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NATURAL GAS AS AN ALTERNATE FUEL
FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDIA
                   Summer Project Report
                           Presented To
                       The Academic Faculty

                                 By

                    Varun Kumar Choudhary
                      Roll no.- 11BM60019


                          Industry Guide-
                            Dr. A. P. Dash
            Senior Faculty, Project Management Institute,
                       NTPC Ltd. New Delhi.
                            Mr. B. P. Rath
                Manager, New Project Development
                             NTPC Ltd.


                          Faculty Guide-

                      Dr. Kalyan Kumar Guine
           Professor, Vinod Gupta School of Management,
                           IIT Kharagpur.




      Vinod Gupta School of Management,
    Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur

                                 1
Acknowledgement

I express my profound gratitude to my supervisors, Professor A.P Dash and B. P Rath sir whose
benign guidance has enlightened my path through the course of this work. Besides their
dedication to academic life, their disciplined and austere habits have been a source of constant
inspiration to me. They are humane with willingness to help others, care for everyone, and
always being concerned about the progress. It was an enriching experience to work and learn
under them.




                                                            Varun Kumar Choudhary




                                               2
Table of Contents
  1. Executive Summery - ........................................................................................................ 5
  2. NTPC PROFILE:- ............................................................................................................ 6
  3. Project Objective- ........................................................................................................... 11
  4. Introduction- ................................................................................................................... 12
 4.1   Electricity is prime mover of Indian economy: ............................................................................. 12
 4.2   Electricity demand in India-........................................................................................................... 14
 4.3   Dependence of Electricity demand on GDP growth rate-.............................................................. 15
 4.4   Major available resources for electricity generation-..................................................................... 17
  5. Coal as a fuel for electricity generation- ....................................................................... 19
 5.1   Predominant Position of Coal- ....................................................................................................... 19
 5.2   Inventory of geological resources of coal in India- ....................................................................... 19
 5.3   Type and category-wise coal resources of India-........................................................................... 20
 5.4   Consumption pattern of coal-......................................................................................................... 21
 5.5   Factors Affecting Coal Prices in India-.......................................................................................... 21
   5.5.1        Domestic coal production and demand: .............................................................................. 23
   5.5.2        Coal Import- ........................................................................................................................ 23
   5.5.3        Domestic Coal Price Fixation- .................................................................................. 24
   5.5.4        Quantity of Coal to be sold at market price:- ...................................................................... 25
   5.5.5        Impact of crude oil price on Thermal coal prices:- ............................................................. 25
   5.5.6        Impact of Exchange rate on coal prices:- ............................................................................ 26
   5.5.7        Impact of availability of land on coal prices-...................................................................... 27
  6. Renewable resources in India:-...................................................................................... 29
  7. Natural Gas in India:- .................................................................................................... 37
 7.1   Current Natural Gas Scenario in India-.......................................................................................... 37
 7.2   Demand and Forecasts for India- ................................................................................................... 38
 7.3   Competitive demand from Fertilizer & City Gas Sector- .............................................................. 39
 7.4   Structure of the natural gas sector in India- ................................................................................... 40
 7.5   Domestic Natural Gas in India- ..................................................................................................... 41
 7.6   Domestic Gas pipe lines network in India- .................................................................................... 43
 7.7   Trance-national gas pipe lines- ...................................................................................................... 44
   7.7.1        TAPI- pipeline- ................................................................................................................... 45


                                                                       3
7.7.2          Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline- ............................................................................................. 46
   7.7.3          Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Pipeline- ................................................................................ 47
7.8     Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – ..................................................................................................... 49
   7.8.1          Regasification Capacity of India-........................................................................................ 49
7.9     Coal gasification in India-.............................................................................................................. 50
  8. 8 Factors affecting Natural gas pricing:- ...................................................................... 51
8.1     Natural gas pricing in India- .......................................................................................................... 51
   8.1.1          APM (Administered Pricing Mechanism) Gas Pricing:- ....................................................... 54
   8.1.2          Pricing of Gas under Pre-NELP Production Sharing Contracts (PSC)................................... 55
   8.1.3          Pricing of Gas with reference to NELP Provisions-.............................................................. 55
8.2 Imported Gas (LNG) Pricing- .......................................................................................................... 55
8.3 Pricing Issue:- ................................................................................................................................. 57
8.4 Framework of New Pool Pricing Mechanism:- .............................................................................. 59
   8.4.1          Need for Pool Pricing:- ........................................................................................................ 59
   8.4.2          Proposed Roadmap of Pool Pricing Mechanism:-............................................................... 60
8.5 Effect of Globalization of Gas market on gas prices:- .................................................................... 62
  9. 9 Shale Gas:- .................................................................................................................... 66
9.1 Shale gas historical back ground and development:- .................................................................... 66
9.2 Shale Gas Reserve:- ........................................................................................................................ 68
9.3 Hydraulic fracking- breakthrough in shale gas:- ............................................................................ 69
9.4 Issues with Hydraulic fracking:- ..................................................................................................... 71
9.5 Implication of shale gas reserve on traditional gas producers in US:- .......................................... 71
9.6 Implication on Indian gas market:- ................................................................................................ 72
9.7 China planned for shale gas development:- .................................................................................. 72
  10. Energy Security in India:- .............................................................................................. 74
  11. Findings & Recommendations:- .................................................................................... 79
  12. References:- ..................................................................................................................... 82




                                                                         4
1 Executive Summery -

In India installed capacity for power generation is 199.87 Gigawatt (GW) as of March 2012; the
world’s fifth largest, of which approximately 30,000 MW running idle due to shortage of fuel
supply. The International Energy Agency estimates that estimates India will add between 600
GW to 1200 GW of additional new power generation capacity before 2050. Due to acute
shortfall in domestic coal production to meet demand and higher exchange rate is severely
affecting power sector in India. Exploration of huge shale gas reserve of USA and China and
natural gas have changed prospective of fuel supply. Indian coal is of high ash content and low
sulfur content. Its contribution to power sector is around 56.4% and natural gas contribution to
power sector is around 9.2% of total power generation. Our objective is the scope of natural gas
as an alternate fuel for electricity in India. Due to higher prices of coal and petroleum,
substitutively fuel demand can be met by natural gas. Natural gas demand is continuously
increasing and furcating is done at different scenarios of growth rate. There are three options for
natural gas- domestic natural gas, piped natural gas and imported liquefied natural gas. Domestic
gas production in India is continuously falling down is not viable option. Presently we have a
country wide network of 12,000 km of gas pipeline and having capacity to transport 230 mmscmd
of gas. Study of natural gas pricing method in India and factors affecting natural gas pricing and
scope of new pricing method pool pricing in India. Demand from different sectors i.e. fertilizer,
city gas sector and power sector. And scope of shale gas exploration and production.
With a burgeoning population, we have to recognize that resources are scarce and plan
accordingly. End use efficiency, reduction of wastage and accountability has great potential for
improvement. Investment in coal base electricity needs critical appraisal because of availability,
land requirement, pollution, green house gas emission and ash disposal and increasing cost of
environment needs critical appraisal. Natural gas based electricity generator are generally not
approved because of lack of domestic availability of natural gas besides domestic gas sector has
received a thrust with shale gas and Hydraulic fracking technology in US. A relook into fuel
import i. e. import of coal vis a vis import of natural gas is a national imperative in view of the
need for electricity keeping in view all other collateral concerns. Diesel generator can be
replaced by natural gas plant- In India electricity generated by DG set- 1200 MW at cost of Rs.
12/kwh and grid power at cost of Rs 3/kwh. This market will grow at the rate of 20% for coming
years. Natural gas can be used for distributed power generation-Due to heavy distribution and
transmission losses (around 30%) distributed generation by natural gas is better option as it can
be produced at cost of Rs. 6 to 7 per kwh.




                                                 5
2 NTPC PROFILE:-

NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest state-
owned power generating company in India. Forbes Global 2000 for 2010 ranked it 341th in the
world. It is an Indian public sector company listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange although at
present the Government of India holds 84.5%(after divestment the stake by Indian government
on 19october2009) of its equity. With a current generating capacity of 34194 MW, NTPC has
embarked on plans to become a 75,000 MW company by 2017. It was founded on November 7,
1975.
NTPC's core business is engineering, construction and operation of power generating plants and
providing consultancy to power utilities in India and abroad.
The total installed capacity of the company is 34,194 MW (including JVs) with 15 coal based
and 7 gas based stations, located across the country. In addition under JVs, 5 stations are coal
based & another station uses naphtha/LNG as fuel. The company has set a target to have an
installed power generating capacity of 1,28,000 MW by the year 2032. The capacity will have a
diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% Gas, 11% Nuclear and 17% Renewable Energy
Sources(RES) including hydro. By 2032, non fossil fuel based generation capacity shall make up
nearly 28% of NTPC’s portfolio.




NTPC has been operating its plants at high efficiency levels. Although the company has 18.79%
of the total national capacity it contributes 28.60% of total power generation due to its focus on
high efficiency. NTPC’s share at 31 Mar 2001 of the total installed capacity of the country was
24.51% and it generated 29.68% of the power of the country in 2008–09. Every fourth home in
India is lit by NTPC. As at 31 Mar 2011 NTPC's share of the country's total installed capacity is


                                                6
17.75% and it generated 27.4% of the power generation of the country in 2010–11. NTPC is
lighting every third bulb in India. 170.88BU of electricity was produced by its stations in the
financial year 2005–2006. The Net Profit after Tax on March 31, 2006 was INR 58,202 million.
Net Profit after Tax for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 was INR 15528 million, which is
18.65% more than for the same quarter in the previous financial year. 2005).

In October 2004, NTPC launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) consisting of 5.25% as fresh
issue and 5.25% as offer for sale by Government of India. NTPC thus became a listed company
in November 2004 with the Government holding 89.5% of the equity share capital. In February
2010, the Shareholding of Government of India was reduced from 89.5% to 84.5% through
Further Public Offer. The rest is held by Institutional Investors and the Public.

Pursuant to a special resolution passed by the Shareholders at the Company’s Annual General
Meeting on September 23, 2005 and the approval of the Central Government under section 21 of
the Companies Act, 1956, the name of the Company "National Thermal Power Corporation
Limited" has been changed to "NTPC Limited" with effect from October 28, 2005. The primary
reason for this is the company's foray into hydro and nuclear based power generation along with
backward integration by coal mining.

(NTPC) is in the 138th position in Fortune 500 in 2009. 10 Indian companies make it to FT's top
500.

Vision

“To be the world’s largest and best power producer, powering India’s growth.”

Mission
“Develop and provide reliable power, related products and services at competitive prices,
integrating multiple energy sources with innovative and eco-friendly technologies and
contribute to society.”


Core Values – BCOMIT
      Business Ethics
      Customer Focus
      Organizational& Professional Pride
      Mutual Respect & Trust
      Innovation & Speed
      Total Quality for Excellence



                                              7
Diversified Growth
As per new corporate plan, NTPC plans to become a 75 GW company by the year 2017
and envisages to have an installed capacity of 128 GW by the year 2032 with a well-
diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% gas, 11% nuclear energy, 9% renewable
energy and 8% hydro power based capacity.
As such, by the year 2032, 28% of NTPC’s installed generating capacity will be based on
carbon free energy sources. Further, the coal based capacity will increasingly be based on
high-efficient-low-emission technologies such as Super-critical and Ultra-Super-critical.
Along with this growth, NTPC will utilize a strategic mix of options to ensure fuel security
for its fleet of power stations.
Looking at the opportunities coming its way, due to changes in the business environment,
NTPC made changes in its strategy and diversified in the business adjacencies along the
energy value chain. In its pursuit of diversification NTPC has developed strategic alliances
and joint ventures with leading national and international companies. NTPC has also made
long strides in developing its Ash Utilization business.

