Our latest look at the mood of the Irish nation, with a special focus on bank customers.

1. 1Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index
An Amárach Research Briefing
August 2016: Focus on Irish Bank

2. 2Economic Recovery Index
The Brexit Bounce?
It’s over seven years since we started
tracking the Economic Recovery Index and
the good news is that we appear to be
seeing some recovery in our index!
Last month, in our first report after Brexit we
reported a ‘surprise’ recovery in Irish
consumer sentiment about the economy – if
anything we’ve become even more bullish,
with the ERI returning to its previous record
high level of 45, last seen in January 2016.
In this month’s edition we’ve also taken a
closer look at the mood of Ireland’s bank
customers, looking at economic sentiment,
loyalty and emotional wellbeing.

3. 3Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over six years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009
to August 2016.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 10th to 19th August 2016 inclusive.
See how bad it was seven years ago:
http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/the-economic-recovery-index-august-results-2009

4. Economic Recovery Index

5. 5Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, August 2016
Despite the shock of Brexit, Irish sentiment about the economy continues to improve

6. 6Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Aug-09 53 26 20 1 0 17.0
Aug-10 36 36 24 4 0 24.0
Aug-11 52 29 18 1 0 17.3
Aug-12 42 31 25 2 0 21.7
Aug-13 38 33 26 3 0 23.7
Aug-14 16 33 38 13 0 37.2
Aug-15 15 29 35 19 2 40.8
Jul-16 13 30 32 22 3 43.1
Aug-16 11 28 33 24 4 45.0
Our ERI in August 2016 is back to its January 2016 peak

7. Consumer Impact

8. 8Economic Recovery Index
Recession, Resilience & Recovery
We started calling our Index the ‘Recovery
Index’ back in April 2009 as we wanted to
emphasise the positive and didn’t think the
recession would last so long!
Over these past seven years we have tracked
the highs and lows (and some very lows) in
terms of the mood of the nation and the
impact on consumer spending, borrowing and
saving intentions.
We’ve also seen remarkable resilience on the
part of the Irish people when it comes to
‘getting on’ with their lives, despite macro-
economic uncertainties.
In this section we look at some of the key
indicators when it comes to consumer
spending and saving intentions.

9. 9Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the worst
of the recession
in 12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to make
it through the
recession
I am optimistic in
spite of the
current economic
situation
Right now it seems
like the recession is
affecting other
people more than it
is affecting me
Aug-09 43 48 60 61
Aug-10 39 46 50 54
Aug-11 24 34 48 46
Aug-12 27 39 47 46
Aug-13 32 38 44 43
Aug-14 41 44 53 47
Aug-15 44 44 54 45
Jul-16 37 43 50 44
Aug-16 34 43 55 40
Feeling ‘optimistic’ is trending upwards strongly in recent months

10. 10Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more relaxed
about spending
money than I was a
few months ago
I am saving a lot
more than before
because of the
recession
My main financial
priority is to pay off
my debts as quickly
as possible
I would be happy
to borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Aug-09 16
Aug-10 19 26 62 31
Aug-11 14 25 57 23
Aug-12 17 28 54 25
Aug-13 18 25 55 25
Aug-14 28 27 56 27
Aug-15 28 25 58 28
Jul-16 31 28 55 29
Aug-16 33 30 56 36
Willingness to borrow is at its highest level ever

11. 11Economic Recovery Index
Willing Borrowers
Spending sentiment is still up on 3-4 months ago
33
28
292929
30
31
28
30
27
31
2727
20
21
22
24
23
24
26
23
26
23232323
22
24
26
24
28
27
23
2525
24
25
2222
27
24
25
21
24
2323
2525
24
2626
2424
2626
25
26
23
27
28
25
28
23
2626
24
28
24
2727
28
30
28
27
26
30
2626
24
29
30
29
36
OCT-09
DEC-09
FEB-10
APR-10
JUN-10
AUG-10
OCT-10
DEC-10
FEB-11
APR-11
JUN-11
AUG-11
OCT-11
DEC-11
FEB-12
APR-12
JUN-12
AUG-12
OCT-12
DEC-12
FEB-13
APR-13
JUN-13
AUG-13
OCT-13
DEC-13
FEB-14
APR-14
JUN-14
AUG-14
OCT-14
DEC-14
FEB-15
APR-15
JUN-15
AUG-15
OCT-15
DEC-15
FEB-16
APR-16
JUN-16
AUG-16
I would be happy to borrow money from a bank if I need to:
% Agree

12. Focus: Main Bank

13. 13Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment by Main Bank – I
Summary data:
Main Bank
August 2016
AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
ERI Score 44.5 43.9 48.9 43.7 46.5
% financially comfortable
enough to make it through
recession
42% 43% 39% 47% 46%
% more relaxed about
spending money than a few
months ago
34% 32% 29% 34% 42%
Net Promoter Score -28 -32 -7 -12 +5
% who have ever
recommended their main
bank
45% 42% 50% 51% 59%
% likely to switch their main
bank in next three months
11% 17% 12% 9% 23%

14. 14Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment by Main Bank – II

15. Mood of the Nation

16. 16Economic Recovery Index
The Real Mood of the Nation
When we started measuring and reporting the
Economic Recovery Index we wanted it to be
more than just another ‘confidence index’.
We therefore set out to measure the full
spectrum of emotions experienced by Irish
consumers – positive as well as negative ones
– in order to provide a unique insight into the
real ‘mood’ of the nation.
Lately some interesting but rather strange
things have emerged – our levels of stress
and anger have fallen to their lowest levels
ever, but our level of happiness is trending
downwards as well, despite the recovery.
The following charts show the trends to
August 2016, as well as looking at the
emotional wellbeing of bank customers.

17. 17Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2016
Source: Amárach Research, August 2016
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

18. 18Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to August 2016
Source: Amárach Research, August 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'10
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'11
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'12
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'13
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'14
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

19. 19Economic Recovery Index
Emotional Wellbeing by Main Bank
% experiencing each feeling ‘a lot of the day yesterday’:
Main Bank
August 2016
All
Adults
AIB
Bank of
Ireland
Ulster
Bank
Permanent
TSB
Credit
Union
Enjoyment 48% 52% 46% 49% 53% 42%
Happiness 44% 49% 43% 43% 43% 46%
Stress 30% 29% 32% 31% 29% 26%
Worry 29% 28% 30% 28% 31% 13%
Anxiety 22% 23% 24% 22% 19% 16%
Physical Pain 22% 20% 23% 22% 25% 22%
Boredom 22% 21% 28% 13% 21% 23%
Sadness 18% 15% 21% 17% 15% 21%
Loneliness 12% 12% 13% 9% 10% 16%
Anger 10% 10% 11% 13% 9% 19%
Fear 8% 7% 8% 9% 9% 10%

20. Amárach Outlook

21. 21Economic Recovery Index
Unfazed by Brexit
In our second Post-Brexit Economic
Recovery Index we have found little
evidence of a Brexit shock to Irish
consumer sentiment, either in terms of its
emotional impact or its behavioural impact.
We’ll keep tracking its progress into 2016 –
and we’ll keep you posted about Ireland’s
consumer needs.
We hope you find this edition of the
Economic Recovery Index helpful and
please do get in contact if you want to
discuss how it can be applied to your brand
planning requirements in 2016 and beyond.
For more on the ERI (including over 7 years worth of data) see:
http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

22. 22Economic Recovery Index
PlanR Database
We survey 1,000 adults every month to create the Economic Recovery Index.
We also track dozens of data series relating to customer experience, spending
levels, and switching intentions also as part of the same survey
You can view the full list (as well as
a free dashboard) here:
Contact us for subscription details
and information about special offers
and join more than two dozen other
organisations using their own
customised planning dashboard.
http://getplanr.com/planr-data

23. Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
tw. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/