Marico financial

Marico | 1QFY2012 Result Update
July 27, 2011

Marico NEUTRAL
CMP `167
Performance Highlights Target Price -
(` cr) 1QFY12 1QFY11 % yoy Angel Est % Diff Investment Period -
Revenue 1,048.6 787.4 33.2 909.2 15.3
EBITDA 125.1 105.6 18.5 120.0 4.3 Stock Info
OPM (%) 11.9 13.4 (148bp) 13.2 (127bp) Sector FMCG
PAT 85.0 73.7 15.3 78.4 8.4 Market Cap (` cr) 10,230
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.5
Marico posted a strong performance for the quarter. Overall volume growth for 52 Week High / Low 173/110
the quarter stood at ~33.2%, of which organic growth stood at ~20% yoy and Avg. Daily Volume 175,629
inorganic growth due to the recently acquired entity International Consumer Face Value (`) 1
Products (ICP) in Vietnam came in at ~19%. Earnings for the quarter grew BSE Sensex 18,432
strongly by 15.3% yoy, despite significant margin contraction. We recommend Nifty 5,547
Neutral on the stock. Reuters Code MRCO.BO
Bloomberg Code MRCO@IN
Key highlights during the quarter: Volume growth in the consumer products
business in India stood at ~15% yoy, with Parachute reporting ~10% yoy volume
growth and Saffola growing by ~15% yoy. The hair oil category with the launch Shareholding Pattern (%)
of new variants, such as Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hot oil, Parachute Promoters 62.9
Advanced Ayurvedic cooling oil and Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hair oil, MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.7
performed well and gained market share. International business grew by 26% FII / NRIs / OCBs 26.3
yoy, led by the recent acquisition of 85% equity in ICP in Vietnam in February Indian Public / Others 4.1
2011. The company has also started to show increased focus on rural sales.

Outlook and valuation: Marico’s volume growth in its key product categories has Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
been impressive despite the price hikes taken. We have factored in ~18% CAGR Sensex (5.2) 2.0 29.1
over FY2011–13E in its focus brands and expect the international business to Marico 20.9 32.51 196.8
grow strongly at a ~30% CAGR over FY2011–13E, with the recent acquisition in
Vietnam contributing ~5% to the top line in FY2012E and FY2013E. At the CMP
of `167, the stock is trading at 25.x FY2013E. We believe the stock is fairly priced
and, hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.

Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net Sales 2,661 3,128 3,643 4,185
% chg 11.4 17.6 16.5 14.9
Net Profit (Adj) 241.5 237.5 325.6 406.2
% chg 18.5 (1.6) 37.1 24.7
EBITDA (%) 14.1 13.1 14.2 14.6
EPS (`) 3.9 3.9 5.3 6.6
P/E (x) 42.4 43.1 31.4 25.2
P/BV (x) 15.5 11.2 8.4 6.6
RoE (%) 43.6 36.5 31.5 29.5
RoCE (%) 32.5 24.0 25.4 28.1
Sreekanth P.V.S
EV/Sales (x) 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.6 022 – 3935 7800 Ext: 6841
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.2 26.3 20.4 16.9 sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1


Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance
Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY12 1QFY11 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg
Net Sales 1,049 787 33 3,128 2,661 17.6
Consumption of RM 595 403 47 1,618 1,262 28.2
(% of Sales) 57 51 52 47
Staff Costs 71 54 31 230 190 21.2
(% of Sales) 7 7 7 7
Advertising 102 94 9 346 351 (1.5)
(% of Sales) 10 12 11 13
Other Expenses 156 131 19 524 483 8.6
(% of Sales) 15 17 17 18
Total Expenditure 923 682 35 2,719 2,286 18.9
Operating Profit 125 106 18 410 375 9.2
OPM 12 13 13 14
Interest 10 7 38 39 26 53.1
Depreciation & Amortisation 17 12 40 71 60 17.9
Other Income 9 4 108 28 18 52.6
PBT (excl. Extr Items) 108 91 18 328 308 6.5
Extr Income/(Expense) - - 49 (10)
PBT (incl. Extr Items) 108 91 18 376 298 26.4
(% of Sales) 10 12 12 11
Provision for Taxation 21 16 30 85 64 32.1
(% of PBT) 20 18 23 22
Minority Interest 2 1 5 2
Reported PAT 85 74 15 286 232 23.6
PATM 8 9 9 9
Equity shares (cr) 61 61 61 61
Reported EPS (`) 1 1 15 5 4 22.6
Adjusted PAT 85 74 15 238 241 (1.6)

