Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters in a VUCA world, Introduction Workshop Part 1

Recruitment Workshop
Strategic
Workforce Forecasting & Planning
(in a VUCA world)
1-day workshop Part 1
Alexander Crépin AC@Recruitmentcoach.nl
Alexander Crépin
recruitment strategist, coach & trainer
freelance, interim recruiting & management

Strategic
(in a VUCA world)
1-day workshop
So take your time!
when watching on Slideshare

Strategic
(in a VUCA world)
If you don’t have time!
Watch the summary version
on Slideshare

SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model
4 phases
Attract AppointAssessStrategize

SAAA Corporate Recruitment Model
Strategize
Talent
Acquisition
Attract
Employer
Branding
Forecasting
Planning
Hiring
Appoint
On-
boarding
Selecting
Assess
Engaging
Talent
Pooling

Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP
Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters

Understanding WFP
1.What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP

1. WFP What ?
Workforce development tool
• Forecasting = identifying needs
(what)
• Planning = addressing needs
(how)

What ?
- Forecasting future Workforce requirements
• size, type, shape & quality
• as optimal & as realistic as possible
• over a period of one, two, or more years

What ?
- Developing pro-active Workforce Plan
• how get present workforce quantitatively &
qualitatively in place
• with an affordable investment in time & money
• to ensure business strategy execution
(future talent supply meeting forecasted & upcoming demand)

What else ?
Process to get workforce as ready as
possible to meet business challenges
• right size
• with the right profiles (diversity) & skills
• doing right things at the right time
• organised & structured in the right way
• within the budget you can afford

WFP Forecasting
• Exploring & analysing future business
development based on company’s strategy & mission
• Identifying matters impacting the future WF
• Identifying future WF requirements
quantity & quality of staff needed to deliver business
objectives and fulfil the business ambitions

WFP Forecasting 5 basic questions:
1. How many? - Quantity
2. What kind? - Quality
3. What type? - Contract/Relationship
4. Where? - Unit /Function /Location
5. When? - Timing

What ? WFP Forecasting
Forecasting process
• Art of looking into the future
Accuracy of forecast will be due part to judgment & experience
&
• Science – step-by-step “mathematical”process
Taking past history & using it to project future situation

What ? WFP Forecasting
NB
• Art ………
• Even best forecasts only a moderate effort
• Accuracy can fall rapidly
– internal & external unforeseen developments or as projection horizon
extends
– types skills become more disaggregated
– technological innovation
etc.

Workforce Forecast
=
Input for Workforce Planning

What ? Workforce Planning
Addressing forecasted requirements by
‒ developing strategies, solutions & plans for
agile, as future ready as possible workforce
‒ defining SMART HR objectives & budgets
‒ defining pathway for implementation

WFP Planning 5 basic questions:
• What are HR implications of forecast ?
• What are risks, challenges & opportunities ?
• What strategies & solutions to ensure talent
supply meets future demand ?
• What priorities & realistic to do, to invest time
& money in ?
• How ensure commitment for implementation
plans ?

WFP HR Strategies, Solutions & Plans
• Recruitment
• Retention
• Career path development
• Professional development & training
• Replace- & outplacement
• Out- & insourcing
• (Re) design organisation / reshape workforce
• Flex force (partner) network

WFP Forecasting (recruiting point of view)
Using Recruitment data, information, insights etc.
Input for better, more accurate forecasts (& plans)
• Metrics
• Staffing ratio’s
• Labour Market Intelligence
• EoC position
• Talent pool & pipelines
• Hiring scenario’s
• Budgeting

WFP Planning (recruiting point of view)
What, how, when & where to do, at what
cost ensuring:
• in the (near) future
• successful external hiring
• of required quantity & quality of talent
• at a reasonable (competitive) cost-per-hire

WFP Planning (recruiting point of view)
Planning & recruitment
• Recruiting objectives aligned to other HR initiatives
• Recruiting workload, team size, structure & level
• Update recruiting process, methods, tools & tech etc.
• Review & update EVP
• Update Recruiting Personas & target group network

What ? WFP result
• Bigger picture context for HR strategy
development, refinement & execution
• Strategic Framework, longer-term
context for critical workforce decisions
• (HR) Decision filter for new business
initiatives

