Tendencia de la reduccion de riesgos a desastres
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Tendencia de la reduccion de riesgos a desastres
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Tendencia de la reduccion de riesgos a desastres
- 1. 1 www.unisdr.org Perspectivas de la Gestión Integral del Riesgo de Desastres, UNISDR TALLER REGIONAL DE CONSULTA Y DIVULGACIÓN SOBRE GESTIÓN INTEGRAL DEL RIESGO EN Ciudad de Panamá, 26, 27 y 28 de noviembre de Raul Salazar CENTROAMÉRICA 2013. UNISDR, Oficina Regional Las Américas www.eird.org
- 2. 2 www.unisdr.org Tendencia Desastres 1950-2009 * Desastres Biológicos excluidos
- 3. 3 DECRECE LA MORTALIDAD-CRECE EL RIESGO DE PERDIDAS ECONOMICAS www.unisdr.org
- 4. 4 DECRECE LA MORTALIDAD-CRECE EL RIESGO DE PERDIDAS ECONOMICAS www.unisdr.org • Por primera vez pérdidas anuales por desastres exceden USD100 billones de USD por tres años consecutivos) : 138 billones en 2010, 371 billones en 2011, 138 billones en 2012. • Los últimos 13 años USD 2.5 trillones (357 USD pp)
- 5. 5 www.unisdr.org CRECE LA MORTALIDAD-CRECE EL RIESGO DE PERDIDAS ECONOMICAS Percentage change in flood mortality risk, exposure and vulnerability, as modeled, from 1980–2010 (compared to baseline year 1980) Percentage change in economic loss risk, exposure and vulnerability to floods in Latin America and the Caribbean as modelled, 1990–2010 (compared to baseline year 1990)
- 6. 6 www.unisdr.org DECRECE LA MORTALIDAD Percentage change in flood mortality risk, exposure and vulnerability, as modeled, from 1980–2010 (compared to baseline year 1980)
- 7. 7 Globalised riskscapes www.unisdr.org Produced capital stock in Southeast Asia and cyclone wind hazard (50 year return period)
- 8. 8 Progreso variado en logro del MAH www.unisdr.org
- 9. 9 www.unisdr.org Progreso variado en logro del MAH : Factores subyacentes • Manejo de recursos naturales y medioambientales (incluyendo adaptación al cambio climático). • Planificación y prácticas referidas al desarrollo socio económico • Organización y uso de suelo y otros aspectos técnicos (incluyendo códigos de construcción).
- 10. 10 www.unisdr.org Enfrentar la reducción de la exposición, pérdidas económicas y riesgos futuros. • La reducción de vulnerabilidad a amenazas naturales se deriva de los beneficios como las mejoras en tipos de vivienda, transporte, ingeniería aplicada, tecnologías utilizadas en los sistemas de alerta temprana y sistemas de educación. • Sin embargo, la evidencia y los modelos sugieren que la reducción de vulnerabilidad a las amenazas puede no ser capaz o adecuada para reducir la exposición y las subsecuentes pérdidas económicas que esta crea.
- 11. 11 www.unisdr.org Enfrentar la reducción de la exposición, pérdidas económicas y riesgos futuros. • Se hace necesario revisar la estrategia para reducir la creación de nuevos riesgos futuros : A) Reducir la exposición : • Planificación de uso de suelos • Planificación urbana • Recuperación post –desastres (incluido débilmente en HFA1). • Manejo de las cadenas de abastecimientos (no abordado e HFA1) • Manejo de ecosistemas (no abordado aun en HFA1---vinculo debil RRD y manejo de recursos y débiles mecanismos de gobernabilidad). • Construcción de una demanda social para RRD. • Mejoras de la responsabilidad y apropiación para la reducción de riesgos.
- 12. 12 www.unisdr.org RRiieessggoo GGlloobbaall yy llaass AAmméérriiccaass:: CCoonntteexxttoo • Las pérdidas por desastres estan subestimadas : solo en los últimos 30 años el impacto de 27 grandes desastres sobrepasa los $213 mil millones (CEPAL) •En la región, cerca del 40–70 % de todos los desastres a nivel nacional informados ocurren en centros urbanos de menos de 100.000 habitantes.
