1. Business plan for Catalan SMEs
2013-16
Business opportunities in an independent Catalonia
Grup d’Estudis del CCN. February 2013
2. Index
1. Objectives of the business plan for Catalan SMEs
2. Environment Analysis
i.
ii.
Demographic
iii.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Economic (macro)
Legal
Consumer-Customers-Markets
Differential social features
Catalan State SWOT and Executive summary
Annexes
The authors let others remix, tweak, and build upon this work even for commercial purposes, as long as they credit authors and
license their new creations under the identical terms.
2
3. Index
1. Objectives of the business plan for Catalan
SMEs
2. Environment Analysis
i.
ii.
Demographic
iii.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Economic (macro)
Legal
Consumer-Customers-Markets
Differential social features
Catalan State SWOT and Executive summary
Annexes
3
4. Catalan SMEs should prepare for the new situation in the
short term that means having an independent state
Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.
Is very necessary to include the probable scenario of an independent state in
the three-years strategic plans.
Entrepreneurs know how to manage the environment changes and transitions
to new scenarios. Now we have to count on a new Catalan State that will
defend our economic and social fabric.
Those who spread the discourse of fear among employers are those who, in
parallel, are preparing their own “Plan B” to be the only ones to benefit when
the separation arrives.
The CCN provides information, support ans advice to guarantee that all
Catalan SMEs thake this scenario into consideration in their future business
plans.
4
5. This document is meant to be the working base to make the
most of new opportunities and overcome the challenges that
Catalonia will provide in the short term
Anticipate the independence scenario.
Be well prepared to make the most of the big economic opportunities the
new Catalan state will provide.
Having enough knowledge base to counter the discourse of fear that
surrounds small entrepreneurs.
Avoid the risk of paralysis caused by lobbyists who want to keep the people
from deciding their social and economic future.
Have a business strategy in the medium term (3-5 years) and a short-term
action plan (1-2 years) with the foreseen data and trends for the new
scenario.
5
6. Index
1. Objectives of the business plan for Catalan SMEs
2. Environment Analysis
i.
ii.
Demographic
iii.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Economic (macro)
Legal
Consumer-Customers-Markets
Differential social features
Catalan State SWOT and Executive summary
Annexes
6
7. i.
Analysis of the macroeconomic environment with
an independent state
GDP growth forecast
Exports and tourism
Quantification of a Spanish trade boycott
Generalitat’s deficit or surplus and Catalan state budget
Debt and Public deficit
Financial capacity
Tax burden reduction
Unemployment evolution
7
8. The annual Catalan GDP is set above the 200,000 million
Euros per year and represents between 1.4%and 1.5% of
European GDP
Source: Idescat / Eurostat
8
9. The volume of Catalan GDP is comparable to that of other
Western Europe states
360.000
320.000
280.000
240.000
200.000
160.000
120.000
2.000
2.001
Norway
2.002
2.003
Austria
2.004
Denmark
2.005
2.006
Catalonia
2.007
Greece
2.008
2.009
Finland
2.010
2.011
Portugal
Source: Eurostat
9
10. The main industries that generate Catalonia’s GDP show a
diversified economy
1
INDUSTRIES
2.000
2.001
2.002
2.003
2.004
2.005
2.006
2.007
2.008
2.009
2.010
2
Agriculture, forestry
and fishing
1.942
2.176
2.006
1.893
1.858
1.786
2.235
2.153
2.048
2.136
1.959
31.331
33.295
33.616
34.425
36.235
36.630
38.360
40.021
40.283
35.793
36.888
29.087
30.832
30.927
31.533
33.022
32.944
34.490
35.841
35.504
30.582
31.549
Construction
10.996
12.493
13.778
15.063
16.876
19.463
22.309
23.596
24.338
23.201
21.139
Services
70.774
75.876
82.241
89.642
96.092 104.536 112.626 122.177 129.109 129.136 128.759
13.166
13.945
15.050
16.494
17.850
19.290
21.007
23.266
57.608
61.930
67.190
73.148
78.242
85.247
91.618
98.912 103.540 102.031 101.386
Industry
3
4
Manufacturing Industry
PPAA, education,
healthcare and social
services
Trade, hospitality,
finances and other
services
VAB
Net taxes over products
GDP
25.569
27.105
27.373
115.042 123.841 131.641 141.023 151.061 162.417 175.529 187.948 195.777 190.267 188.745
11.238
11.868
12.853
14.488
16.461
18.790
20.940
20.258
17.176
13.862
16.810
126.281 135.708 144.494 155.511 167.522 181.205 196.470 208.205 212.954 204.128 205.555
Source: Idescat (http://www.idescat.cat/pub/?id=ceac&n=2.1&t=2011&x=7&y=10)
10
11. The main component comes from the services sector, as in
other advanced economies, representing 130,000 million
Euros per year
4
2
3
1
Font: Idescat
11
12. The value of the agriculture sector GDP remains around
2.000 million Euros per year. Its weight in the overall GDP
falls steadily
1
2.500
1,8%
1,6%
2.000
1,4%
1,2%
1.500
1,0%
0,8%
1.000
0,6%
0,4%
500
0,2%
0
0,0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Agricultura, ramaderia, silvicultura i pesca
2008
2009
2010
2011
% PIB
Font: Idescat
12
13. The value of the industry sector GDP remains around 40.000
million Euros per year and its weight in the overall GDP
remains around 20%
2
45.000
30,0%
40.000
25,0%
35.000
30.000
20,0%
25.000
15,0%
20.000
15.000
10,0%
10.000
5,0%
5.000
0
0,0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Indústria
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
% PIB
Source: Idescat
13
14. The value of the services sector GDP is around 130.000
million Euros per year. It weight in the overall GDP has
reached 63% in the last years
3
140.000
64,0%
120.000
62,0%
100.000
60,0%
80.000
58,0%
60.000
56,0%
40.000
54,0%
20.000
0
52,0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
Serveis
2004
2005
% PIB
2006
2007
Serveis
2008
2009
2010
2011
% PIB
Source: Idescat
14
15. The value of the construction sector GDP is around 20.000
million Euros per year. It’s weight in the overall GDP is 10%
4
30.000
14,0%
12,0%
25.000
10,0%
20.000
8,0%
15.000
6,0%
10.000
4,0%
5.000
2,0%
0
0,0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Construcció
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
% PIB
Source : Idescat
15
16. Catalan entrepreneurs have the world as a market, because
they know that Spain will be in recession for many years
Catalan exports have experienced a year growth for 30 consecutive months
Catalan exports surpass the 55,185 M € in 2011, breaking the record of 2008 before the
crisis
The growth of exports in 2011 was 13.5%, higher than that of France, Germany or
Netherlands
16
17. Tourism provides opportunities for additional growth in
business, cultural and historical tourism
Barcelona, is ranked number 8 in the Top-25 global destinations.