      Hydro Power: In order to give impetus to hydro power growth in the country and
       to have a balanced portfolio of power generation, NTPC entered hydro power
       business with the 800 MW Koldam hydro project in Himachal Pradesh. Two more
       projects have also been taken up in Uttarakhand. A wholly owned subsidiary,
       NTPC Hydro Ltd., is setting up hydro projects of capacities up to 250 MW.
      Renewable Energy: In order to broad base its fuel mix NTPC has plan of capacity
       addition of about 1,000 MW through renewable resources by 2017.
      Nuclear Power: A Joint Venture Company "AnushaktiVidhyut Nigam Ltd." has
       been formed (with 51% stake of NPCIL and 49% stake of NTPC) for development
       of nuclear power projects in the country.
      Coal Mining: In a major backward integration move to create fuel security, NTPC
       has ventured into coal mining business with an aim to meet about 20% of its coal
       requirement from its captive mines by 2017. The Government of India has so far
       allotted 7 coal blocks to NTPC, including 2 blocks to be developed through joint
       venture route.
      Power Trading: 'NTPC VidyutVyapar Nigam Ltd.' (NVVN), a wholly owned
       subsidiary was created for trading power leading to optimal utilization of NTPC’s
       assets. It is the second largest power trading company in the country. In order to
       facilitate power trading in the country, ‘National Power Exchange Ltd.’, a JV of
       NTPC, NHPC, PFC and TCS has been formed for operating a Power Exchange.
      Ash Business: NTPC has focused on the utilization of ash generated by its power
       stations to convert the challenge of ash disposal into an opportunity. Ash is being
       used as a raw material input by cement companies and brick manufacturers. NVVN
       is engaged in the business of Fly Ash export and sale to domestic customers. Joint
       ventures with cement companies are being planned to set up cement grinding units


                                                8
in the vicinity of NTPC stations.
             Power Distribution: ‘NTPC Electric Supply Company Ltd.’ (NESCL), a wholly
              owned subsidiary of NTPC, was set up for distribution of power. NESCL is
              actively engaged in ‘Rajiv Gandhi GraminVidyutikaranYojana’programme for
              rural electrification.
             Equipment Manufacturing: Enormous growth in power sector necessitates
              augmentation of power equipment manufacturing capacity. NTPC has formed JVs
              with BHEL and Bharat Forge Ltd. for power plant equipment manufacturing.
              NTPC has also acquired stake in Transformers and Electricals Kerala Ltd. (TELK)
              for manufacturing and repair of transformers.


   Future Capacity Additions
   NTPC has formulated a long term Corporate Plan upto 2032. In line with the Corporate Plan,
   the capacity addition under implementation stage is presented below:
                STATE                                                   MW
    PROJECT

     Coal
     1.          Indira Gandhi STPP- JV with IPGCL & HPGCL ( 3 x 500)    Haryana            1000
     2.          Sipat I (3 x 660)                                       Chhattisgarh       1980
     3.          Simhadri II Unit - IV( 500)                             Andhra Pradesh     500
     4.          Vallur I -JV with TNEB ( 2 x 500)                       Tamilnadu          1000
     5.          Vallur Stage-I Phase-II -JV with TNEB ( 1 x 500)        Tamilnadu          500
     6.          Bongaigaon(3 x 250)                                     Assam              750
     7.          Mauda ( 2 x 500)                                        Maharashta         1000
     8.          Rihand III(2X500)                                       Uttar Pradesh      1000
     9.          Vindhyachal-IV (2X500)                                  Madhya Pradesh     1000
     10.         Muzaffarpur Expansion (2x195) – JV with BSEB            Bihar              390
     11.         Nabinagar TPP-JV with Railways (4 x 250)                Bihar              1000
     12.         Barh II (2 X 660)                                       Bihar              1320
     13.         Barh I (3 X 660)                                        Bihar              1980
     Hydro
     1.          Koldam HEPP ( 4 x 200)                                  Himachal Pradesh   800
     2.          TapovanVishnugad HEPP (4 x 130)                         Uttarakhand        520
     3.          Singrauli CW Discharge(Small Hydre)                     Uttar Pradesh      8
     Total                                                                                  14748




   Subsidiaries
NTPC Electric Supply Company Ltd. (NESCL)
The company was formed on August 21, 2002. It is a wholly owned subsidiary company of
NTPC with the objective of making a foray into the business of distribution and supply of
electrical energy, as a sequel to reforms initiated in the power sector.

NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd. (NVVN)


                                                               9
The company was formed on November 1, 2002, as a wholly owned subsidiary company of
NTPC. The company’s objective is to undertake sale and purchase of electric power, to
effectively utilise installed capacity and thus enable reduction in the cost of power. NVVN

NTPC Hydro Ltd. (NHL)
The company was formed on December 12, 2002, as a wholly owned subsidiary company of
NTPC with an objective to develop small and medium hydroelectric power projects of up to
250 MW. More>>

Pipavav Power Development Co. Ltd. (PPDCL)
A memorandum of understanding was signed between NTPC, Gujarat Power Corporation
Limited (GPCL) and Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB) in 2004 for development of a 1000 MW
thermal power project at Pipavav in Gujarat by forming a new joint venture company between
NTPC and GPCL with 50:50 equity participation. Pursuant to the decision of Gujarat
Government, NTPC Ltd. has dissociated itself from this company. PPDCL is under winding
up.

Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam Limited, (formerly known as Vaishali Power Generating
Company Limited)
To take over Muzaffarpur Thermal Power Station (2*110MW), a subsidiary company named
‘Vaishali Power Generating Company Limited (VPGCL)’ was incorporated on September 6,
2006 with NTPC contributing 51% of equity and balance equity was contributed by Bihar State
Electricity Board. This company was formed to renovate the existing unit and run the plant.
The second unit has been successfully re-synchronized on October 17, 2007 after 4 years of
being idle. Renovation and modernization of the first unit is under progress. The company was
rechristened as ‘Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam Limited’ on April 10, 2008.
 Bharatiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited (BRBCL)
A subsidiary of NTPC under the name of ‘Bharatiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited’ was
incorporated on November 22, 2007 with 74:26 equity contribution from NTPC and Ministry
of Railways, Govt. of India respectively for setting up of four units of 250 MW each of coal
based power plant at Nabinagar, Bihar. Investment approval of the project was accorded in
January, 2008.




                                                  10
3 Project Objective-

To find out viable option for fuel supply to set new power plant on India. Study of power sector
in India and all available fuel supply option for electricity generation in India to find out scope
of natural gas as an alternate fuel for electricity generation. Electricity demand projection in
India at different growth rate scenarios. Natural gas supply option as domestic natural gas
reserve and natural gas import. Study of piped natural gas and LNG import. To find out viable
natural gas supply option while keeping in mind price, gas reserve, infrastructure requirement
and time period required to be operational. Natural gas as a fuel for distributed power
generation to reduce transmission losses and replacement of DG sets by natural gas based
turbines. Natural gas price mechanism in India and in different regional gas market and impact
of globalization of gas market. Scope of shale gas exploration and impact of it on India and
traditional natural gas producer.




                                                     11
4 Introduction-
 4.1 Electricity is prime mover of Indian economy:
 Electricity is the prime mover of growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. The
 projected growth of the Indian economy depends heavily on the performance and growth of the
 power sector. It is the endeavor of the Government to ensure that agriculture, industry,
 commercial establishments and all households receive uninterrupted supply of electricity at
 affordable rates. The electricity sector in India had an installed capacity of
 199.87 Gigawatt (GW) as of March 2012, the world's fifth largest. Captive power plants generate
 an additional 31.5 GW. Thermal power plants constitute 66% of the installed capacity,
 hydroelectric about 19% and rest being a combination of wind, small hydro, biomass, waste-to-
 electricity, and nuclear. India generated 855 BU electricity during 2011-12 fiscal year.

 In terms of fuel, coal-fired plants account for 57% of India's installed electricity capacity,
 compared to South Africa's 92%; China's 77%; and Australia's 76%. After coal,
 renewal hydropower accounts for 19%, and natural gas for about 9%.

 In December 2011, over 300 million Indian citizens had no access to electricity. Over one third
 of India's rural population lacked electricity, as did 6% of the urban population. Of those who did
 have access to electricity in India, the supply was intermittent and unreliable. In 2010, blackouts
 and power shedding interrupted irrigation and manufacturing across the country.

 The per capita average annual domestic electricity consumption in India in 2009 was 96 kWh in
 rural areas and 288 kWh in urban areas for those with access to electricity, in contrast to the
 worldwide per capita annual average of 2600 kWh and 6200 kWh in the European Union. India's
 total domestic, agricultural and industrial per capita energy consumption estimate vary
 depending on the source. Two sources place it between 400 to 700kWh in 2008–2009. As of
 January 2012, one report found the per capita total consumption in India to be 778 kWh.

 India currently suffers from a major shortage of electricity generation capacity, even though it is
 the world's fourth largest energy consumer after United States, China and Russia.The
 International Energy Agency estimates India needs an investment of at least $135 billion to
 provide universal access of electricity to its population.

 The International Energy Agency estimates India will add between 600 GW to 1200 GW of
 additional new power generation capacity before 2050.This added new capacity is equivalent to
 the 740 GW of total power generation capacity of European Union (EU-27) in 2005. The
 technologies and fuel sources India adopts, as it adds this electricity generation capacity, may
 make significant impact to global resource usage and environmental issues.



                                                 12
India's electricity sector is amongst the world's most active players in renewable energy
utilization, especially wind energy. As of December 2011, India had an installed capacity of
about 22.4 GW of renewal technologies-based electricity, exceeding the total installed electricity
capacity in Austria by all technologies.

India's network losses exceeded 32% in 2010 including non-technical losses, compared to world
average of less than 15%. Both technical and non-technical factors contribute to these losses, but
quantifying their proportions is difficult. Some experts estimate that technical losses are about
15% to 20%, A high proportion of non‐technical losses are caused by illegal tapping of lines, but
faulty electric meters that underestimate actual consumption also contribute to reduced payment
collection. A case study in Kerala estimated that replacing faulty meters could reduce
distribution losses from 34% to 29%.

Key implementation challenges for India's electricity sector include new project management
and execution, ensuring availability of fuel quantities and qualities, lack of initiative to develop
large coal and natural gas resources present in India, land acquisition, environmental clearances
at state and central government level, and training of skilled manpower to prevent talent
shortages for operating latest technology plants.

For the past two decades, India has had to face increasing deficit in power supply, both for
meeting its normal energy requirements as well as its peak load demand. The problem is acute
during peak hours and summers, and necessitates planned load shedding by many utilities to
maintain the grid in a healthy state. The average all-India shortages in 2009-10 were at 10 per
cent in terms of normal energy requirement and about 13 per cent in terms of peak load.

With the shortage at both the normal and the peak levels, Indian power industry does not exhibit
much cyclicality. Further, with assured returns, the margins of players and their profitability is
almost independent of the economic cycles. Electricity is the most important component of
primary energy. India’s electricity consumption has grown at an average rate of 7.3 per cent
during the period 2002-07 to about 577.9 TWh. Consumption has increased at a faster rate since
2002-03, reflecting buoyant industrial demand. Industrial consumers are the largest group of
electricity consumers, followed by the domestic, agricultural and commercial consumers, in that
order. India’s per capita electricity consumption increased from 178 kWh in 1985-86 to 704.4
kWh in 2007-08. Over the period, 2001-08, per capita consumption has increased at an average
rate of 4.45 per cent. It is still much lower compared to the international standards.




                                                13
4.2 Electricity demand in India-

Electricity demand at peak load and at normal load is mentioned below in table. In past ten years
normal energy shortfall is regularly increasing, in 2003-04 it was 7.1 % and in 2008-09 it was
11.1% of demand. Peak load energy shortage is also high. Indian economy is one of fastest
growing economy of world. As economy is growing energy demand is also growing to meet
industrial demand.


                                     Table- Electricity Demand and Supply
   FY                              Energy                             Peak Demand

                                   (MU)                                              (MW)

             Demand    Availability Shortage    %            Demand         Met        Shortage   %

2002-03 545,983        497,890         48,093   8.8          81,492         71,547     9,945      12.2

2003-04 559,264        519,398         39,866   7.1          84,574         75,066     9,508      11.2

2004-05 591,373        548,115         43,258   7.3          87,906         77,652     10,254     11.7

2005-06 631,024        578,511         52,513   8.3          93,214         81,792     11,422     12.3

2006-07 693,057        624,716         68,341   9.9          100,715        86,818     13,897     13.8

2007-08 737,052        664,660         72,392   9.8          108,866        90,793     18,073     16.6

2008-09 777,039        691,038         86,001   11.1         109,809        96,785     13,024     11.9

2009-10 830,594        746,644         83,950   10.1         118,472        102,725    15,747     13.3

2010-11 861,591        811,100         50,491   5.9          152746         137013.2 15732.84 10.3




Table- Electricity demand projection at different growth rate-
                                                                                                  Installed Capacity
              Energy Requirement                               Peak Demand
                                                                                                       Required
                 (Billion kWh)                                       (GW)                                 (GW)
   GDP
               6.00%      8.00%        9.00%    6.00%        8.00%          9.00%      6.00%      8.00%          9.00%
 growth at
 2011-12       1097        1,097       1,097     158          158            158        199        199            199
 2016-17       1407        1,524       1,586     203          220            228        255        276            288
 2021-22       1804        2,118       2,293     260          305            330        327        384            416
 2026-27       2267        2,866       3,219     327          413            464        411        520            584
 2031-32       2850        3,880       4,518     411          560            651        517        704            820

                                                        14
Electricity demand projection as mentioned in above table was done on basis falling elasticity of
electricity, data source- report of planning commission of India.

