New insights into Ireland's consumer mindset as recovery (finally) beckons. More details here: http://www.salesinstitute.ie/index.php/knowledge-centre/category/presentations

1. Drivers & Drinking
The Undercover Recovery
Gerard O’Neill/September 2013
Sales Institute of Ireland © Amárach Research 2013

2. we discover the right answers
to our clients’ important questions

3. 1. Consumer Drivers
2. 2020 Scenarios
3. Stretching Strategy

4. 1. Consumer Drivers

7. Retail Category
Confidence
Correlation
Supermarkets 0.86
Furniture 0.81
Books and stationary 0.80
Hardware and DIY 0.78
ALL RETAIL SALES 0.77
Pharmacies 0.73
Pubs 0.71
Electrical Goods 0.67
Clothing and Footwear 0.66
Petrol Stations 0.63
Department Stores 0.56
Cars 0.46

13. Regions
Share of
Households
2005
Share of
Households
2010
Share of
Households
2015
Border 11.5% 12.2% 12.9%
Dublin 26.1% 30.6% 32.0%
Mid East 9.6% 9.9% 10.1%
Mid West 5.0% 6.4% 7.8%
Midlands 9.3% 6.7% 5.0%
South East 10.9% 10.1% 9.4%
South West 14.6% 16.2% 16.9%
West 12.9% 7.9% 6.0%
State 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

15. 24% have used a
smartphone to check
for a lower price online
while still in the shop
47% have
intentionally researched
a product in a shop
before buying it online
Source: Amárach Research May 2013

16. 38% have sold an
item they no longer
wanted or use to
someone else rather
than throw it away
37% have bought an
item from someone else
(not a shop) which had
been purchased from a
shop in the past
Source: Amárach Research May 2013

18. Making my
life easier
Making my
life harder
%
Relevant
Google 95% 5% 65%
Friends 90% 10% 72%
Microsoft 87% 13% 45%
Samsung 85% 15% 33%
Facebook 84% 16% 51%
Family 83% 17% 81%
Spouse/Partner 81% 19% 70%
Apple 81% 19% 32%
An Post 73% 27% 51%
Supermarket 71% 29% 75%
Colleagues 67% 33% 43%
TV Service 58% 42% 60%
Mobile Network 55% 45% 65%
Daily Newspaper 52% 48% 42%
Boss 47% 53% 43%
Petrol Station 34% 66% 62%
Electricity Provider 33% 67% 70%
Bank 24% 76% 59%
Government 9% 91% 86%
Source: Amárach Research May 2013

21. 2. 2020 Scenarios

22. By 2020, Ireland has experienced 5 years of
uninterrupted growth, driven by global
economic recovery and improving eurozone
prospects, stimulating falling unemployment
and buoyant consumer spending
By 2020, Ireland has witnessed only fitful
bursts of growth, with the economy falling
back into recession as the situation worsens
in both the eurozone and the UK, with
unemployment rising as spending fallsRecession
Recovery
E
C
O
N
O
M
Y

23. RenewalStagnation
SOCIETY
The legacy of the Celtic
Tiger’s demise is felt
through to 2020 in the
form of a continuing
personal debt crisis,
worsening emigration,
family breakdown and
rising inequality
between income groups,
regions and even
between generations
A new spirit of social
and local revival
emerges as
communities and
organisations exploit
the potential of new
and existing
technologies and
policies to improve
individual, local and
national wellbeing

24. Recession
Recovery
RenewalStagnation
Fragile Flourish
Fragment Re-Frame
Ireland 2020
35% 25%
25% 15%



25. Ireland 2020 Scenarios: Summary
SCENARIOS Fragile Fragment Flourish Re-Frame
Dimensions Recovery
+ Stagnation
Recession
+ Stagnation
Recovery
+ Renewal
Recession
+ Renewal
Winners
Over 40s,
debt free,
Dublin
Over 60s,
retired,
South Dublin
Under 40s,
entrepreneurs,
east corridor
Under 30s,
renters,
mobile
Mindset Recuperate Vigilance Network Experiment
Resources Family Legacy Equity SoLoMo
Values Look after
your own
Look after
yourself
Create your
own future
Together
is better
Outlook It will get
better
It won’t get
better
It’s our
turn now
This time is
different
Winning
Brands
Netflix
Donnybrook
Fair
Travel Dept
Ryanair
Aldi/Lidl
DoneDeal
LinkedIn
NDRC
Key Capital
AirB&B
Etsy
Guaranteed
Irish

26. 3. Stretching Strategy

27. This Time Is Different
Recession
Recovery
RenewalStagnation
Fragile Flourish
Fragment Re-Frame

29. e. gerard.oneill@amarach.com
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch