Mais conteúdo relacionado Semelhante a Project management & critical chain (20) Project management & critical chain1. On Project Management &
The Critical Chain
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
This presentation was created and given by Ziya
Boyacigiller who was leading Angel Investor and a loved
mentor to many young entrepreneurs in Turkey. We have
shared it on the web for everyone’s benefit. It is free to
use but please cite Ziya Boyacigiller as the source when
you use any part of this presentation. For more about
Ziya Boyacigiller’s contributions to the start-up Ecosystem
of Turkey, please go to www.ziyaboyacigiller.com
2. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
On Project Management &
The Critical Chain
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
3. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
What can us from
Succeeding
in Product Development?
1. Definition: Not working with key
customer(s) on the α-version (prototype)
2. Planning: Not signing up to an Objective
Specification (concurrent engineering).
3. Management: Not using Project
Management with intensity end-to-end.
4. Quality: Not adopting and applying Dr.
Deming’s (or Dr. Juran’s, etc.) principles.
4. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
CCRITICAL-RITICAL-CCHAINHAIN
SCHEDULING & MANAGEMENT
TECHNIQUES
Eliyahu Goldratt, North River Press
5. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Q: Where do profits come from?
CUSTOMER PAYS COMPANY
COMPANY SHIPS PRODUCT TO CUSTOMER
COMPANY BUILDS PRODUCT
COMPANY SAMPLES, DESIGNS-IN, BOOKS PRODUCT
COMPANY INTRODUCES PRODUCT
COMPANY DEVELOPS PRODUCTS
COMPANY USES PROFITS TO START NEW PROJECTS
6. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
If we can’t make a product
shipment, we lose the profit for
that shipment.
Whereas if we can’t introduce a product
on time we lose much bigger:
“A six month delay in product introduction
(TTM) reduces lifetime profits by 50%.”
“McKinsey & Co.”
sales
t im e
7. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Incomplete, Misfocused
Design
results in cost, time overruns
– loss of profits and position
8. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Affect of TTM on
Return on Development Time
ASP - 2-3x use monopoly pricing / maintain
higher pricing longer
margin - 1-2x get a head-start in experience-
curve, use higher-volume
volume - 2-3x get to see more quotes / get to
win more designs
lifetime - 1-2x get a head start / get into better
quality projects
DEMM - 1-3x use same or more resources
RODT - 4-12x get a better payback
9. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
fast cycle-time => TTM => higher
profits
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201
3
5
7
9
years
revenue
fast (1 yr cycle) slow (2 yr cycle)
10. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
TTM Focus is vital to
Competitiveness
11. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
ALL SCHEDULES START NEAT
AT THE BEGINNING...
E X P E C T E D F I N IS H D A T E
" M I L E S T O N E "
A
B
C
D
12. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Pareto of Typical Delays
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20FrequencyofOccurance
(wks)
CONFLICT
ESTIMATION
RESOURCE/PO
TECHNICAL
TECHNICAL
COORDINATION
DEFINITION
TECHNICAL
TECHNICAL
REQUIREMENT
VENDOR
ACTSOFGOD
VACATION
DONWTIME
PERSONNEL
MANAGEMENT
HUMANERRS
TECHNICAL
DOCUMENTATION
QA/SHIP
13. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
UNCERTAINITY IS WHY WE NEED
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
T I M E T O C O M P L E T I O N
PROBABILITYOFON-TIMECOMPLETION
MEDIAN
1 X > 1 X
14. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Murphy’s Law:
“Whatever can go wrong,
willwill.”
15. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
ParkinsonParkinson’’s Laws Law
“Work expands to fill (and evenand even
exceedexceed ) the time available.”
16. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Pareto of Historic Delays
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45%of1800WW
MURPHY
PARKINSONS
MULTI-TASKING
SUBORDINATION
OTHER
17. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Q : What does “Manage Well”
reallyreally mean?
Faster project development times
Meet schedule dates
Meet milestone date
Maximize engineering productivity
Minimize costs
Minimize rework
Do not keep resources idle
. . .
18. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
SACRIFICE LOCAL OBJECTIVES,
FOCUS ON THE GLOBAL
OBJECTIVE
C
1 5
D
9 0
B
3 0 E
3 0
L A T E S T A R T
( S A V E C O S T / R E W O R K )
C
1 5
D
9 0
A
9 0
B
3 0 E
3 0
E A R L Y S T A R T
( P R O T E C T C R I T I C A L - P A T H )
19. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
SUBORDINATE ALL OTHER
OBJECTIVES TO PROTECT
THE CRITICAL-CHAIN
M A N A G E W E L L
C O N T R O L
C O S T S
P R O T E C T
T H R O U G H P U T
E A R L Y S T A R T
L A T E S T A R T
G O O D L O C A L P E R F O R M A N C E
G O O D G L O B A L P E R F O R M A N C E
20. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
S C H E D U L E S A R E
M I S S E D
M E E T S C H E D U L E S
P R O D U C T I V I T Y
T O O L O W
I M P R O V E
P R O D U C T I V I T Y
S C H E D U L E L E S S S L A C K
T I M E F O R U N C E R T A I N I T I E S
S C H E D U L E M O R E S L A C K
T I M E F O R U N C E R T A I N I T I E S
.... need to decide what is
more important to make us
win...
21. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
“SAFETY” BUILT INTO ESTIMATES,
EXTENDS TASK SCHEDULES BY 2X
T I M E T O C O M P L E T I O N
" A G G R E S I V E E S T I M A T E "
W I T H M I N I M U M S A F E T Y
5 0 % C O N F I D E N C E
" S A F E E S T I M A T E "
8 0 - 9 0 % C O N F I D E N C E
S A F E T Y
PROBABILITYOFON-TIMECOMPLETION
MEDIAN
1 X > 1 X
22. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
BELIEF: The only way to meet the
schedule is through protecting
each step... Pad every step with
safety.
T IM E
SAFETYA
SAFETYB
SAFETYC
SAFETYD
23. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
SAFETY IS INSERTED INTO
PROJECTS IN 3 WAYS
TIME ESTIMATES BASED ON PESSIMISTIC
EXPERIENCES
EVERY LEVEL MANAGER ADDS ONE
ADDITIONAL SAFETY
ESTIMATOR SANDBAGS AGAINST “CUTS”
Q : If estimates have so
much safety why do projects
finish late?
24. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Only 50% of projects meet Original
Schedule Date (OSD)
Over 90% of products introduce the
last week of the quarter
Q : If estimates have so
much safety why do
projects finish late?
25. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
PARKINSON’S LAW KICKS
IN...
EXPECTED
FINISH
DELAYED
START
"URGENT"
STUFF
Student Syndrome
Multi-Tasking
Accumulating Delays
Interruptions
Distractions
26. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
PARKINSON + MURPHY =
DELAY
E X P E C T E D F I N IS H
M I L E S T O N E D A T E
A
B
C
D
27. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Q : How come we allow multi-
tasking?
A
1 0
B
1 0
C
1 0
N O M U L T I - T A S K I N G
A
5
B
5
C
5
A
5
B
5
C
5
2 0 + d
M U L T I - T A S K I N G
2 0 + d
2 0 + d
PLUS if A is delayed by “d”, domino-effect
kicks in and delays all projects by “d”.
28. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
AVOID MULTI-TASKING
Use free-time (waiting time) to help
other projects
Select resources with low loading-
factor
Use resource buffers to eliminate
domino-effect
Coordinate resources through
advanced reminders
29. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
DELAYS ACCUMULATE,
GAINS DON’T...
E X P E C T E D F I N IS H
M I L E S T O N E D A T E
A C T U A L F IN IS H
D A T E
A
B
C
D
30. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
PROTECT THE CRITICAL-PATH
WITH A PROJECT BUFFER...
T IM E
SLACKA
SLACKB
SLACKC
SLACKD
P R O J E C T B U F F E R
31. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
ATTACK THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY TASKS
FIRST...