Table- Elasticity used for projection-

Year                            Electricity

                                (falling Elasticity)
2011-12 to 2021-22              0.85
2021-22 to 2031-32              0.78




4.3 Dependence of Electricity demand on GDP growth rate-
Electricity is prime mover of growth rate. As industrialization grows power demand also grows
to maintain higher production rate. By analyzing past 20 years data, shows that growth in
electricity demand is varies as per GDP growth rate and we got following relationship between
electricity demand and growth rate-

Y = 29167X + 227827

 Where Y= Electricity Demand

         X= GDP growth rate

Also electricity demand projection was done for GDP growth rate of 6%, 8% and 9% for next
20 years at falling elasticity of electricity.




                                                   15
Chart-As per data in Annexure -2

     1000000                                                                                     12
                Electricity Demand and GDP Growth Rate
     900000
                                                                                                 10
     800000
 E                                                                                                   %
     700000
 l                                                                                               8
 e   600000                                                                                        G
 c                                                                                                 D
     500000                                                                                      6
 t                                                                                                 P
 r   400000
 i                                                                                               4 G
     300000
 c                                                                                                 r
 i   200000                                                                                        o
                                                                                                 2
 t                                                                                                 w
     100000
 y                                                                                                 t
            0                                                                                    0 h
M
U
                       Year
                                           Electricity Demand(Mus)          GDP Growth Rate(%)




                              Electricity Demand and GDP
          1000000
 E    D    900000
 l    e    800000
 c    m    700000
 t    a    600000
 r    n    500000
 i    d    400000
 c
           300000
 i
     (




      M    200000
 t
      U    100000
 y
     )




                0
                    5.5 4.8 6.7 7.6 7.6 4.1 6.2 7.4 4 5.2 3.8 8.4 8.3 9.3 9.3 9.8 7.6 9.1 8.8 6.9
                    GDP growth rate
                                                                                    y = 29167x + 227827
                                                                                         R² = 0.9736

                     Electricity Demand and GDP          Linear (Electricity Demand and GDP)




                                                    16
4.4 Major available resources for electricity generation-


                                    Major power
                                     resources
                                       option


                               Nuclear
Hydro Energy    Coal                          Wind Energy   Solar Energy   Natural gas
                               Energy


               Domestic coal                                                 Domestic gas


                                                                             Piped Natural
               Imported coal
                                                                                  gas


               Blended Coal                                                       LNG



                  Legnite




                                         17
Sector wise power generation in 2012 in India
                                                     Oil     Neclear
                                                     1%        2%
                                          gas              RES
                                          9%               12%

                                                                       hydro
                                                                        19%

                    coal
                    57%




The 17th electric power survey of India report claims-

        Over 2010–11, India's industrial demand accounted for 35% of electrical power
         requirement, domestic household use accounted for 28%, agriculture 21%,
         commercial 9%, public lighting and other miscellaneous applications accounted for
         the rest.
        The electrical energy demand for 2016–17 is expected to be at least 1392 Tera Watt
         Hours, with a peak electric demand of 218 GW.
        The electrical energy demand for 2021–22 is expected to be at least 1915 Tera Watt
         Hours, with a peak electric demand of 298 GW.




                                                18
5 Coal as a fuel for electricity generation-
5.1 Predominant Position of Coal-
      -In terms of fuel, coal-fired plants account for 57% of India's installed electricity
       capacity, compared to South Africa's 92%; China's 77%; and Australia's 76%. After coal,
       renewal hydropower accounts for 19%, and natural gas for about 9%.
      -A cumulative total of 285862.21 Million Tonnes of Geological Resources of Coal have
       so far been estimated in India as on 1.4.2011.
      -Coal is likely to remain our mainstay of fuel for power generation till 2030-31.
       However, current shortage is cause of concern.


5.2 Inventory of geological resources of coal in India-
As a result of exploration carried out up to the maximum depth of 1200m by the GSI, CMPDI,
SCCL and MECL etc, a cumulative total of 285862.21 Million Tonnes of Geological Resources
of Coal have so far been estimated in the country as on 1.4.2011. The details of state-wise
geological resources of coal are given as under:

GONDWANA COAL FIELDS: - Annexure -2

TERTIARY COAL FIELDS-           Annexure- 3

Categorization of coal resources-
 The coal resources of India are available in older Gondwana Formations of peninsular India and
younger Tertiary formations of north-eastern region. Based on the results of Regional/
Promotional Exploration, where the boreholes are normally placed 1-2 Km apart, the resources
are classified into ‘Indicated’ or ‘Inferred’ category. Subsequent Detailed Exploration in selected
blocks, where boreholes are less than 400 meter apart, upgrades the resources into more reliable
‘Proved’ category. The Formation-wise and Category-wise coal resources of India as on
1.4.2010 are given in table below:

                                                                            (in Million Tonnes)

                                        Proved          Indicated       Inferred        Total
       Formation
       Gondwana Coals                     113407.79       137371.76      33590.02       284369.57
       Tertiary Coals                        593.81           99.34        799.49         1492.64
                 Total                    114001.60       137471.10      34389.51       285862.21


* Includes 749.92 M.T. of Inferred resources established through mapping in North-
Eastern region.

                                                 19
5.3 Type and category-wise coal resources of India-

 The Type and Category-wise coal resources of India as on 1.4.2011 are given in
table below:-
                                                           (in Million Tonnes)

                                               Proved        Indicated       Inferred            Total
             Type of Coal
             (A) Coking :-
                -Prime Coking                 4614.35           698.71              0         5313.06
                -Medium Coking               12572.52         12001.32        1880.23        26454.07
                -Semi-Coking                   482.16          1003.29         221.68         1707.13
                Sub-Total Coking             17669.03         13703.32        2101.91        33474.26
             (B) Non-Coking:-                95738.76         12368.44       31488.11       250895.31
             (C) Tertiary Coal                 593.81            99.34        799.49*         1492.64
                   Grand Total              114001.60        137471.10       34389.51       285862.21

* Includes 749.92 M.T. of Inferred resources established through mapping in North-
Eastern region.

Status of Coal Resources in India during Last Five Years:
      As a result of Regional, Promotional and Detailed Exploration by GSI, CMPDI and SCCL etc, the
estimation of coal resources of India has reached to 267.21 Bt. The estimates of coal resources in the
country during last 5 years are given below:



(in Million tonnes)

                                      Geological Resources of Coal
As on
                         Proved         Indicated        Inferred           Total
1.1.2006                  95866          119769            37666            253301
1.4.2007                  99060          120177            38144            257381
1.4.2008                 101829          124216            38490            264535
1.4.2009                 105820          123470            37920            267210
1.4.2010                 109798          130654            36358            276810




                                                  20
5.4 Consumption pattern of coal-
      By analyzing past 30 years data, shows that coal consumption is increasing year by yearas
      power demand increasing in India. Due to limited coal reserves, if coal consumption keep
      growing at same rate as per past trend, all economic coal reserve will be extracted within 30
      years.we got following relationship for coal consumption pattern in India.

       Y = 18035X + 41974

        Where Y= Coal consumption

              X= Year

    Annexure- 4

  900000                                                                                       0.2
C                                                                       y = 18035x + 41974
  800000
o                                                                           R² = 0.9425
a 700000                                                                                       0.15
l
  600000
                                                                                               0.1
T   500000
o   400000
n                                                                                              0.05
n   300000
e   200000                                                                                     0
s
    100000

         0                                                                                     -0.05
             1990



             1995
             1980
             1981
             1982
             1983
             1984
             1985
             1986
             1987
             1988
             1989
             1991
             1992
             1993
             1994
             1996
             1997
             1998
             1999
             2000
             2001
             2002
             2003
             2004
             2005
             2006
             2007
             2008
             2009
             2010




                                                                                 Consumption
                                                 Year
                                                                                 % Change




    5.5 Factors Affecting Coal Prices in India-

                                                 21
Significant demand from China and India is increasingly accounting for the bulk of worldwide
coal usage. Hence, coal demand and consequently coal prices will depend on the strength of the
economic recovery in the emerging markets, particularly China and India as mentioned. As
several of coal commodity currencies (Aussie Dollar, SA Rand and the Columbian Peso) have
floating exchange rates, any appreciation in the value of these currencies consequently increases
the prices for holders of non-commodity currencies.




                                          Coal price




     Coal                                    Coal to
                               Domestic                   Cost of    Crude oil
   Demand          Coal                      sold at                               Exchange
                                 coal                      Land       prices
     and          Import                     market                                   rate
                                pricing
  Production                                  price




                                               22
5.5.1 Domestic coal production and demand:
Domestic coal production is not meeting demand. Currently around 37,000 MW capacities of
power plants running idle due to shortage of fuel supply. Coal India is also not meeting coal
production target. Due to coal supply shortage prices are going up. Due to industrialization,
power demand is growing. It is estimated that at the end of terminal year of 11th Five Year
Plan (2011-12), the coal demand would be about 713 Million Tonnes, whereas the indigenous
availabilitywould be about 630 Million Tonnes. Therefore, there is likely to be a gap of 83
Million Tonnes, which is required to be met through imports. The details are given below:-

                                                                        (Fig. in million tonnes)

                                                                                       XI Plan
        Source          2008-09      2009-10        2010-11        2010-11
                                                                                        Proj.
       Actual            Actual        BE             RE            2011-12
                                        4              4              4                4              4
 CIL
                    01.44         15.88           60.5          33.5                86.5
                                        4              4              4                5              4
 SCCL
                    4.54          9.37            7.05          0.5                 7
                                        4              4              6                5              9
 Others
                    4.03          9.25            5.87          2.05                6.41
 Total
                                          4            5                5              5              6
 indigenous
                    90.01         14.5            73.42         36.05               29.91
 supply
                                          5            5                6              6              7
 Demand
                    50            97.98           56.31         24.78               13.24
 Gap to be met                            5            8                8              8              8
 through imports    9.98          3.48            2.89          8.73                3.33
 Total Import                             5            7                8              8              8
 (a+b)              9             3.25            2.89          8.73                3.33


5.5.2 Coal Import-
  As per the present Import Policy, coal can be freely imported (under Open General License) by
  the consumers themselves, considering their needs and exercising their own commercial
  prudence. Due to higher international coal prices and regularly depreciating rupees value, import
  of coal is not economical option for power generation. Coking coal is being imported by Steel
  Authority of India Limited (SAIL) and other Steel sector manufacturing unites mainly to
  bridge the gap between the requirement and indigenous availability and to improve the
  quality. Coal based power plants, cement plants, captive power plants, sponge iron plants,
  industrial consumers and coal traders import non- coking coal. Coke is imported mainly by
  Pig-Iron manufacturers and Iron &Steel Sector consumers using mini-blast furnace. Details
  of import of coal and products during the last five years are as under:

                                               23
Table:-Coal import (Fig. in million tonnes)

                        2005-06    2006-07      2007-08     2008-09    2009-10   2010-11
  Coking Coal              16.89       17.88        22.03      21.08     23.46        27.6
  Non Coking coal           21.7        25.2        27.76      37.92     44.28       52.02
  Coke                      2.62        4.69         4.25       1.88       2.2        4.63
  Total Import             41.21       47.77        54.04      60.88     69.94       84.05


5.5.3 Domestic Coal Price Fixation-

 Government of India deregulated the prices of Non-Coking Coal of grades A,B&C,
 Coking coal and Semi/Weakly coking coal on 22.03.1996. Subsequently, on12.03.1997,
 Government of India deregulated the prices of non-coking coal of grade D, Hard Coke
 and Soft Coke and also allowed Coal India Ltd to fix coal prices for grades E,F&G till
 Jan'2000 on every six months by updating cost indices as per escalation formula
 contained in the 1987 report of the Bureau of Industrial Cost & Prices. With effect from
 01.01.2000, CIL was free to fix the prices of all grades of coal in relation to the market
 prices.

