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Source: Trustnet
13
Growth
Stocks
Income
Stocks
Value
Stocks
•Disciplined security analysis: Valuation, Growth (eg. Earnings and revenue
growth), Income (eg dividend yield). Thereby avoiding the pitfalls of each style and
capturing the best of all three theories for selecting stocks.
•Qualitative and Quantative: (i) determining the variables to use to identify stocks
falling in each style (eg. PEG), and then (ii) determining the range of relevant values
(eg. PEG 0.2-0.8) for each criteria (iii) weighting those criteria
Money
Management
600 Stocks
Portfolio
Circa 14 Positions
Stocks
Screen Transaction
Risk
Management
•Low Transaction Costs: Our strategy is inherently not a
high turnover strategy thereby reduces portfolio churn and
transaction costs.
•Money Management: 25% per position hard stop-loss means no position can impact portfolio
more than 1.8%.
•Risk impact of our 14 positions have same impact on portfolio downside as a GBP 200m equity
funds largest 10-14 positions.
14
Value Growth Income: USP
Downside of Traditional Styles &
Other Funds
Our USP for generating maximising risk-adjusted
returns
Value Stocks: can remain
undervalued for long periods. Can be
excessively undervalued because
business is not viable.
As our stocks are also growth stocks, they tend to be
spotted earlier by big funds. We avoid extremely strongly
valued, or strongly growing or strongly yielding stocks –as
these too can be problematic.
Income Stocks: Yields alone do not
ensure shareholder returns
Yields provide downside protection. If the stocks price
should fall, yields increase, ensuring a floor to price falls.
But growth and valuation criteria mean the company should
get selected rapidly and rise again.
Growth Stocks: Can be over-valued
and not exceed expectations causing
price declines
Our stocks are already relatively undervalued so strong
growth means expectations are usually exceeded resulting
in strong price rises.
Exits based on entry criteria We do not want to exit when our stocks are, say, fully
valued. We want them to be overvalued when we exit. So
our exits are based not on our entry criteria, but time – the
optimal time, without back-test over-fitting, we think it takes
for shareholder returns to be maximised, which based on
VGI criteria is 12 months.
15
Value Growth Income: USP
Transaction costs cause
cost drag due to large
number of portfolio holdings
Our portfolio stocks have the same downside
impact as the largest 10-20 holdings of a
GBP200m fund. We don’t need 100 holdings
and the costs inherent in them to diversify
away risk. But our concentration generates
Alpha due to our stock selection skills.
Style Drift By having a combination of styles we should
‘smooth’ the effects and downsides of any
one style.
Poor bear market
performance
Our stocks represent target ‘flight to quality’
stocks in bear markets.
16
DTZ
31/12/04 30/12/05Apr Jul Oct
DTZ Holdings PLC
Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov
Pence 3 day bars (dyn.) Ord
450 450
400 400
350 350
300 300
250 250
200 200
2000 2000Volume (Daily) - th's
ScopeShareChart (c)www.sharescope.co.uk
Growth results beat
expectations
bring undervalued company
to market attention (i) in
months not years (ii) with
room for price rises due to
low valuation
Price drops limited because yield and valuations
rise providing a protective floor to falls
17
Growth results beat
expectations
bring undervalued company
to market attention (i) in
months not years (ii) with
room for price rises due to
low valuation
Price drops limited because yield and valuations
rise providing a protective floor to falls
TPT
Value/growth rating: 9
Bullish momentum: A Grade
Overall rating
19/2/08 18/7/13'13'09 '10 '11 '12
Topps Tiles PLC
Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul
Pence 1 month bars Ord
150
100
50
150
100
50
10 10
40 40
0 0
-40 -40
80 80
40 40
80 80
40 40
MACD
Stochastic Osc.
RSI
Volume (Daily) - M's
ScopeShareChart (c)www.sharescope.co.uk
 Value/Growth: 6-12
month
 Bullish Momentum: 1-3
month
 Overall rating: Everything!
Value/Growth Rating
Income
Growth
Valuation
Online Trading Is Free and Easy – But
Few Can Do It. We Make It As Easy As
ABC through algorithmically
generated views using a whole bunch
of cool stuff.
Our Trading Technology Is Pure Rocket Science.
