Economy Report of United Arab Emirates

Higher Colleges of Technology, Abu Dhabi

December 22
UAE
Economy
project 2011
By
Salem Abdulla Al Baloushi
Abdulrahman Mohamed Al Marzooqi UAE Economy Project
Waleed Qassim Al Yafaie for:N410
Mohammed Nabeel Al Haj Int. and UAE Economics
Dr. Chaher Al Zaman

UAE Economy project 2011

Contents
Background ................................................................................................................................................... 3
GCC and Oil and Gas in the UAE ................................................................................................................... 6
GCC Economics: ........................................................................................................................................ 6
What does it do and what benefit does it give to its members? .......................................................... 7
Discussing trade agreement between GCC nations, and what are their implications on members’
economies? ........................................................................................................................................... 7
Addressing the actual inner-trading between GCC countries .............................................................. 7
Discussing GCC trading in the UAE economy (how much does it account for as part of the GDP). ..... 8
OPEC............................................................................................................................................................ 10
Recent Development and Future Prospects of the UAE Economy ............................................................. 11
Unemployment Rate in the UAE: ............................................................................................................ 11
GDP in the UAE: ...................................................................................................................................... 12
External Factors: ..................................................................................................................................... 13
Current and Future of non-oil sector ...................................................................................................... 15
References .................................................................................................................................................. 18

2

ETEC-N410 | HCT. Abu Dhabi


Background
Thirty years ago the UAE was one of the least developed countries of the world. Today, it
has achieved an income level comparable to that of the industrialized nations. The UAE did not
pass through the hypothetical development ‘stages’ that most developed countries seem to have
experienced. Rather, its large oil revenues have allowed her to leap these stages to the stage of
high mass consumption. Massive oil revenues have enabled the UAE to short-cut the usually
difficult and lengthy process of saving and capital accumulation necessary for economic
development. Given an abundance of natural resource endowments (oil and gas), the UAE has
embraced resource-based industries (RBI) as a development strategy, an industrial strategy that
is based on utilization of natural resources. There has been a deployment of windfall income,
largely directed at a ‘once-and-for-all’ boost to the social and economic infrastructure, which
enabled the UAE to achieve a significant degree of economic development within the very brief
timeframe of 1973 to 1982, a period of relatively high oil prices.

Before the discovery and export of oil, the economy of the Trucial States (which today
form the UAE) depended mainly on subsistence agriculture, nomadic animal husbandry, the
extracting of pearls and the trade in pearls, fishing, and seafaring. The period before the
discovery of oil, therefore, reflected the country’s limited natural resources, and resulted in a
simple subsistence economy. The epoch of economic development in the UAE (or the UAE’s
First Development Decade) began in the early 1970s, the federation’s formation on 2 December
1971 (and the establishment of its formal economic, social, and political institutions) coinciding
with a massive increase in oil production and oil exports, followed by the explosive rise in oil
prices in 1973. Since its formation in 1971 the UAE has enjoyed a political stability. The existing
political structures appear to suit the tribal society of the UAE, and the distribution of huge oil
revenues in the form of social and economic infrastructure, high salaries, a high standard of
social services, such as health and education, has raised the standard of living for UAE citizens
and considerably reduced the likelihood of internal political and social unrest. It is worth 3
mentioning that the UAE Government has maintained a relatively good record on human rights
since the formation of the state. This in turn has promoted political and social stability.



The UAE is an active member of many regional and international associations such as the
Arab League, the United Nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, the Arab Gulf Cooperation
Council, and the Organization of the Islamic Conference. Relations with many countries of the
world, particularly the Western democratic countries, have been traditionally warm. Political and
social stability has gone hand in hand with liberal trade policies and has paved the way for
investment (domestic and international) in the industrial sector. The UAE is endowed with vast
reserves of oil, both offshore and onshore. Associated gas from crude oil production and non-
associated gas is also produced. Since the early 1970s the UAE’s phenomenal growth has
depended largely on the discovery and exploitation of oil. The oil and gas industries are well
managed and the latest technology is continuously harnessed to increase productive efficiency.

According to the UAE Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, the UAE maximum
sustainable daily capacity of oil production (maximum production rate that can be sustained
daily for one year in present conditions of exploitation) is 2 million barrels a day. Its installed
production capacity is over 3 million barrels per day. In 2000, proven oil reserves in the UAE
were 98.8 billion barrels, the third largest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia, and Iraq.
The UAE’s proven oil reserves were estimated to be almost 10 per cent of the proven world oil
reserves in June 2000. On the basis of current daily oil production of 2 .2 million barrels per day,
it is estimated that oil reserves in the UAE will last for more than 122 years.