 Pursuant of the above, CIL fixed the prices of coal from time to time and last such revision
 has been made on26.02.2011, to be effective w.e.f 00 hrs of 27-02-11.

 Grade wise Basic Price of coal at the Pit-head prices of all varieties of Run of
 Mine Coal have been given in Table I to V applicable to the Power Utilities
 (including IPPs), Fertilizers and Defense and in Table VI to X applicable to
 consumers other than the Power Utilities, (including IPPs), Fertilizers and
 Defense excluding statutory levies for Run-of-mine (ROM) Non-Long-
 Flame Coal ,Long flame Coal, Coking Coal, Semi Coking Coal & Weakly
 Coking Coal, direct feed Coal, Assam Coal for various subsidiaries of CIL as
 shown below:

 COMPANYWISEGRADEWISECOALPRICESOFCILFORPOWER
 UTILITIES (INCLUDINGIPPs), FERTILIZERSANDDEFENCE

      Basic Price of Run of Mine Non-Long-Flame Non-Coking Coal- Annexure- 5

      Basic Price of Run of Mine of Other Non-Coking Coal-                 Annexure- 6
      Basic Price of Run of Mine Long-Flame Non-Coking Coal-               Annexure- 7
      Coking Coal (Run of Mine)                                            Annexure- 8
      Semi Coking & Weakly Coking Coal (Run Of Mine)                       Annexure- 9
      Direct feed Coking Coal (Run of Mine)                                Annexure- 10
      Assam Coal (Run of Mine)                                             Annexure- 11



                                               24
5.5.4 Quantity of Coal to be sold at market price:-

 Coal distribution through e-auction was re-introduced in the new coal distribution
 policy in 2007 mainly to provide access to companies that do not have regular sources
 of supply. Most of the through e-auction is transported through roads. Only 10% of
 total coal production of Coal India Ltd is being sold by e-auctioning and prices for
 remaining are being administered by Government of India. Coal India is being asked
 to sign fuel supply agreement with power sector companies and not increase supplies
 to other sectors. Present spot market prices are at least 60% higher than notified prices
 of coal. Coal prices in domestic spot market have risen by 50% over past three years.
 As mentioned below in table Coal India may cut e-auctioning 10 to 7% by 2016-17.
 Diversion of coal from e-auction is expected to enable CIL to offer 47 MT more coal
 to power sector.

 Table- Coal e-auction plan for Coal India Ltd. up to 2016-17
   Year               2012-13        2013-14        2014-15   2015-16   2016-17
   Production(MT)     464            486            508       530       556
   e-auction%         10             10             9         8         7
   Amount(MT)         46             49             46        42        39


5.5.5 Impact of crude oil price on Thermal coal prices:-

  The coal demand revived upon the energy price surges during the two oil crises. The
  primary factor having spurred the revival was that coal was priced much cheaper than
  the- then skyrocketing oil and gas prices. Then such demerits as handling difficulties and
  environmental load, if taken into account, can undermine utility of coal unless it should
  be priced cheap, the greatest merit. In short, the oil price sets the ceiling of coal prices.
  Particularly up to first half of the 2008, coal has demonstrated price advantages over
  crude oil. After that at the time of uncertainty during global recession, crude oil prices
  fall abruptly while not in case of coal. Again in 2009 prices of both coal and crude oil
  started rising, and from January, 2011 coal again demonstrated advantages over crude
  oil.
  As it is clearly shown in graph coal prices are directly related to crude oil prices, varies
  according to crude prices change. Namely price ratio of steaming coal to crude oil has
  been as small as staying within the 0.38 – 0.45 range. For these reasons, the ceiling on of
  coal prices can be put at around 75% of the crude oil price equivalent heat value.




                                               25
140
                                 Relationship Between Crude oil and coal prices                                                                                                                             250

         120
  U                                                                                                                                                                                                         200
  S
         100                                                                                                                                                                                                    U
  $
  /                                                                                                                                                                                                             S
                                                                                                                                                                                                            150
  b       80                                                                                                                                                                                                    $
  a                                                                                                                                                                                                             /
  r       60                                                                                                                                                                                                    t
                                                                                                                                                                                                            100
  r                                                                                                                                                                                                             o
  e       40                                                                                                                                                                                                    n
  l                                                                                                                                                                                                         50
          20

           0                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                 Oct-07
                                          Jan-08




                                                                     Oct-08
                                                                              Jan-09




                                                                                                         Oct-09
                                                                                                                  Jan-10




                                                                                                                                             Oct-10
                                                                                                                                                      Jan-11




                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-11
                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-12
               Apr-07




                                                   Apr-08




                                                                                       Apr-09




                                                                                                                           Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                               Apr-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Apr-12
                        Jul-07




                                                            Jul-08




                                                                                                Jul-09




                                                                                                                                    Jul-10




                                                                                                                                                                        Jul-11
Table- Crude oil prices and coal prices per month                                                                                                                  Crude oil Price per barrel

                                                                                                                                                                   Coal price per metric ton


Annexure- 12
5.5.6 Impact of Exchange rate on coal prices:-

A sharp decline in the value of the rupee is bound to affect the power generation capability
of power plants that are heavily dependent upon imported coal for electricity generation.
This would mean an increase in the level of energy deficit in the country. Moreover, a fall
witnessed in power generation capacity is likely to have an adverse effect on all the three
sectors of the economy namely agriculture, industry and services.
Another dimension to the rupee depreciation episode is that not only has the expenditure on
imports increased but this coupled with an inflexible tariff structure means that the power
companies are going to suffer huge losses.
The global prices of thermal coal in November 2011 were lower than that in May 2011.
Yet, the depreciation of rupee has meant that the importer has to pay an additional Rs.
684.6 per tonne to import the same quantity of coal.
Please refer to table below:

Table: Impact of Rupee Depreciation on Thermal Coal Price-

 Month                                             Price $                                                 Exchange rate                                           Price Rs

 May                                               127.6                                                   45.05                                                   5739.5
 November                                          121.9                                                   52.7                                                    6424.1

 Difference                                        -5.7                                                    7.7                                                     684.6



Annexure- 13

                                                                                                26
9000                                                                                                                                                                                      250
       8000
       7000                                                                                                                                                                                      200
   R
       6000
   u                                                                                                                                                                                             150 U
   p   5000                                                                                                                                                                                          S
   e   4000
                                                                                                                                                                                                 100
   e                                                                                                                                                                                                   $
       3000
   s
       2000                                                                                                                                                                                      50
       1000
          0                                                                                                                                                                                      0
                      7-Jul



                                              8-Apr
                                                      8-Jul



                                                                              9-Apr
                                                                                      9-Jul



                                                                                                                10-Apr




                                                                                                                                                    11-Apr




                                                                                                                                                                                        12-Apr
              0.00




                                                                                                                         10-Jul




                                                                                                                                                             11-Jul
                              7-Oct




                                                              8-Oct




                                                                                               9-Oct




                                                                                                                                  10-Oct




                                                                                                                                                                      11-Oct
                                      8-Jan




                                                                      9-Jan




                                                                                                       10-Jan




                                                                                                                                           11-Jan




                                                                                                                                                                               12-Jan
                     coal price in RS per MT                                          coal price in US& per MT                                                   Exchange rate




5.5.7 Impact of availability of land on coal prices-

Due to soaring up of land prices and compensation to land owner as per new land
acquisition policy hues amount of money is paid for coal mining lease and that cost further
increasing coal prices. New land pricing policy detail is given bellow-

Land Acquisition Policy in India:-
The Indian Ministry of Rural Development introduces its new draft Land Acquisition and
Rehabilitation & Resettlement Bill which is a policy framework to balance
between land acquisitions for industrialization with the concerns of those who depend on
that land for livelihood.

The new draft Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation & Resettlement Bill of 2011 which will
go through a cabinet vote very soon, has been designed to address the concern of balancing
the need for land to support rapid industrialization on one hand, and the needs of the people
who depend on it for their livelihood.

India is the third largest economy in the world today, but it faces an urgent need for growth
through industrialization, especially through manufacturing. This puts the nation in need
for land for a number of purposes from fuelling the inevitable process of urbanization and
greater industrialization, to a variety of 'public purposes'.

The nation has had a land acquisition act since 1894 which as over the time, seen quite a
few amendments. But the recent heightening of public concern over land acquisition issues
and the absence of a comprehensive law covering the issues of resettlement, rehabilitation
and compensation of livelihoods, has highlighted the need for a wholesome law.

The bill states the legitimate reasons for land acquisition as the above mentioned ones and
additionally defines the purview of the term ‘public purposes’ as the following:
                                                                                              27
1. Strategic purposes: e.g., armed forces, national security;

2. Infrastructure and Industry: where benefits largely accrue to the general public

3. Land acquired for R&R purposes

4. Village or urban sites: planned development -residential purpose for the poor and
educational and health schemes

5. Land for private companies for public purpose;

6. needs arising from natural calamities.

Rehabilitation and Resettlement

It has been observed in the past that the rehabilitation and resettlement aspect is frequently
neglected once the acquisition is over, leading to widespread resentment and rebellion from
the ‘affected families’, who are basically those people who either lose the and that they
own, or livelihood that they had derived from the acquired land. The current draft
necessitates the application of its rehabilitation and resettlement requirements if
the land acquired by private companies exceeds 100 acres.

The new bill states that the Government can either acquire land for its own use or for the
use of private companies for stated public purpose. But the draft makes it clear that
no acquisition can take place until 80% of the project affected families give their consent to
the acquisition. Also, the government can make no acquisition of multi-cropped or irrigated
lands or even land for the private purposes of private companies.

The rehabilitation and resettlement requirements which are a major highlight of this
draft included a number of minimum entitlements making a special provision of scheduled
castes and scheduled tribes.

Compensation and benefits

As per the compensation package, the award amount paid for the land acquired in case of
urban areas should be not less than double the market value determined, and not less than
six times in case of rural areas.

For landowners the entitlements include a subsistence allowance of Rs. 3000 per month per
family for 12 months along with Rs. 2000 per family as annuity for 20 years, with the use
of appropriate indexes for inflation. The loss of a house has to be compensated with the
building of a new one adhering to some minimum size requirements. Entitlements for
transportation and employment provisions also need to be guaranteed. An unemployment
benefit has to be paid if not even a single member of the family is given employment
opportunities. For those who lose their livelihood, the bill states similar entitlements.




                                              28
6 Renewable resources in India:-

Status of renewable energy resources in India-
                              New & Renewable Energy
Cumulative deployment of various Renewable Energy Systems/ Devices in the country as on
                                     30/04/2012
 Renewable Energy Program/          Target for        Achievement           Total    Cumulative
          Systems                    2012-13            during          achievement achievement u
                                                       April,2012       during 2012- p to 30.04.2012
                                                                             13
I. POWER FROM RENEWABLES:
                  A. GRID-INTERACTIVE POWER                 (CAPACITIES IN MW)
Wind Power                         2500          36.65              36.65             17389.31
Small Hydro Power                  350           5.75               5.75              3401.06
Biomass Power                      455           16.00              16.00             1166.10
Bagasse Cogeneration                             7.50               7.50              1992.73
Waste to Power            -Urban                 -                  -                 89.68
                                   20
-Industrial                                      -                  -                 -
Solar Power (SPV)                  800           37.72              37.72             979.00
Total                              4125.00       103.62             103.62            25017.88
              B.    OFF-GRID/ CAPTIVE POWER                 (CAPACITIES IN MWEQ)
Waste to Energy              -     20.00         1.20               1.20              102.95
Urban
-Industrial
Biomass(non-bagasse)               60.00         2.50               2.50              385.00
Cogeneration
Biomass Gasifiers            -     1.50          -                  -                 16.12
Rural- Industrial                  10.00         -                  -                 134.09
Aero-Genrators/Hybrid              0.50          -                  -                 1.64
systems
SPV Systems (>1kW)                 30.00         -                  -                 85.21
Water mills/micro hydel            2.00(500      -.                 -                 1877 Nos.
                                   Nos.)
Total                              126.00        3.70               3.70              725.01
II. REMOTE VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION
 No. of Remote Village/Hamlets -                 -                  -                 -
   provided with RE Systems
III. OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
 Family Biogas Plants (No. in      1.25          -                  -                 45.09
                                                 29
lakhs)
  Solar Water Heating - Coll.     0.60         -             -                5.46
      Areas (Million m2)



Solar Energy in India:-

Solar water heaters have proved the most popular so far and solar photovoltaic for
decentralized power supply is fast becoming popular in rural and remote areas. More than
700000 PV systems generating 44 MW have been installed all over India. Under the water
pumping program more than 3000 systems have been installed so far and the market for
solar lighting and solar pumping is far from saturated. Solar drying is one area which offers
very good prospects in food, agricultural and chemical products drying applications.

The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) has set ambitious targets for
power generation from solar energy in India. The Mission aims to have about 10 GW of
grid-connected solar power plants by 2022. The mission is divided into 3 phases and the
targets for grid-connected solar PV plants for each phase are-



                          Phase 1        2010-2013        500 MW

                          Phase 2        2013-2017      1,500 MW

                          Phase 3        2017-2022      7,000 MW

                          Total                        10,000MW

In addition to the JNNSM, several state governments have separate solar policies
(Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka) and many other state governments (Tamil Nadu,
Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh etc) are drafting solar policies on their own. Apart from this,
the Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) is expected to drive the growth of the solar PV
power generation sector.

India is densely populated and has high solar insulation, an ideal combination for
using solar power in India. Much of the country does not have an electrical grid grid, so
one of the first applications of solar power has been for water pumping; to begin replacing
India's four to five million diesel powered water pumps, each consuming about
3.5 kilowatts, and off-grid lighting. Some large projects have been proposed, and a
35,000 km² area of the Thar desert has been set aside for solar power projects, sufficient to
generate 700 to 2,10 Gigawatts.
The Indian Solar Loan Program, supported by the United Nations Environment
Program has won the prestigious Energy Globe World award for Sustainability for helping
to establish a consumer financing program for solar home power systems. Over the span of
three years more than 16,000 solar home systems have been financed through 2,000 bank
                                              30
branches, particularly in rural areas of South India where the electricity grid does not yet
extend.
Launched in 2003, the Indian Solar Loan Programme was a four-year partnership between
UNEP, the UNEP Risoe Centre, and two of India's largest banks, the Canara Bank and
Syndicate Bank.
Announced in November 2009, the Government of India proposed to launch its Jawaharlal
Nehru National Solar Mission under the National Action Plan on Climate Change with
plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based solar
power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq. meters with collectors
by the end of the final phase of the mission in 2020.
Also, TERI's Lighting a Billion Lives Campaign started in 2008 aims to replace kerosene
and paraffin lamps with CFLs to provide off-the-grid lighting to villages and thus ease the
load on the power grid while at the same time provide the people with safe, non-polluting
light at night. So far, it has provided 35,000 CFLs to 640 villages in 16 states in India and
also about 500 CFLs in Myanmar. This campaign has reportedly benefited 175,000 people.
India's largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants- Annexure -2




Wind Energy:-

In progress are wind resource assessment programme, wind monitoring, wind mapping,
covering 800 stations in 24 states with 193 wind monitoring stations in operations.
Altogether 13 states of India have a net potential of about 45000 MW.

The development of wind power in India began in the 1990s, and has significantly
increased in the last few years. Although a relative newcomer to the wind industry
compared with Denmark or the United States, India has the fifth largest installed wind
power capacity in the world. In 2009-10 India's growth rate was highest among the other
top four countries.
As of 31 March 2011 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 16078 MW, mainly
spread across Tamil Nadu (6007 MW), Maharashtra (2310.70 MW), Gujarat (2175.60
MW), Karnataka(1730.10 MW), Rajasthan (1524.70 MW), Madhya Pradesh (275.50
MW), Andhra Pradesh (200.20 MW), Kerala (32.8 MW), Orissa (2MW), West Bengal (1.1
MW) and other states (3.20 MW). It is estimated that 6,000 MW of additional wind power
capacity will be installed in India by 2012. Wind power accounts for 6% of India's total
installed power capacity, and it generates 1.6% of the country's power. India's wind atlas is
available.
The worldwide installed capacity of wind power reached 197 GW by the end of 2010.
China (44,733 MW), US (40,180 MW), Germany (27,215 MW) and Spain (20,676 MW)
are ahead of India in fifth position. The short gestation periods for installing wind turbines,
and the increasing reliability and performance of wind energy machines has made wind
power a favored choice for capacity addition in India.


                                              31
Suzlon, an Indian-owned company, emerged on the global scene in the past decade, and by
2006 had captured almost 7.7 percent of market share in global wind turbine sales. Suzlon
is currently the leading manufacturer of wind turbines for the Indian market, holding some
52 percent of market share in India. Suzlon’s success has made India the developing
country leader in advanced wind turbine technology.


Wind Power projects in India-


  Power Plant                   Producer             Location         State           Total
                                                                                   Capacity
Vankusawade Wind      Suzlon Energy Ltd.            Satara Dist.   Maharashtra   259 (MWe)
Park
Cape Comorin          AbanLoyd Chiles Offshore Kanyakumari         Tamil Nadu    33
                      Ltd.
KayatharSubhash       Subhash Ltd.                  Kayathar       Tamil Nadu    30

Ramakkalmedu          Subhash Ltd.                  Ramakkalmedu Kerala          25

Muppandal Wind        Muppandal Wind Farm           Muppandal      Tamil Nadu    22

Gudimangalam          Gudimangalam Wind Farm Gudimangalam Tamil Nadu             21

Puthlur RCI           Wescare (India) Ltd.          Puthlur        Andhra        20
                                                                   Pradesh
LamdaDanida           Danida India Ltd.             Lamda          Gujarat       15

Chennai Mohan         Mohan Breweries &             Chennai        Tamil Nadu    15
                      Distilleries Ltd.
Jamgudrani MP         MP Windfarms Ltd.             Dewas          Madhya        14
                                                                   Pradesh
Jogmatti BSES         BSES Ltd.                     ChitradurgaDist Karnataka    14

PerungudiNewam        Newam Power Company           Perungudi      Tamil Nadu    12
                      Ltd.
Kethanur Wind Farm Kethanur Wind Farm               Kethanur       Tamil Nadu    11

Hyderabad APSRTC Andhra Pradesh State Road Hyderabad               Andhra        10
                 Transport Corp.                                   Pradesh
Muppandal Madras      Madras Cements Ltd.           Muppandal      Tamil Nadu    10

PoolavadiChettinad    Chettinad Cement Corp.        Poolavadi      Tamil Nadu    10
                      Ltd.
Shalivahana Wind      Shalivahana Green Energy. Tirupur            Tamil Nadu    20.4
                      Ltd.



                                               32
Tidal Energy-
   •   Tides generated by the combination of the moon and sun’s gravitational forces
   •   Greatest affect in spring when moon and sun combine forces
   •   Bays and inlets amplify the height of the tide
   •   In order to be practical for energy production, the height difference needs to be at
       least 5 meters
   •   Only 40 sites around the world of this magnitude
   •   Overall potential of 3000 gigawatts from movement of tides

India set to get Asia’s first power plant-

With the proposed commissioning of a 50-Mw tidal power project off the coast of Gujarat
in 2013, India is ready to place its first “seamark” that will be a first for Asia as well.

London-based marine energy developer Atlantis Resources Corporation, along with
Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with
the Gujarat government to start this project.

The cost for the plant is expected to be in the vicinity of Rs 750 crore. This plant is also is
expected to be scaled up to 250 Mw.

Timothy Cornelius, CEO, Atlantis Resources Corporation, said with just about 2 giga watt
of tidal power installations in the world today, this is a completely new and uncharted
power sources with immense potential. “Tidal power today is what wind energy was 10
years back,” he said.

Due to the high investment in setting up the project, a typical tidal power project is
expected to break even between 8 and 12 years after commissioning. Despite the long
gestation period to make it commercially viable, tidal power has unparalleled
environmental advantages.

“Tidal current power uses turbines to harness the energy contained in the flow of ocean
tides. It is unique as like tidal movements, power output is highly predictable and
sustainable with zero visual impact and the turbines are completely submerged. Tidal
power is like putting a wind turbine subsea and the turbine rotors rotate slowly, causing
very little environmental impact to marine flora and fauna,” said Cornelius.

The power offtaker would be Gujarat Power Corporation. The final cost of power per unit
will be determined at the completion of front-end engineering and design (FEED) phase,
but was expected to be competitive when compared to the large solar power projects
planned for development in Gujarat, the company said.

The project is currently owned by Atlantis and GPCL and project equity participants will
be sought at the completion of FEED phase.




                                              33
Late last year, Atlantis became the turbine supplier to the largest planned marine power
project in the world, MeyGen, a 378-Mw tidal power project in the Pentland Firth in
Northern Scotland.

Current estimates suggest 15 per cent of the world’s power demands can be met by tidal
current power sources, while the estimates for India are currently around 5 per cent of its
annual demand for power.

“It is only an estimate, but it could be certainly more than 5 per cent, inclusive of wave
power and tidal power, from what we know now. However, resource investigation has just
begun and with so much coast line, I would expect this number to increase significantly,”
said Cornelius.

Sea water, which is 832 times denser than air, gives a 5 knot ocean current more kinetic
energy than a 350-km an hour wind, thus allowing ocean currents to have a very high
energy density. Accurate predictions of tidal current movements also make this one of the
most predictable and, therefore, reliable sources of renewable energy available today.

Nuclear Energy-

The global nuclear industry is moving forward at a brisk pace, only slightly slowed by the
Fukushima accident. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s most realistic estimate is
that 90 new nuclear plants will enter service by 2030. Ten new nuclear plants went online
over the past two years.

The home of more than one billion people, India has had one of the world’s fastest-growing
economies over the past decade. During this same time frame, the country has made big
strides in increasing its capacity for nuclear generation of electricity.

India now envisages increasing the contribution of nuclear power to overall electricity
generation capacity from 3.2% to 9% within 25 years. By 2020, India's installed nuclear
power generation capacity will increase to 20,000 MW.

India now ranks sixth in terms of production of nuclear energy, behind the U.S., France,
Japan, Russia, and South Korea.

There are now 439 nuclear reactors in operation around the world in over 30 countries,
providing almost 16% of the world’s electricity.

Given the emphasis on rapid expansions in the Indian nuclear power industry, it is
imperative to bring the Indian know-how and resources together with global nuclear skills
and experience to introduce a new dimension to the upcoming nuclear power projects.
Looking at all above important issues, UBM India is bringing its 4th International
Exhibition and Conference from 25 to 27 September 2012 at Mumbai. The exhibition and
the concurrent summit will be an excellent global networking opportunity for the
exhibitors, visitors and delegates. It will provide an opportunity for all companies showcase


                                             34
their nuclear expertise and know-how and identify business opportunities in the Indian
market.

Presently         Nuclear          power is          the           fourth-largest        source
of electricity in India after thermal, hydroelectric and renewable sources of electricity.As of
2010, India has 20 nuclear reactors in operation in six nuclear power plants, generating
4,780 MW while seven other reactors are under construction and are expected to generate
an additional 5,300 MW.
In October 2010, India drew up "an ambitious plan to reach a nuclear power capacity of
63,000 MW in 2032", but "populations around proposed Indian NPP sites have launched
protests, raising questions about atomic energy as a clean and safe alternative to fossil
fuels". There have been mass protests against the French-backed 9900 MW Jaitapur
Nuclear Power Project in Maharashtra and the 2000 MW Koodankulam Nuclear Power
Plant in Tamil Nadu. The state government of West Bengal state has also refused
permission to a proposed 6000 MW facility near the town of Haripur that intended to host
six Russian reactors. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) has also been filed against the
government’s civil nuclear program at the Supreme Court. Despite these impediments the
capacity factor of Indian reactors was at 79% in the year 2011-12 as against 71% in 2010-
11. Nine out of Twenty Indian reactors recorded an unprecedented 97% Capacity factor
during 2011-12. With the imported Uranium from France, the 220 MW Kakrapar 2 PHWR
reactors recorded 99% capacity factor during 2011-12. The Availability factor for the year
2011-12 was at 89%.



Bio-mass Energy-

Bio-energy contribution to the total primary energy consumption in India is over 27%.
Indeed, this is the case for many other countries, because biomass is used in a significant
way in rural areas in many countries. However, the contribution of biomass to power
production is much smaller than this - currently, biomass comprises only about 2650 MW
of installed capacity, out of a total of about 172000 MW of total electricity installed
capacity in the country (May 2011).

