Impact of Brexit on Irish consumer behaviour one year later

1. Consumer Attitudes to Brexit
An Amárach Briefing: May 2017
Michael McLoughlin
Chief Executive
Amárach Research
May 2017/MMcL/S17-005

2. 2
Amárach Background
Independently owned Irish market research company based in Dublin.
Established in 1989 – owned by the Management Team.
About 25 staff and 250 interviewers:
– Inhouse call centre.
– Geographers; Economists; Sociologists; Psychologists; Transport Researchers.
– Very well plugged into Irish business and political leadership.
– Can field up to 350 staff in a day (Irish Rail Census).
– We are business people whose business is research.
We undertake work on our own or in partnership with others.
– Key differentiator to other agencies.
– We are head office - we make the commercial and business decisions as to who we partner with!
High profile agency – innovative.
– Claire Byrne Live (Ireland’s answer to Panorama) – we conduct weekly polling of 1,000 nationally representative – results within 3 hours.
– Behavioural Economics initiative with University College Dublin.
– Irish America research.
– ISO 9001 and 20252 – only Irish based market research company with both!.
– Dublin 2050 – recently completed planning for Dublin Chamber of commerce.
– PlanR (www.getplanr.com) – useful integrated dashboard bespoke and published information on the Irish market.
– Register for Consumer Foresight ezine on www.amarach.com
– Although Irish based we do work in many different countries - 40 in the past three years.

3. 3
Our clients include:

4. 4
Background
The United Kingdom voted for Brexit on Thursday 23rd June
2016.
On Friday 24th June 2016 Amárach Research polled our Smart
Phone panel to get their instant reaction to what had happened.
For the purposes of this CPA conference – and 11 months later –
we put similar questions on our Amárach’s May 2017 omnibus
research
– Nationally representative research of 1,000, based on age,
gender, region and social class.
– Polling took place last weekend.
– Interesting times to compare.

5. 5
We live in interesting times !
“I started thinking about this book in 2014 after Indian voters
… elected Hindu Supremacists to power, and Islamic State
became a magnet for young men and women in Western
democracies. I finished writing it during the week in 2016 in
which Britain voted to leave the European Union. It went to
the printers in the week that Donald Trump was elected
president of the United States. Each of these earthquakes
revealed fault lines that I felt had been barely noticed over the
years, running through inner lives as well as nations,
communities and families”
from the Preface by Pankaj Mishra

6. 6
Since Brexit we have had further fall in unemployment
In June 2016, seasonally adjusted
monthly unemployment was 182,300
(8.3%)
In April 2017, seasonally adjusted
monthly unemployment was 135,800
(6.2%)
The drop was 46,500. – more than the
population of Longford and just shy of
the population of Carlow!

7. 7
… and relatively good news about the Irish Economy.
Ireland’s position on Brexit recognised by the two lead protagonists.
Budgetary figures remain relatively robust.
Household debt has dropped from €204bn in 2008 to €144bn now.
National debt has dropped.
FDI continues apace.
Tangible progress made, but intangible worry remains.

8. 8
And continued high profile Foreign Direct Investment Wins…
Taoiseach opens new €150 million Google
data centre in Dublin – June 2016
LinkedIn announces 200 New Jobs at
EMEA HQ in Dublin – November 2016
Fazzi Healthcare Services to establish a healthcare
services and coding centre in Limerick, creating 300
jobs over the next five years – September 2016
Microsoft announces plans to
hire 600 People – February 2017

9. 9
But we are not through unscarred
Housing remains a huge issue.
Trust in institutions is in decline.
Destruction of traditional media patterns
continues.
British General Election.
We have moved from Blair to Corbyn; from
Obama to Trump; Kenny to ??

10. 10
… but consumer confidence remains static

11. 11
Consumer Concerns
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12. 12
There is an underlying dissatisfaction….
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2017
TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin
Enjoyment 53% 51% 55% 52% 46% 45% 60% 62% 51%
Happiness 50% 50% 50% 53% 42% 44% 51% 58% 47%
Stress 37% 32% 41% 43% 39% 38% 37% 30% 36%
Worry 29% 23% 34% 32% 25% 29% 30% 29% 31%
Anxiety 25% 21% 28% 34% 24% 23% 23% 21% 25%
Physical Pain 22% 20% 23% 19% 17% 17% 27% 27% 24%
Boredom 19% 19% 19% 34% 19% 20% 15% 12% 20%
Sadness 16% 12% 19% 22% 14% 17% 15% 14% 16%
Anger 13% 11% 15% 25% 11% 14% 10% 9% 16%
Loneliness 13% 10% 17% 22% 11% 10% 14% 12% 13%
Fear 9% 8% 9% 13% 9% 9% 7% 6% 10%
Over 55s are enjoying themselves more than any other cohort in Irish society…

13. 13
And into the middle of this comes
Brexit!

