1. Stop Raining on my Parade
THE SALES IMPLICATIONS OF WEATHER
David McDermott, Performance Director, 7thingsmedia
Reena Rai, Client Services Director, 7thingsmedia
16th October 2012
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2. Contents
• Session objectives
• Why the session
– Impact of weather
• The study
– Overview
– Results
• Initial insights
• Product weather patterns
• Events
• North / South
• How can we use this data?
• What can we do?
• Summary
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3. Social media
SEO
PPC
Mobile
Lead generation
International
Display
Affiliates
LONDON | NEW YORK

4. Recent award success
Performance Marketing Awards, May 2012
• Best Agency: 7thingsmedia
The Drum Awards, May 2012
• Marketer of the Year: Chris Bishop
The DADI Awards, Nov 2012
• Shortlisted for:
- Digital Team of the Year
- Best use of PPC
- Best use of Affiliate
Marketing Industry Network, Nov 2012 “...the judges showered 7thingsmedia
with praise because of their impressive
• Shortlisted for: multichannel strategic approach and
- Best Digital Agency the strength of the agency’s
- Best Retail Strategy development within the industry.”

5. Stop Raining on my Parade
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6. Objectives
1 Research 3 years worth of sales data across a number of clients within the retail
sector
2 Combine sales data with corresponding weather data across the UK’s major
cities
3 Find any correlations between weather patterns and sales data
Look at how accurate forecasting is within weather patterns
4
Discuss whether there is any validity at adapting online merchandising to
5 weather patterns
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7. Weather is just the weather, right?

8. This year...
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9. We talk of a offline correlation
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10. But what about online?

11. The study
• 3 years worth of sales data across retail clients totalling millions
• 15 major city weather maps correlated with events (Rain, Snow, Sun, Wind etc)
• Multiple data sets correlated and trended out
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12. Study caveats
• Researched and removed
anomalies
• Built algorithm to score data
set and to ensure that data
skews were minimised
• Data set was fashion and
predominantly ladies
clothing

13. The questions we then posed
1 How does the weather impact (positive/negative) to online sales?
2 What weather system impacts peak sales?
3 Do certain products sell better/worse at certain temperatures or events?
4 Is there a North /South divide?
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14. The results

15. Initial insights
28th of November 2010?
Sales
Revenue
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17. Initial insights
• Average mean temperature had
risen by 3 °C s in the 3 years
• Mean temperature across the cities
was 13 °C
• 15 °C seemed to be the lowest
frequency
• Average highest temperature was 17
°C
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18. Initial insights
Rain
Sales
Revenue
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19. Initial insights
• The higher the temperature rises the less we tend to buy
• Our optimal ‘buying range’ was between 16 °C to 19 °C
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20. However...
• The higher the temperature the more we are likely to spend!
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21. Optimal product weather patterns?

22. Optimal for casual skirts
19 °C
• But can we also workout at which weather pattern works best at which
temperature?
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23. Optimal for jeans
11 °C and raining
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24. Optimal for swimwear
21 °C and raining
25 °C
• 2 different optimal temperatures and weather patterns
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25. Do events get effected?

26. Bank holidays
Easter holidays and May day:
• Sales in 2011 decreased by over 50% when the Easter Bank Holiday
temperature rose by over 140%
• The temperature then decreased 60% in 2012 which saw and increase of
over 150%!
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27. The Royal Wedding affect..
Week after Royal Wedding:
• 2010 corresponding dates were over 120% higher with a 20% lower temperature
• 2012 corresponding dates were over 200% higher with a 15% lower temperature
• Where was the Royal bounce?
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28. Is there a North/South divide?

29. City revenue by temperature
• Lowest comparable temperature (-4 °C ) the people in Manchester and Glasgow spent
more than London
• However, when the temperature rose by 1 °C Londoners spent more than Glasgow
and Manchester put together
• Optimal temperature for Manchester seems to be 13 °C whilst the optimal
temperature for London is 17 °C
…at - 6 °C Manchester spent more on going out dresses than they did on coats and scarfs!
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30. How can we use this information?

31. Predicting the weather
• Accuracy for 1 to 2 days is high from 75% to 90% (MET Office)
• Once you start forecasting over 3 days the accuracy can be anywhere close to 50%
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32. But we work in Ecommerce
• The offline world will merchandise a
shop front based on the weather
• If we know:
– What product sells at what
temperature
– In which location
– In a given set of events
– That it is 80% likely to happen
• Why do we not merchandise a
website based on the weather when
technology is there to change
instantly?
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33. Your typical trading plan
Seasonality
Promotional Strategy
Spend in Market
Competitor Strategy
Activity React & Reflection &
Targets /
Granular measured tweak plans Learning fed
KPIs to each
Plans against where into next
channel
targets required quarter plans
Ecommerce Trading Plan
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34. What can we do?
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35. Weather algorithm
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36. What can we do?
• Social communication:
– Twitter updates
– Facebook offers
• Email
– Network
– Personal
• Open trading plans based on seasonal products
• Product related incentives
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37. So what?
Know when people will buy before they do and strategically time your advertising and
promotions to increase year-over-year sales
• 1° COLDER = +2% increase in SOUP sales
• 1° HOTTER = +1.2% increase in BEER or SOFT DRINKS sales
• 1° COLDER = +4% increase in CHILDREN’S APPAREL sales
• 1° HOTTER = +10% increase in SUN CARE products sales
• 1° COLDER = + 25% increase in MOUSE TRAP sales
• 1° HOTTER = +24% increase in AIR CONDITIONER sales
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Source: Weather Trends International
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38. Summary
1 The weather affects online sales as well as offline
2 Products have an optimal temperature and weather pattern for sales revenue
3 Temperature fluctuations can dramatically affect bank holidays
5 day forecasting is effectively 50% accurate but provides information on the
4 likely temperature and weather pattern
5 Online is perfectly placed to react and change short term digital strategies and
longer term product focuses
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39. Thank you to: Whitepaper expected:
- Our clients
- Met Office NOV 2011
- Coremetrics, Google to receive your copy email:
- Weather Trends Int. weather@7thingsmedia.com
- Kenneth Yau, 7thingsmedia
fin.
connect:
David McDermott
Performance Director
david.mcdermott@7thingsmedia.com
www.7thingsmedia.com
@7thingsmedia
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