1. What is WFP ?
Pathway to shape the workforce
quantitatively & qualitatively
as ready as possible for (near) future
to deliver the defined business objectives for sustainable success

Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2.Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP

2. Why WFP ?
Enable business strategy execution by
• timely, cost-effective & efficient
• supply of
• qualified talent

Why ?
WFP (defensive) to prevent having a
• Surplus of employees (to many)
• Shortfall in talent supply (not enough)
a gap in the (critical/strategic) employee pool
• Quality surplus and/or shortfall
mismatch skill type &/or level of employees & demand
Too many & Too few = Problem Not meeting productivity, performance, profitability & org. goals

Why ?
WFP (positive) to ensure success by:
• Uncovering workforce strengths for
developing future business success
• Providing guidance for optimal
workforce decisions

Why ? WFP & Pro-active HR
…… Most organisations face not so much a
challenge in getting right numbers of staff,
but rather having the people with the
right skills, competencies & experience!....
Pro-activity key to success, to anticipate future
WFP basis for pro-activity investments

Why else?
1. Reducing labor costs
2. Taking out the guess work
3. Better insight for workforce decisions
4. Realistic workforce projections
5. Deeper understanding of workforce profile

Why else (2) ?
6. Mitigating today’s & tomorrow’s dynamics
7. Workforce alignment to operating model
8. Allocation of resources more (cost) effectively
9. Timely, pro-active right sizing
10. Optimal mix of employment arrangements

Why else (3) ?
11. Focus not only on “simple” headcount & metrics
12. Improved Return-on-Talent of HR investments
13. Pro-actively train, skills at risk or becoming
outdated
14. Faster recognising & adapting than competition
to emerging challenges, risk, changes &
opportunities
15. Adapt more easily to shifting strategic priorities

Why else (4) ?
16. Have (HR) scenario’s ready to anticipate changes
17.Lower levels of stress & absence
18.Increased critical talent retention
19.Mechanism monitoring WF cost development
20.Overall: create an adaptive, more flexible & agile
organisation, ready to meet future challenges
already 20 reasons to start with WFP!

Why ? Recruiting view (1)
1. Input for recruitment strategy & hiring goals
2. Direction for short term recruiting priorities
3. More competitive in War-for-Talent
4. Target key talent groups more precisely
5. Realistic hiring expectations

Why ? Recruiting view (2)
6. Improve hire efficiency & effectiveness
7. Optimize shape, structure & size of recruiting
team
8. Recruit & refer more pro-actively
9. Target key talent groups more precisely
10.Improve make or buy (outsourcing) decisions

Why ? Business view (1)
• Maximizing workforce readiness &
• Optimizing workforce composition
• Minimizing workforce (management) costs
to
• Execute strategy & achieve objectives in an
agile and resilient manner

Why ? Business view (2)
Developing the strategic & operational
capability:
• to align workforce with business plan
• to anticipate wf developments & changes
• to respond resilient to unexpected, unfore-
seen changes in wf demands
• to overall meet emerging, future wf needs,
timely & cost effective

Why ? Sustainable success
no business plan
without a workforce (HR) plan

2. Why WFP ? HR view
Get a pretty good picture of what
realistically needs to be done
• to have the workforce
• in the (near) future
• as ready as possible
for delivering business strategy &
objectives

Questions before the break
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….

Your questions ?

Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3.When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5. How WFP

3. When WFP ?
In today’s dynamic world:
Ongoing, continuous process
Regular review, update & adjust plans
– external & internal dynamics
– changing economic & business directions
– new insights, more/better data & analytics

When ?
WFP is a strategic exercise
• not a “one & done” annual exercise
• not a short-term budgeting endeavour!

