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Random Walk Systems on the Complete Graph

          T. Kurtz1          E. Lebensztayn2              A. Leichsenring 2              F. Machado 2
                                           1 Department  of Mathematics
                                              University of Wisconsin
                                     2 Institutode Matemática e Estatística
                                            Universidade de São Paulo

                                                March 15, 2007




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            1 / 21
Introduction



  Introduction

   Version of the Frog Model on the complete graph
          Let Kn be the complete graph with n vertices and L ≥ 1 a xed integer
          Initially: a xed number of particles at each vertex of Kn
          Some of them are active, the others inactive
          Active particles:
                  realize continuous time random walk through the vertices of Kn
                  wait a rate 1 exponential time and jump uniformly to the vertices of Kn
                  have L lives each
                    - each particle loses 1 life when it jumps to a visited vertex
                    - dies when it reaches 0 (zero) lives
          Inactive particles: become active when some active particle jumps over
          the vertex where they are placed


Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            2 / 21
Introduction




   For a realization of the Frog Model on Kn , consider
          V n (t ):   Number of visited vertices at time t ,
          An (t ), i = 1, . . . , L: Number of active particles with i lives at time t .
           i
   Initial conditions:
                 Vn (0)      = ρn n, with ρn n integer and such that 0  ρn  1,
                                0           0                                   0                             (1)
                 An (0)
                  i          = ρn n, for i = 1, . . . , L, with ρn n integer and such
                                i                                i                                            (2)
                                                             L
                                  that ρn ≥ 0 and
                                        i                        ρn  0.
                                                                  i
                                                         i =1

   γ n := inf {t :           L An (t ) = 0}, the rst time there are no active particles.
                             i =1 i
   We look for V n ) , the proportion of visited vertices at the end of the
                 (γ      n    n

   process. We call it the cover of the process.


Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            3 / 21
Introduction




        Figure: Simulation for         z 1000 (t ) starting with 1 active particle (with L = 2).


Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            4 / 21
Introduction




                    Z
                         n (t ) = (   V
                                          n (t ),       n
                                                     A1 (t )   ,    n
                                                                   A2 (t )   , ... ,      n
                                                                                       AL (t )   )

   is a Markov chain in ZL+1 governed by jump intensities
   qln (Z ), Z , l ∈ ZL+1 , representing the transition rates from state Z to
   Z + l . We observe that qln (Z ) = 0 for l outside Λ, the set of the possible
   transitions. Note that Λ = {l0 , l1 , . . . , lL }, where
                    l0     = (1, 0, 0, . . . , 0, 1), → a particle jumps to an unvisited vertex
                    l1     = (0, −1, 0, . . . , 0, 0), → death of a particle
                    lj     = (0, . . . , 0, 1 , −1 , . . . , 0),                  j   = 2, . . . , L.
                                           An−1 Aj n
                                            j
                             → a particle with j lives misses one life



Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            5 / 21
Introduction




   If the process is in the state Z = (V , A1 , . . . , AL ) the rates qln (Z ) have the
   following form:

                                                                          L
                                     n                       V
                                   ql0 (Z )    = (1 −                )          Ai
                                                                 n
                                                                         i =1
                                    n                 V
                                   ql (Z ) =
                                     i
                                                          Ai ,       i   = 1, . . . , L,
                                                      n

   and qln (Z ) = 0 for l outside Λ.




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            6 / 21
Introduction




   Then the distribution of Z n (t ) is determined by


            P   (Z n (t + h) = Z + l |Z n (t ) = Z ) = hqln (Z ) + o (h), l = 0
                        n               n
                  P(Z (t + h ) = Z |Z (t ) = Z ) = 1 −
                                                                   n
                                                                 hql (Z ) + o (h).
                                                              l
   Now, let Y0 , Y1 , . . . , YL be independet standard Poisson processes dened
   for each of the transitions in Λ. Then Z n (t ) can be written as
                                                                         t
                           Z
                               n (t ) = Z n (0) +            lYl (
                                                                              n
                                                                             ql (Z
                                                                                     n (s ))ds ).
                                                      l ∈Λ           0

   Given Z n (t ) = Z , the probability that there will be a jump in
         t
   Yl ( 0 qln (Z n (s ))ds ) during (t , t + h) is hqln (Z ) + o (h) since the integrand
   is equal to qln (Z ) until the rst jump after t .

Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            7 / 21
Introduction




   Let
                  = Z n(t ) = (v n (t ), a1 (t ), a2 (t ), . . . , aln (t )), and
                     n
          z n (t )                        n        n
          an (t ) =
                       L an (t ).
                       i =1 i

                            v n (0)= ρn ∈ [0, 1],
                                      0
   Remeber that
                            ai (0) = ρn  0, i = 1, . . . , L.
                             n
                                      i

   Then z n (t ) is a Markov chain with state space { n z : z ∈ ZL+1 } and
                                                      1

   satises

                                                              l
                                                                               t
                      z
                          n (t ) =      z
                                            n (0) +               Yl   n           fl (Z
                                                                                           n (s ))ds .        (3)
                                                              n            0
                                                      l ∈Λ



Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March            8 / 21
Introduction




   In other words:
                                                   t
        v n (t ) = ρn + Y0 n                           (1 − v n (s ))an (s )ds
                               1
                    0                                                            ,
                       n                       0
                                                        t                                           t
        ain (t ) = ρn + Yi +1 n           v n (s )ain+1 (s )ds − Yi n                                   v n (s )ain (s )ds ,
                               1                                                     1
                     i
                         n              0                       n                               0
                    i = 1, . . . , L − 1,
                                                   t                                                        t
        aL (t ) = ρn + Y0 n
         n
                                                       (1 − v n (s ))an (s )ds                                  v n (s )ain (s )ds .
                                1                                                        1
                   L                                                             −           YL n
                      n                        0                                         n              0

                          L
   where    an (s ) =           n
                          i =1 ai (s )   and   Yi       is the Poisson process associated to the vector                         li .




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph             March                                     9 / 21
Deterministic Limit



  Deterministic Limit

   Dene the drift function F by F (z ) =                            l ∈Λ lfl (z ), for   z   ∈ RL+1 . Let
                                                              t
                                    z (t )   = z0 +               F (z (s ))ds .                              (4)
                                                         0

   Then, the following theorem guarantees the convergence of z n (t ) to the
   deterministic model z (t ).
   Theorem
   Suppose limn→∞ z n (0) = z0 and that for each compact K ∈ RL+1 there is
   a constant MK  0 such that |F (x ) − F (y )| ≤ MK |x − y | for all x , y ∈ K.
   Then limn→∞ sups ≤t |z n (s ) − z (s )|              =0         almost surely, where z (t ) is the
   unique solution to (4).




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             10 / 21
Deterministic Limit




   Supposing that (1) and (2) hold with ρn → ρi , i = 0, . . . , L, it results that
                                          i
   the corresponing deterministic model for z n (t ) is governed by

                                            t
              v (t )    = ρ0 +                  (1 − v (s ))a(s )ds ,
                                        0
                                            t
             ai (t )    = ρi +                  v (s )(ai +1 (s ) − ai (s ))ds , i   = 1, . . . , L − 1,      (5)
                                        0
                                            t
             aL (t )    = ρL +                  (1 − v (s ))a(s ) − v (s )aL (s )ds ,
                                        0

   where a(s ) =            L a (s ).
                            i =1 i




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             11 / 21
Deterministic Limit


   For the one-particle-per-site initial conguration, for example, the
   corresponding initial conditions on the deterministic model are
                                      ρ0 = ρ 1 = . . . = ρL = 0 .                                             (6)
   Since the solution of (5)-(6) is the limit of the proportions as n → ∞ in
   any bounded time interval [0, T ], we have that for any t ≥ 0,

                 limn→∞ v
                               n (t ) = 0,      limn→∞ ai (t )
                                                              n     = 0, ∀i = 1, . . . , L, a.s.

          Don't say much about the behaviour of the process for large values of
          n;
          γ n is going to innity witn n and the limit equations are valid only for
          bounded intervals;
          We are interested in the state where the process is absorbed.
   ⇒ We can          speed up        the process without aecting where it hits the
   boundary.
Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             12 / 21
Time Change



  Time Change


   Make the time change dened by
                                                                 τ
                                   τ n (t ) = inf {τ :               a
                                                                         n (s )ds = t },
                                                             0
   and let us observe the process at time τ n (t ), dening z n (t ) = z n (τn (t )).
                                                            ˜


   Proposition
   This change of scale speeds up the process in such a way that the times
   between two jumps of the process are always rate n exponentials.