Double-digit volume growth in Parachute and Saffola
Marico reported top-line growth of 33% yoy to `1,049cr (`787cr), higher than our
estimates, driven by a mix of value growth and volume growth with core brands
Parachute (Rigids) and Saffola posting volume growth of 10% and ~15%,
respectively, for the quarter. Irrespective of a ~32% price hike in Parachute and
~12% in Saffola, the company managed to report impressive volume growth due
to rise in its marketing initiatives and launch of budget packs in Parachute. The
company’s market share in the branded coconut oil segment in India stood at
52.3% until June 2011. In the hair oil category, the company launched Parachute
Advanced Ayurvedic hot oil, Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic cooling oil and
Parachute Advanced Ayurvedic hair oil, all of which performed well and gained
market share during the quarter.

During the quarter, Saffola grew by ~15% yoy in volume. The brand, which was
earlier in the healthy and premium edible oil category, has been extended to
premium variety of rice under the brand Saffola Arise. It has also ventured into the
breakfast cereal category with oats under the brand name Saffola Oats. Both the
products have generated good response in the market. The company plans to
enter the healthy food segment in the near future.

July 27, 2011 2


Exhibit 2: Robust top line backed by organic and inorganic growth

1,200 35.0
1,000 30.0
800 25.0
20.0

(`cr)

(yoy %)
600
15.0
400 10.0
200 5.0
- -

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12
Top-line (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)

Source: Company, Angel research

Exhibit 3: Parachute sales volume steady.... Exhibit 4: Saffola’s growth remains strong
16 14 25 22
14
20 18 18 18
12 10 10 10 10
9 15 15
10 8 15 13 13
13
8
(%)

(%)

6 5 5 10
4
5
2
- -
1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research

Earnings steady despite margins pressure…

In terms of earnings, Marico posted growth of 15% yoy to `85cr (`74cr),
primarily due to robust top line. Earnings for 1QFY2012 are not comparable, as
the company had made a provision of excise duty during 1QFY2011 on coconut
oil sold in packs up to 200ml. The company has discounted this provision and
disclosed it as a contingent liability.

July 27, 2011 3


OPM down 148bp yoy as GM contracts by 549bp yoy

Marico again witnessed a sharp contraction in its gross margin by 549bp yoy as
copra, rice bran oil, safflower oil and HDPE prices trended high. Hence, the
company’s OPM declined by 148bp yoy. The company managed to curtail the
slippage in OPM by reducing ad spends and other expenditure.

Exhibit 5: Earnings growth moderates Exhibit 6: OPM contracts 100bp as ad spends rise
80 40.0 60.0 52.9 52.5 56.1
49.7 48.8 50.2
70 47.3 47.0
20.0 50.0 43.3
60 -
40.0
50
(20.0)
40

( %)
30.0

(%)
(` cr)

(40.0)
30 14.8 14.1
20.0 13.8 13.7 13.4 12.7 12.2 11.9
(60.0) 10.5
20
(80.0) 10.0
10
- (100.0) -
(10) (120.0)
1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12
PAT (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) OPM Gross margin


International business registers strong 26% yoy growth

International FMCG business grew strongly by 26% yoy. The business now
comprises around 23% of the group’s turnover. Revenue of the business stood at
`224cr for the quarter.

