Dr Jeremy Woods, Imperial College

1. LAND USE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SECURITY: THE ROLE OF
BIOENERGY IN THE UK
#UKADBiogas @adbioresources
CHAIR:
PHILIPP LUKAS, FUTURE BIOGAS
KEYNOTES:
GUY SMITH, NFU
DR JEREMY WOODS, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

2. Developing a new Bioenergy Strategy
(for the UK)
Jeremy Woods
ADBA Conference,
NEC, Birmingham
2nd July 2015

3. What is sustainable bioenergy and what to measure?
Climate Change
Global / Regional
Energy Security
Economic
Development
Local / Consumer
Usability /
reliability
Environment /
health
[inc air & water
quality]
Food Security
Cost

4. Is land constrained at the Global level?
Conflicts surrounding bioenergy are nearly always to do with land use /
availability:
- Revisions to the EU Renewable Energy Directive: the ‘food cap’
- Revisions to the US RFS
- UK vacillation on biofuels and bioelectricity policy
Food security & development are critical dimensions e.g. Wilson &
Conway (2012). ONE BILLION HUNGRY: CAN WE FEED THE WORLD?
‘Global population over the past fifty years has increased 110%
while global cropland has only increased by 10%, indicating a lack of
available new land’
• Are we really running out of land globally? For farmers it has been
less costly to increase yields rather than expand into ‘new’ land…

5. Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /Are we running out of land in the UK or just not using it efficiently /
effectivelyeffectivelyeffectivelyeffectively
• Contrary to latest
Cambridge report we are
not running out of land but
don’t have clear
perspective on how best
to use it
• What is the UK’s
comparative advantage?
• How to achieve
‘sustainable
intensification’?
CISL, 2014. The best use of agricultural land.
http://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/natcap

6. SCOPE-FAPESP-BE-BASIC
Reporting a global assessment of
Bioenergy & Sustainability
137 experts from 24 countries
Bioenergy now
Bioenergy expansion
Energy security
Food security
Environmental and climate
security
Sustainable development and
Innovation
The much needed science
Developed and developing regions
Numbers, cases, issues, solutions
779-page Ebook
Download at http://bioenfapesp.org

7. Recommendations
Invest in agriculture modernization and use of degraded land for
energy crops
Adapt technologies for use is poor communities
Develop good governance and supporting policies both at local,
national and global scales
Findings Conclusions
Global scale food and energy
production is sufficient to meet
future anticipated needs
Hunger and malnutrition are primarily
problems of distribution/access,
poverty, not land scarcity
There is enough land Future food and part of energy
demands can be satisfied
Bioenergy can bring social
development in rural areas
Depends on careful planning of land
use, governance and integrated
practices
Food Security: conclusions - Osseweijer et al. Chapter 4

8. Land and bioenergy (Woods et al, Chp 9. SCOPE 72)
2010
Pasture Agriculture Forests Other
2050
Pasture:
• 40% of world’s
pasture may have no
livestock on it
• 26% of world’s land
currently provides
<5% calories and <3%
dietary protein
• x9 scope for improved
livestock yields with
improved pastures
and genetics
Sheehan. Madrid Livestock and
Climate Change Workshop, 2014
A renewed focus on pasture intensification and agriculture livestock integration is
emerging with major implications for management of manure, nutrients, wastes
and water
Much of the world’s pasture land is extremely unproductive not because of fundamental
biophysical constraints but due to socio-economic and developmental reasons

9. Pasture
(3.4 billion ha)
Cropland
(1.5 billion ha)
Agricultural Land (Ha)
0
%Dietaryprotein
20
40
60
80
100
0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
Land Use for Food Production
%HarvestedCrops
20
40
60
80
100
Land needed to produce 138 EJ modern bioenergy (biofuel, heat, electricity)
1.5 billion ha
marginal & very marginal
A fraction could
conceivably grow
some energy crops
(e.g. agave)
Added land needed for very large bioenergy contribution, 2050: 19% prime & good land
not now planted in row crops after deducting for land expected to be needed for food.
140 EJ (20 to 25% primary
energy): 200 Mha
Additional for increased protected
land + forest plantations: 180 Mha
Additional for food,
2050: 70 Mha
1.4 billion ha
prime & good
Suitability for
some energy
crops (e.g. grass)
likely > food crops

10. The Global
CalculatorA positive vision of the future
This report uses evidence from the Global
Calculator to show that:
1. The world could eat well, travel more and
live in more comfortable homes and
prevent dangerous climate change
2. But to do so, we need to transform the
technologies and fuels we use
3. We also need to make smarter use of
our limited land resources and expand
forests by around 5-15% by 2050
What is the UK’s role? Should it include
agriculture in its climate change policy?