Prestigious names: Pau Casals, Antoni Gaudí... Olympic Games 92, Barça, Salvador
Dalí, Picasso, Ferran Adrià, Manuel Castells, Andreu Mas-Colell, Xavier Sala i Martin,
Juan Ignacio Cirac...
Barcelona is ranked number 5 in Top European Cities and Catalonia is ranked number
in Top European Regions
Modernism, Romanesque, Gothic, Medieval towns, Renaissance
Climate, geography, Mediterranean, quality of life, food, sports
Catalan cuisine recognized worldwide
Congress and Business Tourism (Mobile World Congress...)
Medical Tourism
Barcelona’s Port, leading destination for cruises, and airports
17
18. Catalonia can accommodate professionals and high income
residents with their professional activities when combined
in a balanced way what we have and what we will have
There are great opportunities if take advantage of what we have:
o
Our climate
o
Quality of life
o
Geographic positioning
With a new State that reverses the trend of relocation
o
attractive research and development
o
advantages promoted by the Catalan Public Administration
o
growth in incomes and the economy
Business to develop:
Create better public safety in Europe
Plan to learn 4 languages
Program to empower the history of Catalonia
Program to restore cultural and historical assets
Promote the brands 'Catalonia' and 'Excellence from Catalonia'
18
19. The Catalan economy has a level of openness to foreign
trade and a balance of trade much higher than Spain
Economy’s level of openness in 2011
(exports+imports over GDP)
Catalunya
Espanya
sense
Catalunya
Payments balance
in relation to GDP, year 2011
94,0%
43,0%
Source: Eurostat, Idescat
19
20. The economic viability of the Catalan State has been
confirmed by renowned economists
Kenneth Rogoff
Former head of the International Monetary Fund, Professor of Economics at Harvard
“An independent Catalonia would be one of the richest countries in the world"
James Mackintosh
Editor of Investment s at the Financial Times
“An independent Catalonia would have the highest GDP per capita within the
Mediterranean countries”
Santiago Niño-Becerra
Professor of Economics at the Ramon Llull University
" An independent Catalonia is economically viable"
"Europe will tell Spain to not bother Catalonia"
Oriol Amat
Professor of Financial Economics and Accounting at Univ. Pompeu Fabra
" Catalonia is viable as an independent country and what is not viable is the
current relationship model with Spain "
Source: El Periódico, Expansión, Ara, La Vanguardia
20
21. The economic viability of the Catalan State has been
confirmed by renowned economists
Enrico Spolaore
Professor of Economics at the Universitat de Tufts (Massachusetts, Estats
Units). Co-author with Alberto Alesina, of The Size of Nations (2003)
«An independent Catalonia would be as economically viable as any other
country»
Gary Stanley Becker
Nobel Prize in Economics in 1992. Member of the National Bureau of Economic
Research and professor at the universities of Chicago and Columbia
“The independence of Catalonia from the rest of Spain would not mean
economic disaster for the Catalan region”
Erling Kydland
Nobel Prize in Economics in 2004. Professor at the University of California
“If Catalonia were independent it would create the same level of confidence that
has allowed Ireland to grow so dramatically in the last 20 years”
Source: uoc.edu, economista.es, CNA.com
21
22. Among others, because of the diversified and value Catalan
model versus the Spanish centralized and speculative
model
At an economic level, a Catalan independent state will be able to develop strategies
based on our strengths and weaknesses.
The Catalan model, very diversified, with thousands of small and medium enterprises,
is clearly different from the centralist Spanish model focused on financial, construction
and public utilities multinationals
The two models have nothing in common, and so, considering that there’s only one
state to manage these so different realities (besides other communities), and that the
Spanish mentality is so centralist, it is clear that the limited resources of the Spanish
state will be invested in those strategies that promote the Spanish model.
To promote the Catalan model is essential to have their own State. With an
independent State we can further enhance the areas in which we still maintain
European leadership (food, biomedical, pharmaceutical) and lead new hubs from
technology start-ups that are created continuously, but often can not grow due to lack
of funding and support.
22
23. The Spanish economic model is not sustainable and sinks,
even having Catalonia within Spain
Catalonia, with just over 7 million inhabitants, has more than 600,000 companies. The
distribution of these firms by sector shows a modern economy, with an important
weight of the services sectors and a good presence of industry and technology.
Regarding the size of Catalan companies, should be noted the importance of SMEs,
representing 99% of the total number, with a very significant presence of autonomous.
