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High	Reliability	Organiza1ons	
Managing	Risk	in	Complex		
Opera4ng	Environments	
Presenta4on	at	the	AFPM	Annual	Mee4ng	
March	17,	2016
Complexity is stretching the capabilities
of most organizations
TECHNOLOGY	
PRODUCTS	&	SERVICES	
PROCESSES	
ORGANIZATIONS	
REGULATIONS	
MARKETS	
X
XX
X
XCOMMUNICATIONS
Complexity grows exponentially
3	
#Items #links
1 0
2 1
3 3
4 6
5 10
…
10 45
$	
Complexity
4	
Characteristics of complex systems
1. Non-linear reactions
3. Unknown interactions
2. Feedback loops
4. Emerging properties
Many companies are passing a
complexity threshold
5	
VALUE	
(diminishing	returns)	
COST	&	RISK	
(exponen4al	growth)	
$	
Complexity	
Few	companies	are	s.ll	
here	
Many	companies	are	
here	
An	increasing	number	of	
companies	are	here
Increased
complexity
Poor
execution
Loss of
process
control
Poor
performance
Added
processes
Vicious
Complexity
Cycle
The typical response to complexity is to
add even more complexity
Catastrophic incidents are becoming more
frequent and more severe
1979	–	Three-Mile	Island	core	meltdown	
1988	–	Piper	Alpha	explosion	
2005	–	Texas	City	Refinery	explosion	
2010	–	San	Bruno	Pipeline	explosion	
2010	–	BP	Deepwater	Horizon	oil	spill	
2011	–	Fukushima	Daiichi	disaster	
2013	–	West	Fer1lizer	plant	explosion
8	www.wilsonperumal.com	
Traditional risk management doesn’t
address these “normal accidents” well
Too complex
to anticipate
Too fast
to address
Too infrequent to
understand
9	www.wilsonperumal.com	
The Pessimist’s View
“Regardless	of	the	effec4veness	of	
management	and	opera4ons,	
accidents	in	systems	that	are	
characterized	by	4ght	coupling	and	
interac4ve	complexity	will	be	
normal	or	inevitable	as	they	oTen	
cannot	be	foreseen	or	prevented.”
Wilson	Perumal	&	Company,	Inc. 10	
Yet a few High Reliability Organizations
seem to defy the Pessimistic View!
The Nuclear Navy has never had a reactor
accident over its
50+	year	history	
150	mobile	nuclear	
reactors	
6,000+	years	of	reactor	
plant	opera4on	
11	www.wilsonperumal.com
12	
Three Lessons from the Nuclear Navy
#1 Safety should not be a GOAL!
#2 Simplify your management system
#3 Culture is critical
1	
2	
3
13	
Lesson #1
Achieving zero
incidents should not
be a
It should be an
14	
This has important implications for what
we reward
15	
Lesson #2: Simplify your management
system
16	www.wilsonperumal.com	
The Nuclear Navy simplifies with one
management system for all outcomes
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Key	
Controls	
Safety	
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Key	
Controls	
Environ-	
mental	
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Key	
Controls	
Quality	
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Key	
Controls	
Reliability	
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Key	
Controls	
Cost	
Common	Management	
System	Approach	
Nuclear	Navy		
Management	System	
	
