An analysis of US - China interaction in the context of state and non-state actors. a joint presentation by Amir Jahangir and Vice Admiral Michael Lefever at the program for Senior Executives in National and International Security at the Harvard Kennedy School

1. The No. 1
US China Relations

2. The No. 1
Alraisi
Oman
Hurst
Australia
Amir
Pakistan
Moore
Liberia
Nkemdirim
NigeriaEspinoza
Chile
Cinelli
USA
Lefever
USA

3. US-China
Comparison

4. How does the announced rebalancing of US
forces affect the relationship
• Rebalancing:
– The US already has a presence in the pacific,
reestablishing and enhancing existing US relationships
– Economic Interests:
• Global Supply Chains
• Keeping trade routes and
sea-lanes open
• Securing markets
– Security Interests:
• Ensure security of the region
– Category 1: Taiwan, South Korea Japan
– Category 2: Indonesia, Philippines

5. Military Economic
• Pakistan
• North Korea
• Russia
• Mongolia
• Iran
• US
• EU
• Pakistan
• GCC
• Russia
• North Korea
• Iran
• Mongolia
• Australia
• Africa
• Japan
• South Korea
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Philippines
• Indonesia
• India
• Pakistan
• EU
• China
• GCC
• India
• Japan
• South Korea
• Australia
• New Zealand
• Philippines
• Indonesia
• Pakistan
Relationships among the US, the PRC and other countries

6. International Security: Countries Influencing China
Positive Influence Negative Influence
Economic Influence US
Russia
Pakistan
North Korea
Iran
US
India
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Military Power US
Russia
Pakistan
North Korea
US
South Korea
Japan
Indonesia
India
Philippines
Cultural Kinship Mongolia
Myanmar
Taiwan
Taiwan
Geographic Proximity Myanmar
Pakistan
North Korea
Russia
India
Bhutan
Nepal
North Korea

7. Regional Alliances
• A) Are there any security alliances in place
(bilateral or multilateral)
– YES
• What are they?
– US: Japan, Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Australia, Taiwan,
Pakistan, New Zealand
– China: Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, Myanmar
• Do any of them include the PRC?
– Six Party Talks (PRC)
– ASEAN (no PRC membership)
– Shanghai Cooperation Organization (PRC)
– Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty

8. Q4: Soft/Smart Power Tools to Influence PRC -
Levers of DIME
Soft Power Smart Power
Diplomatic • Credibility
• Regional and Leadership
Status
• Humanitarian Assistance
• US Regional Security Alliances
Information • Media
• Open Internet
• Academic Exchange
• US and Regional Response to
Cyber Theft
Military • Freedom of Flight
• Freedom of Navigation
• Military Training
• US Regional Security Alliances
• US-China Military Exercises
Economic • Trade Relations
• Cultural Influence
• Corporate Centers of
Excellence
• Infrastructure Development

9. Q5: Existential Threats
Regional Non-regional
Conflict Environment
Terrorism Climate Change
Cyber Threats Pollution
Territorial Claims Terrorism
Nuclear Threat Cyber Threats
Food Security Nuclear Threat
Water Energy
Energy Global Supply Chain
Raw Material

10. Q6: Engaging China through Corporate Partnerships on
Energy
Pros Cons
• China’s dependency on US
technology
• Empowers China to set into a
position of an energy sufficient
• Allowing China to see the benefits
of developing energy resources
within its geographical limits
• Shifts the energy balance from
crude oil to shale oil and gas
• Access to the Chinese market for
energy
• Global crude oil price instability,
may result in security instability
• Creates opportunities to engage
China on mutually beneficial terms
• Energy stability will allow China to
focus its resources elsewhere
• Energy stability will allow China to
focus its resources elsewhere
• It will provide China, energy
security stability
• It will provide China, energy
security stability
• Ultimately this will lead to China
acquiring the status of a super
power

11. Thank You