H2 2016 Commodity outlook Nickel

BME company presentation, 2016
Commodity outlook: NickelMarket conditions, expectations, and 5 opportunities

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Overview
• Introduction (2)
• Nickel market (5)
• Sulfide vs. laterite (4)
• Production and reserves (3)
• Current state of affairs summary (1)
• Future expectations (8)
• Five opportunities (1)
Expected future developments
Historic performance

Introduction (1/2)
Etymology: The name nickel is derived from “Kupfernickel” – literally meaning “copper demon”,
because the mineral from which nickel was first derived (niccolite) looked like copper but yielded
none…
Discovery: Although used since ancient times, nickel was only isolated as an element (atomic #28)
in 1751 by a Swedish mineralogist Axel Fredrik Cronstedt.
Favorable attributes:
• Corrosion resistance
• Toughness
• Strength at high and low temperatures
• Favorable magnetic and electronic properties
LME symbol for Nickel (Ni)

Introduction (2/2)
Nickel is described as a “silvery-white lustrous metal with a slight golden tinge”
Applications:
• Stainless steels: 65%
• Steel and non-ferrous alloys: 20%
• Plating: 9%
• Other uses: 6% (Coins, electronics,
batteries portable equipment & hybrid cars)
Copyright Blast Mining Enterprises
Source: www.nickelinstutute.org
Major applications in:
• Construction
• Armament
5

Nickel market (1/5)
Ni is a top 10 metal (#6) by revenue (26B USD in 2013, 3% major metal market)
*Rest includes: Ag, Pb, PGM, Mo, Li, Co, U, Sn

Nickel market (2/5)
Norilsk Nickel
276 kt
Vale
231 kt
146 kt
115 kt
143 kt
51 kt
51 kt
75 kt
39 kt
In 2013, top 10 producers have a combined:
…66% market share
Source data: www.statista.com
Producing companies are relatively well spread around
the World – allowing for a competitive market

Nickel market (3/5)
Producing nations are relatively well
spread around the World – also
allowing for a competitive market
• Top five nickel producing countries responsible
for 56% of global output
• The Philippines (#1 producer) may drop out of
the top five producing nations when its reserves
are depleted
• Based on current reserves there is significant
growth potential in:
• Australia
• Russia
• New Caledonia
• Brazil
Source data: www.USGS.gov
8
Nickel production and reserves 2015E
Country Production Reserves Reserve
- tons tons years
Philippines 530,000 3,100,000 5.8
Russia 240,000 7,900,000 32.9
Canada 240,000 2,900,000 12.1
Australia 234,000 19,000,000 81.2
New Caledonia 190,000 8,400,000 44.2
Indonesia 170,000 4,500,000 26.5
Brazil 110,000 10,000,000 90.9
China 102,000 3,000,000 29.4
Cuba 57,000 5,500,000 96.5
South Africa 53,000 3,700,000 69.8
Other countries 608,500 11,160,000 18.3
World total 2,534,500 79,160,000 31.2

Current nickel pricing is at inflation adjusted lows for the last 100 years
Nickel market (4/5)
Sources: www.USGS.gov, www.infomine.com

Nickel market (5/5)
Source: WoodMackenzie, Mod. After Presentation Vale Investor Tour 2015
1st quartile 2nd quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile
2015 Global Nickel industry C1 cost curve
24,000
20,000
16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0
-2,000
-12,000
Niproductioncost[USD/tonNi]
50% of the market is underwater at current prices…
Todays Ni price
10,360 USD/t
(28/07/2016)
Note: Chart figures include all downstream processing costs to finished product

Nickel sulfide and nickel laterite (1/4)
Nickel is produced from sulfide & laterite deposits.
- Nickel laterite deposits:
- Oxidized (weathered, near surface) deposits amenable to open pit mining
- Nickel minerals can be associated with Fe, Al, and Co (of which Co payable)
- Account for 42% of current production & 60% of reserves
- Nickel sulfide deposits:
- Conventional type of nickel mining operation
- Type 1 nickel sulfide: Ni – Cu deposit with Co, PGM, and Au byproducts
- Type 2 nickel sulfide: PGM deposit with Ni and other byproducts
- Account for 58% of current production & 40% of reserves