In Bangladesh, Parachute commanded a volume share of ~80%. Hair Code hair
dye established a market share of ~29%. MENA region experienced a better
quarter compared to the last quarter, though uncertainties still prevail. In Egypt,
Fiancee and Hair Code maintained its market share at ~57%. South Africa
registered double-digit growth. Caicil continues to be the market leader in the kids
hair care market. South East Asia, including Vietnam, witnessed high inflation of
15%. Code 10 and X-Men have been performing well in these markets.

July 27, 2011 4


Investment arguments
Impressive volume growth across categories /strong pricing power: We expect
Marico to post healthy volume in its core brands in FY2012E. The company
has not witnessed significant slowdown in volume growth despite steep price
hikes. Over the past few months, raw–material prices have been softening; so,
we do not expect any steep price hikes further. Although margins will not
improve significantly due to the softening of raw-material prices, but we
believe they are likely to stabilise going forward.

International business gaining momentum: International business now
comprises ~23% to the company’s top line. Marico maintains its leadership
position in different categories in different regions. The recently acquired ICP
in Vietnam is expected to contribute ~ 5% to the company’s top line.
We believe the international business will grow at a ~31% CAGR over
FY2011–13E.

Outlook and valuation

Marico’s volume growth in its key product categories has been impressive despite
the price hikes taken. We have factored in an ~18% CAGR over FY2011–13E in its
focus brands and expect the company’s international business to grow at a strong
~30% CAGR over FY2011–13E, with the recent acquisition in Vietnam contributing
~5% to the top line in FY2012E and FY2013E. At the CMP of `167, the stock is
trading at 25.x FY2013E. We believe the stock is fairly priced and, hence, we
recommend Neutral on the stock.

Key risks to our argument: 1) A sharp rise in key raw-material prices will drag
down the margins 2) Lower demand in coconut hair oil due to price hikes
3) Increased competitive intensity in the core categories, 4) International business
not gaining momentum as expected

Exhibit 7: Change in estimates
Old estimates New estimates % chg
(` cr) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E
Revenue 3,431 3,926 3,643 4,185 6.2 6.6
OPM (%) 14.2 14.5 14.2 14.6 (0) 10
EPS (`) 4.9 6.1 5.3 6.6 8.0 8.9

July 27, 2011 5


Exhibit 8: Key assumptions
Sales (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E FY11-13E
Focus Brands 1,926 2,128 2,490 3,043 3,502 18.6
Parachute (Rigids) 572 564 589 602 656 5.5
Nihar (CNO) 86 91 100 110 120 9.5
Hair Oils (Incl Nihar) 336 363 422 506 607 20.0
Saffola 334 351 415 478 549 15.0
International FMCG 427 578 718 1,060 1,244 31.6
Kaya (Incl Derma Rx from FY11) 157 182 245 287 326 15.3

Non Focus Brands 462 533 638 601 683 3.4
Total Revenue 2,388 2,661 3,128 3,643 4,185 15.7

YoY % Growth
Focus Brands 24.1 10.5 17.0 22.2 15.1
Parachute (Rigids) 7.3 (1.6) 4.5 2.1 9.0
Nihar (CNO) 16.0 6.0 10.0 10.0 9.0
Hair Oils (Incl Nihar) 33.0 8.0 16.2 20.0 20.0
Saffola 23.0 5.0 18.5 15.0 15.0
International FMCG 38.2 35.5 24.2 47.6 17.3
Kaya (Incl Derma Rx from FY11) 57.6 15.7 34.8 17.1 13.5

Non Focus Brands 30.4 15.2 19.8 (5.9) 13.6
Total Revenue 25.3 11.4 17.6 16.5 14.9
Source: Company, Angel research