11. 0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Diet Land Use Renewable
Energy
GlobalEmissions(GtCO2e)
0%
-100%
+100%
+200%135 (+152%)
5.8°C
75 (+40%)
4.0°C
41 (-24%)
2.8°C
26 (-52%)
2.3°C
85 (+58%)
4.4°C
71 (+31%)
3.8°C
54 (0%)
3.2°C
33 (-38%)
2.5°C
63 (+18%)
3.5°C
50 (-7%)
3.1°C 38 (-30%)
2.7°C
38 (-30%)
2.6°C
PercentChange
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
TemperatureIncrease(°C)
= average temperature increase
= global emissions
IEA 4DS = 53.7 3.2°C
to year 2100
Scenario Levels:
1 — minimal abatement
2 — ambitious
3 — very ambitious
4 — extremely ambitious
Source: http://tool.globalcalculator.org (compiled by Mark Laser, Dartmouth College, USA
Global Calculator: Comparing Diet, Land and Renewable
Energy Options for Climate Mitigation

12. How could bioenergy systems be deployed
to close the N-cycle (AD is a key enabler)
Alongi Skenhall, S., Berndes, G., and Woods, J. (2013), Integration of bioenergy systems into UK
agriculture - new options for management of nitrogen flows. Biomass and Bioenergy 54:219-226. Doi:
j.biombioe.2013.04.002
See also: Malaj et al. 2014. Organic chemicals jeopardize the health of freshwater ecosystems on the
continental scale. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1321082111

13. Key issuesKey issuesKey issuesKey issues
• Opportunity for policy to drive sustainable bioenergy through a new /
emerging integrated land management prospectus covering:
– Food security: investment urgently needed in energy service provision into
agriculture – bioenergy as an enabler for food security (Lynd & Woods, A new hope for
Africa. Nature; 2011)
• ‘Sustainable Intensification’ = agricultural landscape integration providing opportunities for
innovative farming and new markets.
– Energy security: bioenergy will be a major consumer of biomass and user of
land globally potentially providing a significant share (c. 10 to 20%) of global
energy by 2050
– Climate security: without significant shares of modern bioenergy the 2ºC or
even 4ºC targets look almost impossible to meet – http://globalcalculator.org
• From this view, bioenergy is not a competitor to food security but an
enabler for more resilient & productive landscapes
• UK bioenergy policy is simply not addressing these issues and is virtually
non-existent beyond 2020
• UK is missing a major opportunity to enhance UK agricultural
competitiveness, resilience and climate mitigation potential by viewing
land competition as the dominant outcome from expanding bioenergy
policy (as per CISL, 2014 report)

14. Thank YouThank YouThank YouThank You
Jeremy.woods@imperial.ac.uk
http://www3.imperial.ac.uk/icept
http://bioenfapesp.org/scopebioenergy/index.phphttp://bioenfapesp.org/scopebioenergy/index.php
http://www.ft.com/ig/sites/2015/climate-calculator/

15. Ecosystem Complexity
Multi-scalar
Patch
Landscape Region
Multi-Region
Global
Erica Smithwick, smithwick@psu.edu
Armen Kemanian,
Ethan Davis,
The Pennsylvania State University

16. LAND USE, CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SECURITY: THE ROLE OF
BIOENERGY IN THE UK
#UKADBiogas @adbioresources
CHAIR:
PHILIPP LUKAS, FUTURE BIOGAS
KEYNOTES:
GUY SMITH, NFU
DR JEREMY WOODS, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON