Middle East and North Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

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WB_Research

Economia e finanças Negócios

Global Economic
Prospects
January 2014

Damir Cosic
World Bank
January 2014

Middle East &
North Africa

www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries
Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar

100

80
60
40
20
Tunisia

0
-20

Jordan

-40

Egypt, Arab Rep.

-60
-80
Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries

Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) survey crossed into positive
territory in November 2013 for the
first time in 13 months, signaling an
improvement in manufacturing
output going forward.

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar

80
60
Exports

40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily
depressed.
Growth, 3m/3m, saar

80
60
Exports

40
20
0
-20
-40

Tourist
Arrivals

-60
-80
Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d

10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10

Jul '10

Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d

10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.3

7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10

Jul '10

Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d

10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.5
8.0
7.3

7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10

Jul '10

Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters
mb/d

10.0
10.5

9.5
9.0

8.5
8.5
8.0
7.3

7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
Jan '10

Jul '10

Jan '11

Jul '11

Jan '12

Jul '12

Jan '13

Jul '13

External imbalances have worsened in the region
Current account balance as a share of GDP

Forecast

8

6
4

Oil Exporters

2
0
-2
-4
-6

Developing
MENA
Oil Importers

-8
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board
Fiscal balances as a share of GDP

5

Forecast
Oil Exporters

0

-5
Developing
MENA

-10

Oil Importers

-15

-20
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is
subject to a significant downside risks
% change

6

Forecast

5
4
3

Oil Importers

2

Developing
MENA

1
0
-1
-2
Oil Exporters

-3
-4
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

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Middle East and North Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Damir Cosic World Bank January 2014 Middle East & North Africa www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

2. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

3. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

4. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

5. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

6. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

7. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Industrial production, growth, 3m/3m, saar 100 80 60 40 20 Tunisia 0 -20 Jordan -40 Egypt, Arab Rep. -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13 - 44%

8. Political instability has weakened activity in oil-importing countries Egypt’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey crossed into positive territory in November 2013 for the first time in 13 months, signaling an improvement in manufacturing output going forward.

9. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

10. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

11. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

12. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 Tourist Arrivals -60 -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

13. Although exports are beginning to stabilize, tourism arrivals are still heavily depressed. Growth, 3m/3m, saar 80 60 Exports 40 20 0 -20 -40 Tourist Arrivals -60 - 57% -80 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

14. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

15. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

16. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

17. Security setbacks have negatively affected oil production in developing oilexporters mb/d 10.0 10.5 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.5 8.0 7.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

18. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

19. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

20. External imbalances have worsened in the region Current account balance as a share of GDP Forecast 8 6 4 Oil Exporters 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Developing MENA Oil Importers -8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

21. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board Fiscal balances as a share of GDP 5 Forecast Oil Exporters 0 -5 Developing MENA -10 Oil Importers -15 -20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

22. Fiscal balances have also weakened across the board Fiscal balances as a share of GDP 5 Forecast Oil Exporters 0 -5 Developing MENA -10 Oil Importers -15 -20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

23. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

24. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 2.8% 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

25. Growth will improve in the forecast period--but remain below potential--and is subject to a significant downside risks % change 6 Forecast 5 4 3 Oil Importers 3.6% 2 Developing MENA 1 0 -1 -2 Oil Exporters -3 -4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

26. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 Damir Cosic World Bank January 2014 Middle East & North Africa www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook

Notas do Editor

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Middle East and North Africa Outlook, Jan 2014

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