Obviously the weight of SMEs in GDP is lower (52.9%) than large companies, but is a
real economic grid that maintains the country and creates jobs.
This structure is not similar overall Spain. Spanish governments are clearly in favor of
big multinational companies, especially in regulated industries, banking and
construction, and those are the ones lobbying and exercising real pressure on the
government.
In recent years there has been a clear collusion between the Spanish government and
these large companies, many of which are included in the lobby called the Puente
Aereo Forum. We could say that these companies had not noticed the crisis, often
through government aid, while the SMEs are clearly unassisted.
But Bankia and Iberia have highlighted the inconsistency
of some of these companies that had to conquer the world.
They were a great illusion.
“Cap on s’encamina Espanya”, CCN, febrer 2013
23
24. European states that have recently become independent have
grown more than twice the average of the European Union
GDP Growth
European countries that became
independent recently
(Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia,
Latvia, Slovenia, Estonia)
European Union
countries average
Source: Eurostat
http://www.jordipujol.cat/ca/jp/articles/11313
“… A hores d’ara a Catalunya aquest és un
tema ja força estudiat per gent competent. Per
exemple, per Jacint Ros Hombravella a La
viabilitat econòmica de la independència de
Catalunya, per Modest Guinjoan i Xavier
Quadras a Balanç econòmic de la
independència o a Les raons econòmiques
de la independència del Cercle Català de
Negocis. Estudis que no amaguen els
problemes que en un primer moment hi podria
haver –com n’hi va haver a Finlàndia, a
Estònia, a Eslovènia o a Àustria mateix quan
es va desfer l’Imperi austrohongarès–, però
que es podrien superar com s’han superat en
aquests casos. Per cert, brillantment…”
24
25. S’ha calculat l’increment del PIB i el pressupost de la
Generalitat de la Catalunya independent a través dels
multiplicadors fiscals
Impact on Generalitat’s budget
Considerations
The elimination of the fiscal deficit will
allow the Catalan Government to
significantly increase their income during
the early years of the Catalan State.
It has been considered that after 5 years
the effects of the lack of fiscal deficit will
loose their impact on the Catalan
Government income.
At the same time there may be a Spanish
trade boycott to certain Catalan products.
A boycott has been considered:
These two factors have been considered in
the calculation of the Catalan
Government's Budget, calculations based
on two studies:
Year 1: High
Year 2: Moderate
Year 3 and later: Residual
“Macroeconomic effects of catalan fiscal
deficit with the spanish state (2002-2010)”,
Tremosa i Pons
“Sense Espanya”, Guinjoan i Cuadras
Given the current economic crisis it has
been considered that a part of the
additional income will be used for nonproductive items.
The overall result of the absence of fiscal
deficit and the boycott on the income of the
Catalan Government are:
Year 1: 5,1% of additional income
Year 2: 7,3% of additional income
Year 3: 8,4% of additional income
The effect of the boycott in a reduction in
the VAT collection has also been
considered:
Year 1: 4,0 %
Year 2: 2,5%
Year 3: 1,0%
25
26. The GDP growth is given by the largest investment in
infrastructure by the increase in domestic demand and the
increase the budget of the Catalan Government
Catalonia’s GDP
(thousand million Euros)
+5,3%
+6,0%
-0,5%
+1,2%
+3,1%
+4,8%
In the next four years of being an independent state, the Catalan GDP
growth will average 2.25% per year within the forecast
of the EU and OECD (0,9%-2,2%)
Source: http://stats.oecd.org/, http://www.conference-board.org/data/globaloutlook.cfm, estudi
CCN: “Els països petits son viables econòmicament”, “El pressupost del Estat Català 2013-2016”
26
27. The Catalan State would be the 4th country with the highest
GDP per capita in Europe
European countries GDP per càpita 2011
(100 = European average)
Noruega
189
Suïssa
151
Holanda
131
Catalunya Estat
129
Àustria
129
Suècia
126
Dinamarca
125
Bèlgica
118
Findlàndia
116
Sources: Eurostat GDP per capita in PPS, Anàlisi CCN
27
28. Trade balance: estimates of the effects of a possible boycott to
exports to Spain
Consumer Products (a)
16,7%
34%
Sales to
Spain
60%
50%
Max. Impact of
Recovery
the boycott on other markets
sales *
10,2%
Effect on
Catalan
GDP
13,3%
3,06%
GDP Loss
Capital goods (b)
(a) importance 1/3 x 0,5)=16,7% consumer products
(b) importance 2/3 x 0,2)=13,3% capital goods
* Maximum probability: 100% exports SP - (40% Multinationals in Catalunya) = 60%
Source: Pol Antràs i Jaume Ventura.
28
29. Income corresponding to the Catalan economy would increase
from the beginning of independence
No hi ha risc d’exclusió econòmica
Net Profit with an
independent State
Average yearly
plundering of
CAT
- 8,5 %
GDP
+ 8,5 %
GDP
40% population
20% businesses
- 4 % GDP
+ 4,5 %
GDP
30% population
15% businesses
- 3 % GDP
+ 5,5 %
GDP
20% population
10% businesses
- 2 % GDP
+ 6,5 %
GDP
¿Trade boycott?
The study of Modest Guinjoan i Xavier Stables (Sense Espanya, Ed. Pòrtic), analyzes
several historical examples and the structure of trade in raw materials, semi-finished and
finished, based on the input-output tables of 2005 and concludes that in the case of
maximum boycott, we'll recover more than 4.5% of Catalan GDP.
29
30. Boycott scenarios foresee a boycott of short duration and
compensable by the Catalan State
Even a direct survey done on the Spanish population shows that a boycott for political
issues would not in any case be followed by the majority, it would reach 20% of the
population.