- 13. 13 www.unisdr.org Estadísticas 1990-2011
- 14. 14 www.unisdr.org Desastres en la Región de las Américas – En las Américas : • El 99% de los registros estan relacionados a eventos extensivos (menos de 25 fallecidos y 300 viviendas afectadas). • 2/3 de los registros asociados al riesgo climatico. • 90% de las personas afectadas por eventos vinculados a desastres de origen climático, 86% de las viviendas dañadas, 50% de las pérdidas de vidas y 37% de las viviendas destruidas.
- 15. 15 www.unisdr.org Desastres en la Región de las Américas – En las Américas : • Una alta proporción de estos eventos ocurrió en municipio con pequeñlas areas urbanas (entre 20,000 y 100,000 habitantes) • Procesos de urbanización rápidos y poco planificados incrementan las exposición a los desastres. • Los más pobres están expuestos a los desastres de manera desproporcionada
- 16. 16 www.unisdr.org Pérdidas económicas directas en 40 países estimadas a partir de bases de datos nacionales y globales 1981–2011 (en millones US$)
- 17. 17 www.unisdr.org Actualmente los asentamientos urbanos son el hogar de más del 50% de la población mundial Para el 2030 se esperan 2.000 millones de nuevos residentes urbanos 2/3 de las ciudades del planeta están ubicadas en zonas costeras y valles o planicies fluviales
- 18. Los eventos de amenazas 18 naturales y desastres en www.unisdr.org expansión. UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision
- 19. 19 www.unisdr.org Enfrentar la reducción de la exposición, pérdidas económicas y riesgos futuros. B) Aumentar la escala de las acciones de reducción de la vulnerabilidad y construcción de resiliencia. •Legislación : aborda factores subyacentes? •Expandir esquemas de protección social •Inversión publica que integra DRR •Mejoras en los sistemas de construcción.
- 20. 20 www.unisdr.org La RRD en la planificación del desarrollo. UN World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2007 Revision
- 21. 21 www.unisdr.org Impulsores del riesgo en los entornos urbanos El aumento de las poblaciones urbanas y la densidad creciente. Una elevada densidad de población constituye un considerable impulsor del riesgo cuando la calidad de la vivienda, las infraestructuras y los servicios son deficientes. Una gobernanza urbana débil. Cómo se gobierna y qué servicios se prestan a esta población urbana grande y en rápido crecimiento incide considerablemente en el desarrollo y en la RRD. Desarrollo urbano no planificado. Los retos que supone el rápido crecimiento de numerosas ciudades y el declive de otras, la expansión del sector informal y la función que desempeñan las ciudades con respecto al origen y a la mitigación del cambio climático precisan de unos sistemas de planificación urbana sólidos. Declive de los ecosistemas. Los ecosistemas ofrecen ventajas y servicios sustanciales a las ciudades y a los gobiernos locales.
- 22. 22 www.unisdr.org Impulsores del riesgo en los entornos urbanos La falta de suelo para los ciudadanos de bajos ingresos. La mayor parte de las personas de bajos ingresos urbanos están más expuestas a amenazas y desastres porque viven en asentamientos informales o lugares inseguros que carecen, a menudo, de servicios básicos. Construcción inapropiada. Coloca en peligro a millones de personas innecesariamente. Las escuelas y hospitales seguros prestarían refugio y servicios necesarios. Un sistema colector de aguas pluviales reduciría las inundaciones y los desprendimientos de tierras a un costo reducido. Concentración de activos económicos. El crecimiento económico ha sido más rápido en las regiones costeras y en las zonas próximas a grandes ríos navegables, que están expuestas al riesgo de inundaciones, el aumento del nivel del mar y fenómenos meteorológicos extremos cuya frecuencia e intensidad podrían aumentar a causa del cambio climático.
- 24. 24 www.unisdr.org ¿PPoorr qquuéé llooss ddeessaassttrreess ssoonn uunn pprroobblleemmaa ppaarraa eell ddeessaarrrroolllloo?? 24 ÁMBITO DEL DESARROLLO El desarrollo puede aumentar la vulnerabilidad El desarrollo puede reducir la vulnerabilidad Los desastres pueden entorpecer el desarrollo Los desastres pueden traer oportunidades de desarrollo ÁMBITO DE LOS DESASTRES ÁMBITO NEGATIVO ÁMBITO POSITIVO
- 25. 25 www.unisdr.org 25 EEll ddeessaarrrroolllloo ppuueeddee rreedduucciirr llaa vvuullnneerraabbiilliiddaadd Fuente: PNUD Exposición similar… pero impacto humano diferente Promedio de expuestos / promedio de víctimas mortales Países con desarrollo humano bajo Países con desarrollo humano alto • El riesgo de desastres es menor en los países desarrollados que en los países de bajo desarrollo • Los procesos de desarrollo pueden ayudar a reducir la exposición física a las amenazas (normativas de construcción antisísmica, etc.)
- 26. 26 www.unisdr.org El desarrollo puede aumentar la vulnerabilidad Desarrollo inadecuado • Despejar terrenos para asentamientos y actividades productivas • Cubrir zonas de poca altitud para la construcción • Industrias con un alto nivel de consumo de recursos naturales • Deforestacion en zonas costeras – Instalaciones inadecuadas de infraestructura • Desagüe inadecuado, no hay cauces / terraplenes de protección • Asentamientos sin protección • Construcción en zonas costeras expuestas Amenazas Desastres
- 27. 27 www.unisdr.org Los desastres pueden ofrecer oportunidades de desarrollo • Destacan las áreas de vulnerabilidad • Crean un entorno político favorable para los cambios sociales y económicos • Pueden motivar una mayor sensibilización pública y una participación más amplia en el campo de la seguridad pública • Permiten que las áreas destruidas se reconstruyan de forma más segura • Pueden dar origen a una nueva o una mayor asignación de recursos en la RRD
- 28. 28 Los desastres pueden retrasar el desarrollo www.unisdr.org ODM* Impactos directos Erradicar la pobreza y el hambre Daños a las viviendas, a la infraestructura de servicios, los ahorros y los bienes productivos, al igual que pérdidas humanas que reducen la sostenibilidad de los medios de sustento. Lograr una educación primaria universal Daños a la infraestructura educativa, desplazamiento de la población, con lo que se interrumpe la enseñanza. Promover la igualdad de género y facultar a las mujeres A medida que los hombres emigran para buscar trabajos alternativos, aumenta la carga de las mujeres/las niñas en cuanto a la atención y el cuidado. Por lo general, las mujeres soportan la carga más fuerte de la angustia de las estrategias de ‘afrontamiento’, tal como una menor ingestión de alimentos. Reducir la mortalidad infantil Por lo general, los niños son los que están más en riesgo, por ejemplo, de ahogarse durante las inundaciones, y de sufrir las consecuencias de los daños a la infraestructura de los servicios de agua y saneamiento. Mejorar la salud materna Por lo general, las mujeres embarazadas corren un alto riesgo de muerte/lesiones durante los desastres. Se daña la infraestructura de salud.
- 29. 29 www.unisdr.org Los desastres pueden retrasar el desarrollo ODM Impactos directos Combatir el VIH/ SIDA, el paludismo y otras enfermedades Una salud y una nutrición inadecuadas después de un desastre debilitan la inmunidad. Daños a la infraestructura de salud, aumento de las enfermedades respiratorias relacionadas con la humedad, el polvo y la contaminación del aire como consecuencia de un desastre. Velar por la sostenibilidad ambiental Daños a los recursos ambientales e intensificación de la erosión de los suelos o de la deforestación. Daños a la infraestructura para la gestión hídrica y de otros tipos. A menudo, los habitantes de los tugurios / las personas en asentamientos temporales resultan muy afectados. Establecer una alianza global para el desarrollo Impactos en los programas para los pequeños Estados insulares debido a las tormentas tropicales, los tsunamis, etc. Todos los ODM Reasignación de recursos del desarrollo hacia las actividades de ayuda y recuperación.
- 30. 30 11998899:: DDIIRRNN 11999900--11999999 www.unisdr.org RReedduucccciióónn ddee RRiieessggoo ddee DDeessaassttrreess:: uunnaa 1994: Estrategia y Plan de Acción de Yokohama 2000: ONU/EIRD aaggeennddaa eenn pprrooggrreessoo 2002: Plan para el Desarrollo sostenible Johannesburgo 2005: Marco de Acción de Hyogo Promoción de la reducción de desastres, principal-mente por científicos y técnicos Revisión intermedia de la DIRDN, primer documento guía sobre políticas de reducción de riesgo (orientación social y comunitaria) Aumento del compromiso público y vínculo con el desarrollo sostenible, incremento de la cooperación y alianzas internacionales. Mecanismos: ETI/RD, secretaría de la EIRD, Fondo fiduciario de la ONU Incluye una nueva sección sobre: “Un enfoque integrado, global y multiamenazas para tratar el tema de la vulnerabilidad, la evaluación del riesgo y la gestión de desastres…” Rio +20 Aumento de la resiliencia de las naciones y comunidades ante los desastres
- 31. 31 www.unisdr.org Prioridades para la acción del MAH 1. Velar porque la RRD constituya una prioridad nacional y local con una sólida base institucional de aplicación. 2. Identificar, evaluar y monitorear los riesgos de desastres y mejorar las alertas tempranas. 3. Utilizar el conocimiento, la innovación y la educación para crear una cultura de seguridad y resiliencia a todo nivel. 4. Reducir los factores de riesgo subyacentes. 5. Fortalecer la preparación en caso de desastre a fin de asegurar una respuesta eficaz a todo nivel.
- 32. 32 www.unisdr.org PROGRESOS DESIGUALES EN LA IMPLEMENTACIÓN DEL MAH- LAC
- 33. 33 www.unisdr.org Arquitectura del Sistema de la ISDR Implementación Nacional PLATAFORMAS NACIONALES- Marcos nacionales, multi-actores y multi-disciplinarios con apoyo de los equipos de Naciones Unidas – Regional Basado en mecanismos y estrategias regionales y subregionales Temáticos Se construyen sobre redes existentes, programas y otros mecanismos Programa de la EIRD Coordinación intrenacional y regional Esfuerzos para apoyar las capacidades Locales y nacionales Global Sesiones Anuales Comite Asesor
- 34. 34 www.unisdr.org RRD: a tomar en cuenta 1. “El problema no son los desastres. El problema es el riesgo” 2. El riesgo es un factor de construcción social 3. “Una sola medida no es suficiente”. Necesidad de transversalizar 4. El riesgo está localizado: rol de los gobiernos locales 5. La reducción de la vulnerabilidad es un tema vinculado con el desarrollo 6. Pobreza y segregación social como factores agravantes
- 35. 35 www.unisdr.org Utilizar la inversión pública para disminuir el riesgo futuro
- 36. 36 www.unisdr.org RETOS QUE SE ENFRENTAN •La revisión de avance del HFA demuestra que pocos países son capaces de cuantificar sus inversiones en la Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres. Está claro que la estrategia que se ha venido aplicando hasta ahora de hacer frente al riesgo a través de proyectos aislados de RRD no está abordando este problema central. •Una de las razones por qué las inversiones en DRR son tan pequeñas, es que la mayoría de las pérdidas, especialmente aquellas asociadas con el riesgo extensivo, no son sistemáticamente contabilizadas y son absorbidas principalmente por familias de bajos ingresos, no proporcionando un incentivo político para invertir en RRD. •A menos que un país pueda calcular el costo de estas pérdidas, es improbable que sea capaz de justificar las inversiones significativas en RRD en el presupuesto nacional.
