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The	
  Magic	
  Barrier	
  of	
  	
  
Recommender	
  Systems:	
  
No	
  Magic,	
  Just	
  ra;ngs	
  
Alejandro	
  Bellogín,	
  Alan	
  Said,	
  Arjen	
  de	
  Vries	
  
@abellogin,	
  @alansaid,	
  @arjenpdevries	
  
	
  
UMAP	
  2014	
  
2014-­‐07-­‐08	
  
What	
  is	
  the	
  magic	
  barrier?	
  
2	
  
The	
  Magic	
  Barrier	
  
The	
  upper	
  bound	
  on	
  recommenda;on	
  
accuracy	
  	
  
Recommenda;on	
  accuracy	
  is	
  only	
  as	
  
good	
  as	
  the	
  quality	
  of	
  the	
  underlying	
  
data	
  
Users	
  are	
  noisy	
  /	
  incoherent	
  in	
  their	
  
ra;ng	
  behavior	
  
	
  
3	
  
How	
  to	
  find	
  the	
  magic	
  
barrier?	
  
1.  Collect	
  infinite	
  re-­‐ra;ngs	
  for	
  each	
  
item	
  from	
  your	
  users.	
  
2.  Find	
  standard	
  devia;on	
  of	
  ra;ng/
re-­‐ra;ng	
  inconsistencies	
  (noise)	
  
[Said	
  et	
  al.	
  UMAP	
  ‘12]	
  
Realis;cally,	
  an	
  infinite	
  amount	
  of	
  
re-­‐ra;ngs	
  is	
  not	
  probable	
  
4	
  
Coherence	
  
5	
  
What	
  is	
  coherence?	
  
Coherent	
  user	
  
e slightly different. Specifically, the user in Figure 1a gives more consisten
items sharing the same features, which in this case corresponds to the mov
s. In the long term we argue that such a user will have a more consistent (le
ehaviour, since her taste for each item feature seem to be well defined.
Action Comedy
Horror
(a) A coherent user (c(u) = 1.28)
Action Comedy
Horror
(b) A not coherent user (c(u) =
Incoherent	
  user	
  
htly different. Specifically, the user in Figure 1a gives more consistent rating
sharing the same features, which in this case corresponds to the movie’s gen
he long term we argue that such a user will have a more consistent (less noisy
ur, since her taste for each item feature seem to be well defined.
Action Comedy
Horror
A coherent user (c(u) = 1.28)
Action Comedy
Horror
(b) A not coherent user (c(u) = 5.95)
6	
  
DefiniAon	
  of	
  Coherence	
  
Ra;ng	
  consistency	
  within	
  a	
  feature	
  
space	
  (genres,	
  themes,	
  etc.)	
  
	
  
c u( )= − σ f
f ∈F
∑ u( )
σ f u( )= r u,i( )− rf u( )( )
2
i∈I u, f( )
∑
Item	
  features	
  
User’s	
  ra;ng	
  devia;on	
  within	
  a	
  feature	
  
7	
  
Ra;ng	
  devia;on	
  within	
  a	
  feature	
  space	
  
instead	
  of	
  
infinite	
  re-­‐ra;ngs	
  
Is	
  this	
  a	
  good	
  
es;mate	
  of	
  the	
  
magic	
  barrier?	
  
8	
  
Experiments	
  
EX1:	
  Is	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  a	
  good	
  
predictor	
  for	
  the	
  Magic	
  Barrier?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
EX2:	
  Can	
  we	
  use	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  to	
  
improve	
  recommenda;on	
  results?
Especially	
  when	
  we	
  do	
  not	
  have	
  re-­‐
ra;ngs/magic	
  barrier?	
  
	
  
9	
  
RaAng	
  Coherence	
  vs.	
  