When ?
• Scope of process
• Budget (review) cycle
• Business scenario planning
• Maturity of process, data, systems &
culture
• Rolling forecast validated & updated / real
time data set, from Forecast to Nowcast

When ?
• How far into future for realist projections?
• Time horizon “VUCA” realistic
• Periodically update for accuracy & business
alignment
• Timing & dynamics of business environment

When ? WFP Time Horizons
Short term: Operational << 0,5 - 1 year
Headcount focus
Mid term: Tactical, 12 - 18 months
Annual (performance) objectives focus
Long term: Strategic, 3-5 years perspective
Creating competitive advantage

When ? Example Full WFP cycle:
• Every 3 years (depending on VUCA context)
strategic, tactical & operational planning + milestones to review outcomes
• Annually reviewed & adjusted
• Quarterly checked & updated
• Real-time monitored (on dashboard) &
taken notice of in operational execution

When ? Agile WFP
• Rolling forecasts
• Agile planning
• Data Driven, real time monitoring
• Modelling & simulating (on demand)
• Update & adjust when data indicate it

When ? (from recruiting point of view)
Data Driven Recruitment
Recruiting Data Eco-system
• Real time dashboard & insights
• Data analytics offering intelligence
• Ongoing checks on WFP status & outcomes
• Responsive to changes & trends, adjusting plans /
planning for hiring new talent

3. WFP When ?
In today’s dynamic world
WFP continuous, consistent & agile process
build-in mechanisms to monitor & up-date
for best possible business alignment & stakeholder trust & cooperation

Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4.Who in WFP
5. How WFP

4. Who ?
• Who is owner of the WFP process?
• Who are involved in the WFP
development & implementation?
• What competencies are required?

Who ? Ownership&Involvement
WFP Ownership:
Senior manager highest level organisation
WFP Involvement (Cooperation & Collaboration):
Operational managers input & implementation

Who ? WFP Involvement
Stakeholder (cross-functional)
cooperation & collaboration
major WFP success factor
applying (functional) technologies, tools & processes for valuable
insights & input for WFP forecasting & planning accuracy

Who ? WFP Involvement
• ‘Top-down’ WFP doesn’t work
• Not by HR team and/or planning office alone
• Input, support & technical skills required
(strong analytic capabilities, project management & financial expertise)
• Hybrid process, both top-down & bottum-up
• Mapping key stakeholders
• Stage of process, role, focus & expertise
• Outline all roles from start

Who ? Getting active involvement
Securing buy-in from managers by
Role clarity & clear expectations
• What’s “in it” for each stakeholder?
‒ Solve their problems, don’t just build capability!
‒ What short-term wins?
‒ What longer-term wins?
• What does it, take/require?
• Accountability for delivering

Who ? Getting active involvement
Securing buy-in from managers by
• Transparency, no (black-box) numbers game
• In-depth dialogue
• open inquiry process
• data (analytics) support
• providing time & resources ….
• incorporating WFP in perf. Mgmnt. review cycle
NB.
o Ensure confidentiality! Don’t make competition smarter than necessary!

Who ? Taking the lead
Program Manager / HR director Role:
Drive, coordinate, support & oversee the:
• WFP process development
• Implementation WFP strategies & plans
for an agile, future & change-ready organization

Who ? Cooperation (top down & bottum-up)
Board member / Director (owner)
&
Program Manager / HR director (taking lead)
&
Cross-functional & regional team(s) of line
managers & snr. specialists (input & implementation)

Who ? Stakeholder Mapping
Non-HR (cross-functional) stakeholders:
• Executives
• Middle & senior business managers
• Finance / Controlling
• Marketing / Business Intelligence
• Risk management
• External HR & Information service partners
• Business strategists

Who ? Involve when for what?
• Middle managers & professionals
– providing input at functional/local level
– implementing WFP plans at operational level
• Senior managers & specialists
– drawing together functional/local input into
organisation’s strategic context
– implementing WFP, ensuring business alignment

HR disciplines
• HR general management
• HR Data, Information & Reporting
• Training & Development
• Recruitment
• HR Compensation & Benefits
• HR Career & Mobility Services
• Diversity Management

Recruitment disciplines
• Sourcing Analyst(s)
• Employer Branding Specialist(s)
• Recruiter(s)
• Recruitment Agency Partners
• Labour Market Intelligence service providers
• Various public labour market data agencies

Who ? WFP Competencies & Skills
WFP unique blend of competencies, skills &
experience
Finding people with having both process & technological skills
can be quite difficult
Therefore:
WFP is collaborative, multi-disciplinary process
& a learning journey, to start simple

