) did not feel that people’s attitude towards them is determined by the region of their origin. 15% of the total population in Ukraine faced the situation when people’s attitude became worse when they learnt where the respond- ent had come from — the share of such answers varies from 12%–13% in the Center and in the East and 15% in the South, to 20% in the West and 21% in Donbas. Another 11% faced the situation when people’s attitude became better after receiving the information about respondent’s region of origin, and the share of such answers varies between the re- gions: from 7% in the East and 10% in Donbas, in the South and in the Center, to 15% in the West. • A half of the population in total (51%) and57% among Donbas residents support decentralization reform;30%and26%,respectively,donotsupportit. • Two third of the total population of Ukraine (66%) and a half of Donbas population (55%) have personal connections — as relatives, friends, col- leagues, neighbors and other acquaintances — with people from Western Ukraine, and one in three UkrainiansoutsideDonbasisconnected with some- one in Donbas GCA (35%). Thus, personal connec- tions between the East and the West of Ukraine exist and can facilitate breaking of stereotypes.
- 8. 8 • As for the personal connections with people currently living in NGCA, 65% of Donbas GCA resi- dents (compared to 26% among total population of Ukraine) have relatives, friends or acquaintances there. Besides, one in three Ukrainians overall (36%) and over a half of Donbas residents (58%) have IDPs among relatives, friends or acquaintances. • About a half of the total population (49%) and 58% of Donbas residents have someone among relatives, friends or acquaintances who are citizens of Ukraine and at the same time consider oneself Russians by ethnicity. • Perception of people who live in Ukraine and support Russian policy towards Ukraine is contro- versial: on the one hand, the majority of Ukrainians (78%) strongly or rather agree that these people have the right to express their views. Moreo- ver, 69% of the total population would not avoid communication with such people, but would avoid discussing political issues with them. Only 29% among total population would argue with such people. A half of the population (48%, vs. 34% among Donbas residents) believe that such people should move to Russia. However, one in five (19%) among total population and 24% among Donbas population reported about sharing the same views and supporting Russian policy towards Ukraine. PERCEPTION OF HISTORY, AND ATTITUDE TOWARDS DECOMMUNIZATION • Overall, a half of the total population (49%) comparing to 37% of Donbas residents strongly or somewhat support decommunization in Ukraine; one in three Ukrainians in general (34%) and about a half of Donbas population (46%) do not support decommunization. The most popular reasons for not supporting decommunization are respect to So- viet past and perception of other problems as more urgent ones nowadays. • 43% of the total population and 51% among Donbas residents think that their / their family’s life was better during Soviet times; 42% of all respondents and 31% of respondents in Donbas disagree with this. However, one in four Ukraini- ans overall (25%) vs. one in three Donbas residents (36%) would like the Soviet Union to be recon- structed with Ukraine being a part of it, and 68% vs. 51%, respectively, would not like this to happen. • Among the events, celebrities or countries that might unite or separate Ukraine, the most positive contribution is associated with Taras Shevchenko (named by 84% of all respondents), and sports people like Andriy Shevchenko, Olek- sandr Usyk, or Yana Klochkova (74%). The top list for Donbas is similar — 82% of Donbas residents named Taras Shevchenko, and 70% named sports people. Zaporizhzhia cossaks, popular pop-sing- ers and bands, and Bohdan Khmelnytsky received 60%–66% of answers among the total population and 53%–63% among Donbas residents. • As for the events, celebrities or countries that have the most negative impact and can separate Ukraine, the majority of the total population named Russia (69%), about a half of the total population also named Stalin (44%) and repeal of the law about regional languages (42%). The answers of the total population differ from the opinion of Donbas residents: about a half of the respondents in Don- bas named Euromaidan (57%), the U.S and Stepan Bandera (55% each) as those separating Ukraine. • Donbas residents evaluated historical topics related to their region they would be interested in learning more about. The life of Zaporizhzhia cos- saks in Donbas and the Resistance movement in Donbas in WW2 are very or mostly interesting to the majority of Donbas population (77% and 76%, respectively). They are followed by topics on Don- bas during the Ukrainian cultural renaissance in 1920s and industrialization of Donbas in 1920– 30s (71% each) and Holodomor of 1932–1933 in Donbas (69%). Dissidents movement in Donbas is the least interesting named by only a half of the Donbas population (50%), although it might be the least clear topic as it received the highest share of “Hard to say” answers to the question whether it would be interesting or not.