Magic	
  Barrier	
  
Rank	
  users	
  according	
  to	
  magic	
  barrier/
ra;ng	
  coherence:	
  
•  High/low	
  magic	
  barrier	
  
•  Low/high	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  in	
  the	
  
“genre”	
  feature	
  space	
  
	
  
Find	
  correla;on	
  (Spearman)	
  between	
  
magic	
  barrier/coherence	
  ranking	
  
	
  
*Dataset	
  from	
  moviepilot.de,	
  contains	
  re-­‐ra;ngs	
  
from	
  306	
  users	
  [Said	
  et	
  al.	
  UMAP	
  ‘12]	
  
	
  
10	
  
Magic	
  Barrier	
  &	
  Ra;ng	
  Coherence	
  correla;on	
  
11	
  
Experiments	
  
EX1:	
  Is	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  a	
  good	
  
predictor	
  for	
  the	
  Magic	
  Barrier?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
EX2:	
  Can	
  we	
  use	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  to	
  
improve	
  recommenda;on	
  results?	
  
Especially	
  when	
  we	
  do	
  not	
  have	
  re-­‐
ra;ngs/magic	
  barrier?	
  
12	
  
Use	
  raAng	
  coherence	
  for	
  
recommendaAon	
  
Divide	
  users	
  into	
  coherent	
  and	
  
incoherent	
  –	
  with	
  higher	
  an	
  lower	
  
magic	
  barrier	
  
Movielens	
  1M	
  
	
  
Train	
  each	
  group	
  separately	
  
	
  
Evaluate	
  each	
  group	
  separately	
  
	
  
	
  
13	
  
RecommendaAon	
  and	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Algorithm:	
  K-­‐NN,	
  Pearson	
  
	
  
Training	
  sets	
  
•  “Easy”	
  users	
  split	
  
•  “Difficult”	
  users	
  split	
  
•  All	
  users	
  split	
  
	
  
Evalua;on	
  sets	
  
•  “Easy”	
  users	
  split	
  
•  “Difficult”	
  users	
  split	
  
•  All	
  users	
  split	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
14	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Comparisons	
  
	
  
All	
  -­‐	
  All	
  
All	
  –	
  Easy	
  
All	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
Easy	
  –	
  Easy	
  
Difficult	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
	
  
	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
RMSE:	
  1.090	
  
User	
  coverage:	
  100%	
  
	
  
15	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Comparisons	
  
	
  
All	
  -­‐	
  All	
  
All	
  –	
  Easy	
  
All	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
Easy	
  –	
  Easy	
  
Difficult	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
	
  
	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
RMSE:	
  0.974	
  
User	
  coverage:	
  50%	
  
	
  
16	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Comparisons	
  
	
  
All	
  -­‐	
  All	
  
All	
  –	
  Easy	
  
All	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
Easy	
  –	
  Easy	
  
Difficult	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
	
  
	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
RMSE:	
  1.195	
  
User	
  coverage:	
  50%	
  
	
  
17	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Comparisons	
  
	
  
All	
  -­‐	
  All	
  
All	
  –	
  Easy	
  
All	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
Easy	
  –	
  Easy	
  
Difficult	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
	
  
	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
RMSE:	
  0.933	
  
User	
  coverage:	
  50%	
  
	
  
18	
  
EvaluaAon	
  
Comparisons	
  
	
  
All	
  -­‐	
  All	
  
All	
  –	
  Easy	
  
All	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
Easy	
  –	
  Easy	
  
Difficult	
  –	
  Difficult	
  
	
  
	
  
Training	
  
Easy	
  
Training	
  
Difficult	
  
Test	
  
Easy	
  
Test	
  
Difficult	
  
RMSE:	
  1.226	
  
User	
  coverage:	
  50%	
  
	
  
19	
  
Results	
  
Subset	
   RMSE	
   User	
  Coverage	
  
All	
   1.090	
   100%	
  
All-­‐Easy	
   0.974	
   50%	
  
All-­‐Diff	
   1.195	
   50%	
  
Easy-­‐Easy	
   0.933	
   50%	
  
Diff-­‐Diff	
   1.226	
   50%	
  
20	
  
Results	
  
Subset	
   RMSE	
   User	
  Coverage	
  
All	
   1.090	
   100%	
  
All-­‐Easy	
   0.974	
   50%	
  (easy)	
  