- 37. 38 www.unisdr.org The resilience challenge The risk financing gap in Honduras
- 38. 39 www.unisdr.org El sector privado : retos y avances Hazard-related business disruptions: of major concern and that actually had been experienced during the last five years
- 39. 40 www.unisdr.org El sector privado : retos y avances
- 40. 41 www.unisdr.org www.preventionweb.net www.eird.org UNISDR Oficina Regional para las Américas Av. Arnoldo Cano, #843, Clayton Panama, Rep. de Panama Casilla postal 0816-02862 Tel.: +507 317-1120 Fax: +507 317 0600 eird@eird.org
Notas do Editor
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- Risks to business have escalated over the last 40 years due to the characteristics of economic globalisation. Seeking competitive advantages large businesses have decentralised, outsourced or off-shored parts of their value chain to countries offering cheap labour, access to export markets, subsidised infrastructure, tax breaks and other benefits. This has been facilitated by dramatic reductions in the cost of transport and communications, new organisational models and by deregulation and liberalisation of markets. Many of these areas, however, are also exposed to cyclones, tsunamis, floods and other hazards. While globalisation therefore has spurred economic growth it has also dramatically increased the value of assets at risk. The value of produced capital in East Asia and the Pacific, for example, more than doubled from US$4.6 trillion in 1995 to US$10 trillion in 2005. The proportion of global GDP exposed to tropical cyclones increased from 3.6 percent to 4.3 percent since 1970. Globally USD71 trillion of assets are exposed to one-in-250 year earthquakes. While both businesses and the countries they invest in have benefited from globalisation, they are now sitting on a multi-trillion dollar stock of disaster prone assets – a new class of toxic assets.
- The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) agreed by countries in 2005 provides the overarching international framework for disaster risk reduction. Over the last three bienniums government reporting against the five Priority Areas shows gradual but consistent progress. However, whereas countries have made good progress in managing disasters (Priority Area 5) and putting in place the institutional arrangements, legislation and policies to do so (Priority Area 1), they have been more challenged to factor disaster risk reduction into public investment, land-use planning, infrastructure projects, environmental management and social policies. While there is now evidence of increased government investment in corrective disaster risk management and in risk financing, there is little solid progress in anticipatory or prospective disaster risk management. In fact, as the role of the state in attracting and facilitating private investment has become increasingly important, some governments provide tax-breaks and infrastructure for businesses investing in hazard exposed Special Economic Zones, in agriculture, mining and other extractive activities or in tourism in SIDS. There appears to be little coordination between the organisations responsible for disaster risk management and those responsible for trade and investment in many governments.
- The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) agreed by countries in 2005 provides the overarching international framework for disaster risk reduction. Over the last three bienniums government reporting against the five Priority Areas shows gradual but consistent progress. However, whereas countries have made good progress in managing disasters (Priority Area 5) and putting in place the institutional arrangements, legislation and policies to do so (Priority Area 1), they have been more challenged to factor disaster risk reduction into public investment, land-use planning, infrastructure projects, environmental management and social policies. While there is now evidence of increased government investment in corrective disaster risk management and in risk financing, there is little solid progress in anticipatory or prospective disaster risk management. In fact, as the role of the state in attracting and facilitating private investment has become increasingly important, some governments provide tax-breaks and infrastructure for businesses investing in hazard exposed Special Economic Zones, in agriculture, mining and other extractive activities or in tourism in SIDS. There appears to be little coordination between the organisations responsible for disaster risk management and those responsible for trade and investment in many governments.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- - 2011 was a record year in disaster losses: $380 billion Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of long-term increases in economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high confidence) - Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism. Effective risk management generally involves a portfolio of actions to reduce and transfer risk and to respond to events and disasters, as opposed to a singular focus on any one action or type of action (high confidence). Migration changes households as social institutions and can be both a cause and a consequence of violence and insecurity. Secondly, and closely linked to migration, is the impact of rapid urbanisation on inter- and intracommunity-level violence. While rural conflict can act as a push factor for urban migration, the phenomenon can itself exacerbate violence in urban areas. Rapid urban population growth, closely associated with overcrowding, inadequate housing and basic infrastructure provision (such as of water, electricity and transport), has important violence-related consequences, particularly when it is poorly planned for. - Inequalities influence local coping and adaptive capacity, and pose disaster risk management and adaptation challenges from the local to national levels (high agreement, robust evidence). It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming. - Caracter concatenado del riesgo: aumento precio del petroleo cuando se combinan la amenaza de huracanes en el Golfo de México con conflicto de la producción de petroleo en Nigeria; o crisis crediticia de países desarrollados empuja a la recesión económica, rompe el auge de la construcción en el Golfo Pérsico y disminuyen las remesas que los trabajadores emigrantes envian a sus familias en el continente indio; El huracán Katrina afecta la producción de petroleo lo cual incrementa la producción de etanol elaborado a partir del maíz lo cual encarece el precio de las tortillas en Ciudad de México. - Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and adaptation approaches. A prerequisite for sustainability in the context of climate change is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability, including the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources.
- - 2011 was a record year in disaster losses: $380 billion Increasing exposure of people and economic assets has been the major cause of long-term increases in economic losses from weather- and climate-related disasters (high confidence) - Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism. Effective risk management generally involves a portfolio of actions to reduce and transfer risk and to respond to events and disasters, as opposed to a singular focus on any one action or type of action (high confidence). Migration changes households as social institutions and can be both a cause and a consequence of violence and insecurity. Secondly, and closely linked to migration, is the impact of rapid urbanisation on inter- and intracommunity-level violence. While rural conflict can act as a push factor for urban migration, the phenomenon can itself exacerbate violence in urban areas. Rapid urban population growth, closely associated with overcrowding, inadequate housing and basic infrastructure provision (such as of water, electricity and transport), has important violence-related consequences, particularly when it is poorly planned for. - Inequalities influence local coping and adaptive capacity, and pose disaster risk management and adaptation challenges from the local to national levels (high agreement, robust evidence). It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming. - Caracter concatenado del riesgo: aumento precio del petroleo cuando se combinan la amenaza de huracanes en el Golfo de México con conflicto de la producción de petroleo en Nigeria; o crisis crediticia de países desarrollados empuja a la recesión económica, rompe el auge de la construcción en el Golfo Pérsico y disminuyen las remesas que los trabajadores emigrantes envian a sus familias en el continente indio; El huracán Katrina afecta la producción de petroleo lo cual incrementa la producción de etanol elaborado a partir del maíz lo cual encarece el precio de las tortillas en Ciudad de México. - Social, economic, and environmental sustainability can be enhanced by disaster risk management and adaptation approaches. A prerequisite for sustainability in the context of climate change is addressing the underlying causes of vulnerability, including the structural inequalities that create and sustain poverty and constrain access to resources.
- Las pérdidas directas son al menos un tercio mayores que las que se reportan a nivel global Los desastres extensivos minan tanto el desarrollo local como la competitividad nacional El riesgo extensivo es producido por la urbanización y el desarrollo económico El costo de los desastres extensivos es con frecuencia absorbido por los hogares menos resilientes y por los negocios
- En América Latina y el Caribe existen 110 millones de personas de escasos recursos viviendo en asentamientos precarios, lo cual representa el 23% de su población urbana. Esta es una situación que busca revertirse mediante el desarrollo de comunidades resilientes, tarea en la que los gobiernos regionales y locales son actores claves.
- GAR11 has some good news. Globally, mortality risk to floods and tropical cyclones is now going down because vulnerability reduction is outpacing increases in exposure. For example, mortality risk to tropical cyclones in East Asia and the Pacific, which concentrates about 44% of the people exposed per year, is now 50% lower than in 1980 in absolute terms and a third lower per capita. Along with improving development conditions have come enhancements in disaster management, such as early warning, preparedness and response that lead to dramatically reduced mortality when hazards strike. In contrast, however, economic loss risk is continuing to increase particularly in wealthier countries. In 2010, the economic loss risk to floods in the OECD, which concentrates about 53% of the global GDP exposed per year, is about 170% more than in 1990. Economic loss risk in the OECD is rising faster than GDP per capita. meaning that the risk of losing wealth in weather-related disasters is increasing faster than that wealth is being created. This does not mean that countries are not reducing their vulnerability – they are. But these improvements are not happening fast or deep enough to compensate for increasing exposure.
- En América Latina y el Caribe existen 110 millones de personas de escasos recursos viviendo en asentamientos precarios, lo cual representa el 23% de su población urbana. Esta es una situación que busca revertirse mediante el desarrollo de comunidades resilientes, tarea en la que los gobiernos regionales y locales son actores claves.