Generalized boycotts are not feasible:
The origin of many products is unknown.
Not all the products we offer have alternatives with a similar price and quality manufactured
outside of Catalan territory.
The relationship of the consumer of the final product and the one with the raw materials
buyer are different. For the later, the profitability criteria are more important than political.
In short, the possible boycott can be inconvenient, especially in some areas, but in
general it should not be a problem greater than the direct benefits of achieving an
independent State. In the medium term, indirect effects will be even more important
and the effect of a possible boycott may be reduced up until practically disappearing.
30
31. The capacity and financial soundness of the Catalan
Government makes us a leading country in Europe
After 7 years
without fiscal
plundering, there
would be no debt
but a surplus of
84,968 MMEUR
Catalonia generates enough wealth to become a net contributor to the EU, reduce
debt faster and provide services and infrastructure for its citizens, not being
permanently blocked by Spain.
Banc d’Espanya, A.Castells, Departament d’Economia i Finances de la
Generalitat de Catalunya 7.11.2009 - Generalitat de Catalunya Ecomomia i
Coneixement
31
32. The Catalan State will be able to reduce the current high tax
burden, reducing the average rate of social contributions,
income tax and corporation tax by 10% in 3 years
Income from direct taxes
(million Euros)
7 points
reduction of
average
rate
Heritage, inheritance and donations
Corporation taxes
3 points
reduction of
average
rate
5 points
reduction of
average
rate
5 points
reduction of
average
rate
5 points
reduction of
average
rate
2,5 points
reduction of
average
rate
Source: CCN: “Pressupost del estat català 2013-16”
Social security
contributions
2,5 points
reduction of
average
rate
Income Tax
32
33. During the first years, the public deficit would be higher
than the one set by the European Union (3%), but would
rapidly fall to 1,4% by 2018
Public Deficit on GDP of Catalonia
The deficit increases in the first 2-3
years because taxes are reduced
and pensions are increased (3% of
GDP)
Source: CCN: “Pressupost del estat català 2013-16”
33
34. Catalonia will have a debt level of 80%, below the European
average (85%)
Evaluation and guarantee of the Catalan State may vary dramatically. Over 16,000
million euros of the fiscal deficit with Spain would be counted as income, the multipliers
would have a positive effect on the economy, higher than the initial impact of the tax
gain, it might even reduce the tax burden with the expected increase in consumption and
investment, affecting the economy and employment levels, as well as allowing the
improvement of social policies.
During the first years, the public deficit would be higher than the one set by the
European Union (3%), but would rapidly fall to 1,4% by 2018.
Source: CCN: “Pressupost del estat català 2013-16”
34
35. Catalonia has favorable indicators to get a pretty good credit,
among AA and AAA, when it becomes a state
Catalonia has favorable indicators to get a pretty high credit.
The initial classification of the Catalan state can be between AA and AAA.
Countries with a AA/AA+ rate had (by 15th August 2012) an interest rate between 2% and 3,5%
and and average 2,44%.
So Catalonia could see its interests to be paid reduced from the current +6% (and 4% average) to
near 2,5 - 3%
Figure represents only the relative position from best (1) to worst in the considered group for each economic variable analyzed
Source:
CCN: “La ratio del deute sobirà de Catalunya”
35
36. With this level of debt and deficit, the risk premium of the
Catalan state will be low (about 140 points), similar to
Belgium
Country
Suïssa
Japó
Dinamarca
Suècia
Alemanya
Finlàndia
Regne Unit
EUA
Holanda
Canadà
Àustria
Noruega
França
Rep. Txeca
Bèlgica
Catalunya
Xina
Austràlia
Malaisia
Nova Zelanda
Polònia
Itàlia
Espanya
Hongria
Portugal
Grècia
Source:
Rate
Interest
S&P
AAA
AAAAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AA+
AAA
AAA
AA+
AAA
AA+
AAAA
AA/AAA
AAAAA
A-
Fitch
AAA
A+
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
AAA
A+
AA
AA/AAA
A+
AAA
A-
Moody's
Aaa
Aa3
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
Aaa
A1
Aa3
Aa3
Aa3
Aaa
A3
AA
AA
Aaa
3,684
ABBB+
BBB+
BB+
BB
SD
AABBB
BB+
BB+
CCC
A2
Baa2
Baa3
Ba1
Ba3
C
Risk premium
5,014
5,804
6,704
7,454
9,954
24,564
0,634
0,854
1,284
1,514
1,534
1,644
1,674
1,804
1,834
1,924
1,974
2,094
2,144
2,464
2,614
2,750
3,374
3,394
3,484
CCN: “La ratio del deute sobirà de Catalunya”
36
37. The Catalan financial system will contribute to the economic
recovery by reactivating credit through the Catalan central
bank
The Catalan financial system now controls a 19:24% of deposits and 17:22% of loans in
Spain and two of the most creditworthy banks with core capital of> 10% (CaixaBank and
Sabadell) are Catalan.
The M-3 money mass fell by 5% on average. The recovery of the fiscal deficit authorizes
the Government to design systems to stimulate the economy and revive the credit
through the public banking to recover the money supply to generate growth after a fall in
the consumption of 4 points.
The money supply is linked to production and consumption. Growing economic activity
would increase the money supply, the proof is that the M3 Eurozone fell by 0.9% between
10/11-2012.
37
38. The change in income and expenses will lead to a positive
primary balance adjusted by the economic cycle
(a)
Primary balance (austerity reached)
income tax
modified public spending
Positive comparison of Catalonia with other countries , adjusted by the cycle, the
generation of GDP and the allocation of total income and expenditure from Catalonia with
its own state with the information contained in the projection of the Catalan State budget
Catalan.