All-­‐Diff	
   1.195	
   50%	
  (diff)	
  
Easy-­‐Easy	
   0.933	
   50%	
  (easy)	
  
Diff-­‐Diff	
   1.226	
   50%	
  (diff)	
  
RMSE	
  
average:	
  
1.084	
  
21	
  
Results	
  
Subset	
   RMSE	
   User	
  Coverage	
  
All	
   1.090	
   100%	
  
All-­‐Easy	
   0.974	
   50%	
  (easy)	
  
All-­‐Diff	
   1.195	
   50%	
  (diff)	
  
Easy-­‐Easy	
   0.933	
   50%	
  (easy)	
  
Diff-­‐Diff	
   1.226	
   50%	
  (diff)	
  
RMSE	
  
average:	
  
1.064	
  
22	
  
Experiments	
  
EX1:	
  Is	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  a	
  good	
  
predictor	
  for	
  the	
  Magic	
  Barrier?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
EX2:	
  Can	
  we	
  use	
  ra;ng	
  coherence	
  to	
  
improve	
  recommenda;on	
  results?	
  
Especially	
  when	
  we	
  do	
  not	
  have	
  re-­‐
ra;ngs/magic	
  barrier?	
  
23	
  
Conclusions	
  
Ra;ng	
  coherence	
  within	
  an	
  item’s	
  
feature	
  space	
  is	
  related	
  to	
  the	
  magic	
  
barrier	
  
	
  
Ra;ng	
  coherence	
  can	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  
predict	
  users’	
  ra;ng	
  inconsistencies	
  
	
  
A	
  user’s	
  ra;ng	
  inconsistencies	
  tell	
  us	
  
how	
  well	
  our	
  system	
  performs	
  for	
  that	
  
user	
  –	
  i.e.	
  whether	
  we	
  need	
  to	
  
op;mize	
  further	
  
24	
  
Thanks!	
  
	
  
Ques;ons?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
More	
  recommender	
  systems:	
  
www.recsyswiki.com	
  
	
  
25	
  
Image	
  credits	
  
•  Slide	
  1	
  -­‐	
  hqp://www.burdens.net.au/product/esf-­‐barriers	
  
•  Slide	
  2	
  -­‐	
  hqp://www.freepicturesweb.com/pictures/2010-­‐07/5881.html	
  
•  Slide	
  4	
  -­‐	
  hqp://redgannet.blogspot.nl/2010/08/moreletakloof-­‐johannesburg-­‐jnb.html	
  
•  Slide	
  5	
  -­‐	
  hqp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_devia;on#Interpreta;on_and_applica;on	
  
•  Slide	
  9,	
  12,	
  23	
  -­‐	
  hqp://www.withautodesk.com/html/science-­‐fair-­‐ideas-­‐for-­‐physical-­‐science-­‐inven;ons.html	
  
•  Slide	
  13	
  -­‐	
  hqp://fineartamerica.com/featured/16-­‐cogs-­‐les-­‐cunliffe.html	
  
•  Slide	
  24	
  -­‐	
  hqps://benchprep.com/blog/the-­‐ap-­‐english-­‐exam-­‐wri;ng-­‐compelling-­‐conclusions/	
  
26	
  

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The Magic Barrier of Recommender Systems: Rating Coherence Predicts Accuracy

  • 1. The  Magic  Barrier  of     Recommender  Systems:   No  Magic,  Just  ra;ngs   Alejandro  Bellogín,  Alan  Said,  Arjen  de  Vries   @abellogin,  @alansaid,  @arjenpdevries     UMAP  2014   2014-­‐07-­‐08  
  • 2. What  is  the  magic  barrier?   2  
  • 3. The  Magic  Barrier   The  upper  bound  on  recommenda;on   accuracy     Recommenda;on  accuracy  is  only  as   good  as  the  quality  of  the  underlying   data   Users  are  noisy  /  incoherent  in  their   ra;ng  behavior     3  
  • 4. How  to  find  the  magic   barrier?   1.  Collect  infinite  re-­‐ra;ngs  for  each   item  from  your  users.   2.  Find  standard  devia;on  of  ra;ng/ re-­‐ra;ng  inconsistencies  (noise)   [Said  et  al.  UMAP  ‘12]   Realis;cally,  an  infinite  amount  of   re-­‐ra;ngs  is  not  probable   4  
  • 6. What  is  coherence?   Coherent  user   e slightly different. Specifically, the user in Figure 1a gives more consisten items sharing the same features, which in this case corresponds to the mov s. In the long term we argue that such a user will have a more consistent (le ehaviour, since her taste for each item feature seem to be well defined. Action Comedy Horror (a) A coherent user (c(u) = 1.28) Action Comedy Horror (b) A not coherent user (c(u) = Incoherent  user   htly different. Specifically, the user in Figure 1a gives more consistent rating sharing the same features, which in this case corresponds to the movie’s gen he long term we argue that such a user will have a more consistent (less noisy ur, since her taste for each item feature seem to be well defined. Action Comedy Horror A coherent user (c(u) = 1.28) Action Comedy Horror (b) A not coherent user (c(u) = 5.95) 6  
  • 7. DefiniAon  of  Coherence   Ra;ng  consistency  within  a  feature   space  (genres,  themes,  etc.)     c u( )= − σ f f ∈F ∑ u( ) σ f u( )= r u,i( )− rf u( )( ) 2 i∈I u, f( ) ∑ Item  features   User’s  ra;ng  devia;on  within  a  feature   7  
  • 8. Ra;ng  devia;on  within  a  feature  space   instead  of   infinite  re-­‐ra;ngs   Is  this  a  good   es;mate  of  the   magic  barrier?   8  
  • 9. Experiments   EX1:  Is  ra;ng  coherence  a  good   predictor  for  the  Magic  Barrier?         EX2:  Can  we  use  ra;ng  coherence  to   improve  recommenda;on  results? Especially  when  we  do  not  have  re-­‐ ra;ngs/magic  barrier?     9  
  • 10. RaAng  Coherence  vs.   Magic  Barrier   Rank  users  according  to  magic  barrier/ ra;ng  coherence:   •  High/low  magic  barrier   •  Low/high  ra;ng  coherence  in  the   “genre”  feature  space     Find  correla;on  (Spearman)  between   magic  barrier/coherence  ranking     *Dataset  from  moviepilot.de,  contains  re-­‐ra;ngs   from  306  users  [Said  et  al.  UMAP  ‘12]     10  
  • 11. Magic  Barrier  &  Ra;ng  Coherence  correla;on   11  
  • 12. Experiments   EX1:  Is  ra;ng  coherence  a  good   predictor  for  the  Magic  Barrier?         EX2:  Can  we  use  ra;ng  coherence  to   improve  recommenda;on  results?   Especially  when  we  do  not  have  re-­‐ ra;ngs/magic  barrier?   12  
  • 13. Use  raAng  coherence  for   recommendaAon   Divide  users  into  coherent  and   incoherent  –  with  higher  an  lower   magic  barrier   Movielens  1M     Train  each  group  separately     Evaluate  each  group  separately       13  