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             13 / 21
Time Change




   The speeded system z n (t ) = z n (τn (t )) is described by the following
                      ˜
   equations:

                                          1                  t
     v n (t ) = v n (τ (t ))
     ˜                         =   ρn +       Y0 n               (1 − v n (s ))ds
                                                                      ˜                     ,
                                    0
                                          n              0
                                                         t                  ˜in+1 (s )
                                                                            a                       1              t              ˜in (s )
                                                                                                                                  a
     ˜in (t ) = ain (τ (t ))
     a                         =   ρ n + Yi + 1
                                     i                       v n (s )
                                                             ˜                         ds       −       Yi n           v n (s )
                                                                                                                       ˜                   ds   ,
                                                     0                       ˜n (s )
                                                                             a                      n          0                  ˜n (s )
                                                                                                                                  a
                                   i = 1, . . . , L − 1,
                                          1                  t                                  1                  t           ˜L (s )
                                                                                                                               an
     ˜L (t ) = aL (τ (t ))
     an         n              =   ρn +
                                    L         Y0 n               (1 − v n (s ))ds
                                                                      ˜                     −       YL n               v n (s )
                                                                                                                       ˜               ds ,
                                          n              0                                      n              0               ˜n (s )
                                                                                                                               a
                                            1                          t                                1                 t         ˜n (s )
                                                                                                                                    a
     ˜n (t ) = an (τ (t ))
     a                         =        ρn + Y0
                                         i                   n             (1 − v n (s ))ds
                                                                                ˜                   −       Y1 n            v n (s ) 1 ds
                                                                                                                            ˜                         .
                                    i
                                            n                      0                                    n               0           ˜n (s )
                                                                                                                                    a




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March                                                   14 / 21
Time Change




   The time-changed system has nontrivial limit,

                                                 t
                   v (t )    = ρ0 +                  (1 − v (s ))ds ,
                                             0
                                                 t              ai +1 (s )
                                                                                                  t            ai (s )
                  ai (t )    = ρi +                  v (s )                  ds   −                   v (s )             ds ,
                                             0                    a(s )                       0                a(s )
                             = 1, . . . , L − 1,
                                   i                                                                                                (7)
                                     t                                                    t                aL (s )
                  aL (t ) = ρL +       (1 − v (s ))ds −                                       v (s )                 ds ,
                                             0                                        0                     a(s )
                                                           t                                          t            a1 (s )
                   a(t )     =             ρi +                (1 − v (s ))ds −                           v (s )             ds ,
                                                       0                                          0                a(s )
                                       i
   dened until γ = inf {t : a(t ) = 0}.
                ˜



Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March                                   15 / 21
Convergence of   v n (γ n )

  Convergence of v n (γ n )

   Let γ n = inf {t : ˜n (t ) = 0}. We are looking for v = limn→ v n (γ n ), which
        ˜             a
   is the same as the limit of v n (˜ n ).
                                  ˜ γ


   Theorem
   The limit cover v of the process is given by



     v = 1 − (1 − ρ0 ) exp {−LambertW (−cρ0 ,L exp{−cρ0 ,L − ρ}) − cρ0 ,L − ρ} ,

                     = (1 − ρ0 )(L + 1)                            L iρ .
   where cρ0 ,L                                   and       ρ=     i =1 i

   Obs.     The LambertW function is the inverse of the function x → xe x .

Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             16 / 21
Convergence of   v n (γ n )




   Proof.  We prove the convergence of v n (γ n ) through proving the
   convergence of γ n .
                   ˜


   Theorem
   γn
   ˜    converges almost surely to the solution of



                              γ − ρ = (L + 1)(1 − e −γ )(1 − ρ0 ).                                            (8)




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             17 / 21
Convergence of   v n (γ n )

   As ilustration we return to the case ρ0 = ρ = 0 and plot γ and v for some
                                                            ˜
   values of L.




