StrataNY_2011_ferrari

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Michael Ferrari

Talk at Strata Summit, NY Sept 2011

Tecnologia

Atmospheric Analytics
Michael Ferrari
CSC

Atmospheric Analytics
How has weather & climate data availability changed?

How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from,
the ubiquitous weather & climate data?

WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer

What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?

Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Mount Washington, NH

Dimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire

Weather Black Swans

Source: Weather Trends International

Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011

Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction

Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications

MERRA:
Publicly available,
28 Physical Parameters
1979-present

Source: NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center, MERRA

Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application

Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009

Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management

(C)

(B) (E)
(E)
(C)
(A)

(A)
(D)
(D)
(F)

(B)

Food Production

Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)

Food Production

Extreme Events
(Pakistan Floods)

Monsoon Activity

New Business Models will emerge

Combining Strata with Where

New Business Models will emerge

Mining Environmental Sensor Network data

Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003

New Business Models will emerge

Scientific Data Services:
Climate Data Service

Apply Climate &
Weather Informatics
to
Do Things That Matter

MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

WCI Summary
• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’.
However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction
of error, etc.)

• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate
indices developed (teleconnections)

• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue

• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist

• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables
robustness.

Thanks
• Edd Dumbill
• Mac Slocum

• John Schnase, PhD
• Phil Webster, PhD

• Dan Walker, PhD

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StrataNY_2011_ferrari

1. Atmospheric Analytics Michael Ferrari CSC

2. Atmospheric Analytics How has weather & climate data availability changed? How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from, the ubiquitous weather & climate data? WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?

3. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

4. Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

6. Mount Washington, NH Dimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire

7. Weather Black Swans Source: Weather Trends International

8. From J. Schnase, NASA

10.

11. Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011 Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction

12. Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications MERRA: Publicly available, 28 Physical Parameters 1979-present Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, MERRA

13. Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009

14. Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management (C) (B) (E) (E) (C) (A) (A) (D) (D) (F) (B)

15.

16. Food Production

17. Food Production Extreme Events (Pakistan Floods)

18. Food Production Extreme Events (Pakistan Floods) Monsoon Activity

19.

20. New Business Models will emerge Combining Strata with Where

21. New Business Models will emerge Mining Environmental Sensor Network data Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003

22. New Business Models will emerge Scientific Data Services: Climate Data Service

23. WDGD?

24.

25. Apply Climate & Weather Informatics to Do Things That Matter

26.

27.

28.

29. 35/40

30. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

31. MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

32. WCI Summary • Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’. However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction of error, etc.) • With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate indices developed (teleconnections) • Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue • NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist • Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables robustness.

33. WWDD?

34. Thanks • Edd Dumbill • Mac Slocum • John Schnase, PhD • Phil Webster, PhD • Dan Walker, PhD

StrataNY_2011_ferrari

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