Presentation 3G
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3G / 4G in Ukraine
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Presentation 3G
- 1. 3G / 4G / XG IN UKRAINE
- 2. 3G in Ukraine 2 − How much have we lost? − How much can we win? On February 23, the National Commission for State Regulation of Communications and Information sold licenses in 3G standard. The winners of the tender were three major mobile operators.
- 3. OUTLINE 1. Main questions 2. Evolution of mobile technologies − Where is Ukraine? 3. The impact of broadband on the economy − Contribution to GDP − Contribution to employment 4. Global trends 2020 5. New products & services 6. Internet providers 3
- 4. Evolution of Mobile Technologies 4 Mln subs 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 3G 2G 4G LTE ??? Source: GSMA Intelligence, OpenSignal.com March 2015: 124 countries with LTE
- 5. Evolution of mobile technologies 5 Weak Signal Strong Signal Result 2015 Source: OpenSignal.com Although UkrTelecom obtained 3G license in 2005, it seems reluctant to develop the new standard from zero.
- 6. 4G Speed VS Other Technologies 6 3 7 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 USA Saudi Arabia Spain Finland Argentina UK JapanTaiwanPoland Australia 4,4 0,2 1,5 9,3 2G WiFi3GAverage 4G LTE Average download speed (Mbps) Source: OpenSignal. State of LTE report (March, 2015)
- 7. What Have We Lost? 7 Benefits of high speed broadband: 1. Increased economic growth − Direct investments in infrastructure − Productivity gains in firms − Higher household income 2. Job creation − Direct jobs − Indirect jobs − Induced jobs 3. Public welfare improvements Source: Pellegrino and Klemann (2012) We have lost much more than a possibility to watch funny videos on YouTube
- 8. Contribution to GDP 8 Kohman 2011 Qiang 2009 ITU Universe 2011 Czernich 2011 Kongaut 2014 Deloitte 2012 Every time a country`s broadband speed doubles, the country`s GDP rises 0.3 per cent Increasing the broadband penetration by 10% stimulates GDP per capita by 0.9-1.5% A 10% increase in mobile penetration increases TFP in the long run by 4.2 percentage points 10% increase in broadband penetration is yielded an additional 1.38% in GDP growth Impact on GDP varies widely, from 0.25% (OECD) to 1.38% for every increase in 10% of penetration. Broadband speed has greater impact in countries with lower income than countries with higher income
- 9. Contribution to GDP. Ukraine 9 2013 3 900 ??? 2014 +2.87% 2012 3 873 2011 3 575 2010 2 974 2009 2 545 2008 3 891 2007 3 069 2006 2 303 2005 1 829 Source: World Bank, GSMA Global Mobile Economy 2015 Author`s calculations GDP per Capita (current US$) Total Impact 2.87% Productivity Improvement 1.62% General Economy 0.22% Related Industries 0.29% Mobile Operators 0.74% Contribution to GDP If 3G licenses had been provided in 2005, GDP per capita in Ukraine could increase by additional ~110 US$ per year by 2013.
- 10. Contribution to Employment 10 Direct Jobs • Telecommunications technicians • Construction workers • Civil engineers Indirect Jobs • Electrical equipment workers • Metal products workers • Professional services Induced Jobs • Consumer durables • Retail trade • Consumer services Externalities • Brand new businesses Employment generated in the short term by deployment of network facilities Employment generated by indirect spending (or businesses buying and selling to each other in support of direct spending) Employment generated by household spending based on the income earned from the direct and indirect effects Employment generated by new applications and services, new forms of commerce and financial intermediation etc. Source: Katz, The impact of the broadband on the economy. McKinsey global SME survey + 0.81 + 1.78 + ~3.50 For every one job destroyed by the Internet 2.6 are created!
- 11. Contribution to Employment. Ukraine 11 Job creation in Ukraine 20162015 2017 8 018 10 289 20 774 2018 25 584 Direct Indirect Induced Brand new TOTAL = 63 616 United States Switzerland United Kingdom Source: Katz, The impact of the broadband on the economy. Author`s calculations Creation of 140k jobs per year over ten years. (180k jobs per year by another estimation) Total jobs: 114,000 jobs over four years (including 83,000 direct and 31,000 indirect) Total jobs: 211,000 jobs over four years (including 75,500 direct and 134,500 indirect and induced) Wireless advances creates jobs even in recession!
- 12. Public Welfare Improvements 12 Entertainment Online Education Banking Services Health Care Open Public Services M-Payments
- 13. 13 Investments in Broadband Higher quality of life Positive impact on Economy
- 14. Global Trends 14
- 15. Global Market 2020 15 Unique subscribers, bln 4.6 3.6 2014 2020 3G / 4G connections 20202014 69% 39% Smartphones, bln 2.6 2014 2020 5.9 Brand new services ? 2014 2020 ? M-Commerce, US$ bln 904 204 2014 2020 Wearables, mln 43 20202014 365 Source: GSMA Intelligence
- 16. Global Trends 16 mAgriculture Green Power for Mobile Entertainment Online Education mBanking mHealth Care mGovernment M-Payments
- 17. Potential 5G Cases 17 Source: GSMA Intelligence - Fixed point - Nomadic - On the go Services that could be enabled by 5G
- 18. 18 “Five years ago, most content on Facebook was text. Now it’s photos. Fast forward five years and it will be video. After that, it will be immersive content like virtual reality.”
- 19. Connecting Everything 19 Source: http://www.janua.fr/security-iot-internet-things/ The Internet of Things – embedding sensors and actuators in machines and other physical objects to bring them into the single connected world.
- 20. Dozens of new services & products are yet to come 20
- 22. 22 Google Project Loon Source: Google Project Loon Loon balloons float in the atmosphere, twice as high as airplanes and weather. People will be able to connect to the Internet directly from their phones and other LTE-enabled devices.
- 23. 23 Google Titan
- 24. 24 Facebook The aircraft will be powered by solar panels on its wings and it will be able to stay at altitudes of more than 60,000 feet for months at a time. Aircraft will help to connect the 10% of the world's population that live in remote communities without existing internet infrastructure.
- 25. 25 Low-Orbit Internet Satellites Elon Musk 4,025 Satellites 1,100 Altitude ~2020 Launch Richard Branson 2,400 Satellites 1,200 Altitude 2017 Launch
- 26. CONCLUSIONS 1. The investments in broadband and new services enabled by 3G network will bring substantial economic and social benefits to Ukraine 2. Ukraine will bridge the gap with the developed countries and sooner or later will be able to move on par with them. 26
- 27. Thank You ! 27
Notas do Editor
- Japan 2002 South Korea 2002 UK, Italy 2003 South Australia 2002 Mauritius 2004 Morocco 2006 Tanzania 2007 Phillippines 2008 Turkey 2009 China 2009 India 2008 South Africa 2004 Kenya 2007 Canada 2005 USA 2002
- Benefits on economy • Direct job and act creation through the broadband development project • Externalities at both business and household level (productivity gains in firms and higher household incomes in residential adoption) • Benefits in the form of consumer surplus • Benefits through other sectors such as access to the public, entertainment, education, health care and banking services
- The aircraft will have a wingspan greater than a Boeing 737 but will weigh less than a car. It will be powered by solar panels on its wings and it will be able to stay at altitudes of more than 60,000 feet for months at a time.
- http://www.oneweb.net/ http://www.theverge.com/2015/1/15/7551987/richard-branson-internet-satellites-virgin Providing Internet access from orbiting satellites “We see it as a long-term revenue source for SpaceX to be able to fund a city on Mars”