Who ? WFP Profile: Competencies
• Highly numerical and analytical
• Understanding of analytical methods & models
• Vision & Helicopter view
• Business acumen
• Planning & organising
• Pragmatic, result driven
• Adaptability
• Organisational & cultural sensitivity
• Collaborative, team oriented
• Communication verbally & in writing
• Listening, advising & influencing

4. WFP Who ?
WFP cooperative & collaborative effort
HR, business leadership & key professionals
at all levels
C&C effort with clarity about roles & contribution to be
delivered across the organisation

Understanding WFP
1. What is WFP
2. Why WFP
3. When WFP
4. Who in WFP
5.How WFP

5. How ? WFP = Challenging
WFP pretty complicated
Requiring a framework, systems, models, tools,
methods, expertise & experience
It takes time to have it (all) in place …..
It is not cost-free
and ……….

How ?
No single best way for WFP
No one-size-fits-all approach
But …… don’t start recreating the wheel!!

How ?
Traditional Barriers for WFP
• Too ambitious, in view of complexity of working
integrated, cross functional, cross regional
• Stakeholders not prepared / trained
• Time horizon too far, short term results motivate
• Data integrity, how accurate are current data?
• Forecasting lacking sufficiently projecting models
• Copying process without vision & strategy

How ?
Start Simple!!! (but aim big!)
Trying to run before you can walk doesn’t work!
Tailor to specifics of organisation & its environment
WFP will evolve with business maturity level
Institutionalizing WFP as part of overall business planning

How ? Past & Future
Our knowledge is about the past
Our decisions are about the future
(Ian Wilson)
….. In times of turbulence the greatest danger
is to act with yesterday’s logic! …..
(Peter Drucker)

How ? WFP = strategic activity
Creating framework for best possible,
future ready decisions about
• workforce shape, structure, capability & size
• anticipation of uncertain future as good and
realistic as possible

How ? WFP Enablers (1)
• Culture open for Data Driven Decision making?
• Familiar/experience with scenario development?
• Strategic direction & business strategy in place?
• WFP (HR+ Business) Data Eco System available?
• Monitoring & reporting system/tool available?
• Collaborative, integrated, cross functional?
• Common (HR) language for skills, competencies etc.?

How ? WFP Enablers (2)
• WFP integrated, company wide model in place?
• Building on existing programs/initiatives
already addressing scope of WFP process?
• Using existing resources, strategic papers, data &
expertise within & around the organisation?

How ? a Simple Start
• Step-by-step
• Pilot to learn, develop proof of concept
• Identifying added valueaddifferentlevels (see why)
• Make final business case for integrally using
WFP
• Make plan for next step(s)

How ? a Pilot to Start
Pilot options:
• Department(s)
• Location(s)
• Function(s)
• Type / level of critical job(s)
• Limited time horizon (2 years)
• Add some WF questions to budget cycle
• Using existing scenario’s & data sets

How ? WFP Model
Many organisations have a WFP model
Most models are quite similar
except for variations in terminology & the order of the processes
Again: Don’t start recreating the wheel!

How ? WFP Model
Model depends on:
• how easily be implemented & start
• ease to tailor, flexibility & scalability of model
• models being used in other business functions
like Marketing & Supply Chain Management

How ? WFP Model
Model challenge:
• Developing realistically (80-20 rule)
‒ don’t aim perfection in a dynamic world, focus on doing,
experiencing, learning step-by-step
‒ fit level of professionalism of organisation
‒ enough sophistication for type of industry

How ? WFP Model Building Blocks
• Process
• Data eco-system
• Method(s)
• Technology & Systems
• Resources, Communication & Training

How ? Process characteristics
• Continuous, ongoing, iterative
• Integrated into strategic planning cycle
• Transparent & “simple” with clear goals
• Collaborative, multi disciplinary
• Data driven insight
• Analytics focus on past to forecast
• Agile, adaptive, scalable & offering flexibility
• Cost & time effective
• Professional, efficient, consistent, practical

Traditional models:
WFP process of consecutive stages
However: in practice WFP may not be so clear-cut!
• Usually stages may not proceed at an even pace
• Speed / dynamics of business environment requires agility
• Workforce planning does not take place in isolation