India is the pioneer in biomass gasification based power production. While gasification as a
technology has been prevalent elsewhere in the world, India pioneered the use of biomass
gasification for power production. As a result, prominent Indian solution providers in
biomass gasification are implementing their solutions in other parts of the world.

EAI estimates the total installed capacity of biomass gasification based power production
in India will be about 140 MW, out of a total of about 2600 MW of biomass based power
(cumulative of grid connected and off grid). Of the total, biogas based power generation
has the share (about 1400 MW), followed by combustion-based biomass power production
(about 875 MW). While biomass gasification currently contributes little to power
production, EAI foresees significant growth for this sector in future.

Waste Resource-
                                              35
Every year there is an estimated 30 million tons of solid waste and 4,400 million cubic
meters of liquid waste generated in urban areas of India alone. The problems caused by
solid and liquid wastes can be significantly mitigated through adoption of environment-
friendly waste-to-energy technologies. These technologies hold the promise of reducing
quantity of wastes and in addition, generate a substantial quantity of energy from them, and
greatly reduce pollution of water and air. In spite of the unquantifiable level of benefits,
they are still not seen as an attractive business opportunity. The reason for this is the lack of
understanding about the various (technology/process) options available and long term
viability of the waste to energy projects.

We at EAI have been researching the waste to energy industry for the past few years and
have developed a thorough understanding of the various technology options and their
viabilities. Diverse business opportunities along the value chain, the global scenario and the
market segment for each of the waste to energy technologies are well known to us and we
are poised to provide a balanced opinion about waste to energy industry.

can provide extensive research and consulting assistance for value generation from the
following types of waste:

      Industrial solid waste
      Municipal solid waste
      Hazardous waste
      Industrial liquid waste
      Sewage and Fecal Waste
      Agro and crop waste

We can also provide customized inputs for value and energy generation based on the
following processes:

      Anaerobic digestion
      Pyrolysis
      Gasification
      Combustion
      Fermentatio


Limitation of Renewable energy resources in India-
      Renewable energy often relies on the weather for its source of power that is
       unpredictable and intermittent.
      Solar power is dependent on availability of sunlight. Thus the availability of power
       fluctuates from zero to maximum every day.
      The current cost of renewable energy technology is also far in excess of traditional
       fossil fuel generation.




                                               36
7 Natural Gas in India:-
7.1 Current Natural Gas Scenario in India-

India is the world’s seventh largest energy producer, accounting for 2.49% of the worlds
 total annual energy production. It is the fifth largest energy consumer, accounting for
about
3.45 % of total energy consumption in 2004, which has been increasing by an average of
4.8 % percent a year since 1990. The share of commercial energy in total primary energy
consumption increased from 59.7 % in 1980-81 to 79.3 % in 2008-09. India’s GDP has
grown at more than 8-8.5 % during the last few years, and is expected to grow minimum at
the rate of 7.5-9 % in the coming few years. The growth has taken place despite the huge
deficit in energy infrastructure and infrastructure. Even today, half of the country’s
population does not have access to electricity or any other form of commercial energy, and
still use non- commercial fuels such as firewood, crop residues end during cakes as a
primary source of energy for cooking in over two-thirds of households.

Major gas projects in India-

 Project                          State                Commissioned Capacity (MW)
 RGPPL, Anjanvel                  Maharashtra          1480
 Dadri                            Uttar Pradesh        817
 Paguthan                         Gujarat              654.73
 Auraiya                          Uttar Pradesh        652
 Jhanor-Gandhar                   Gujarat              648
 Kawas                            Gujarat              645
 Faridabad                        Haryana              430
 Anta                             Rajasthan            413
 Vemagiri Power Generation Ltd.   Andhra Pradesh       388.5
 Rajiv Gandhi CCPP Kayamkulam Kerala                   350




                                                  37
7.2 Demand and Forecasts for India-

The demand of natural gas has sharply increased in the last two decades at the global
level. In India natural gas was first discovered off the west coast in 1970s, and today, it
constitutes 10 % of India’s total energy consumption. Over the last decade it has gained
importance as a source of energy and its share is slated to increase to about 25 % of the
total energy basket by 2025-2030. In its Reference Scenario, the IEA expects Indian gas
demand to increase to 94 billion cubic meters by 2020 and to 132 billion cubic meters by
2030, driven by the industrial and power generation sectors. This means anannual
increase of 5.4 % – one of the highest in the world. In the 450 Scenario, demand by 2020
would be slightly lower (89 billion cubic meters), but by 2030 would almost remain at
the same level as in the Reference Scenario –
132 billion cubic meters– as gas would be needed to displace coal. The latest available
                                        th
Indian demand forecasts for the 11 Five- year plan (2007-12) show gas demand
increasing by between 37 % and 58 % over that period and the power sector being the
main driver for incremental gas demand (see Table below).




                                            38
Natural Gas Demand Projection




Reference- http://ebookbrowse.com/rr07-23-india-natural-gas-indd-pdf-d132734147


7.3 Competitive demand from Fertilizer & City Gas Sector-

Further, ICRA expects the prospects for the CGD business to remain good in the long term,
given the under-penetration of city gas in India in the absence of adequate gas and
transmission pipeline capacity. Natural gas allocation will invite Expression of Interest
(EOI) from those interested, henceforth called applicant, in the use of the gas as advertised.
It will also indicate the compression/transportation charges, as applicable, to each field in
advance and clarify that these shall have to be borne by the applicant (s).

EOIs shall be submitted in a sealed cover super scribing the priority sector they belong to.
The sectors have been prioritized as given below.

a. Gas-Based Urea fertilizer plants

b. LPG Plants

c. Power Plants supplying power to the grid/state utilities at regulated rates under PPA.

d. CGD systems for domestic and transport sectors

e. Steel/Refineries/Petrochemicals for feedstock purposes.

f. CGD for industrial and Commercial Consumers.

g. Any other customers for captive and merchant power, feedstock or fuel purpose.

Allocation shall start from applicants highest in the priority as mentioned above. Further,
only if the full gas demands of all applicants in the preceding sector are met, will the
succeeding priority sector be taken up for allocation in that sector.

Reference- http://www.petroleum.nic.in/




                                             39
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report
Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report

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Natural gas as allternate fuel for electricity generation final report

