This document summarizes a presentation by Ziya Boyacigiller on testing business ideas and models when entering an existing industry. The presentation discusses how figuring out what customers want is a process of trial and error, not just a guess. It emphasizes that running out of cash is typically a symptom that the initial business model did not work. The presentation provides guidance on identifying assumptions as hypotheses to test through experiments tracked on a dashboard. This allows a business to learn if their initial "Plan A" will succeed or if a new "Plan B" is needed before wasting too many resources.

1. On Bets and Tests: Entering an
Existing Industry
Ziya G. Boyacigiller
This presentation was created and given by Ziya
Boyacigiller who was leading Angel Investor and a loved
mentor to many young entrepreneurs in Turkey. We have
shared it on the web for everyone’s benefit. It is free to
use but please cite Ziya Boyacigiller as the source when
you use any part of this presentation. For more about
Ziya Boyacigiller’s contributions to the start-up Ecosystem
of Turkey, please go to www.ziyaboyacigiller.com

2. BETS AND TEST
– MOVING FROM PLAN A TO N...
Entering an Existing Industry
Ref: Getting to Plan B, J. Mullins / R. Komisar

3. EVOLUTION OF KNOWLEDGE
http://files.posterous.com/jaysteele Roger L. Martin

4. SUCCESS WITH “PLAN A” IS LIKE CREATING A
WORK OF ART AT FIRST TRY…

5. EVOLUTION OF CLAY –
INCLUDES TRIAL & ERROR,
TESTING & LEARNING…

6. Figuring out what customers will buy is a process – not a guess.
FIGURING OUT WHAT CUSTOMERS WANT AND
WILL BUY SOUNDS EASY – BUT IS NOT !

7. Running out of cash isn’t a cause – it’s a symptom. It’s a symptom or
signal that the company’s business model didn’t work.
“WE RAN OUT OF CASH.”

8. GOAL : CREATING A BUSINESS MODEL THAT WORKS
Business Model is the pattern of economic
activity – cash flowing into and out of your
business for various purposes and the timing
thereof – that dictates whether or not you run
out of cash and whether or not you deliver
attractive returns to your investors.

9. THE QUESTIONS YOU CANNOT ANSWER BY LOOKING AT THE
ANALOGS AND ANTILOGS LEAD YOU TO YOUR LEAPS
OF FAITH – BETS…
To address your leaps of faith,
you’ll have to leap… that is,
experiment.

10. IDENTIFYING YOUR BETS AND TESTING
THEM WILL PROVE OR REFUTE THEM, SO
YOU LEARN IF YOUR PLAN A WILL WORK
BEFORE YOU WASTE TOO MUCH OF YOUR
TIME AND YOUR MONEY.

11. GUIDE & TRACK YOUR JOURNEY:
DASHBOARD
A dashboard is a tool that drives an evidence-
based process to plan, guide, and track the
results of what you learn from your
hypothesis testing.

12. DASHBOARD FOR PLAN A :
Leap of Faith
Question
Hypothesis Metrics/Te
st
Findings/Resul
ts
Insight/Respons
e
1. Commuters
will stop and
buy a
refreshing
drink made
with fresh
lemons.
1. At least 10
customers
per day
will buy
2. At least 20
people will
stop and
ask for
price.
Customers/
day
Set up on a
chair with
lemons/sug
ar
borrowed
from
Mom…
1. Mon/2,
Tue/0
(rained),
Wed/8
2. Mon/8,
Tue/0,
Wed/24
High pricing
deters sales,
people look but
don’t buy; no point
setting up if it
rains; seems like
demand is less
than Johnny
thought.
2. People will
pay a premium
price over
Coke selling at
$1/glass.
$1.50 per
drink will be
acceptable
Total
customers/
people
asking for
price
Mon/25%,
Tue/-,
Wed/33%
$1.50 looks too
high.
We need a Plan
B.

13. YOUR GOAL IS TO FIND A PATH THAT WORKS !
You are here.