Modern / upcoming models:
WFPconsistent,ongoing process,rollingforecasts
with variability for necessary flexibility
In today’s data driven business environment
• Almost real time monitoring
• Pro-active discussions about accuracy of WFP status
• Input for more, situational, ad hoc in depth analysis
• Faster & better adapt & adjust strategies & plans

How ? Process 7 steps matter most:
1. Gather
2. Analyse
3. Assess
4. Anticipate
5. Act(ion)
6. Audit
7. Adapt (action) & Adjust (plan)
to ensure providing the right structure, skills, and supply of qualified staff

Time for a break

How ? Step 1: Gather Data
• WFP is a Data Driven Process
• Without data, forecasting & planning
doesn’t make real sense
• Professional integrated data set =
key (competitive) differentiator

How ? WFP = Data Driven
also because:
• Increasing use of (HR) systems & tools
• Growing interest for human capital info
• Data becoming more available & refined
• Workforce analytics, projective modelling options &
expertise improving rapidly
• Workforce Intelligence = differentiator
• Transforming data into insight in VUCA world core
to sustainable success, evidence based decisions

How ? WFP Data Driven
Success in WFP depends on the
• detail, accuracy & reliability
of the data & information sources
• Without reliable data WFP is doomed to be a failure
• Data governance is crucial for WFP as well

How ? Model: Process & Data
Process step 1:
Gather Data & Information
Model building block 2:
Data eco-system

Data eco-system
• Identified useful / relevant data sources
• Consolidating
• Developing uniform & consistent data set
• Monitoring & updating options
• Integrated, transparent, up-to-date & reliable

WFP Data eco-system
WFP data eco-system development
• establishing corporate wide common (HR) data set
• consolidate disparate data sources, connecting local
& functional HR, Finance, Marketing etc. systems
• developing or revamping HRIS Systems
• requesting & gathering reliable, up-to-date data
• analysing & understanding data relationships
• identifying patterns & developing analytical models
• deciding what, how & when to monitor & report

HR Data eco-system Maturity
- Little to no HR
reporting capability
- Data in disparate
systems and/or hard
to access
- If available,
reporting is ad hoc
and is a lengthy
process
- Little overall insight
into org structure
- One single data
source or data
warehouse for HR
data
- Reporting still may
be difficult
- Report users may
still be skeptical of
reporting results
- Standardization of
roles & org charts
available
- HR data available,
standardized across
the organization
- Report users (HR
and/or LOB leaders)
can access reports
quickly and easily
- Reports do a good
job with HR
processes and
general workforce
measures
- Global tool(s) for
org modeling;
addition of role
variables
/concepts: costs,
potential, gaps,
compression
- Measures beyond HR
measures begin to
be introduced
- Analytics are rolled
out beyond just HR
- Cross HR integration
is possible (i.e.
looking at turnover
by performance)
- Organization
delivery modeling
across company to
look at different
delivery and
structure scenarios
- Full integration
between operations
data, financial data
and HR/Talent data
- LOB Leaders use
analytics provided
by HR to make
business decisions
- Workforce Planning
(predictive
analytics) drives
the talent
management
process
- Optimization of org
structure and who
delivers work; full
alignment with
business strategy to
optimize talent
decisions
Source: NakisaHCM

WFP Data eco-system Basic Data Set
Job Characteristics
• Salary rates
• Hours of work
• Overtime hours
• Hours worked by permanent &
contract workers
• Leave liabilities
• Employment status (perm.,
temp, casual, contract)
• Occupations
• Qualifications
• Skills / competencies
• Training
• Location
Workforce Seize & Location
• Number of FTE’s
• Number of short term staff
(temp., casual, contract)
• Staff per location
Demographics
• Age profile
• Gender profile
• Other Diversity / EEO indicators
• Grades / classifications of staff
• Nationalities
• Length of service & Retention data
• Turnover & retirement data
• Promotion data
• New hire data
• New hire profiles
• Absenteeism patterns

How ? WFP Gather data (input)
Several kinds of input:
• Data / facts / info, now having & knowing
• Data & info external, collecting & buying
• Opinions, questionnaires data
• Assumptions
• Uncertainties that can be quantified