Source: AME Group
Average nickel grade of all nickel producing mines
Although the grade of Non-PGM
nickel sulfide mines is declining…
…The development of the
average overall Ni grade
extracted is relatively flat
ForecastHistorical data

Qualitative comparison between nickel laterite and nickel sulfide deposits
Nickel laterite Nickel sulfide
HSE: Higher risk personnel during processing,
higher energy consumption (2-5x) and
emissions
HSE: Current processing techniques have lower
impact on the environment, underground
mining inherently more dangerous to personnel
Financial: More amenable to economies of
scale, higher CAPEX and OPEX and fewer
byproduct metal credits resulting in a high
position on the cost curve, lower revenue
Financial: Low cost curve position, mix of
products provides sought after protection in
highly cyclical (nickel) economy, underground
mining usually requires longer lead times
TFOR: Potential for game changing
technological improvements, many known
undeveloped deposits, feasibility issues, lower
quality product, batch process, complex, lower
system reliability, less stable producing nations
TFOR: Conventional source nickel mined,
grades existing deposits decreasing, few known
undeveloped deposits, more difficult
exploration, higher uncertainty w.r.t. orebody
grades and variability, low operational flexibility
Preferred

Summary quantitative comparison nickel sulfide vs nickel laterite
Category Importance Nickel laterite Nickel sulfide
Health, safety environmental issues 5 2.0 3.0
Financial considerations 5 2.3 3.3
Technical feasibility & operational risk 5 2.8 3.7
Score achieved 2.4 3.3
Note: High score indicates preference. Valuations range from 1 to 5. The score achieved is calculated as the
weighted average of valuations per category. The assessment is based on the following criteria:
• HSE: Positive heath and safety impact, positive environmental issues impact
• Financial considerations: Capital expenditure, operational expenditure, revenue, competitive advantage
• Technical feasibility and operational risk: Technical feasibility, quality result obtained, interference to
existing operations, simplicity, system reliability, flexibility of the operation, ability to monitor and
control, technological acceptance within the industry, suitability choice of manufacturer(s)/partner(s)
Preferred

Production and reserves (1/3)
Source: www.USGS.gov
In the last two decades reserves kept up with the production rate growth

The nickel industry attempted to reduce unit cost by increasing output. This has
acted to further decrease prices and is not sustainable for all operations.
Source: www.USGS.gov, www.infomine.com

Note: Chart based on data world primary mine production and identified reserves. Influence
secondary production (as a result of recycling) not included.
At a glance it does not look as if we will run out of nickel very soon…

State of affairs summary
• Nickel is a top 10 metal (#6) in terms of revenue
• The market for nickel is global and relatively competitive
• There are two sources of nickel: Nickel laterite and nickel sulfide
• Nickel laterite is recovered from weathered rock & amenable to open pit mining, usually at
high CAPEX & OPEX. There are many undeveloped nickel laterite deposits.
• Nickel sulfide is favored. Characterized by lower cost, higher Ni grades, and often byproduct
credits that result in a low position on the cost curve. This material is also easier to process
using conventional mining technologies.
• Over the past two decades nickel reserves have increased and kept up with the growth in
production. After several years of surplus, Nickel is currently trading around all time inflation
corrected lows (past 100 years).
As a result nickel is not much loved in the industry

So what about the future?

Expected future developments (1/8)
I. The curtain will (continue) to fall on some producers
II. We see encouraging signs that the nickel market is about to rebound:
• Nickel supply is expected to slightly reduce in 2016
• 2016 looks like the first year in five that there will be a demand surplus
• Relative reserves have been shrinking and are currently overestimated.
• Future nickel demand looks solid

Stating the obvious: In a market that is 50% underwater, not everyone is going
to make it. Assets owned by the companies on the list below occupy the best 50% of positions on
the cost curve and are therefore the least likely to default.
I. Norilsk nickel
II. Vale
III. Glencore
IV. Jinchuan Group
V. Anglo American
VI. BHP Billiton
VII. First quantum
VIII. Cunico resources
IX. Eramet
X. Cubanickel
XI. Western Areas
Companies that occupy best cost curve positions If a nickel producer is not on this list,
chances are it has been in trouble
for some time. For these companies
even a significant and quick rise in
the nickel price may no longer be
enough to keep the wolves at bay…
Source data: Norilsk nickel presentation 2013

Developments in production rates usually lag 1 or 2 years behind price fluctuations. The production
rate is expected to decline slightly in 2016.

For those that can hang on there is light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time in the last
five years the nickel market looks to be heading towards a deficit for 2016.
Sources: LME, SHFE, Infomine, USGS, nickel institute, fastmarkets.com

Since 2009, reserves have shrunk by 39% as a result of depletion, impairments
caused by lower metal prices, and reduced exploration efforts.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Nickelreserves[years]
Relative nickel reserves
31 years
51 years
-39%
Note: Chart based on data world primary mine production and identified reserves.
Influence secondary nickel production (as a result of recycling) not included.

Although there are no set rules in the determination of the right price on which to base reserve
estimates, the securities and exchange commission generally accepts the lowest of:
• The spot price
• The three year moving average
Based on a H1 2016 monthly
average of 8,665 USD/ton and
todays price of 10,360 USD/ton
(28/7/2106) it is expected that the
reserve base will decline further
under the influence of
impairments.

Factors influencing nickel demand
• Global population +33% Increase up to 2050 projected by UN
• Average GDP per capita Rising, particularly in developing nations
• Construction Urbanization expected (developing nations)
• Nickel price Currently trading at historic lows (conditions ideal for the
creation new nickel products)
• Innovation Ni properties include corrosion resistance, toughness,
strength at high & low temperatures, favorable magnetic &
electronic properties. These properties may be in demand
w.r.t. future products.
• Substitution potential Some substitutes for stainless steel products exist and
become attractive at (much) higher Ni prices

• We believe that nickel is a versatile and adaptable commodity with hard to beat favorable
attributes: Corrosion resistance, toughness, strength at high and low temperatures, favorable
magnetic and electronic properties.
• As a result we do not believe that – despite phenomenal historic growth in the application of
nickel – nickel demand will subside below current production levels in the next twenty years. In
fact, during this time we are expecting the nickel demand to further increase.
• The future of nickel may be as volatile as its past, which presents significant opportunities to a
diversified investor.
Several years of surplus appear to have come to an end we expect to see that
the price of nickel will substantially recover in H2 2016.

Five potential investments (1/4)
We believe that this is the time to invest

Five opportunities
Particularly if you are (i) an equity company searching for high yield investment opportunities, (ii) a
junior or diversified miner already engaged in nickel, (iii) or a mining equipment manufacturer – at a
risk level that suits your organization – Interesting opportunities include, but are not limited to:
1. Trading in physical nickel or financial nickel derivative products (short – medium – long term)
2. Carry out exploration for and investigate feasibility of exploiting new nickel sulfide deposits yourself
or sell to another mining company (medium – long term)
3. Investigate feasibility acquiring the rights to & exploiting a known undeveloped massive low grade
Ni sulfide resource by block caving (long term)
4. Develop sensor sorting technology to sort low grade Ni sulfide ore (long term)
5. Develop a nickel laterite process that is better from an HSE, financial, and technical feasibility &
operational risk perspective (long term)

Thank you for your attention!
Our team of consultants can help you realize your mining projects
For more information on these opportunities and other services we provide, please contact us.
Willem Blaisse Reliable, cost effective, innovative
Mining consultant and partner BME
Blast Mining Enterprises
Lauriergracht 123 – II Hoog
1016 RK Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Email: jwblaisse@blastminingenterprises.com
Phone: +31622015563
www.blastminingenterprises.com
Cu
Au
Ni
Ag
Co
Zn
Fe
Pb
Al
U
CaCO3
Minerals

H2 2016 Commodity outlook Nickel

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