While value added growth rate in the UAE oil sector was fluctuating during the period
1975–1998, the manufacturing sector value added growth rate was steadily increasing. The
manufacturing value added increased considerably from Dh 472 million in 1975 to Dh 9443
million in 1985, and to Dh 18,855 million in 1998 (at constant prices). Its contribution to GDP
increased significantly from 0.9 per cent in 1975 to 3.8 per cent in 1980, and to 12.4 per cent in
1998. Nonetheless, it is obvious that the substantial increase in the manufacturing value added
has made a modest contribution to the UAE’s total output growth. Agricultural production
increased more than fourfold from 1975 to 1998 at an average annual growth rate of 12.6 per 4

cent. This consistent increase in the agricultural output is attributed to the sustained efforts of the
UAE’s Government to promote agricultural development with generous agricultural incentives


and subsidies. Changes in the contribution to GDP of the non-oil sector (agriculture), however,
increased at a moderate rate. In 1998, the agricultural sector comprised about 3.6 per cent of
GDP. A conspicuous sectoral shift and contribution to GDP is evident in the service sector,
commerce (wholesale and retail trade), restaurants, hotels, transport, storage, communications,
finance, insurance, real estates and government services. The service sector contribution to GDP
increased from 22.3 per cent in 1975 to 39.7 per cent in 1998.

Relative importance of UAE’S non-oil sectors 1975-1998
Sectors 1975 1980 1985 1995 1998
Agriculture 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.0 3.6
Manufacturing 0.9 6.9 9.2 8.7 12.4
Electricity and Water 0.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.8
Construction 9.0 8.3 8.8 8.4 9.4
Commerce, Restaurants & Hotels 9.3 9.0 8.8 10.1 13.7
Transport, Storage & Communications 3.0 3.4 3.8 5.5 7.0
Financing & Insurance 1.6 3.5 5.1 4.3 6.7
Real Estate 2.5 3.8 4.9 6.2 10.5
Government Services 4.8 7.0 10.5 10.9 11.8
Table 1.0 – Percentage of GDP of non-oil sectors.

Abu Dhabi's Vision 2030 is a government-backed development plan for the emirate that
sets guidelines for key infrastructure, real estate, tourism and financial targets for the next 20
years, as the city aims to assert its place as a global hub and capital of the UAE federation. It has
been developed using international best practices from key world cities, mixing these with its
specific cultural and environmental heritage, with sustainability playing a key part in the
planning. The plan also focuses on the logistical growth of Abu Dhabi, as it aims to
accommodate estimates of 3.1 million residents by 2030. New public transport infrastructure is
being planned and implemented, as are provisions for affordable housing for UAE nationals and
5
low and mid income groups. The Abu Dhabi Government believes that the growth targets set by
the Vision are achievable. If at all the Emirate misses the annual growth target in an adverse


year, it will not impact the ultimate achievement of the long-term growth and diversification
targets. In any year of good growth, Abu Dhabi will easily exceed the set annual growth target,'
the Chairman of Abu Dhabi Department of Planning and Economy Nasser Ahmed Al Suwaidi
said in a recent interview. The long-term nature of the Economic Vision 2030 ensures that the
transformation of Abu Dhabi's economy will be unaffected by short-term economic events.
Successfully implementing the Economic Vision 2030 will ensure that the Emirate remains in a
strong position to withstand global economic challenges such as those the world is currently
facing.

GCC and Oil and Gas in the UAE
GCC Economics:

The year 2011 marked 30 years since the establishment of the GCC. The GCC is The
Cooperation Council for the Arab States. The Council, consisting of the six Arab monarchies of
the Gulf region, which are: The United Arab Emirates, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Sultanate of
Oman, State of Qatar, State of Bahrain and State of Kuwait. This union was a response of
geographical and political nature to the Khomeinistic revolution, and the Iran-Iraq war that
followed. The GCC was established in view of the special relations between the Gulf States,
their similar political systems based on Islamic beliefs and common objectives. The proximity of
6
these countries geographically and the adoption of free trade and economic policies are factors
that encouraged them to establish the GCC.



What does it do and what benefit does it give to its members?
The objective of the establishment of the GCC is to coordinate and merge between the
Gulf States in different fields and aspects, having lows that are similar in different fields
economically, financially, trading, legislation, administration, customs and tourism, to have
unified ideals, opinions and ventures, which in turn will benefit the GCC members in making
processes easier and faster.

Discussing trade agreement between GCC nations, and what are their implications on
members’ economies?
GCC members have adopted ambitious investment strategies on institutional
infrastructure, creating free-trade zones for manufacturing and developing services and facilities
that will attract increasing numbers of businesses, skilled knowledge workers, and tourists.
Witnessing the recent surge in multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates, including King Abdullah Economic City and the Saudi Power Network.