(a) The tax increase is not attributed to the tax burden. Is attributed to the elimination of the fiscal
deficit caused by the tax forfeiture of Spain.
Source: Fiscal Monitor october 2012 I.M.F.
38
39. This will result in a tax burden lower than 35%, among the
lowest in Europe
Tax burden over Catalonia’s GDP
Source:
CCN: “Pressupost del estat català 2013-16”
39
40. The unemployment rate for the Catalan State has been
calculated using three different methods
1
Mathematical
method
Applying statistical methods for the significant variables, we obtained a statistical model
By applying this model on data from Catalonia, we obtain the unemployment rate for the
Catalan State
2
Statistical Method
Through statistical analysis of data from the OECD, we have determined the variables that
influence the unemployment rate in a country
There is a direct mathematical relationship between government spending and GDP of a
country
In the Catalan State, the absence of plundering will allow greater spending
Applying Pons and Tremosa’s method of autoregressive values (2002) in a Catalan State
not suffering plundering, we get the unemployment rate
From unemployment in countries with similar magnitudes in Catalonia, we deduce which
would be the unemployment rate for the Catalan State
3
Comparative
method
Font: CCN: “L’atur a la Catalunya estat”
40
41. Comparing the three methods used to estimate the
unemployment rate in the Catalan State we conclude that it
would be around 12% for the 2013-16 period
Unemployment rate in the Catalan State
Unemployment rate in Catalonia
If we continue being in Spain the unemployment rate will be over 25%
41
42. In conclusion, the Catalan state is viable, prosperous, and will
improve quality of life and competitiveness of Catalan
companies
Catalonia, as a sovereign state, will be one of the most prosperous and
solvent countries in Europe
The national debt of the Catalan state will be less than the average for the
European Union and the risk premium will be similar to that of Belgium
The Catalan Government will multiply its revenue by 2.3
This revenue will allow:
Cover costs associated with the infrastructures of state
Increase the budget for all departments
Cover unforeseen as a possible trade boycott
Reduce the tax burden
Develop the necessary infrastructure for the country
Supporting innovation and internationalization of Catalan companies
Contribute funds to the European Union
Guarantee the payment of pensions
42
43. ii.
Analysis of the demographic environment with
an independent state
Population growth rates
Life Expectancy
Population pyramid
Emigration abroad
43
44. Catalonia is part of a large group of nations which range
between 8 and 12 million inhabitants
Catalonia has a population
similar to that of Sweden
and Switzerland, and higher
than that of Denmark,
Finland and Norway
Between 60 and 80 million
Between 35 and 40 million
Between 15 and 20 million
Between 8 and 12 million
Between 5 and 6 million
Between 1 and 3 million
Up to 1 million
Source: Eurostat
44
45. Catalonia's population is estimated to exceed 8 million by
2020 and to reach almost 9 million by 2040
Source: Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya
45
46. Catalonia's population has a younger age component than
the Spanish one
The weight of the 20-39 years range is higher than the European average.
The overall percentage of younger age gives Catalonia more time to make changes
to public and private programs to ensure the future pensions of Catalan people.
Sources: Dades 2011, Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya, Instituto Nacional de Estadística Español, Eurostat
46
47. The growth rate of the population of Catalonia is higher
than in Spain. This difference is much clearer when we
compare it with the one of the European Union
Younger age components and higher growth rates generate less cash tensions on
the Catalan pensions system
Sources: Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya, Instituto Nacional de Estadística Español, Eurostat
47
48. The growth of migration (around 150,000 inhabitants / year)
has stopped in recent years because of the crisis. In recent
years, the migration balance was almost neutral.
Only one out of three immigrants came from
Europe, two-thirds come from far away continents.
In the last three years this distribution has been
very stable.
Europa UE
Amèrica
Europa no UE
Àsia/Oceania
Àfrica
Source: Institut d’Estadística de Catalunya
48
49. iii. Analysis of the legislative environment with an
independent state. Changes to be expected.
New political system
Labor
Fiscal
Civil
Immigration
49
50. The first statement of the Catalan state must restore our
sovereignty and international subject
An Independence Declaration
A statement on the will to reinstate Catalonia’s sovereignty
A declaration of the will to consider Catalonia as an heir and
successor of the Spanish State, and a continuator of its
monetary sovereignty.
A declaration in favor of Peace, Rule of Law, Democracy and
Human Rights, specifically referencing the Letter of Human
Rights, the UE Letter of Fundamental Rights and the European
Council agreement to protect national minorities, among others
50
51. The independence declaration must be public and formal
and has to include a set of statements
A statement on the pro-European will, and the guarantee that
European law will be applied in Catalonia.
Accession to Helsinki’s Final Act (1975), the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty, the Purposes and Principles in the
Charter of the United Nations: Chapter I, among other law
rules.
A call in favor of Catalonia’s readmission in the International
Community.
The opening of a constituent process and the drafting and
adoption of the Catalan Constitution by referendum in
Catalonia, where among others, it will be defined:
State organizations.
Territorial organization.
Rights and duties of Catalan people
Language status
51
52. The full legislative capacity will allow to achieve the overall
objectives of Catalan society
Pass a law of legal transience
New legislation
Ensure the functioning of the State
Ensure energy supply
Adapt EU directives
Adapt Spanish legislation
Legislative adaption to our social and economic model:
Reduce unemployment to European levels : Lower from 24% to 11%.