WFP input: Internal data references
• Scenario, strategic planning expertise, system(s) & culture
• Corporate objectives, pace & direction
• Financial position, production & marketing objectives
• Workforce demographics (age distribution, retirement,
diversity, geography - location )
• Internal mobility (cross divisional, regional & functional)
• Retention / turnover rates
• Staff remuneration, performance management
• Strength / quality of the current labour supply
• Existing organisational shape & structure
• New skills & experience required for changes in business
• Mobility & employability culture, HRD, talent investment

WFP input: External data references
• Demand for the firm’s products & services
• Seasonal peaks in market demand
• Labour market trends, scarcity of (STEM) talent
• Economic conditions, level of (un)employment
• Technology & Tools developments, innovation
• Social & political change (e.g. demographic factors)
• Legislation (minimum wage, diversity, retirement)
• Various specific local factors
• Competition offering better pay terms

WFP input: External data references
Identifying for future workforce relevant
• critical success factors
• factors with direct impact on forecast result
• unknowns / unclear factors
• opportunities
• threats
• risks

WFP input: Environment scan example
Summary of trends & policy implications on
workforce in UK NHS
In developing a WFP taking into account:
• An ageing workforce
• Choice and personalised care
• Promoting workforce diversity
• Delivering efficiency requirements
• Employment legislation – e.g. age discrimination
• Major workforce redesign, reducing service input from doctors and
encouraging health professionals to take on new roles
• Feminisation of medicine – flexible training/career breaks
• Increasing use of technology

WFP input: External scan example
Summary (2)
In developing a WFP, NHS will have to take into account:
• NH improvement policies driving new roles for staff, increasing
flexibility & communication between primary & secondary care
• Plurality of provision – increasing numbers of NHS staff working in or
alongside private sector staff (staff secondments)
• Reductions in waiting times
• Speciality skills shortages
• Staff retention – identifying reasons for exit, promoting people
management policies
• Workforce re-design, promoting flexibility across organisations
• Work-life balance – part-time and flexible working

WFP Data eco-system External Data
Which sources to use?
For example this kind of overviews:

How ? WFP Gather data (input)
From a recruiting point of view
Data Driven Hiring key in modern recruitment
Internet is the Talent Pool
• Labour market data
• Identification & monitoring of data about sources
• Target group data specifics
• Developing Data Driven Recruitment Personas
• Analysing Recruitment metrics & KPI’s for insight

Beginning simple:
• Use human capital data already (easily)
available today
• Analyse & measure what matters!
• Scan corporate wide uniformity in data (set) no apples & pears!

How ? Step 2: Analytics
Challenge:
Synthesising different sources of data to
• analyse & monitor current situation
• analyse & create a pro-active, data-driven
insight on the (near) future workforce needs
&
• Developing supporting analytical model(s)
• Automating data analytics
• Developing collaborative, data driven process

How ? From data to insight
Data doesn’t narrow your choices
It opens your mind
— Venetia Taylor, Google, June 2015

How ? Continuous, up-to-date insight
Workforce Intelligence (culture)
• understanding workforce dynamics
• real time insight
• rolling forecast
Moving from transactional, short term driven operations, to data driven, pro-
active, more strategic execution of HR & Business strategy

How ? From WFP data to insight
1 Data People statistics
2 Information Annual HR Plan
3 Insight HR analytics
4 Forecasts Workforce planning
5 Intelligence Rolling forecast & planning

How ? Data Driven challenges (1)
Understanding data relationships
Example:
McDonald's Restaurants Northern Europe and
researchers from Manchester Metropolitan
University found that stores with two or more
members of staff over the age of 50 were 20%
more profitable than others!
So what could this mean for WFP?.

Identifying trends & patterns
By examining trends of past the effect of the
same activity on organization’s future, could be
more or less predicted, when assuming that
these patterns will remain stable ……
identify patterns: hiring-, retirement-, productivity-, turnover etc.