                  Figure: γ (L)
                          ˜                                                          Figure: v (L)
   An interesting fact is that for these values of ρ0 and ρ, when L = 1 the limit
   cover is approximately 0, 798612, and for all nit L it is less than 1.
Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             18 / 21
Number of Jumps of the Model



  Number of Jumps of the Model


   From the convergence of γ n results the following corolary:
                           ˜


   Corolary
   Let Nn be the total number of jumps the original model makes until the
   end of the process. Then,

                                                       E  (Nn )
                                                 lim              = γ.
                                                                    ˜
                                               n→∞         n




Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             19 / 21
Central Limit Theorem



  Central Limit Theorem

   We can also derive a central limit theorem for vn (γ n ) for the case
   ρ0 = ρ = 0:


   Theorem
                                 √
                                     n(vn (γ
                                               n ) − v ) n→∞ N (0, σ 2 ),
                                                          ⇒

   with

                                                          γeγ
                                                          ˜ ˜
                                            σ2 =                    .
                                                     (L + 1)(˜ − L)
                                                             γ



Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             20 / 21
Central Limit Theorem


   For L = 2,      σ2
                 is approximately 0.06815. Bellow we present the histogram of
   10000 simulations of the chain for this case with n = 1000. The curve in red is
   the normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 0.06815.




                                                                √
Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007
                                        Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph            March             21 / 21