Increase opportunities for young people. Go from 47% to 20% youth
unemployment
Reaching an R & D between 2% and 3% of GDP
Reach 20% of GDP in the industrial and energy sectors
Attracting and retaining multinationals
Promote patents in universities and business
Simplify the process of business creation. Minimize procedures and time
needed to start a business
52
53. It will be possible to legislate to strengthen the priorities of
the Catalan economic fabric for the benefit of all
Entrepreneurship Law
Training to adapt workers to new jobs
Collaboration Plans University
mentoring, training students
Specific training in entrepreneurship at universities and business schools
Facilitate access to credit and markets
Setting up micro-financing for start-ups
Improve the taxation on investment and reduce and simplify taxes for SMEs
Establish a quota for public acquisitions to SMEs for all public bodies
Facilitate transfer of business (as Re-empresa of CECOT)
Reduce or eliminate penalties for failure (Second Chance Act)
Administrative simplification
Promote SMEs by reducing the size of contracts
-
Business
(including
microenterprises),
53
54. The public administration will change to a digital and agile
21st Century model with a modern labor legislation
Public Administration
The basis of legal regulation for
public administrations and their
public workers (...), the common
administrative procedures, (...)
and the responsability system of
all public agencies.
21st century public workers statute
Simplify relations with the administration, reducing paperwork,
bureaucracy and costs
Digitalization of administration
Labor legislation
New work contract
Insolvency Law
Autonomous worker statute
New unemployment insurance, community work according to
the profile of the unemployed
54
55. The Catalan financial system will have direct access to ECB
and will have liquidity to finance sales of Catalan exporters
to the world
Monetary system: Currency
convertibility and exchange, basis
of credit planning, banking and
insurance.
Customs regime and foreign trade.
International agreements with other European countries
to benefit on economies of scale and synergies
(France, The Netherlands, Finland, Ireland...)
Catalan Agency for International Expansion
“Product of Catalunya”,“Made in Catalonia”:
international quality brands
Adequacy of the credit market
ICF Catalan Public Bank
Payment on account Law
Outing of housing inventory
The largest Catalan banks (CaixaBank B.Sabadell) have been evaluated positively by
the EU and are classified as systemic with CoreCapital> 10% assets. This involves
direct liquidity through the Catalan Central Bank .
The consolidation of the network ACC1Ó abroad and the empowering of the
“Catalonia” brand, leveraged on the famous "Barcelona“, will multiply our world trading
capacity.
55
56. The Catalan State will enable to revive the economy with an
overall reduction of taxes on the economic activity
Treasury and
Government debt
Corporate taxes, Income taxes
VAT
Taxes on fuel
Rates reduction
Minimum higher than the current one
Single rate applicable up to certain level of labor
income
Deduction to self-employed for hiring
Basic legislation and
Social Security
economic regulation
Reduce Social Security contributions
Create the Catalan Pension Reserve Fund
Catalonia, as an European country with the ability and willingness to reinvest the
general surplus in their own economy, would produce huge economic and social
benefits, being one of the best countries in the European Union for their benefit and for
the benefit of its zone of influence.
56
57. The Catalan Government will be able to set up a plan to
solve the infrastructures blocking generated by Spain
(...); ports of general interest; airports of general
interest, control of airspace, traffic and air
transportion, meteorological services and aircraft
registration.
Fourth runway at the El Prat Airport
Railways and land transport; the general
communications regulation; traffic and motor
vehicle circulation; Post and telecommunications;
aerial cables, submarine and radio
communications.
Mediterranean Corridor to Europe
Improve motorway network
Medium distance trains linking the
population centers of Catalonia
57
58. The Government will be able to take specific measures
immediately to restore our competitiveness and
solvency
Competitiveness
• Information society.
• Science, R+D.
• SMEs internationalization.
• Education. English.
• Reduction of administrative
burdens.
Environment
• Energy and environmental
policies.
• CO2 Emission-reduction.
• Efficient infrastructures and
transportation.
Fiscal measures:
• Rental market: equal treatment
with property.
• Fiscal measures to reduce the
deficit.
• Lower taxes to R+D and
environmental activities.
Fiscal sustainability
• The Catalan State reports
quarterly to the EU Council of Tax
Policy
• Monitoring and correction of the
deficits.
• Debt / GDP with a deficit of 1, 5%
to arrive at the figure of 23% in
2013.
58
59. Index
1. Objectives of the business plan for Catalan SMEs
2. Environment Analysis
i.
Economic (macro)
ii.
Demographic
iii.
Legal
3. Consumer-Customers-Markets
4. Differential social features
5. Catalan State SWOT and Executive summary
6. Annexes
59
60. 3.
Consumers. Clients-Markets: Consumption
Variables
Attractiveness and competitiveness of the Catalan business
sector to foreign direct investment
Industry markets (B2B)
Consumers markets (B2C)
Types of consumer segmentation
Public demand
New opportunities for B2B markets from being an
independent State
New opportunities for B2C markets from being an
independent State
60
61. Catalonia is a favorite destination for foreign direct
investment (FDI)
Despite the current situation of Catalonia, the investment is ready for its potential growth,
now conditioned by the current economic crisis and the stimulus associated with the
dumping of Spain when granting public funds to locations in the capital of Spain.
But Catalonia has been able to maintain its GDP i is a magnet for foreign direct
investment priority projects (FDI).
2013 presents an opportunity to invest at Catalonia, given the low labor costs, increased
productivity and competitiveness of established companies with proven remarkable
capacity for exports.
However, it is necessary to strengthen the development of non-bank financial products,
needed in the necessary deleveraging of the financial system..
61
62. Catalonia is a geostrategic region as a platform for
multinationals
In the 2006-2010 period the number of foreign companies in Catalonia grew by 13% to
reaching, by the end of 2010, a total of 3,381 companies, in a scenario where global
flows of foreign direct investment are drawing a new international scene.