14. 14
Research Methodology - We undertook two rounds of research
First Wave of Research (2016)
On 24th June 2016 – the day after Brexit when the
aftershocks of the earthquake were still happening.
Based on our Smart phone panel
– Ideal for Instant Responses
– Completed within a 4 hour timeframe
At that stage Ireland was in shock
Cameron had just resigned and Boris was looking to
be leader
‘New Politics’ was less than a month old.
Second Wave of Research (2017)
Happened last weekend. Based on a nationally
representative sample of 1,000.
Amárach’s Standard monthly omnibus platform
Since June we have had Teresa May; Hard Brexit,
Soft Brexit; Divorce Discussions; Irish Government
Diplomatic initiatives; Single Market; Customs
Union; Boris; Assembly Elections NI etc. etc.

15. 15
And much of the analysis
through the prism of UK media!

16. 16
Sample Profile
17
22
19
16
26
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+49% 51%
47%Higher Social Grades: Lower Social Grades:
Social Class
Gender Age
Conn/Ulster
18%
Leinster
27%
Munster
28%53%
Region
Dublin
28%
%
(Base: All respondents – 1,000)

17. 17
The majority still think Ireland should remain in the EU…
15%
8%
77%
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR REMAIN
Gender
Male
Female
Age
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
76
77
80
76
74
75
78
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
81
76
76
72
81
73
% %
Don’t know Remain
Q1 As a result of Brexit do you think Ireland should remain in the European Union or leave the European Union?
Leave
(12) (78)
(10)
() 2016 Figures
(Base: All respondents – 1,000)

18. 18
More think the Irish government should boost spending to offset Brexit…
25%
30%
45%
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR YES
% %
Don’t know
Yes
Q2 Do you think the Irish government should boost spending to offset the effects of Brexit?
No
(35)
(30)
(35)
(Base: All respondents – 1,000)
53
37
33
40
48
50
52
51
38
46
45
48
43
Gender
Male
Female
Age
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
() 2016 Figures

19. 19
Irish people are less cautious about spending and borrowing in 2017…
11 9 13 19 15 12 10
3 8 14
57 57
56
53
53 53 58
64 59
55
32 33 31 28 32 35 32 33 33 31
TOTAL MALE FEMALE 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ ABC1F50+ C2DEF50-
Don’t know No Yes
(37)
(51)
(12)
Q3 Has the UK vote for Brexit made you more cautious about your own decision to spend or borrow?
% % % % % % % % % %
(Base: All respondents – 1,000)
() 2016 Figures

20. 20
Nearly half of those who are cautious are cutting back spending generally…
Q4 What has been the main effect of Brexit on our decisions about spending and borrowing?
Question change in 2017
(Base: All who are more cautious about spending – 321)
GENDER AGE REGION
SOCIAL
CLASS
Male
Female
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Dublin
Leinster
Munster
Conn/
Ulster
ABC1
C2DE
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
43 53 45 29 42 62 62 34 49 60 50 47 49
36 25 39 26 30 32 31 33 30 33 25 34 27
23 14 14 31 34 7 6 22 19 16 18 22 16
17 15 16 28 15 10 12 14 18 14 23 15 18
3 6 0 2 1 8 9 5 4 4 4 3 6
Decided to cut back on spending generally
Postponed big spending decisions e.g. buying a car,
furniture, home improvements
Postponed decision to apply for a loan
Postponed a decision about a holiday abroad
Other
48
31
19
16
4
%

21. 21
Less people have shopped in NI than thought they would in 2016…
61%
8%
31%
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR YES
Gender
Male
Female
Age
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
% %
Don’t know
Yes
Q5 Has cheaper sterling made you more likely to shop in Northern Ireland?
Q5 (2016) Will cheaper sterling make you more likely to shop in Northern Ireland?
No
(8)
(45)
(47)
(Base: All respondents - 1,000)
30
32
36
41
35
27
20
41
30
20
37
31
31
() 2016 Figures

22. 22
A year on from Brexit a third are more worried about the effects for Ireland
DEMOGRAPHICS FOR MORE WORRIED
Gender
Male
Female
Age
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55+
Region
Dublin
ROL
Munster
Conn/Ulster
Social Class
ABC1F50+
C2DEF50-
% %
Q6 Almost a year on from Brexit, has your opinion of the effects of Brexit for Ireland changed? Are you more worried, less worried or feel the same?
9
23
59
7
3
%
Much more worried
Slightly more worried
I feel the same
Slightly less worried
Much less worried
31%
(Base: All respondents - 1,000)
10%
32
31
20
33
29
34
37
36
30
30
29
33
30

23. 23
Implications
We have not as citizens absorbed the economic benefits of the turnaround that has occurred –
we were making progress in raising consumer confidence until December 2015 but that has
stalled.
We have softened out views on the impact of Brexit on our personal economic behaviour – but
the first survey took place in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit earthquake.
There is some positive news for your clients companies in Border regions
– Despite the drop in sterling, consumers at least are not flocking over the Border in the manner
that might have been anticipated last year. The reality has turned out to be somewhat more
benign in attitude terms at least.
Brexit remains a huge issue on the horizon for consumers. One third are more worried about it
than this time last year and only 10% are less worried than before.

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