People	
Process	
Equipment	
Change	
Increased	performance	
Accelerated	learning	
Reduced	cost	and	overhead	
Safety	
Quality	
Environmental	
Reliability	
Compliance	
Cost	
Key	
Controls
Wilson	Perumal	&	Company,	Inc. 17	
Having	overly	complex	management	systems	can	be	
very	expensive	
“If	[the	QEMS]	has	had	an	impact,	it’s	probably	a	nega1ve	impact.”	–	Engineering	Mgr.		
The	cost	of	mee1ng	QEMS	requirements…	 does	not	translate	to	high	performance	
task	execu4on	is	highly	
variable	among	divisions	(~50%	variability	in	
rework/revisions)	
high	level	of	rework	(17%)	
and	revision	(4%)	while	external	findings/
audit	are	increasing	
majority	of	reports	
(44-72%)	past	6	day	target	when	compe4tors	
deliver	in	1-3	days	
repe44ve	audit	findings	
indicate	lack	of	process	improvement	
adequate	to	maintain	
compliance	with	ISO	&	OHSAS	ü
û
û
û
û Improvement	
Efficiency	
Accuracy	
Consistency	
Compliance	Cost	Es1mates	for	QEMS	 Range		
Fulfilling	
QEMS	
Requirements	
Operators	 $26	–	67M	
Engineers	 $17	–	31M	
Con1nuous	
Improvement	
CAR	Processing1	 $200K	–	2M	
Internal	Audit	
Program1	
$100K	–	700K	
QEMS	
Maintenance1	
$200K	–	800K	
Governance	 QEMS	Group2	 $3M	
TOTAL	 ~$50M	–	100M
Lesson #3: Culture is critical
18
19	www.wilsonperumal.com	
Culture is the Nuclear Navy’s last layer
of defense
RobustEquipment
RigorousProcedures
Culture
20	
The culture required was a vast departure
from traditional military culture
Tradi1onal	Military	
Culture	
Follow	orders	
Do	what	you	are	told	
Don’t	ask	ques4ons	
Never	ques4on	your	
superiors	
Rickover’s	Cultural	
Pillars	
Have	a	higher	level	of	
understanding	
Follow	procedures	
Ques4on	procedures	when	
things	don’t	seem	right	
Back	each	other	up	
Do	it	all	with	integrity
Level	of	Knowledge	
Formality	
Ques1oning	Aktude	
Forceful	Watch	Team	Backup	
Integrity	
LEVEL	OF	KNOWLEDGE	
FORMALITY	
QUESTIONING	ATTITUDE	
FORCEFUL	BACKUP	
INTEGRITY	
CONTINUITY	OF	POWER	
REACTOR	SAFETY	
Safety and reliability depend on specific
operator behaviors
21	www.wilsonperumal.com	
The	“Pillars	of	the	Program”
WP&C has worked with the Nuclear Navy to
benchmark its culture
1.00	 2.00	 3.00	 4.00	 5.00	 6.00	 7.00	
Seek	the	company's	success	
Be	results	oriented	
Walk	the	talk	
Follow	procedures	
Con4nually	seek	greater	knowledge	
Always	collaborate	
Confiden4al	
Pay	alen4on	to	hierarchy	and	status	
Do	what	your	are	told	
Compete	with	peers	
Work	long	hours	
Cover	the	mistakes	of	others	
Punish	failure/mistakes	
Shortcuts	are	tolerated	
Change	
Current	vs.	Target	=	32%	
40	Characteris1cs	
Target	Culture	
Current	Culture	
Average	ranking	for	Current	vs.	Target	Cultures	
Most	Like	Us	Not	Like	Us
1.0	
2.0	
3.0	
4.0	
5.0	
6.0	
7.0	
Ques4oning	Aotude	 Formality	 Integrity	 Forceful	Watch	Team	
Backup	
Level	of	Knowledge	
Current	
The Navy describes itself consistently
with the Five Pillars
Most	Like	Us	Not	Like	Us	
		
Range	Client	
Range	Navy	 Navy	Average	
Client	Average
24	
Three Lessons from the Nuclear Navy
#1 Safety should not be a GOAL!
#2 Simplify your management system
#3 Culture is critical
1	
2	
3
25	
cseifert@wilsonperumal.com
Thank	You	
26	
Chris	Seifert	
Partner,	Opera1onal	Excellence	Prac1ce	
	
cseifert@wilsonperumal.com	
(972)	800-3618	
	
www.wilsonperumal.com	
Sign	up	for	our	blog	at	wilsonperumal.com/blog

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