It is remarkable the concentration of foreign companies in Catalonia in relation to the
implemented in Spain. This is particularly pronounced in the case of Japanese firms
(85%), Italian (67%), American and French (63% and 62%, respectively).
Foreign
investment in
Catalonia with a
total of 3,381
companies and
corporations
62
63. We have a logistics platform for international trade with a
high growth potential
The geostrategic location of Catalonia, especially aimed at economic areas in Asia, with
the ports of Barcelona and Tarragona in the Mediterranean and its access to the
European logistics can attract investment and profits in the medium term for the whole
area of economic influence that it generates.
Among other infrastructures it is important to consider the Hutchinson Port Holdings,
which will be able to move up to 2.65 million TEUs, Barcelona's airport network
(International Hub), Reus, Girona and Lleida Alguaire; High speed train connections and
future connection for goods conducted by the EU that connects the major industrial
centers of the EU's Mediterranean coast.
The Barcelona area concentrates the interest in the location of centers specializing in
global business functions or lines and shared service centers. Logistics, technology of
information and communications, biotechnology ... link to creativity, design and culture,
tourism and service sectors for people
with a high added value.
63
64. Investors especially appreciate the ability to service, the
exporting vocation, training, branding and flexibility
Alba synchrotron, UPC o having the 4rt (IESE) and 7th
(ESADE) Global MBA allows Catalonia to be very suitable for
analytical services, development and testing.
Value factors are the ability to export, industrial development,
specialized human capital, the level of infrastructures the
location and the legal ease to invest. Along with the
"Barcelona" brand, adding value and prestige to the
investment.
Catalonia is an economy relatively well positioned within the
EU. By their level of GDP per capita (PPS terms) it has already
been 20% above the average for the EU-27.
Fira de Barcelona is a gateway to world trade. Innovative
economic sectors such as telecommunications business can
enjoy Mobile World Congress in Barcelona that makes of
Barcelona the world capital of the sector.
64
65. Catalonia as a country will have the flexibility that now has
not to position itself competitively and successfully in the
world
International investors evaluate with a strategic vision the attractiveness and
competitiveness of Catalonia, together with its transparency to foreign trade and its
logistical potential.
The smaller states are more effective in a world without barriers, so the viability of an
economy depends on the degree of financial transparency. Nowadays the ease of
movement of people from one state to another state makes the size of a State less
important.
Also, both economic theory and empirical evidence indicate that the size of a country
does not have much influence on economic growth, as demonstrated by countries like
Denmark, Austria, Norway, the Netherlands and Switzerland, for example.
65
66. Analysis of markets: consumers, companies and
changes to come when becoming an independent State
All companies need to achieve a reliable and cost-effective demand for their
products or services.
If the company sells products / services of final consumption, their demand comes
from customers who are individuals (or families), we are in the Consumer Market.
If the company sells to other companies (products / services) and their demand
comes from these other companies, within a given supply chain (supply chain), or
even the product is, in essence, for final consumption (eg Flam), if the company
produces for another that sells it under its own brand, we are in the Industrial
Market.
Overall another distinction that affects business is the one between domestic
market or exports.
In the current environment of economic globalization it is difficult for a company to
know where’s the final consumption within the supply chain and under what criteria
purchase decisions are made.
In the present case a significant status change would take place.
66
67. Customer of industrial markets value business efficiency
and complete value offer
Industrial Products/Services companies depend on the supply decisions and
industry agreements with their customers (other industry companies), that is within
their supply chain and/or the overall relationships between industry companies.
They may also find that their relationship framework, trade agreements, technical
standards, partnerships, etc ... vary.
And, therefore, every company must re-examine the advantages and
disadvantages of a new situation.
In general, the client company is increasingly aware that their competitiveness is
based on working with maximum efficiency (innovating and improving products,
processes and marketing), and expects from their suppliers a relationship that
adds value in the whole relationship, not just the mere transaction : Product
received – Price paid.
67
68. Industrial markets integrate their distribution and export in
a globalized world
Therefore, the aim should be to maintain and expand industrial relations and longterm partnerships that,, adding value to the buyer based on a complete "value
proposition" (not just "product"), make it very difficult for the customer to change to
another provider. Harnessing the power of the whole framework of industrial
relations.
A fundamental aspect of a country is its industrial production capacity, the later
distribution later in domestic sales and exports.
Catalonia generates more than 86,000 million within its expanded industrial sector.
A més a més del volum de negoci agregat (que és superior a uns quants membres
actuals de la EU), és molt important ser conscient té un conjunt ben diversificat i
equilibrat de capacitats tecnològiques i productives que es complementen i un alt
nivell d’internacionalització i d’exportació.
Catalonia has created a powerful network of contacts and relationships with
customers and suppliers by the values of quality, reliability and appropriate prices.
68
69. Catalonia generates more than 86,000 million within its
expanded industrial sector
Catalunya
C.N.A.E2009
10-11-12
13-14
15
16
17-18
19-20-21
22
23
24
25
26-27
28
29-30
31-32
33
35
Milers €
%
TOTAL
Alimentació, begudes i tabac
Textil i confecció
Cuir i calçat
Fusta i suro
Paper, arts gràfiques i reproducció de suports gravats
86.035.898 100,0
17.919.482 20,8
2.896.498
3,4
372.244
0,4
566.029
0,7
4.271.206
5,0
Coqueríes, refi, químiques i productes farmaceutics
Manufactures de cautxú i plàstics
Productes minerals no metàlics
Producció, 1ª transformació i fundició de metalls
Productes metàlics
21.687.327
3.695.025
1.846.941
3.839.609
5.072.822
25,2
4,3
2,2
4,5
5,9
Productes informàtics, electrònics, òptics i elèctrics
Maquinaria i equipament
Material de transport
Mobles i altres industries manufactureres
Reparació e instal·lació de maquinaria i equipament
Producció d’energía eléctrica, gas i vapor
3.525.320
3.703.011
11.198.299
1.435.689
1.622.670
2.383.725
4,1
4,3
13,0
1,7
1,9
2,8
In the field of Industrial Products Marketing, the existence for each company of a
network of contacts, relationships, agreements with other institutions and companies
has been confirmed for years as a critical factor in industrial competitiveness (as an
outcome of various strategic decisions, level of costs, quality, innovation, trade
capacity, product extension, etc ..)