July 27, 2011 6


Exhibit 9: Peer Valuation
Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR #
(` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Sales PAT
Asian Paints Neutral 30,100 3,138 - - 30.6 24.9 3.2 2.7 39.6 38.3 17.3 19.8
Britannia Accumulate 5,611 470 495 5 30.5 20.9 1.1 0.9 37.8 46.1 17.3 36.0
Colgate Reduce 13,258 975 869 (11) 30.2 25.8 5.0 4.3 111.7 108.0 14.9 12.9
Dabur Accumulate 19,235 111 119 8 26.1 22.2 3.7 3.2 46.7 43.3 21.6 21.3
GSKCHL Reduce 10,061 2,392 2,163 (10) 28.9 24.3 3.3 2.8 32.6 31.8 17.3 17.5
GCPL Accumulate 13,981 432 478 11 23.9 20.8 3.6 3.2 38.7 28.0 13.4 18.2
HUL Neutral 71,102 326 - - 27.9 24.4 3.1 2.7 74.8 74.6 12.5 17.1
ITC Neutral 155,381 201 - - 26.8 22.6 6.0 5.0 32.7 31.5 17.6 17.4
Marico Neutral 10,230 167 - - 31.4 25.2 3.0 2.6 31.5 29.5 15.7 30.8
Nestle Reduce 42,294 4,386 3,483 (21) 43.4 36.5 5.8 5.0 91.1 72.9 16.1 18.9

Exhibit 10: Angel v/s Consensus estimates
Top-line (` cr) FY2012E FY2013E EPS (`) FY2012E FY2013E
Angel estimates 3,643 4,185 Angel estimates 5.3 6.6
Consensus 3,741 4,341 Consensus 5.4 6.6
Diff (%) (2.6) (3.6) Diff (%) (1.9) -

Exhibit 11: Absolute returns of Marico vs. Sensex Exhibit 12: One-year forward P/E band
280% Sensex Marico 250 15x 18x 21x 24x

200
230%
Share Price (`)

150
180%
100
130%
50

80% -
Oct-10
Sep-10

Nov-10

Feb-11

May-11

Jun-11
Dec-10

Jan-11

Dec-05

Dec-07

Dec-09
Jul-10

Apr-11
Aug-10

Apr-05

Aug-06

Apr-07

Aug-08

Apr-09

Aug-10

Apr-11
Mar-11


Exhibit 13: One-yr forward P/E chart Exhibit 14: One-yr forward Premium v/s Sensex chart
35.0 120%
30.0 100%
25.0 80%
60%
20.0
40%
15.0 20%
10.0 0%
5.0 -20%
-40%
-
-60%
Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

Nov-09

Nov-10
Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11
Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10
Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11


July 27, 2011 7


Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Gross sales 1,907 2,390 2,662 3,129 3,645 4,187
Less: Excise duty 2 2 1 1 2 2
Net Sales 1,905 2,388 2,661 3,128 3,643 4,185
Total operating income 1,905 2,388 2,661 3,128 3,643 4,185
% chg 22.4 25.4 11.4 17.6 16.5 14.9
Total Expenditure 1,659 2,084 2,286 2,719 3,126 3,574
Cost of Materials 981 1,278 1,262 1,618 1,853 2,097
Advertising Exp 244 243 351 346 404 481
Personnel 127 166 193 230 270 314
Others 307 398 480 524 599 682
EBITDA 246 304 375 410 517 611
% chg 24.0 23.4 23.4 9.2 26.3 18.1
(% of Net Sales) 12.9 12.7 14.1 13.1 14.2 14.6
Dep.& Amortisation 31 36 60 71 79 83
EBIT 215 268 315 339 438 528
% chg 47.1 24.5 17.5 7.6 29.2 20.5
(% of Net Sales) 11.3 11.2 11.8 10.8 12.0 12.6
Interest & other Charges 31 36 26 39 45 41
Other Income 5 12 18 28 33 43
(% of PBT) 2.7 5.0 5.9 8.5 7.7 8.2
Share in profit of Associates 0 0 0 0 0 0
Recurring PBT 190 245 308 328 426 530
% chg 39.7 28.8 25.7 6.5 30.0 24.6
Prior Period & Extra Exp/(Inc.) (11) 15 10 (49) (10) 0
PBT (reported) 201 230 298 376 436 530
Tax 36 41 64 85 94 117
(% of PBT) 18.9 16.7 20.9 25.9 22.0 22.0
PAT (reported) 165 189 234 291 342 414
Add: Share of earn of asso. 0 0 0 0 0 0
Less: Minority interest (MI) 0 (0) 2 5 7 8
PAT after MI (reported) 165 189 232 286 336 406
ADJ. PAT 154 204 241 238 326 406
% chg 55.7 32.3 18.5 (1.6) 37.1 24.7
(% of Net Sales) 8.1 8.5 9.1 7.6 8.9 9.7
Basic EPS (`) 2.5 3.3 4.0 3.9 5.3 6.6
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 2.5 3.3 3.9 3.9 5.3 6.6
% chg 55.7 32.3 18.5 (1.6) 37.1 24.7

July 27, 2011 8


Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 61 61 61 61 61 61
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 254 393 593 854 1,151 1,479
Shareholders’ Funds 315 454 654 915 1,213 1,541
Minority Interest - - 13 22 22 22
Total Loans 358 374 446 772 500 455
Total Liabilities 673 828 1,112 1,709 1,734 2,017
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 315 414 468 640 696 735
Less: Acc. Depreciation 163 203 242 337 408 496
Net Block 151 210 226 304 288 239
Capital Work-in-Progress 65 58 113 65 104 147
Goodwill 126 128 146 519 524 529
Investments - 12 83 89 89 89
Deferred Tax Asset 98 64 62 30 30 30
Current Assets 528 670 897 1,220 1,284 1,682
Cash 75 90 111 213 150 358
Loans & Advances 106 130 190 218 255 293
Other 347 450 596 789 878 1,031
Current liabilities 295 314 414 518 585 699
Net Current Assets 233 355 483 703 699 983
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 673 828 1,112 1,709 1,734 2,017

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Profit before tax 201 230 298 376 436 530
Depreciation 31 36 60 71 79 83
Change in Working Capital (89) (75) (135) (111) (92) (92)
Interest / Dividend (Net) 28 30 15 23 25 11
Direct taxes paid 36 41 64 85 94 117
Others 19 2 39 49 47 17
Cash Flow from Oper. 153 182 212 323 401 432
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (155) (95) (149) (497) (101) (86)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 0 (12) (71) (9) (19) (21)
Cash Flow from Invest. (155) (107) (219) (506) (120) (108)
Issue of Equity 0 0 18 29 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 107 16 72 326 (272) (45)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 45 47 47 47 47 60
Interest / Dividend (Net) 28 30 15 23 25 11
Cash Flow from Fin. 35 (60) 28 284 (344) (117)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 32 15 21 102 (63) 208
Opening Cash balances 43 75 90 111 213 150
Closing Cash balances 75 90 111 213 150 358

July 27, 2011 9


Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 66.4 50.2 42.4 43.1 31.4 25.2
P/CEPS 54.9 42.3 33.6 28.6 24.7 20.9
P/BV 32.2 22.4 15.5 11.2 8.4 6.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7
EV/Sales 5.7 4.5 4.1 3.4 3.0 2.6
EV/EBITDA 42.7 34.6 28.2 26.3 20.4 16.9
EV / Total Assets 15.6 12.7 9.5 6.3 6.1 5.1
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 2.5 3.3 4.0 3.9 5.3 6.6
EPS (fully diluted) 2.5 3.3 3.9 3.9 5.3 6.6
Cash EPS 3.0 3.9 4.9 5.8 6.8 8.0
DPS 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1
Book Value 5.2 7.4 10.7 14.9 19.7 25.1
Returns (%)
RoCE 38.6 35.7 32.5 24.0 25.4 28.1
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 54.2 49.6 43.0 37.0 43.0 48.2
RoE 60.7 53.0 43.6 36.5 31.5 29.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.0 4.9 4.6 3.5 3.6 4.6
Inventory / Sales (days) 50 52 61 70 65 66
Receivables (days) 17 17 21 22 23 24
Payables (days) 49 42 46 48 52 53
Net working capital (days) 30 41 51 57 55 55

July 27, 2011 10


Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.

Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Marico
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors

Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

July 27, 2011 11

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