- Finally, effective risk governance rests on three pillars: First, central oversight for DRR must lie with a body that has responsibility for planning and budgeting, both at national and local levels. To date, there is little evidence of countries locating responsibility for DRM in their economic & financial planning ministries. Secondly, the decentralisation of responsibility and functions has to be done pragmatically. Several countries have spread the various functions of DRM across different levels of governance. Parallel laws and strategies are not linked, but – maybe most importantly – decentralised functions are in most cases not accompanied by adequate financial and human resources. In these cases, decentralisation may become an obstacle to effective DRM. In the review of progress that countries do themselves, of 82 countries, only 48 confirmed that local governments have budgets for DRM. In Latin America, several countries that have invested heavily in decentralisation still struggle with inadequate local government capacity and resources. Thirdly, DRM will only be effective when it is carried out in real partnership with disaster prone households and communities and their organisations. The challenge is not community participation – it is government participation in the planning and implementation of community and local DRM. Importantly, the right to information on disaster risks is central to creating social demand and accountability – a prerequisite for improved risk governance capacity. Therefore, engaging citizens and affected communities requires a shift in the culture of public administration.
- Ref: UNDP/BCPR Reducing Disaster Risk: A challenge for Development . Figures referring to earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones and drought in 1994-2004. (GAR 209) In Japan, approximately 22.5 million people are exposed annually, compared to 16 million people in the Philippines. However, the estimated annual death toll from cyclones in the Philippines is almost 17 times greater than that of Japan. This uneven distribution of risk is also true for groups of countries. For the same number of people exposed to tropical cyclones, mortality risk in low-income countries is approximately 200 times higher than in OECD countries. (GAR 2009) 1975-2008 CRED statistics: Number of disaster is increasing (intensity) Number of people killed decreasing Economic loss increasing
- Los desastres están relacionados con el desarrollo de dos formas: Las amenazas se transforman en desastres cuando existe un bajo nivel de desarrollo físico y social. El desarrollo de tal infraestructura puede ser por sí misma la causa de un desastre.
- In the 2009-2011 HFA Progress Review there has been a reported improvement across all HFA Priority Areas since the previous reporting period from 2007-2009. But countries are continuing to report markedly less progress against HFA Priority Area 4 – addressing the underlying risk drivers. Other areas of weakness are in public awareness of risks (Priority Area of 3) and on integrating gender considerations, where little or no progress has been made since 2009. In contrast countries are making good progress in strengthening their capacities in disaster preparedness and response and in developing the institutional arrangements and legislation necessary to underpin it. While much needs to be done to further strengthen disaster management, particularly in early warning, the good progress reported supports the trend of reducing weather related mortality risk.
- Los niveles de accion con el enfasis en implementacion nacional
- In future, trillions of dollars of new business investment will pour into hazard-exposed regions, largely determining the outlook for disaster risk. In most economies, only 15– 30 percent of this investment is made directly by the public sector.i How the other 70– 85 percent of investment is made, therefore, has far-reaching consequences on disaster risk accumulation and on underlying risk drivers.
- Business recovery after a disaster depends on the capacity of countries and cities to restore services, rehabilitate and rebuild infrastructure and recover. This should be considered before a business decides to invest in a country Many low and middle income countries with high disaster risk also have weak economies and a constrained fiscal space. In order to plug the fiscal gap caused by disaster losses countries can recur to a variety of public and private mechanisms, including obtaining credit, issuing bonds, raising taxes and diverting from other budget lines. But after exhausting all these options many governments will still face a financing gap. In the case of Honduras, for example, the government would face a financing gap from any disaster costing more than US$1.9 billion. There is a 3% probability of such a disaster happening every year in Honduras.
- Events like Super-storm Sandy represent the spectacular disasters that makes it onto CNN. But most businesses interruptions are due to the large number of smaller recurrent events: localised floods, storms, landslides and so on – what we call extensive risk. Over 90% of damage to roads, telecommunications, power and water supplies are associated with these small-scale disasters. These also correspond to the disruptions most businesses experience and which are of major concern.
- Events like Super-storm Sandy represent the spectacular disasters that makes it onto CNN. But most businesses interruptions are due to the large number of smaller recurrent events: localised floods, storms, landslides and so on – what we call extensive risk. Over 90% of damage to roads, telecommunications, power and water supplies are associated with these small-scale disasters. These also correspond to the disruptions most businesses experience and which are of major concern.