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Randomwalksystems

  • 1. Random Walk Systems on the Complete Graph T. Kurtz1 E. Lebensztayn2 A. Leichsenring 2 F. Machado 2 1 Department of Mathematics University of Wisconsin 2 Institutode Matemática e Estatística Universidade de São Paulo March 15, 2007 Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 1 / 21
  • 2. Introduction Introduction Version of the Frog Model on the complete graph Let Kn be the complete graph with n vertices and L ≥ 1 a xed integer Initially: a xed number of particles at each vertex of Kn Some of them are active, the others inactive Active particles: realize continuous time random walk through the vertices of Kn wait a rate 1 exponential time and jump uniformly to the vertices of Kn have L lives each - each particle loses 1 life when it jumps to a visited vertex - dies when it reaches 0 (zero) lives Inactive particles: become active when some active particle jumps over the vertex where they are placed Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 2 / 21
  • 3. Introduction For a realization of the Frog Model on Kn , consider V n (t ): Number of visited vertices at time t , An (t ), i = 1, . . . , L: Number of active particles with i lives at time t . i Initial conditions: Vn (0) = ρn n, with ρn n integer and such that 0 ρn 1, 0 0 0 (1) An (0) i = ρn n, for i = 1, . . . , L, with ρn n integer and such i i (2) L that ρn ≥ 0 and i ρn 0. i i =1 γ n := inf {t : L An (t ) = 0}, the rst time there are no active particles. i =1 i We look for V n ) , the proportion of visited vertices at the end of the (γ n n process. We call it the cover of the process. Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 3 / 21
  • 4. Introduction Figure: Simulation for z 1000 (t ) starting with 1 active particle (with L = 2). Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 4 / 21
  • 5. Introduction Z n (t ) = ( V n (t ), n A1 (t ) , n A2 (t ) , ... , n AL (t ) ) is a Markov chain in ZL+1 governed by jump intensities qln (Z ), Z , l ∈ ZL+1 , representing the transition rates from state Z to Z + l . We observe that qln (Z ) = 0 for l outside Λ, the set of the possible transitions. Note that Λ = {l0 , l1 , . . . , lL }, where l0 = (1, 0, 0, . . . , 0, 1), → a particle jumps to an unvisited vertex l1 = (0, −1, 0, . . . , 0, 0), → death of a particle lj = (0, . . . , 0, 1 , −1 , . . . , 0), j = 2, . . . , L. An−1 Aj n j → a particle with j lives misses one life Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 5 / 21
  • 6. Introduction If the process is in the state Z = (V , A1 , . . . , AL ) the rates qln (Z ) have the following form: L n V ql0 (Z ) = (1 − ) Ai n i =1 n V ql (Z ) = i Ai , i = 1, . . . , L, n and qln (Z ) = 0 for l outside Λ. Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 6 / 21
  • 7. Introduction Then the distribution of Z n (t ) is determined by P (Z n (t + h) = Z + l |Z n (t ) = Z ) = hqln (Z ) + o (h), l = 0 n n P(Z (t + h ) = Z |Z (t ) = Z ) = 1 − n hql (Z ) + o (h). l Now, let Y0 , Y1 , . . . , YL be independet standard Poisson processes dened for each of the transitions in Λ. Then Z n (t ) can be written as t Z n (t ) = Z n (0) + lYl ( n ql (Z n (s ))ds ). l ∈Λ 0 Given Z n (t ) = Z , the probability that there will be a jump in t Yl ( 0 qln (Z n (s ))ds ) during (t , t + h) is hqln (Z ) + o (h) since the integrand is equal to qln (Z ) until the rst jump after t . Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 7 / 21
  • 8. Introduction Let = Z n(t ) = (v n (t ), a1 (t ), a2 (t ), . . . , aln (t )), and n z n (t ) n n an (t ) = L an (t ). i =1 i v n (0)= ρn ∈ [0, 1], 0 Remeber that ai (0) = ρn 0, i = 1, . . . , L. n i Then z n (t ) is a Markov chain with state space { n z : z ∈ ZL+1 } and 1 satises l t z n (t ) = z n (0) + Yl n fl (Z n (s ))ds . (3) n 0 l ∈Λ Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 8 / 21
  • 9. Introduction In other words: t v n (t ) = ρn + Y0 n (1 − v n (s ))an (s )ds 1 0 , n 0 t t ain (t ) = ρn + Yi +1 n v n (s )ain+1 (s )ds − Yi n v n (s )ain (s )ds , 1 1 i n 0 n 0 i = 1, . . . , L − 1, t t aL (t ) = ρn + Y0 n n (1 − v n (s ))an (s )ds v n (s )ain (s )ds . 1 1 L − YL n n 0 n 0 L where an (s ) = n i =1 ai (s ) and Yi is the Poisson process associated to the vector li . Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 9 / 21
  • 10. Deterministic Limit Deterministic Limit Dene the drift function F by F (z ) = l ∈Λ lfl (z ), for z ∈ RL+1 . Let t z (t ) = z0 + F (z (s ))ds . (4) 0 Then, the following theorem guarantees the convergence of z n (t ) to the deterministic model z (t ). Theorem Suppose limn→∞ z n (0) = z0 and that for each compact K ∈ RL+1 there is a constant MK 0 such that |F (x ) − F (y )| ≤ MK |x − y | for all x , y ∈ K. Then limn→∞ sups ≤t |z n (s ) − z (s )| =0 almost surely, where z (t ) is the unique solution to (4). Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 10 / 21