 Short Term Traders
 Value Investors
 FX
 CFDs
 Spreadbetters
 ADRs
 ETFs
 UK, US, Global incl China and India
 Distillation of the most important
research from Goldman Sachs, Coutts,
Rothschilds, Barlcays
 24 hours per month to prepare
35
Growth results beat
expectations
bring undervalued company
to market attention (i) in
months not years (ii) with
room for price rises due to
low valuation
Price drops limited because yield and valuations
rise providing a protective floor to falls
Examples – Straight Ups
Examples – Straight Ups
Examples
1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our
entry price because it was already undervalued
2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
Examples
1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our
entry price because it was already undervalued
2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
Examples
1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our
entry price because it was already undervalued
2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
Examples
1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our
entry price because it was already undervalued
2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
My Trading Manual For The Alpesh Patel Special Edition
http://download.sharescope.co.uk/doc/User_Guide/APSE_Guide_v1.0.pdf
 Software for Traders With My FT Winning
Methods
 My Monthly Newsletter Distilling All Your
Need To Know
 My Extensive Step-By-Step Trading Manual
 Free Updates And Access To Training
Webinars & Videos
 Customer Support For Technical and
Trading Queries
1. An Alpesh Patel trading book
2. Exclusive eBooks/eGuides ontrading and investing
3. Exclusive subscriber only webinars
4. Exclusive subscriber only videos on trading and investing
5. Access to my personal Facebook page to keep in touch
6. Access to my Twitter for social investing
7. My monthly newsletter and free access to my daily newsletters on
stocks and FX
8. Exclusive my top picks reports during the year
www.sharescope.co.uk/alpesh
1. An Alpesh Patel trading book
2. Exclusive eBooks/eGuides on trading and investing
3. Exclusive subscriber only webinars
4. Exclusive subscriber only videos on trading and investing
5. Access to my personal Facebook page to keep in touch
6. Access to my Twitter for social investing
7. My monthly newsletter and free accessto my daily newsletters on
stocks and FX
8. Exclusive my top picks reports during the year
1. An Alpesh Patel trading book
2. Exclusive eBooks/eGuides ontrading and investing
3. Exclusive subscriber only webinars
4. Exclusive subscriber only videos on trading and investing
5. Access to my personal Facebook page to keep in touch
6. Access to my Twitter for social investing
7. My monthly newsletter and free access to my daily newsletters on
stocks and FX
8. Exclusive my top picks reports during the year

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  • 13. 13 Growth Stocks Income Stocks Value Stocks •Disciplined security analysis: Valuation, Growth (eg. Earnings and revenue growth), Income (eg dividend yield). Thereby avoiding the pitfalls of each style and capturing the best of all three theories for selecting stocks. •Qualitative and Quantative: (i) determining the variables to use to identify stocks falling in each style (eg. PEG), and then (ii) determining the range of relevant values (eg. PEG 0.2-0.8) for each criteria (iii) weighting those criteria Money Management 600 Stocks Portfolio Circa 14 Positions Stocks Screen Transaction Risk Management •Low Transaction Costs: Our strategy is inherently not a high turnover strategy thereby reduces portfolio churn and transaction costs. •Money Management: 25% per position hard stop-loss means no position can impact portfolio more than 1.8%. •Risk impact of our 14 positions have same impact on portfolio downside as a GBP 200m equity funds largest 10-14 positions.
  • 14. 14 Value Growth Income: USP Downside of Traditional Styles & Other Funds Our USP for generating maximising risk-adjusted returns Value Stocks: can remain undervalued for long periods. Can be excessively undervalued because business is not viable. As our stocks are also growth stocks, they tend to be spotted earlier by big funds. We avoid extremely strongly valued, or strongly growing or strongly yielding stocks –as these too can be problematic. Income Stocks: Yields alone do not ensure shareholder returns Yields provide downside protection. If the stocks price should fall, yields increase, ensuring a floor to price falls. But growth and valuation criteria mean the company should get selected rapidly and rise again. Growth Stocks: Can be over-valued and not exceed expectations causing price declines Our stocks are already relatively undervalued so strong growth means expectations are usually exceeded resulting in strong price rises. Exits based on entry criteria We do not want to exit when our stocks are, say, fully valued. We want them to be overvalued when we exit. So our exits are based not on our entry criteria, but time – the optimal time, without back-test over-fitting, we think it takes for shareholder returns to be maximised, which based on VGI criteria is 12 months.
  • 15. 15 Value Growth Income: USP Transaction costs cause cost drag due to large number of portfolio holdings Our portfolio stocks have the same downside impact as the largest 10-20 holdings of a GBP200m fund. We don’t need 100 holdings and the costs inherent in them to diversify away risk. But our concentration generates Alpha due to our stock selection skills. Style Drift By having a combination of styles we should ‘smooth’ the effects and downsides of any one style. Poor bear market performance Our stocks represent target ‘flight to quality’ stocks in bear markets.
  • 16. 16 DTZ 31/12/04 30/12/05Apr Jul Oct DTZ Holdings PLC Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov Pence 3 day bars (dyn.) Ord 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 2000 2000Volume (Daily) - th's ScopeShareChart (c)www.sharescope.co.uk Growth results beat expectations bring undervalued company to market attention (i) in months not years (ii) with room for price rises due to low valuation Price drops limited because yield and valuations rise providing a protective floor to falls
  • 17. 17 Growth results beat expectations bring undervalued company to market attention (i) in months not years (ii) with room for price rises due to low valuation Price drops limited because yield and valuations rise providing a protective floor to falls
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  • 29. TPT Value/growth rating: 9 Bullish momentum: A Grade Overall rating 19/2/08 18/7/13'13'09 '10 '11 '12 Topps Tiles PLC Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Pence 1 month bars Ord 150 100 50 150 100 50 10 10 40 40 0 0 -40 -40 80 80 40 40 80 80 40 40 MACD Stochastic Osc. RSI Volume (Daily) - M's ScopeShareChart (c)www.sharescope.co.uk  Value/Growth: 6-12 month  Bullish Momentum: 1-3 month  Overall rating: Everything!
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  • 35. 35 Growth results beat expectations bring undervalued company to market attention (i) in months not years (ii) with room for price rises due to low valuation Price drops limited because yield and valuations rise providing a protective floor to falls
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  • 39. Examples 1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our entry price because it was already undervalued 2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
  • 40. Examples 1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our entry price because it was already undervalued 2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
  • 41. Examples 1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our entry price because it was already undervalued 2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
  • 42. Examples 1 = It can take the market time to see value, but the stock rarely falls below our entry price because it was already undervalued 2 = Market sees what we saw and price rises
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  • 53. 1. An Alpesh Patel trading book 2. Exclusive eBooks/eGuides ontrading and investing 3. Exclusive subscriber only webinars 4. Exclusive subscriber only videos on trading and investing 5. Access to my personal Facebook page to keep in touch 6. Access to my Twitter for social investing 7. My monthly newsletter and free access to my daily newsletters on stocks and FX 8. Exclusive my top picks reports during the year