Identifying factors with direct, measurable
impact on forecasted workforce profile
for
• Model development
• Developing metrics, ratio’s & algorithms
• Simulation
• Real time monitoring priorities

Developing ability
• to translate current & future business models
into critical knowledge, technical skills &
competencies ratios / parameters
• to identify what is critical in short, medium &
long term

How ? Typical WFP Data, Example
WF mobility, attrition / turn over data:
Planned
Needs for personnel arising from planned changes in organization & retirement
Forecasted
Those movements in personnel to be projected on basis of strategy & ambition,
plans & (labour) market trends
Unexpected
Resignation, deaths, accidents, illness, customer problems, changed market
conditions that give rise to unexpected needs

How ? Attrition Analysis sheet (examples)

How ?
Future
Present
Past
• No data, projections
• Uncertain & Ambiguous
• Assumptions
• Scenarios
• Moving & Changing
• Complex
• Data overload
• Action
• Certain, facts
• Lot of data
• Review, evaluation
• Patterns

How ?
Future
Present
Past
Current WF supply
Future WF supply
Forecast WF demand
• Facts
• Patterns
• Parameters
• Demographics
• HR Policies
• HR Programs
Exploring
• Trends
• Scenarios
• Assumptions
Analysing & projecting
• Analytics

How ? Analysing WF supply
1. Current workforce supply (quantity & quality) as
starting point for WFP
2. Development of current WF to future
workforce supply
– demographics, careers & mobility etc.
– past trends, ratio’s, metrics, policies & programs
– understanding where workforce is headed & reason why
3. Workforce forecast = future demand

How ? Analytics for WF profile
1. Understanding current WF profile data
• Demographics & diversity
• Job families / categories / levels / FTE’s
• Location
• Career progression & development paths
• Loyalty, years of employment, retention
• Strengths, weaknesses, core competencies, key
skills & expertise

How ? Analytics for WF profile
Useful analyses include:
• Turnover rates
• Retention rates
• Key / Top Performers
• Separation rates
• Mobility within the organisation
• Vacancy patterns
• Retirement patterns
• Promotion patterns
• Workload patterns
• Leave patterns (sick, parental etc.)
• Time taken to recruit
• Skills shortage & oversupply
• Achievement of EEO targets
• Wages & salary costs
• Turnover costs
• Exit interviews findings
• Employee perception survey
• Customer service surveys

How ? Analysing Profile Development
2. Understanding How current workforce could
look like in 1,2,3,4 or 5 years time?
• Historical HR trends, policies, programs & demographics
• Payroll budget cap
• Promotion & demotion rates
• Attrition, exit rates
• Retirement eligibility
• Career paths
• Succession plans & internal transfers
• Hiring rates
• Performance rate development
• Etc.

How ? Analysing WF supply
1. Current workforce supply starting point for WFP
2. Development of current WF workforce supply
3. Workforce forecast = future demand

How ? Analysing Future WF Demand
3. Understanding external findings
• What are workforce implications & issues?
• Translate impact to required competencies, skills,
numbers, locations, times, job structure, etc.
• Usually not about “exact” numbers, but offering an
order of magnitude of specific talent segments

How ? Analysing Future WF Demand
3. Understanding exploration findings
• How might existing business processes be enhanced or changed and
what effect will that have on workforce needs?
• Which changes will result in an increase or decease of work in any
function and region?
• Will any functions be consolidated, simplified, or made more
complex?
• Which work functions will remain unchanged?
• Which work functions may be discontinued?
• What are the potential new work functions?
• How will divisions, work units, and jobs be redesigned?

How ? Analysing for future Profiles
3. Developing future workforce profile
How will ideal or desired workforce look like with regard to the
most likely to happen business scenario(s)?
• Demographics & diversity
• Job families / categories / levels / FTE’s
• Location
• Skills, core competencies and key expertise
• Shape, structure & size
Result:

Questions before the lunch
1. ……….
2. …………
3. …………...
4. ……………….
5. ………………….

Lunch Time

NEXT
Strategic
Part 2
Alexander Crépin
recruitment strategist, coach & trainer
freelance, interim recruiting & management

Thank You
Thank you

Also on by Alexander

End!

Strategic Workforce Forecasting & Planning for Recruiters in a VUCA world, Introduction Workshop Part 1

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