The GCC states are also making huge financial investments in the developed world: In
August 2007, the petrochemical manufacturer Saudi Basic Industries Corporation (SABIC) spent
$11.6 billion to acquire Massachusetts-based GE Plastics. The previous year, SABIC paid $700
million to acquire UK-based Huntsman Petrochemicals. In autumn 2007, the Mubadala
Development Company, an investment vehicle of the government of Abu Dhabi, purchased
stakes in the private equity firm Carlyle Group and in the California-based chip maker AMD.
And in June 2008, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund of Abu Dhabi,
invested $7.5 billion in New York–based Citigroup.

Addressing the actual inner-trading between GCC countries

Official data showed cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) among the GCC
countries is estimated at around $74 billion until the end of 2008, more than a quarter of the 7

overall FDI attracted by the six members. The figures showed the UAE is the largest capital
exporter to other GCC members, with a total capital of around $45.7bn including nearly $44.4bn


in Saudi Arabia. A large part of those investments are controlled by Emaar Properties and
Etisalat, according to the figures by the Kuwaiti-based Inter-Arab Investment Guarantee
Corporation (IAIGC), a key Arab League establishment. Kuwait came second with total FDI in
the GCC standing at around $13bn, most of which are based in the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Bahrain’s investment in the other GCC members stood at about $10.2bn, mostly in Saudi Arabia,
while Saudi FDI in the 30-year-old Gulf group are estimated at nearly $3bn, including around
$2.4bn in the UAE. FDI by Qatar and Oman stood at $1.75bn and $0.46bn respectively.

Besides investment, merger moves by the GCC countries also sharply boosted trade
exchange between them, jumping by more than six times to a record high of around $91 billion
in 2009 from nearly $15 billion in 2002. Despite the global crisis, which depressed trade
worldwide, inter-GCC commercial exchange soared by nearly 40 per cent in 2009 from its 2008
level of about $65bn, according to the Emirates Industrial Bank.

Discussing GCC trading in the UAE economy (how much does it account for as part of the
GDP).
In the year 2000, the spread in per capita GDP between the six GCC states was noticeable:

Qatar US $ 28442

UAE US $ 26914
Kuwait US $ 17328

Bahrain US $ 12344

Oman US $ 8254

Saudi Arabia US $ 8031

8



45000
US dollars 40000
35000 Qatar
30000
UAE
25000
20000 Kuw ait
15000 KSA
10000 Bahrain
5000 Oman
0
1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999
UAE GDP p/c Bahrain GDP p/c KSA GDP p/c
Oman GDP p/c Qatar GDP p/c Kuwait GDP p/c

GDP Growth(%)

300
250
200
150
growth

100 Kuwait
(% )

50
0
1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

-50
-100
UAE growth Bahrain growth KSA growth
Oman growth Qatar growth Kuwait GDP growth

9



OPEC

OPEC is an international Organization of eleven developing countries which are heavily
reliant on oil revenues as their main source of income. Membership is open to any country which
is a substantial net exporter of oil which shares the ideals of the Organization. The current
members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, The
United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

The OPEC Statute, written when OPEC was formed in 1960, declares that OPEC is
dedicated to providing a stable petroleum market, with steady supplies to consumers, reasonable
prices and fair returns to investors in the oil industry. In pursuit of these aims, OPEC has for
many years maintained a limit on the oild produced by its member countries. This has provided
for a relatively stable oil industry with reasonable prices.

Since oil revenues are so vital for the economic development of these nations, they aim to
bring stability and harmony to the oil market by adjusting their oil output to help ensure a
balance between supply and demand. Twice a year, or more frequently if required, the oil and
energy Ministers of OPEC members meet to decide on the organization’s output level, and
consider whether any action to adjust output is necessary in the light of recent and anticipated oil
market developments.

OPEC's eleven members collectively supply 40% of the world's oil output, and possess
more than three-quarters of the world's total proven crude oil reserves.

According to reference case of OPEC’s World Energy Model (OWEM), total world oil
demand in 2000 was put at 76 million barrels per day. As world economic growth continues,
crude oil demand will also rise to 90.6m b/d in 2010 and 103.2m b/d by 2020. This illustrates
how the world depends increasingly on OPEC resources.
The first five countries that have the largest oil resources of the world are all OPEC countries.

Table 2.2.0 – OPEC countries have the largest oil resources (M brls)

10


These are, however, not the largest oil producers. As we have learnt, the OPEC cartel makes the
producers more cautious, they tend to exploit their resources more slowly than other countries.
The largest producers of the world are:

Table 2.2.1 – The largest oil producers (Million barrels per day)

Oil is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out, although not for many years to
come. OPEC’s oil reserves are sufficient to last another 80 years at the current rate of production,
while non-OPEC oil producer’s reserves might last less than 20 years. The worldwide demand
for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an increasingly important source of that oil. If we
manage our resources well, use the oil efficiently and develop new field, then our oil reserves
should last for many more generations to come. It’s interesting to see that not all OPEC members
have equally huge reserves. The remaining 6 OPEC countries still have considerable amount of
crude oil, but less than the others. The largest OPEC country has 75 times more oil than the
smallest one. There are large and small countries in this cartel.

Recent Development and Future Prospects of the UAE Economy
Unemployment Rate in the UAE:

Unemployment rate is simply defined as the number of people not working but are seeking jobs

and are willing to work. In the UAE, unemployment rate has recorded a decrease over the last

decade, and number of employees has been increasing. The graph below shows how number of

labor force is increasing, reaching its highest percentage in the current year.

11


Since unemployment rate has serious negative effects in general, and the UAE is no exception,

government has set a new policy which it has called Emiratization. Emiratization is a plan to

replace non-national employees in the UAE by Emirati employees over a certain period of time,

and on certain percentage every year (Al Zaabi, Mayed), and Emiratization is done in both public

and private sectors. This policy is one of the reasons that led to decreasing the number of

unemployment rate in the UAE, said Al Zaabi.

GDP in the UAE:

The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is an indicator of all services and goods produced in a

country over a certain period, and it considers the market value of goods and services to reach a

number used to evaluate the growth rate of the economy (wisegeek.com).

The UAE GDP is worth 0.37% of the world economy (tradingeconomics.com), and since the

discovery of oil, the UAE economy has dramatically changed to a better situation.

GDP in the UAE has increased over the last decade, and it has reached its highest value in 2009,

as shown in the graph below, yet it slightly decreased in 2010.

12


When talking about GDP in any region, we have to highlight to different GDPs, and those are

nominal and real GDP. According to investopedia.com, nominal GDP is a GDP figure that has

not been adjusted for inflation, whereas real GDP is it is a nation's total output of goods and

services, adjusted for price changes (investorglossary.com). The charts below show both values

in the UAE over the last five years. The charts show that nominal GDP has reached its highest

value in 2008, and lowest value in 2005, where rel GDP was in its highest value in 2006, and its

lowest value in 2009.

External Factors:

The UAE economy is in a very good status, and has been improving over the last decade. This

has been observed in many ways, and some of those ways are:

 The UAE has attracted many international exhibitions to be held in different cities, and

those exhibitions are in different fields include but are not limited to industrial,

educational, technical.

 The UAE has attracted many international investors to invest their projects and

businesses within the country, and this has been seen in different fields. We have

witnessed buildings that are constructed and designed by international companies. Also,
13
we have seen some international institutes that have taken place in the UAE such as New

York University and Paris Sorbonne.


 Specialists in different fields have approached the UAE to work in, and this has been seen

in in almost every field in the UAE such as industrial, technical, educational, economical,

law, etc.

All indicators show that the UAE economy will continue growing due to the wise leadership and

creative thinking of our local government that tend to create partnered projects with other

governments. Our economy is well connected with other countries, and is based on external

factors, as well as internal. This means that as much as those external factors are supporting our

economy, they may as well negatively affect our economy. Such external factors that may affect

the UAE economy are the following:

 Other countries may stop approaching the UAE for oil due to the use of other energy

source such as solar energy or any natural or environment friendly source. This will lead

to a major economic drop since UAE mainly depends on oil as a source on nation

income. The best way to avoid this economic drop is to look for other energy sources that

the UAE can depend on as an income source, and the UAE has currently started to

provide alternatives. One of the alternatives that the UAE has focused on is nuclear

energy, and this was emphasized in the establishment of Emirates Nuclear Energy

Corporation (ENEC) in December 2009 to provide safe nuclear energy that is needed to

support the UAE’s economic growth (enec.gov.ae). Another option that the UAE has

focused on is the renewable energy, and this has led to found Masdar, a commercially

driven organization that works to reach the broad boundaries of the renewable energy and

sustainable technologies industry (masdar.ae).
14


 Specialists that approach the UAE for job opportunities may approach other destinations

due to the existence of better offers. The UAE is relatively a new born country compared

to other nations, and there are not many nationals specialized in all fields needed to grow

the economics of the country. Therefore, the UAE welcomes specialists in different fields

to work in, and provide them with the best offers ever to attract them to work in different

organizations based on their experiences. This will help developing all fields in the UAE,

because those specialists implement their experience and talent in the UAE. If those

specialists are attracted by other offers, they will approach because it is everybody’s

target to develop and improve his status. The best way to avoid this incident is to allow

UAE nationals to gain those experiences, and this may be done by several ways.

Government may provide opportunities to UAE students for adequate higher education,

and give them chance to get certificates in various fields. Also, employees in different

fields may be given training in special areas that are filled by expatriates, thus they are

able to replace them if anything happens, and those expatriates get to leave their jobs for

any reason. Training may be provided in different ways such as on-job-training, courses,

on-line training, shadowing, and many other different and effective methods.

Current and Future of non-oil sector
As mentioned previously in this paper, oil is considered the main income of the UAE hat has

positively affected its GDP. Moreover, the oil production in the UAE keeps rising, and it rose by

almost one percent last October to reach 2.33 million barrels per day (gulfnews.com).

Nevertheless, the UAE must consider other options due to any emergencies that may lead to 15


decreasing oil production in the UAE. This will allow the UAE to remain stable and healthy

economy.

The UAE has thought about two alternatives that may replace oil if production is affected, and

those options are the following:

 Nuclear Energy:

Nuclear energy is produced from the splitting of uranium atoms in a process that is called

fission. At the power plant, the fission process is used to produce heat for producing

steam, which is used by a turbine to generate electricity.

Advantages of nuclear energy are:

 The Earth has limited sources of non-renewable energy. Nuclear power plants could

still produce electricity non-renewable energy becomes rare.

 Nuclear power plants require less fuel than ones which burn fossil fuels.

 Non-renewable energy burning plants pollute the air. Nuclear power plants do not

release contaminants into the environment.

16


The image below show how nuclear energy is produced.

The UAE has realized that energy demand is growing, and yet oil may not be enough to

satisfy that demand. Therefore, it has started working in this field after the founding of

Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation in 2009, and since then, it has talking the challenge

reaching the target of delivering electricity to the UAE grid in 2017. Also, it is projecting

that by 2020 it will produce almost quarter of the nation’s electricity need (ENEC.gov.ae.

 Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is simply defined as energy that never exhaust such as wind and sun.

The thought of using alternative source of energy has come from the fact that the

consumption of non-renewable energy such as crude oil and coal has led to existence of

harmful gases that negatively affect the environment. Therefore, the UAE has

incorporated the use of renewable energy, and the government has assigned a special

entity to manage and operate that task. Masdar, being established in 2006, started

operating to manage the process of using renewable energy within Abu Dhabi.

17



References

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemploymentrate.asp#axzz1hCAYiFW7, December 20th,

2011

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/unemployment-rate, December 20th,

2011

Interview with Mayed Al Zaabi, Emiratization Officer, Department of Transport.

http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-gdp.htm, December 20th, 2011

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-arab-emirates/gdp, December 20th, 2011

http://www.cityscapeconnect.com/Global/ResearchDocuments/Cluttons-Abu-Dhabi-Property-

Market-Update-Q2-2011.pdf, December 20th, 2011

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nominalgdp.asp#axzz1hCAYiFW7, December 20th, 2011

http://www.investorglossary.com/real-gdp.htm, December 20th, 2011

http://www.menafn.com/updates/research_center/UAE/Economic/kamco130411.pdf, December

20th, 2011

http://www.enec.gov.ae/about-us/history/, December 20th, 2011

http://www.masdar.ae/en/Menu/index.aspx?MenuID=42&CatID=12&mnu=Cat, December 20th,

2011

http://gulfnews.com/business/oil-gas/uae-oil-production-rises-to-2-33m-barrels-a-day-1.714245,

December 20th, 2011

http://edugreen.teri.res.in/explore/renew/what.htm, December 20th, 2011

http://www.westinghousenuclear.com/Community/WhatIsNuclearEnergy.shtm, December 20th,
18
2011


Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council
Ameinfo.com – The ultimate Middle East business resource
McRizer, Dr. Eye. Economics of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi: Higher Colleges Of
Technology, 2006. Print.
uaeinteract.com - Over 50,000 Pages of News and Information on the UAE

Kawach, Nadim, Meet to spur inter-GCC investment, http://www.emirates247.com/news/meet-to-spur-
inter-gcc-investment-2010-12-09-1.326964 , December 15, 2011.

Al-Uwaisheg, Abdel Aziz Hamad Director - Economic Integration Department Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC), Search for criteria of economic convergence in the GCC Area (Presentation), Athens, Greece - 3
February 2003.

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