  • 1. NATURAL GAS AS AN ALTERNATE FUEL FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN INDIA Summer Project Report Presented To The Academic Faculty By Varun Kumar Choudhary Roll no.- 11BM60019 Industry Guide- Dr. A. P. Dash Senior Faculty, Project Management Institute, NTPC Ltd. New Delhi. Mr. B. P. Rath Manager, New Project Development NTPC Ltd. Faculty Guide- Dr. Kalyan Kumar Guine Professor, Vinod Gupta School of Management, IIT Kharagpur. Vinod Gupta School of Management, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur 1
  • 2. Acknowledgement I express my profound gratitude to my supervisors, Professor A.P Dash and B. P Rath sir whose benign guidance has enlightened my path through the course of this work. Besides their dedication to academic life, their disciplined and austere habits have been a source of constant inspiration to me. They are humane with willingness to help others, care for everyone, and always being concerned about the progress. It was an enriching experience to work and learn under them. Varun Kumar Choudhary 2
  • 3. Table of Contents 1. Executive Summery - ........................................................................................................ 5 2. NTPC PROFILE:- ............................................................................................................ 6 3. Project Objective- ........................................................................................................... 11 4. Introduction- ................................................................................................................... 12 4.1 Electricity is prime mover of Indian economy: ............................................................................. 12 4.2 Electricity demand in India-........................................................................................................... 14 4.3 Dependence of Electricity demand on GDP growth rate-.............................................................. 15 4.4 Major available resources for electricity generation-..................................................................... 17 5. Coal as a fuel for electricity generation- ....................................................................... 19 5.1 Predominant Position of Coal- ....................................................................................................... 19 5.2 Inventory of geological resources of coal in India- ....................................................................... 19 5.3 Type and category-wise coal resources of India-........................................................................... 20 5.4 Consumption pattern of coal-......................................................................................................... 21 5.5 Factors Affecting Coal Prices in India-.......................................................................................... 21 5.5.1 Domestic coal production and demand: .............................................................................. 23 5.5.2 Coal Import- ........................................................................................................................ 23 5.5.3 Domestic Coal Price Fixation- .................................................................................. 24 5.5.4 Quantity of Coal to be sold at market price:- ...................................................................... 25 5.5.5 Impact of crude oil price on Thermal coal prices:- ............................................................. 25 5.5.6 Impact of Exchange rate on coal prices:- ............................................................................ 26 5.5.7 Impact of availability of land on coal prices-...................................................................... 27 6. Renewable resources in India:-...................................................................................... 29 7. Natural Gas in India:- .................................................................................................... 37 7.1 Current Natural Gas Scenario in India-.......................................................................................... 37 7.2 Demand and Forecasts for India- ................................................................................................... 38 7.3 Competitive demand from Fertilizer & City Gas Sector- .............................................................. 39 7.4 Structure of the natural gas sector in India- ................................................................................... 40 7.5 Domestic Natural Gas in India- ..................................................................................................... 41 7.6 Domestic Gas pipe lines network in India- .................................................................................... 43 7.7 Trance-national gas pipe lines- ...................................................................................................... 44 7.7.1 TAPI- pipeline- ................................................................................................................... 45 3
  • 4. 7.7.2 Iran–Pakistan–India pipeline- ............................................................................................. 46 7.7.3 Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Pipeline- ................................................................................ 47 7.8 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) – ..................................................................................................... 49 7.8.1 Regasification Capacity of India-........................................................................................ 49 7.9 Coal gasification in India-.............................................................................................................. 50 8. 8 Factors affecting Natural gas pricing:- ...................................................................... 51 8.1 Natural gas pricing in India- .......................................................................................................... 51 8.1.1 APM (Administered Pricing Mechanism) Gas Pricing:- ....................................................... 54 8.1.2 Pricing of Gas under Pre-NELP Production Sharing Contracts (PSC)................................... 55 8.1.3 Pricing of Gas with reference to NELP Provisions-.............................................................. 55 8.2 Imported Gas (LNG) Pricing- .......................................................................................................... 55 8.3 Pricing Issue:- ................................................................................................................................. 57 8.4 Framework of New Pool Pricing Mechanism:- .............................................................................. 59 8.4.1 Need for Pool Pricing:- ........................................................................................................ 59 8.4.2 Proposed Roadmap of Pool Pricing Mechanism:-............................................................... 60 8.5 Effect of Globalization of Gas market on gas prices:- .................................................................... 62 9. 9 Shale Gas:- .................................................................................................................... 66 9.1 Shale gas historical back ground and development:- .................................................................... 66 9.2 Shale Gas Reserve:- ........................................................................................................................ 68 9.3 Hydraulic fracking- breakthrough in shale gas:- ............................................................................ 69 9.4 Issues with Hydraulic fracking:- ..................................................................................................... 71 9.5 Implication of shale gas reserve on traditional gas producers in US:- .......................................... 71 9.6 Implication on Indian gas market:- ................................................................................................ 72 9.7 China planned for shale gas development:- .................................................................................. 72 10. Energy Security in India:- .............................................................................................. 74 11. Findings & Recommendations:- .................................................................................... 79 12. References:- ..................................................................................................................... 82 4
  • 5. 1 Executive Summery - In India installed capacity for power generation is 199.87 Gigawatt (GW) as of March 2012; the world’s fifth largest, of which approximately 30,000 MW running idle due to shortage of fuel supply. The International Energy Agency estimates that estimates India will add between 600 GW to 1200 GW of additional new power generation capacity before 2050. Due to acute shortfall in domestic coal production to meet demand and higher exchange rate is severely affecting power sector in India. Exploration of huge shale gas reserve of USA and China and natural gas have changed prospective of fuel supply. Indian coal is of high ash content and low sulfur content. Its contribution to power sector is around 56.4% and natural gas contribution to power sector is around 9.2% of total power generation. Our objective is the scope of natural gas as an alternate fuel for electricity in India. Due to higher prices of coal and petroleum, substitutively fuel demand can be met by natural gas. Natural gas demand is continuously increasing and furcating is done at different scenarios of growth rate. There are three options for natural gas- domestic natural gas, piped natural gas and imported liquefied natural gas. Domestic gas production in India is continuously falling down is not viable option. Presently we have a country wide network of 12,000 km of gas pipeline and having capacity to transport 230 mmscmd of gas. Study of natural gas pricing method in India and factors affecting natural gas pricing and scope of new pricing method pool pricing in India. Demand from different sectors i.e. fertilizer, city gas sector and power sector. And scope of shale gas exploration and production. With a burgeoning population, we have to recognize that resources are scarce and plan accordingly. End use efficiency, reduction of wastage and accountability has great potential for improvement. Investment in coal base electricity needs critical appraisal because of availability, land requirement, pollution, green house gas emission and ash disposal and increasing cost of environment needs critical appraisal. Natural gas based electricity generator are generally not approved because of lack of domestic availability of natural gas besides domestic gas sector has received a thrust with shale gas and Hydraulic fracking technology in US. A relook into fuel import i. e. import of coal vis a vis import of natural gas is a national imperative in view of the need for electricity keeping in view all other collateral concerns. Diesel generator can be replaced by natural gas plant- In India electricity generated by DG set- 1200 MW at cost of Rs. 12/kwh and grid power at cost of Rs 3/kwh. This market will grow at the rate of 20% for coming years. Natural gas can be used for distributed power generation-Due to heavy distribution and transmission losses (around 30%) distributed generation by natural gas is better option as it can be produced at cost of Rs. 6 to 7 per kwh. 5
  • 6. 2 NTPC PROFILE:- NTPC Limited (formerly National Thermal Power Corporation) is the largest state- owned power generating company in India. Forbes Global 2000 for 2010 ranked it 341th in the world. It is an Indian public sector company listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange although at present the Government of India holds 84.5%(after divestment the stake by Indian government on 19october2009) of its equity. With a current generating capacity of 34194 MW, NTPC has embarked on plans to become a 75,000 MW company by 2017. It was founded on November 7, 1975. NTPC's core business is engineering, construction and operation of power generating plants and providing consultancy to power utilities in India and abroad. The total installed capacity of the company is 34,194 MW (including JVs) with 15 coal based and 7 gas based stations, located across the country. In addition under JVs, 5 stations are coal based & another station uses naphtha/LNG as fuel. The company has set a target to have an installed power generating capacity of 1,28,000 MW by the year 2032. The capacity will have a diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% Gas, 11% Nuclear and 17% Renewable Energy Sources(RES) including hydro. By 2032, non fossil fuel based generation capacity shall make up nearly 28% of NTPC’s portfolio. NTPC has been operating its plants at high efficiency levels. Although the company has 18.79% of the total national capacity it contributes 28.60% of total power generation due to its focus on high efficiency. NTPC’s share at 31 Mar 2001 of the total installed capacity of the country was 24.51% and it generated 29.68% of the power of the country in 2008–09. Every fourth home in India is lit by NTPC. As at 31 Mar 2011 NTPC's share of the country's total installed capacity is 6
  • 7. 17.75% and it generated 27.4% of the power generation of the country in 2010–11. NTPC is lighting every third bulb in India. 170.88BU of electricity was produced by its stations in the financial year 2005–2006. The Net Profit after Tax on March 31, 2006 was INR 58,202 million. Net Profit after Tax for the quarter ended June 30, 2006 was INR 15528 million, which is 18.65% more than for the same quarter in the previous financial year. 2005). In October 2004, NTPC launched its Initial Public Offering (IPO) consisting of 5.25% as fresh issue and 5.25% as offer for sale by Government of India. NTPC thus became a listed company in November 2004 with the Government holding 89.5% of the equity share capital. In February 2010, the Shareholding of Government of India was reduced from 89.5% to 84.5% through Further Public Offer. The rest is held by Institutional Investors and the Public. Pursuant to a special resolution passed by the Shareholders at the Company’s Annual General Meeting on September 23, 2005 and the approval of the Central Government under section 21 of the Companies Act, 1956, the name of the Company "National Thermal Power Corporation Limited" has been changed to "NTPC Limited" with effect from October 28, 2005. The primary reason for this is the company's foray into hydro and nuclear based power generation along with backward integration by coal mining. (NTPC) is in the 138th position in Fortune 500 in 2009. 10 Indian companies make it to FT's top 500. Vision “To be the world’s largest and best power producer, powering India’s growth.” Mission “Develop and provide reliable power, related products and services at competitive prices, integrating multiple energy sources with innovative and eco-friendly technologies and contribute to society.” Core Values – BCOMIT  Business Ethics  Customer Focus  Organizational& Professional Pride  Mutual Respect & Trust  Innovation & Speed  Total Quality for Excellence 7
  • 8. Diversified Growth As per new corporate plan, NTPC plans to become a 75 GW company by the year 2017 and envisages to have an installed capacity of 128 GW by the year 2032 with a well- diversified fuel mix comprising 56% coal, 16% gas, 11% nuclear energy, 9% renewable energy and 8% hydro power based capacity. As such, by the year 2032, 28% of NTPC’s installed generating capacity will be based on carbon free energy sources. Further, the coal based capacity will increasingly be based on high-efficient-low-emission technologies such as Super-critical and Ultra-Super-critical. Along with this growth, NTPC will utilize a strategic mix of options to ensure fuel security for its fleet of power stations. Looking at the opportunities coming its way, due to changes in the business environment, NTPC made changes in its strategy and diversified in the business adjacencies along the energy value chain. In its pursuit of diversification NTPC has developed strategic alliances and joint ventures with leading national and international companies. NTPC has also made long strides in developing its Ash Utilization business.  Hydro Power: In order to give impetus to hydro power growth in the country and to have a balanced portfolio of power generation, NTPC entered hydro power business with the 800 MW Koldam hydro project in Himachal Pradesh. Two more projects have also been taken up in Uttarakhand. A wholly owned subsidiary, NTPC Hydro Ltd., is setting up hydro projects of capacities up to 250 MW.  Renewable Energy: In order to broad base its fuel mix NTPC has plan of capacity addition of about 1,000 MW through renewable resources by 2017.  Nuclear Power: A Joint Venture Company "AnushaktiVidhyut Nigam Ltd." has been formed (with 51% stake of NPCIL and 49% stake of NTPC) for development of nuclear power projects in the country.  Coal Mining: In a major backward integration move to create fuel security, NTPC has ventured into coal mining business with an aim to meet about 20% of its coal requirement from its captive mines by 2017. The Government of India has so far allotted 7 coal blocks to NTPC, including 2 blocks to be developed through joint venture route.  Power Trading: 'NTPC VidyutVyapar Nigam Ltd.' (NVVN), a wholly owned subsidiary was created for trading power leading to optimal utilization of NTPC’s assets. It is the second largest power trading company in the country. In order to facilitate power trading in the country, ‘National Power Exchange Ltd.’, a JV of NTPC, NHPC, PFC and TCS has been formed for operating a Power Exchange.  Ash Business: NTPC has focused on the utilization of ash generated by its power stations to convert the challenge of ash disposal into an opportunity. Ash is being used as a raw material input by cement companies and brick manufacturers. NVVN is engaged in the business of Fly Ash export and sale to domestic customers. Joint ventures with cement companies are being planned to set up cement grinding units 8