- 9. 9 PERCEPTION OF THE EU AND ATTITUDE TOWARDS EUROPEAN VALUES • Over a half of the total population (56%) think that if Ukraine would receive the offer to join the EU now we should accept this offer, while 32% are against acceptance of such offer. In Donbas, 39% support and 48% reject Ukraine joining the EU. • Overall, the overwhelming majority of the population (88%) fully or somewhat agree that Ukrainians should be thinking of the solution most profitable for Ukraine instead of choosing to sup- port either the EU or Russia. On the other hand, a half of the population in Ukraine (51%) agree that the EU is becoming more unstable each day. • 88% of the total population think that it is necessary to build Europe in Ukraine — to in- stitute European standards and raise the standards of living in Ukraine to European level. However, less than a half of the population in total (44%) and about one in three among Donbas residents (29%) agree that Ukrainian culture has more values that are common with European than with Russian. About a third of the total population (32%) and 41% among Donbas residents tend to agree with the statement that European values are threatening our value system. • Another difference in values between Donbas population and Ukraine’s population in total is that people in Donbas tend to agree with the statement that people have full freedom of choice and are in full control of their lives significantly less often (61% among total population vs. 53% among Don- bas residents). On the contrary, Donbas residents stand for the opposite view that people do not in- fluence anything that is happening to them more often than the total population (33% among total population vs. 42% among Donbas residents). • Two thirds of the population nationwide agree that everyone should take care of mutual inter- ests these days (68%) rather than one should take care of their own interests, without paying atten- tion to others (25%). Also two thirds of all respond- ents agree that social wealth can increase to such an extent that everyone will have enough (66%) while only 21% share the opposite view that peo- ple can become rich only at the expense of others.
- 10. 10 The first wave of the survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine. Survey method is telephone interviews with calls to phones. Survey period: from April 14 to May 2, 2018. 1975 respondents, 536 of them from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (territories controlled by the Ukrainian government). Weighted data for the total population (real sample of 1975 respondents) corresponds to the population distribution by age/ gender/settlement type and macro region according to State Statistics Service of Ukraine data as of January 1, 2017; weighted data for the population of Donetska and Luhanska region corresponds with the regions’ population distribution by age/ gender/settlement type. The data in the tables is given as weighted, and the total weighted sample of 1,500 respondents is displayed for convenience. The survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, except for the uncontrolled part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The sampling error for the whole of Ukraine does not exceed 2.5%, for Donetsk and Luhansk regions — does not exceed 4.9%. The second wave ofthesurveyof“KalmiusGroup”.Surveymethod is telephone interviews with calls to phones. Survey period:fromMay3toMay19,2018.1980respondents, 528 of them from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (territories controlled by the Ukrainian government). Weighted data for the total population (real sample of 1980 respondents) corresponds to the population distribution by age/gender/settlement type and macro region according to State Statistics Service of Ukraine data as of January 1, 2017; weighted data for the population of Donetska and Luhanska oblast corresponds with the oblasts’ population distribution by age/gender/settlement type. The data in the tables is given as weighted, and the total weighted sample of 1,500 respondents is displayed for convenience. The survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, except for the uncontrolled part of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The sampling error for the whole of Ukraine does not exceed 2.5%, for Donetsk and Luhansk regions — does not exceed 4.9%. Third wave of the survey of the “Kalmius group”. The survey was conducted by GfK Ukraine. Survey method is telephone interviews with calls to phones. Survey period: from June 04 to June 20, 2018. 1966 respondents, 540 of them from Donetsk and Luhansk regions (territories controlled by the Ukrainian government). Weighted data for the total population (real sample of 1966 respondents) corresponds to the population distribution by age/ gender/settlement type and macro region according to State Statistics Service of Ukraine data as of January 1, 2017; weighted data for the population of Donetska and Luhanska oblast corresponds with the oblasts’ population distribution by age/gender/ settlement type. The data in the tables is given as weighted, and the total weighted sample of 1,500 respondents is displayed for convenience. The survey was conducted in all regions of Ukraine, except for the uncontrolled part of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. The sampling error for the whole of Ukraine does not exceed 2.5%, for Donetsk and Luhansk regions — does not exceed 4.9%.