  • 14. RecommendaAon  and   EvaluaAon   Algorithm:  K-­‐NN,  Pearson     Training  sets   •  “Easy”  users  split   •  “Difficult”  users  split   •  All  users  split     Evalua;on  sets   •  “Easy”  users  split   •  “Difficult”  users  split   •  All  users  split   Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   14  
  • 15. EvaluaAon   Comparisons     All  -­‐  All   All  –  Easy   All  –  Difficult   Easy  –  Easy   Difficult  –  Difficult       Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   RMSE:  1.090   User  coverage:  100%     15  
  • 16. EvaluaAon   Comparisons     All  -­‐  All   All  –  Easy   All  –  Difficult   Easy  –  Easy   Difficult  –  Difficult       Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   RMSE:  0.974   User  coverage:  50%     16  
  • 17. EvaluaAon   Comparisons     All  -­‐  All   All  –  Easy   All  –  Difficult   Easy  –  Easy   Difficult  –  Difficult       Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   RMSE:  1.195   User  coverage:  50%     17  
  • 18. EvaluaAon   Comparisons     All  -­‐  All   All  –  Easy   All  –  Difficult   Easy  –  Easy   Difficult  –  Difficult       Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   RMSE:  0.933   User  coverage:  50%     18  
  • 19. EvaluaAon   Comparisons     All  -­‐  All   All  –  Easy   All  –  Difficult   Easy  –  Easy   Difficult  –  Difficult       Training   Easy   Training   Difficult   Test   Easy   Test   Difficult   RMSE:  1.226   User  coverage:  50%     19  
  • 20. Results   Subset   RMSE   User  Coverage   All   1.090   100%   All-­‐Easy   0.974   50%   All-­‐Diff   1.195   50%   Easy-­‐Easy   0.933   50%   Diff-­‐Diff   1.226   50%   20  
  • 21. Results   Subset   RMSE   User  Coverage   All   1.090   100%   All-­‐Easy   0.974   50%  (easy)   All-­‐Diff   1.195   50%  (diff)   Easy-­‐Easy   0.933   50%  (easy)   Diff-­‐Diff   1.226   50%  (diff)   RMSE   average:   1.084   21  
  • 22. Results   Subset   RMSE   User  Coverage   All   1.090   100%   All-­‐Easy   0.974   50%  (easy)   All-­‐Diff   1.195   50%  (diff)   Easy-­‐Easy   0.933   50%  (easy)   Diff-­‐Diff   1.226   50%  (diff)   RMSE   average:   1.064   22  
  • 23. Experiments   EX1:  Is  ra;ng  coherence  a  good   predictor  for  the  Magic  Barrier?         EX2:  Can  we  use  ra;ng  coherence  to   improve  recommenda;on  results?   Especially  when  we  do  not  have  re-­‐ ra;ngs/magic  barrier?   23  
  • 24. Conclusions   Ra;ng  coherence  within  an  item’s   feature  space  is  related  to  the  magic   barrier     Ra;ng  coherence  can  be  used  to   predict  users’  ra;ng  inconsistencies     A  user’s  ra;ng  inconsistencies  tell  us   how  well  our  system  performs  for  that   user  –  i.e.  whether  we  need  to   op;mize  further   24  
  • 25. Thanks!     Ques;ons?                         More  recommender  systems:   www.recsyswiki.com     25  
  • 26. Image  credits   •  Slide  1  -­‐  hqp://www.burdens.net.au/product/esf-­‐barriers   •  Slide  2  -­‐  hqp://www.freepicturesweb.com/pictures/2010-­‐07/5881.html   •  Slide  4  -­‐  hqp://redgannet.blogspot.nl/2010/08/moreletakloof-­‐johannesburg-­‐jnb.html   •  Slide  5  -­‐  hqp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_devia;on#Interpreta;on_and_applica;on   •  Slide  9,  12,  23  -­‐  hqp://www.withautodesk.com/html/science-­‐fair-­‐ideas-­‐for-­‐physical-­‐science-­‐inven;ons.html   •  Slide  13  -­‐  hqp://fineartamerica.com/featured/16-­‐cogs-­‐les-­‐cunliffe.html   •  Slide  24  -­‐  hqps://benchprep.com/blog/the-­‐ap-­‐english-­‐exam-­‐wri;ng-­‐compelling-­‐conclusions/   26