  • 11. Deterministic Limit Supposing that (1) and (2) hold with ρn → ρi , i = 0, . . . , L, it results that i the corresponing deterministic model for z n (t ) is governed by t v (t ) = ρ0 + (1 − v (s ))a(s )ds , 0 t ai (t ) = ρi + v (s )(ai +1 (s ) − ai (s ))ds , i = 1, . . . , L − 1, (5) 0 t aL (t ) = ρL + (1 − v (s ))a(s ) − v (s )aL (s )ds , 0 where a(s ) = L a (s ). i =1 i Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 11 / 21
  • 12. Deterministic Limit For the one-particle-per-site initial conguration, for example, the corresponding initial conditions on the deterministic model are ρ0 = ρ 1 = . . . = ρL = 0 . (6) Since the solution of (5)-(6) is the limit of the proportions as n → ∞ in any bounded time interval [0, T ], we have that for any t ≥ 0, limn→∞ v n (t ) = 0, limn→∞ ai (t ) n = 0, ∀i = 1, . . . , L, a.s. Don't say much about the behaviour of the process for large values of n; γ n is going to innity witn n and the limit equations are valid only for bounded intervals; We are interested in the state where the process is absorbed. ⇒ We can speed up the process without aecting where it hits the boundary. Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 12 / 21
  • 13. Time Change Time Change Make the time change dened by τ τ n (t ) = inf {τ : a n (s )ds = t }, 0 and let us observe the process at time τ n (t ), dening z n (t ) = z n (τn (t )). ˜ Proposition This change of scale speeds up the process in such a way that the times between two jumps of the process are always rate n exponentials. Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 13 / 21
  • 14. Time Change The speeded system z n (t ) = z n (τn (t )) is described by the following ˜ equations: 1 t v n (t ) = v n (τ (t )) ˜ = ρn + Y0 n (1 − v n (s ))ds ˜ , 0 n 0 t ˜in+1 (s ) a 1 t ˜in (s ) a ˜in (t ) = ain (τ (t )) a = ρ n + Yi + 1 i v n (s ) ˜ ds − Yi n v n (s ) ˜ ds , 0 ˜n (s ) a n 0 ˜n (s ) a i = 1, . . . , L − 1, 1 t 1 t ˜L (s ) an ˜L (t ) = aL (τ (t )) an n = ρn + L Y0 n (1 − v n (s ))ds ˜ − YL n v n (s ) ˜ ds , n 0 n 0 ˜n (s ) a 1 t 1 t ˜n (s ) a ˜n (t ) = an (τ (t )) a = ρn + Y0 i n (1 − v n (s ))ds ˜ − Y1 n v n (s ) 1 ds ˜ . i n 0 n 0 ˜n (s ) a Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 14 / 21
  • 15. Time Change The time-changed system has nontrivial limit, t v (t ) = ρ0 + (1 − v (s ))ds , 0 t ai +1 (s ) t ai (s ) ai (t ) = ρi + v (s ) ds − v (s ) ds , 0 a(s ) 0 a(s ) = 1, . . . , L − 1, i (7) t t aL (s ) aL (t ) = ρL + (1 − v (s ))ds − v (s ) ds , 0 0 a(s ) t t a1 (s ) a(t ) = ρi + (1 − v (s ))ds − v (s ) ds , 0 0 a(s ) i dened until γ = inf {t : a(t ) = 0}. ˜ Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 15 / 21
  • 16. Convergence of v n (γ n ) Convergence of v n (γ n ) Let γ n = inf {t : ˜n (t ) = 0}. We are looking for v = limn→ v n (γ n ), which ˜ a is the same as the limit of v n (˜ n ). ˜ γ Theorem The limit cover v of the process is given by v = 1 − (1 − ρ0 ) exp {−LambertW (−cρ0 ,L exp{−cρ0 ,L − ρ}) − cρ0 ,L − ρ} , = (1 − ρ0 )(L + 1) L iρ . where cρ0 ,L and ρ= i =1 i Obs. The LambertW function is the inverse of the function x → xe x . Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 16 / 21
  • 17. Convergence of v n (γ n ) Proof. We prove the convergence of v n (γ n ) through proving the convergence of γ n . ˜ Theorem γn ˜ converges almost surely to the solution of γ − ρ = (L + 1)(1 − e −γ )(1 − ρ0 ). (8) Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 17 / 21
  • 18. Convergence of v n (γ n ) As ilustration we return to the case ρ0 = ρ = 0 and plot γ and v for some ˜ values of L. Figure: γ (L) ˜ Figure: v (L) An interesting fact is that for these values of ρ0 and ρ, when L = 1 the limit cover is approximately 0, 798612, and for all nit L it is less than 1. Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 18 / 21
  • 19. Number of Jumps of the Model Number of Jumps of the Model From the convergence of γ n results the following corolary: ˜ Corolary Let Nn be the total number of jumps the original model makes until the end of the process. Then, E (Nn ) lim = γ. ˜ n→∞ n Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 19 / 21
  • 20. Central Limit Theorem Central Limit Theorem We can also derive a central limit theorem for vn (γ n ) for the case ρ0 = ρ = 0: Theorem √ n(vn (γ n ) − v ) n→∞ N (0, σ 2 ), ⇒ with γeγ ˜ ˜ σ2 = . (L + 1)(˜ − L) γ Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 20 / 21
  • 21. Central Limit Theorem For L = 2, σ2 is approximately 0.06815. Bellow we present the histogram of 10000 simulations of the chain for this case with n = 1000. The curve in red is the normal distribution with mean 0 and variance 0.06815. √ Kurtz, Lebensztayn, Leichsenring, Machado (Universidade de São on the and University of Wisconsin) 15, 2007 Random Walk Systems Paulo Complete Graph March 21 / 21