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Introduction to System Dynamics

                         Peter S. Hovmand, PhD, MSW
                   Founding Director, Social System Design Lab
                           Brown School of Social Work
                          Washington University in St. Louis




November 2011                        WUHM Meeting                1
System Dynamics
• Field invented by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1958
• System dynamics:
      – “The use of informal maps and formal models with 
        computer simulation to uncover and understand 
        endogenous sources of system behavior” [emphasis 
        added] (Richardson, 2011, p. 241)

• Foundations of system dynamics:
      – Endogenous perspective
            • Stock or level (state) variables representing accumulations
                – Flow or rate variables representing activity
                     » Using computers to simulate more realistic mathematical models

Richardson, G.P. (2011). Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics. System Dynamics 
Review, 27(3), 219‐243.


November 2011                           WUHM Meeting                                           2
Model Based System Insights
              Informal                        Modeling                          Formal
Surface 
 system 
insights



                  There is a system                                          Informal 
                  The components of a system                                   maps
                  How the components are related through feedback
                  How people might think about a system
                  Where one could intervene
      Depth




                  What is transformation
                  What is the generic structure
                  What are the implications of accumulations and nonlinear 
                     relationships
                  What systems can generate the dynamic behavior
                  Where are the leverage points
insights
system 
Deep 




                  When do boundary conditions determine behavior
                  Why do things happen                                      Simulation 
                                                                              models
  November 2011                           WUHM Meeting                                    3
Examples of different uses of models
• Raise awareness and promote learning about 
  complex systems
• Motivating discussions about the need to 
  involve multiple stakeholders and solve 
  coordination problems
• Policy analysis and design
• Motivate change


November 2011       WUHM Meeting                4
Todays’ design discussion
• Urban Health Model
     – Overview of the model and interface
     – Hands‐on experience with using the model and 
       prototype interface
• Design discussion
     – How could you imagine using the model?
     – Who would you use the model with?
     – What would need to be developed to facilitate 
       that use? 

November 2011             WUHM Meeting                  5

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An Introduction to System Dynamics

  • 1. Introduction to System Dynamics Peter S. Hovmand, PhD, MSW Founding Director, Social System Design Lab Brown School of Social Work Washington University in St. Louis November 2011 WUHM Meeting 1
  • 2. System Dynamics • Field invented by Jay W. Forrester at MIT in 1958 • System dynamics: – “The use of informal maps and formal models with  computer simulation to uncover and understand  endogenous sources of system behavior” [emphasis  added] (Richardson, 2011, p. 241) • Foundations of system dynamics: – Endogenous perspective • Stock or level (state) variables representing accumulations – Flow or rate variables representing activity » Using computers to simulate more realistic mathematical models Richardson, G.P. (2011). Reflections on the foundations of system dynamics. System Dynamics  Review, 27(3), 219‐243. November 2011 WUHM Meeting 2
  • 3. Model Based System Insights Informal Modeling Formal Surface  system  insights There is a system Informal  The components of a system maps How the components are related through feedback How people might think about a system Where one could intervene Depth What is transformation What is the generic structure What are the implications of accumulations and nonlinear  relationships What systems can generate the dynamic behavior Where are the leverage points insights system  Deep  When do boundary conditions determine behavior Why do things happen Simulation  models November 2011 WUHM Meeting 3
  • 4. Examples of different uses of models • Raise awareness and promote learning about  complex systems • Motivating discussions about the need to  involve multiple stakeholders and solve  coordination problems • Policy analysis and design • Motivate change November 2011 WUHM Meeting 4
  • 5. Todays’ design discussion • Urban Health Model – Overview of the model and interface – Hands‐on experience with using the model and  prototype interface • Design discussion – How could you imagine using the model? – Who would you use the model with? – What would need to be developed to facilitate  that use?  November 2011 WUHM Meeting 5