T IM E
SLACKA
SLACKB
SLACKC
SLACKD
P R O J E C T B U F F E R
C
A
B
D
32. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Buffer Simplifies Priorities,
Provides Focus and Early
Warnings
For Managers
O K
W A T C H /
P L A N
A C T
S A F E T Y B U F F E R
33. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
FEEDING-BUFFERS PROTECT
THE CRITICAL-CHAIN, AND
PREVENT CRITICAL-PATH FROM
CHANGING DURING PROJECT
F E E D IN G - B R A N C H E S
&
F E E D IN G - B U F F E R S
34. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
MANAGING THE SCHEDULE :MANAGING THE SCHEDULE :
Eliminate Milestones
Force On-time/early Starts
Manage To Meet The Aggresive
Durations
Manage Murphy’s Delays
RESULT:RESULT:
Gain The Times When Tasks Are
Finished Early & Minimize
Parkinson’s Delays
35. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Critical-Chain Technique
Saves Resources and Cuts
TTM
Half the tasks will be finished on time or
early (gains accumulate).
This will offset the other half done late.
Statistically, a project will need less than
1/2 of the safety (project buffer)
Therefore, on the average
projects will pull in by over 25%
36. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Less-is-More!
Make TTMMake TTM firstfirst priority.priority.
MISSINGTTM,
PRODUCTIVITY
ISLOW
MEETTTM,
PRODUCTIVITY
ISHIGHER
PRODUCTIVITY
TOOLOW
MISSTTM,
PRODUCTIVITY
ISSTILLLOW
START MOREPROJECTS
(ONEENGINEERPERPROJECT)
START LESSPROJECTS
(MULTIPLEENGINEERSPER
PROJECT)
versus
37. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
We need a paradigm shift for TTM...We need a paradigm shift for TTM...
TTM means focused product plansfocused product plans (less-is-
more)
TTM means simplicitysimplicity (straight-line to target)
TTM means focus on futurefocus on future (duck-hunting)
TTM means commitment to wincommitment to win (doing vs
winning)
TTM means taking riskstaking risks (risk failure now -
win later)
38. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
PRE-MFH
MFH
PD
IOS
DES
LAY
FAB
TEST
INTRO
MANAGEMENT INFLUENCE MANAGEMENT ATTENTION
Management Influence is
Lowest Towards the End of a
Project
Front-End Roles Back-End Roles
39. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
MANAGEMENT ROLESMANAGEMENT ROLES
FRONT-END
Define business strategies
Define product direction
Define process direction
Manage aggregate project &
resource portfolios (build -
match)
Own and operate product
development process
Launch projects & teams
Obtain firm commitmentsObtain firm commitments
BACK-END
Review commitmentsReview commitments
Review projects & plans
Provide resources
Assure support from functional
organizations
Manage changes & conflicts
Fix systematic problems
Teach, train, indoctrinate
Improve product development
process
40. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Make Commitment to WinCommitment to Win Highest
Priority
CEOCEO buys into project - commits to
support resource requirements fully & on-
time
Senior ManagersSenior Managers buy into project - commit
to provide service and support fully & on-provide service and support fully & on-
timetime
Project TeamProject Team signs-up to win - commit to
meet TTM and other goals - with no
excuses
41. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Manage Project ConflictManage Project Conflict
Commit to meet TTM for all projects when planning OSPCommit to meet TTM for all projects when planning OSP
Eliminate uncertainty - achieve first pass success
Anticipate potential problems, and schedule into successor
project a “reasonable” time to resolve them
Have additional resources available to add to predecessor
project if problem is beyond reasonable / free up engineer
altogether (takes consulting role) if possible
Double-up engineers on successor project to have at least
one available all the time (trade the other engineer if
problem is beyond reasonable)
Add resources to successor project to make up the lost
time
42. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
Manage Estimation ErrorsManage Estimation Errors
Break project into tasks and determine “without-
problems” & “with-problems” time estimates
Allow “sufficient” slack time in addition to the cumulative
without-problems time
CommitCommit to meet this schedule
Publish project bonus amounts when schedule is signed
Review schedule performance weekly, and actively
coach / manage
Eliminate rework by using systems approach to design,
and doing cell/block level objective (before design) and
design (after design) reviews
Dictate cell / block reuse
Compile task time actuals to use in future estimates
43. Copyright © Ziya G. Boyacigiller 2003,2004
TTM needs back-end support for good results
LIFETIME
PROFIT
FROM
PRODUCT
CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS
(POTENTIAL = 100%)
PRODUCT
DEFINITION
IOS
DESIGN
TEST
TTM
REACH
QUOTE
LEADTIME/PRICE
DELIVERY
RESULT
10% ???