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BAMUG Getting it Right Embassy Suites, Santa Clara CA Oct. 16, 2007 Wayne Hodgins

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[email_address] www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins Strategic Futurist President & Co-Founder Learnativity.org Chair, IEEE Learning Technology Standards Committee Learning Object Metadata 0 Strategic Advisor

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Seeing Patterns & Trends:

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WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!

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It’s ALL Yours! <ul><li>For Questions & Comments please contact: </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>For slides, blogs, podcasts and more: </li></ul><ul><li>www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins </li></ul><ul><li>Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/ </li></ul>

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www.CreativeCommons.org

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Disruptive Innovation! <ul><li>There’s one in YOUR future!! </li></ul><ul><li>And another one right behind it! </li></ul>

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Perfecting the Irrelevant?!! <ul><li>Are we all </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>very </li></ul><ul><li>busy doing this??? </li></ul>

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Solution: <ul><li>Don’t confuse your ACTIVITIES with your VALUE PROPOSITION! </li></ul><ul><li>Work at figuring out what YOUR Value Proposition is: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You personally </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your team </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your department </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your organization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Your industry </li></ul></ul>

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The Snowflake Effect Unique is What We Seek! Wayne Hodgins

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The Snowflake Effect: The ideal is getting to “just right*”… <ul><li>Just the right CONTENT , to </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right PERSON , with </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right PARTNERS , at </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right TIME , on </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right DEVICE , in </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right CONTEXT , and </li></ul><ul><li>Just the right WAY ……… </li></ul><ul><li>* not to be confused with perfection!! </li></ul>UP

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The Snowflake Effect <ul><li>M a S S P e R S O N A L i Z A T i O N </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(Or if you insist on a prefix call it..) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>me Learning! </li></ul><ul><li>Personalized Learning Experiences for every person every day </li></ul><ul><ul><li>all 6.6 billion of us -- every day!! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Just for me and just right: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Time, place, amount, device, medium, way… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>On demand, adaptive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Markets of one: Billions of Markets </li></ul><ul><li>Learning in ALL forms: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Formal AND informal </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>not just online, on computer, on screen, etc, but every where, every time </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment” </li></ul>

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The RIGHT BRAIN Economy “ The Right Brain will rule the future” - Daniel Pink

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The Ambidextrous Mind <ul><li>LEFT Brain </li></ul><ul><li>Sequential reasoning </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis </li></ul><ul><li>text </li></ul><ul><li>RIGHT Brain </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic reasoning </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><li>context </li></ul><ul><li>images </li></ul><ul><li>Pattern recognition </li></ul><ul><li>Interpret emotions and non verbal </li></ul>

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Right Brain Economy <ul><li>Automation </li></ul><ul><li>Abundance </li></ul><ul><li>X-Sourcing: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>OUT Sourcing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Crowd Sourcing </li></ul></ul>

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The RIGHT BRAINED ECONOMY Designing from the Right Side of the Brain: <ul><li>The left brain is necessary but NOT sufficient </li></ul><ul><li>Well captured by Daniel Pink’s “A Whole New Mind: Why Right-Brainers will Rule the Future” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Automation taking over most of the left side roles and jobs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The rising “Economy of Abundance” putting a whole new emphasis on design and in particular on the appeal to the senses such as with “emotional design” </li></ul></ul>

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Whole New Mind: Right brain economy <ul><li>For more info see: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>http://www.danpink.com/aboutwnm.php </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie http://www.learning2007.com/university/2005/8/10/dan-pink-interview-a-whole-mind-audio-podcast-text-transcript-new.html </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State University http://www.ncsu.edu/felder-public/Columns/Flatmind.pdf </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don Norman: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The Design of Everyday Things </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Emotional Design </li></ul></ul></ul>

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INTO the FUTURE: DESIGN

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DESIGN is THE differentiator of the Future: <ul><ul><li>“ businesses are realizing that the only way to differentiate their goods and services in today's overstocked, materially abundant marketplace is to make their offerings transcendent, physically beautiful and emotionally compelling.&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;the MFA is the new MBA“ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Daniel Pink </li></ul>MFA = Master of Fine Arts MBA = Master of Business Administration

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The LONG TAIL Economy of ABUNDANCE “ The Future of Business is Selling LESS of MORE” - Chris Anderson

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Scarcity Abundance With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com

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Scarcity Abundance With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com

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<ul><li>Blog: thelongtail.com </li></ul>

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Long Tail <ul><li>“ The future of business is selling less of more.” </li></ul><ul><li>The economics of abundance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creative squandering </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Market of one is the biggest of all? </li></ul><ul><li>The “getting small” of business: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>&quot;The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 books </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000 </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are! </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Google makes most of its money from small advertisers </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>eBay the same </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of print” </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Stuck in the physical world for our frame of reference </li></ul><ul><li>Transform from mass markets to mass marketing </li></ul><ul><li>Finding vs.. searching </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collaborative filtering, social recommender systems, pattern recognition </li></ul></ul>

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Scarcity Abundance With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com

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Anatomy of the Long Tail Courtesy Wired magazine

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Courtesy Wired magazine

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Premature Arrival of the Future The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed! - William Gibson The art of the possible in practice today!

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Pandora and the Music Genome Project

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INTO the FUTURE: DESIGN

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Future of Design and the people within: <ul><li>Project based </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-discipline </li></ul><ul><li>Collaborative </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic and heuristic </li></ul><ul><li>Right brain dominated </li></ul><ul><li>Design for the economy of abundance </li></ul>

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The Future of Design & Work: <ul><li>Bad news: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>the future will be dominated by right brain female thinkers. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Good news: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>this is all about the brain, not the body! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>(applies equally to all of us) </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Anyone can (and needs to) develop an “ambidextrous and transgender mind” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Most (including women) needing to ADD “female brain” and “right brain” skills and thinking. </li></ul></ul>

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Redefining Design examples: <ul><li>Functional design </li></ul><ul><li>Emotional design </li></ul><ul><li>Design of everyday things </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For a world of abundance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ Do good” Design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Green or “E” design </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SUSTAINABLE design </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Design of and for the “virtual world”, </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Moving beyond the design of “physical things” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Movies, special effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Intelligent modeling </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Virtual world “products” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Eg need to design and “build” most everything in the “real world” in virtual worlds such as Second Life </li></ul></ul></ul>

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Some skills of the Future: <ul><li>Learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>+ UN learning + RE learning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Design </li></ul><ul><ul><li>redefined </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Heuristics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Finding solutions, solving problems through trial and error, learning from failures </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Story telling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Narrative threads, multiple </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Synthesis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Putting pieces together to create whole new combinations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>mashups </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Smart decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Finding (vs. searching) </li></ul><ul><li>Semantics (meaning) </li></ul><ul><li>Abstracting </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Characterizing attributes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tagging (metadata), relationships, patterns </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Collaboration </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Contribution, articulation, listening </li></ul></ul>

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Thoughts for the Future: <ul><li>Think UNIVERSAL and NOT NATIONAL when it comes to the skills, knowledge and capabilities of the future. </li></ul><ul><li>Develop execution strategies that adapt and adopt these to leverage local, national and cultural contexts </li></ul><ul><li>Shift towards RIGHT BRAIN dominance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Left brain necessary but insufficient </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Check to see if you and/or your team are very busy “perfecting the irrelevant” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Requires that you know YOUR value proposition </li></ul></ul>

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The Snowflake Effect Unique is What We Seek! Wayne Hodgins

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Are YOU a Snowflake? (or just a flake?) <ul><li>What are YOU doing to develop snowflake solutions for EVERY ONE of your snowflake clients? </li></ul><ul><li>What is your team, division, company doing to apply the Snowflake Effect ? </li></ul>

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Innovation not replication!

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Innovation not replication! <ul><li>Let’s stop “flapping” </li></ul><ul><li>and replicating past artifacts </li></ul><ul><li>It is NOT about flapping faster!! </li></ul><ul><li>Let’s start thinking </li></ul><ul><li>DIFFERENTLY !! </li></ul>How does this apply to YOU?!

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Thank You! For Questions & Comments please contact: [email_address] See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much more: www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins