A stock had annual returns of 4.8 percent, -11.6 percent, 18.2 percent, and 7.4 percent over the past four years. Which one of the following best describes the probability that this stock will produce a return of 30percent or more in a single year? Solution The probability is less than 0.5 percent. There are very less chance that this stock will produce a return of 30 percent or more in a single year..