Vendes 2011 sectors industrials+la seva distribució
69
70. Globalization has pushed sales outside Catalonia and
B2B trade
Tendència
14,00%
12,69%
11,28%
12,00%
9,87%
10,00%
8,17%
8,00%
8,46%
2012
2013
6,99%
6,00%
4,73%
5,31%
4,00%
2,25%
2,00%
0,00%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2014
2015
2016
Saldo exterior/PIB
The trade balance includes total sales outside of Catalonia (Spain and the world). We
have observed a consolitated trend to replace sales in Spain for sale in the rest of the
world, leading our economy to the desired situation of selling less to a market in downturn
who’s also a bad payer, and sell more to other countries with far more trade opportunities.
The trend for 2013-2016 doesn’t take into account the fiscal multipliers of independence,
which implies an increase in the projected numbers.
70
71. An independent Catalan State will dramatically improve
the competitive environment for industrial markets
The complete offer of value no longer depends only on companies. In the current
context of a globalized economy increasingly based on knowledge, relationships
between companies, clusters, logistics chains, the intelligent use of ICT, etc. ... the
social, institutional and infrastructure framework is crucial.
We are thinking on a Framework that provides companies with:
An approach to public investment decisions that favor the industrial fabric
A network of Catalan ports and airports truly managed according to the needs
of our industry
The improvement of the general level of education
Universities endowed enough to be the first step of R & D
A Mediterranean rail corridor that opens all Mediterranean coast to agricultural
and manufactured products
A tax system that helps companies to produce wealth and distribute it fairly
State support to the export industry
Reasonable administrative costs
71
72. Consumer markets can address local or global sales in a
new framework of state support
The company that manufactures consumers good may find that its client changes the
perception of the product because of its origin: in some markets positively, in others
negatively.
It can also find that their relationship framework, commercial agreements, technical
rules, etc ... vary. Or that distribution behaves under global criteria and does not give
the final costumer the chance to decide.
Therefore, each company will have to re-examine the advantages and disadvantages
of the new situation.
But in any case, can a company remain only in its domestic market, it being
Catalonia or the whole peninsula, even with a quality product and reasonable price?
Usually not. It is necessary to open up to global markets.
And, ¿success on those markets depends only on the copany and its efforts?
No, it depends a lot on the context in which it works, that must provide a good
reputation for the country, efficient and not costly logistic infrastructures, a cultural
environment that promotes innovation, good communication networks, technical and
information services that facilitate efficient supply chains, social and institutional
structures that promote good work, etc...
72
73. The growth of consumer markets will be given by the
increase of per capita GDP and decreased unemployment
70,0%
160.000
65,0%
60,0%
56,2% 55,8% 57,0% 57,0%
57,6%
58,9%
60,2%
61,5%
62,9%
64,3%
140.000
149.383
136.662
125.025
120.000
55,0%
100.000
50,0%
80.000
45,0%
60.000
40,0%
40.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% Despesa en consum de les llars /PIB
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Despesa en consum de les llars (€)
The forecast already takes into account possible effect of a change in the balance of trade
with Spain on the demand increase according to the study about "the 2013-2016 Catalan
State budget" carried out by CCN
The effect of the average increase in GDP expected for the next 4 years (2.25%) in
consumption, goes from 1, 3 to 1% in 2012, to 45% in 2017
73
74. The segmentation of the population into the different
consumer types allows us to analyze buying trends
And all this to convince a future consumer which is more aware of the pairing Price /
Quality, which tends to extends to Price / Quality / Utility / Sustainability, which promotes
the concept of proximity (real or virtual), and values the product as much as the
experience it provides.
All the framework mentioned before is crucial: social, institutional and infrastructures.
To learn the consumption methods of a society, we can describe and quantify the social
groups that form it, according to their orientations, life goals or lifestyles.
Noms Sigma
Burgesia Establerta
Tradicionals
Populars precaris
Escaladors
Consumidors adaptats
Vanguardistes
Progressistes acomodats
Rebels reactius
Postmoderns
Total
Source: Sinus sociovision
Catalunya
9%
15%
10%
10%
15%
7%
15%
9%
11%
100%
74
75. Catalonia is a particularly attractive market for products /
services intended for a market inclined to purchase
products with high added value
The measure of social status vs. the orientation of basic values has proven to be an
optimal way of representing these groups :
The social axis makes a formal classification summarizing social objective
characteristics: level of education, type of employment, income...
The values axis represents the classification of social groups according to different
lifestyles, desires and goals, spirituality / religion, attitudes towards work, efficiency,
and many others.
In the next two maps we describe which is the distribution of Catalan and Spanish
society according to these axes.
The most notable is that Catalonia is a particularly attractive market for companies that
offer products / services intended for customers who belong to more progressive and
modern social groups and who have a higher purchasing power. A market predisposed
to buy products with high added value.
A particularly profitable market no company would want to renounce to.
75