  • 9. in the vicinity of NTPC stations.  Power Distribution: ‘NTPC Electric Supply Company Ltd.’ (NESCL), a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC, was set up for distribution of power. NESCL is actively engaged in ‘Rajiv Gandhi GraminVidyutikaranYojana’programme for rural electrification.  Equipment Manufacturing: Enormous growth in power sector necessitates augmentation of power equipment manufacturing capacity. NTPC has formed JVs with BHEL and Bharat Forge Ltd. for power plant equipment manufacturing. NTPC has also acquired stake in Transformers and Electricals Kerala Ltd. (TELK) for manufacturing and repair of transformers. Future Capacity Additions NTPC has formulated a long term Corporate Plan upto 2032. In line with the Corporate Plan, the capacity addition under implementation stage is presented below: STATE MW PROJECT Coal 1. Indira Gandhi STPP- JV with IPGCL & HPGCL ( 3 x 500) Haryana 1000 2. Sipat I (3 x 660) Chhattisgarh 1980 3. Simhadri II Unit - IV( 500) Andhra Pradesh 500 4. Vallur I -JV with TNEB ( 2 x 500) Tamilnadu 1000 5. Vallur Stage-I Phase-II -JV with TNEB ( 1 x 500) Tamilnadu 500 6. Bongaigaon(3 x 250) Assam 750 7. Mauda ( 2 x 500) Maharashta 1000 8. Rihand III(2X500) Uttar Pradesh 1000 9. Vindhyachal-IV (2X500) Madhya Pradesh 1000 10. Muzaffarpur Expansion (2x195) – JV with BSEB Bihar 390 11. Nabinagar TPP-JV with Railways (4 x 250) Bihar 1000 12. Barh II (2 X 660) Bihar 1320 13. Barh I (3 X 660) Bihar 1980 Hydro 1. Koldam HEPP ( 4 x 200) Himachal Pradesh 800 2. TapovanVishnugad HEPP (4 x 130) Uttarakhand 520 3. Singrauli CW Discharge(Small Hydre) Uttar Pradesh 8 Total 14748 Subsidiaries NTPC Electric Supply Company Ltd. (NESCL) The company was formed on August 21, 2002. It is a wholly owned subsidiary company of NTPC with the objective of making a foray into the business of distribution and supply of electrical energy, as a sequel to reforms initiated in the power sector. NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd. (NVVN) 9
  • 10. The company was formed on November 1, 2002, as a wholly owned subsidiary company of NTPC. The company’s objective is to undertake sale and purchase of electric power, to effectively utilise installed capacity and thus enable reduction in the cost of power. NVVN NTPC Hydro Ltd. (NHL) The company was formed on December 12, 2002, as a wholly owned subsidiary company of NTPC with an objective to develop small and medium hydroelectric power projects of up to 250 MW. More>> Pipavav Power Development Co. Ltd. (PPDCL) A memorandum of understanding was signed between NTPC, Gujarat Power Corporation Limited (GPCL) and Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB) in 2004 for development of a 1000 MW thermal power project at Pipavav in Gujarat by forming a new joint venture company between NTPC and GPCL with 50:50 equity participation. Pursuant to the decision of Gujarat Government, NTPC Ltd. has dissociated itself from this company. PPDCL is under winding up. Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam Limited, (formerly known as Vaishali Power Generating Company Limited) To take over Muzaffarpur Thermal Power Station (2*110MW), a subsidiary company named ‘Vaishali Power Generating Company Limited (VPGCL)’ was incorporated on September 6, 2006 with NTPC contributing 51% of equity and balance equity was contributed by Bihar State Electricity Board. This company was formed to renovate the existing unit and run the plant. The second unit has been successfully re-synchronized on October 17, 2007 after 4 years of being idle. Renovation and modernization of the first unit is under progress. The company was rechristened as ‘Kanti Bijlee Utpadan Nigam Limited’ on April 10, 2008. Bharatiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited (BRBCL) A subsidiary of NTPC under the name of ‘Bharatiya Rail Bijlee Company Limited’ was incorporated on November 22, 2007 with 74:26 equity contribution from NTPC and Ministry of Railways, Govt. of India respectively for setting up of four units of 250 MW each of coal based power plant at Nabinagar, Bihar. Investment approval of the project was accorded in January, 2008. 10
  • 11. 3 Project Objective- To find out viable option for fuel supply to set new power plant on India. Study of power sector in India and all available fuel supply option for electricity generation in India to find out scope of natural gas as an alternate fuel for electricity generation. Electricity demand projection in India at different growth rate scenarios. Natural gas supply option as domestic natural gas reserve and natural gas import. Study of piped natural gas and LNG import. To find out viable natural gas supply option while keeping in mind price, gas reserve, infrastructure requirement and time period required to be operational. Natural gas as a fuel for distributed power generation to reduce transmission losses and replacement of DG sets by natural gas based turbines. Natural gas price mechanism in India and in different regional gas market and impact of globalization of gas market. Scope of shale gas exploration and impact of it on India and traditional natural gas producer. 11
  • 12. 4 Introduction- 4.1 Electricity is prime mover of Indian economy: Electricity is the prime mover of growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. The projected growth of the Indian economy depends heavily on the performance and growth of the power sector. It is the endeavor of the Government to ensure that agriculture, industry, commercial establishments and all households receive uninterrupted supply of electricity at affordable rates. The electricity sector in India had an installed capacity of 199.87 Gigawatt (GW) as of March 2012, the world's fifth largest. Captive power plants generate an additional 31.5 GW. Thermal power plants constitute 66% of the installed capacity, hydroelectric about 19% and rest being a combination of wind, small hydro, biomass, waste-to- electricity, and nuclear. India generated 855 BU electricity during 2011-12 fiscal year. In terms of fuel, coal-fired plants account for 57% of India's installed electricity capacity, compared to South Africa's 92%; China's 77%; and Australia's 76%. After coal, renewal hydropower accounts for 19%, and natural gas for about 9%. In December 2011, over 300 million Indian citizens had no access to electricity. Over one third of India's rural population lacked electricity, as did 6% of the urban population. Of those who did have access to electricity in India, the supply was intermittent and unreliable. In 2010, blackouts and power shedding interrupted irrigation and manufacturing across the country. The per capita average annual domestic electricity consumption in India in 2009 was 96 kWh in rural areas and 288 kWh in urban areas for those with access to electricity, in contrast to the worldwide per capita annual average of 2600 kWh and 6200 kWh in the European Union. India's total domestic, agricultural and industrial per capita energy consumption estimate vary depending on the source. Two sources place it between 400 to 700kWh in 2008–2009. As of January 2012, one report found the per capita total consumption in India to be 778 kWh. India currently suffers from a major shortage of electricity generation capacity, even though it is the world's fourth largest energy consumer after United States, China and Russia.The International Energy Agency estimates India needs an investment of at least $135 billion to provide universal access of electricity to its population. The International Energy Agency estimates India will add between 600 GW to 1200 GW of additional new power generation capacity before 2050.This added new capacity is equivalent to the 740 GW of total power generation capacity of European Union (EU-27) in 2005. The technologies and fuel sources India adopts, as it adds this electricity generation capacity, may make significant impact to global resource usage and environmental issues. 12
  • 13. India's electricity sector is amongst the world's most active players in renewable energy utilization, especially wind energy. As of December 2011, India had an installed capacity of about 22.4 GW of renewal technologies-based electricity, exceeding the total installed electricity capacity in Austria by all technologies. India's network losses exceeded 32% in 2010 including non-technical losses, compared to world average of less than 15%. Both technical and non-technical factors contribute to these losses, but quantifying their proportions is difficult. Some experts estimate that technical losses are about 15% to 20%, A high proportion of non‐technical losses are caused by illegal tapping of lines, but faulty electric meters that underestimate actual consumption also contribute to reduced payment collection. A case study in Kerala estimated that replacing faulty meters could reduce distribution losses from 34% to 29%. Key implementation challenges for India's electricity sector include new project management and execution, ensuring availability of fuel quantities and qualities, lack of initiative to develop large coal and natural gas resources present in India, land acquisition, environmental clearances at state and central government level, and training of skilled manpower to prevent talent shortages for operating latest technology plants. For the past two decades, India has had to face increasing deficit in power supply, both for meeting its normal energy requirements as well as its peak load demand. The problem is acute during peak hours and summers, and necessitates planned load shedding by many utilities to maintain the grid in a healthy state. The average all-India shortages in 2009-10 were at 10 per cent in terms of normal energy requirement and about 13 per cent in terms of peak load. With the shortage at both the normal and the peak levels, Indian power industry does not exhibit much cyclicality. Further, with assured returns, the margins of players and their profitability is almost independent of the economic cycles. Electricity is the most important component of primary energy. India’s electricity consumption has grown at an average rate of 7.3 per cent during the period 2002-07 to about 577.9 TWh. Consumption has increased at a faster rate since 2002-03, reflecting buoyant industrial demand. Industrial consumers are the largest group of electricity consumers, followed by the domestic, agricultural and commercial consumers, in that order. India’s per capita electricity consumption increased from 178 kWh in 1985-86 to 704.4 kWh in 2007-08. Over the period, 2001-08, per capita consumption has increased at an average rate of 4.45 per cent. It is still much lower compared to the international standards. 13
  • 14. 4.2 Electricity demand in India- Electricity demand at peak load and at normal load is mentioned below in table. In past ten years normal energy shortfall is regularly increasing, in 2003-04 it was 7.1 % and in 2008-09 it was 11.1% of demand. Peak load energy shortage is also high. Indian economy is one of fastest growing economy of world. As economy is growing energy demand is also growing to meet industrial demand. Table- Electricity Demand and Supply FY Energy Peak Demand (MU) (MW) Demand Availability Shortage % Demand Met Shortage % 2002-03 545,983 497,890 48,093 8.8 81,492 71,547 9,945 12.2 2003-04 559,264 519,398 39,866 7.1 84,574 75,066 9,508 11.2 2004-05 591,373 548,115 43,258 7.3 87,906 77,652 10,254 11.7 2005-06 631,024 578,511 52,513 8.3 93,214 81,792 11,422 12.3 2006-07 693,057 624,716 68,341 9.9 100,715 86,818 13,897 13.8 2007-08 737,052 664,660 72,392 9.8 108,866 90,793 18,073 16.6 2008-09 777,039 691,038 86,001 11.1 109,809 96,785 13,024 11.9 2009-10 830,594 746,644 83,950 10.1 118,472 102,725 15,747 13.3 2010-11 861,591 811,100 50,491 5.9 152746 137013.2 15732.84 10.3 Table- Electricity demand projection at different growth rate- Installed Capacity Energy Requirement Peak Demand Required (Billion kWh) (GW) (GW) GDP 6.00% 8.00% 9.00% 6.00% 8.00% 9.00% 6.00% 8.00% 9.00% growth at 2011-12 1097 1,097 1,097 158 158 158 199 199 199 2016-17 1407 1,524 1,586 203 220 228 255 276 288 2021-22 1804 2,118 2,293 260 305 330 327 384 416 2026-27 2267 2,866 3,219 327 413 464 411 520 584 2031-32 2850 3,880 4,518 411 560 651 517 704 820 14
  • 15. Electricity demand projection as mentioned in above table was done on basis falling elasticity of electricity, data source- report of planning commission of India. Table- Elasticity used for projection- Year Electricity (falling Elasticity) 2011-12 to 2021-22 0.85 2021-22 to 2031-32 0.78 4.3 Dependence of Electricity demand on GDP growth rate- Electricity is prime mover of growth rate. As industrialization grows power demand also grows to maintain higher production rate. By analyzing past 20 years data, shows that growth in electricity demand is varies as per GDP growth rate and we got following relationship between electricity demand and growth rate- Y = 29167X + 227827 Where Y= Electricity Demand X= GDP growth rate Also electricity demand projection was done for GDP growth rate of 6%, 8% and 9% for next 20 years at falling elasticity of electricity. 15
  • 16. Chart-As per data in Annexure -2 1000000 12 Electricity Demand and GDP Growth Rate 900000 10 800000 E % 700000 l 8 e 600000 G c D 500000 6 t P r 400000 i 4 G 300000 c r i 200000 o 2 t w 100000 y t 0 0 h M U Year Electricity Demand(Mus) GDP Growth Rate(%) Electricity Demand and GDP 1000000 E D 900000 l e 800000 c m 700000 t a 600000 r n 500000 i d 400000 c 300000 i ( M 200000 t U 100000 y ) 0 5.5 4.8 6.7 7.6 7.6 4.1 6.2 7.4 4 5.2 3.8 8.4 8.3 9.3 9.3 9.8 7.6 9.1 8.8 6.9 GDP growth rate y = 29167x + 227827 R² = 0.9736 Electricity Demand and GDP Linear (Electricity Demand and GDP) 16
  • 17. 4.4 Major available resources for electricity generation- Major power resources option Nuclear Hydro Energy Coal Wind Energy Solar Energy Natural gas Energy Domestic coal Domestic gas Piped Natural Imported coal gas Blended Coal LNG Legnite 17
  • 18. Sector wise power generation in 2012 in India Oil Neclear 1% 2% gas RES 9% 12% hydro 19% coal 57% The 17th electric power survey of India report claims-  Over 2010–11, India's industrial demand accounted for 35% of electrical power requirement, domestic household use accounted for 28%, agriculture 21%, commercial 9%, public lighting and other miscellaneous applications accounted for the rest.  The electrical energy demand for 2016–17 is expected to be at least 1392 Tera Watt Hours, with a peak electric demand of 218 GW.  The electrical energy demand for 2021–22 is expected to be at least 1915 Tera Watt Hours, with a peak electric demand of 298 GW. 18
  • 19. 5 Coal as a fuel for electricity generation- 5.1 Predominant Position of Coal-  -In terms of fuel, coal-fired plants account for 57% of India's installed electricity capacity, compared to South Africa's 92%; China's 77%; and Australia's 76%. After coal, renewal hydropower accounts for 19%, and natural gas for about 9%.  -A cumulative total of 285862.21 Million Tonnes of Geological Resources of Coal have so far been estimated in India as on 1.4.2011.  -Coal is likely to remain our mainstay of fuel for power generation till 2030-31. However, current shortage is cause of concern. 5.2 Inventory of geological resources of coal in India- As a result of exploration carried out up to the maximum depth of 1200m by the GSI, CMPDI, SCCL and MECL etc, a cumulative total of 285862.21 Million Tonnes of Geological Resources of Coal have so far been estimated in the country as on 1.4.2011. The details of state-wise geological resources of coal are given as under: GONDWANA COAL FIELDS: - Annexure -2 TERTIARY COAL FIELDS- Annexure- 3 Categorization of coal resources- The coal resources of India are available in older Gondwana Formations of peninsular India and younger Tertiary formations of north-eastern region. Based on the results of Regional/ Promotional Exploration, where the boreholes are normally placed 1-2 Km apart, the resources are classified into ‘Indicated’ or ‘Inferred’ category. Subsequent Detailed Exploration in selected blocks, where boreholes are less than 400 meter apart, upgrades the resources into more reliable ‘Proved’ category. The Formation-wise and Category-wise coal resources of India as on 1.4.2010 are given in table below: (in Million Tonnes) Proved Indicated Inferred Total Formation Gondwana Coals 113407.79 137371.76 33590.02 284369.57 Tertiary Coals 593.81 99.34 799.49 1492.64 Total 114001.60 137471.10 34389.51 285862.21 * Includes 749.92 M.T. of Inferred resources established through mapping in North- Eastern region. 19
  • 20. 5.3 Type and category-wise coal resources of India- The Type and Category-wise coal resources of India as on 1.4.2011 are given in table below:- (in Million Tonnes) Proved Indicated Inferred Total Type of Coal (A) Coking :- -Prime Coking 4614.35 698.71 0 5313.06 -Medium Coking 12572.52 12001.32 1880.23 26454.07 -Semi-Coking 482.16 1003.29 221.68 1707.13 Sub-Total Coking 17669.03 13703.32 2101.91 33474.26 (B) Non-Coking:- 95738.76 12368.44 31488.11 250895.31 (C) Tertiary Coal 593.81 99.34 799.49* 1492.64 Grand Total 114001.60 137471.10 34389.51 285862.21 * Includes 749.92 M.T. of Inferred resources established through mapping in North- Eastern region. Status of Coal Resources in India during Last Five Years: As a result of Regional, Promotional and Detailed Exploration by GSI, CMPDI and SCCL etc, the estimation of coal resources of India has reached to 267.21 Bt. The estimates of coal resources in the country during last 5 years are given below: (in Million tonnes) Geological Resources of Coal As on Proved Indicated Inferred Total 1.1.2006 95866 119769 37666 253301 1.4.2007 99060 120177 38144 257381 1.4.2008 101829 124216 38490 264535 1.4.2009 105820 123470 37920 267210 1.4.2010 109798 130654 36358 276810 20
  • 21. 5.4 Consumption pattern of coal- By analyzing past 30 years data, shows that coal consumption is increasing year by yearas power demand increasing in India. Due to limited coal reserves, if coal consumption keep growing at same rate as per past trend, all economic coal reserve will be extracted within 30 years.we got following relationship for coal consumption pattern in India. Y = 18035X + 41974 Where Y= Coal consumption X= Year Annexure- 4 900000 0.2 C y = 18035x + 41974 800000 o R² = 0.9425 a 700000 0.15 l 600000 0.1 T 500000 o 400000 n 0.05 n 300000 e 200000 0 s 100000 0 -0.05 1990 1995 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Consumption Year % Change 5.5 Factors Affecting Coal Prices in India- 21
  • 22. Significant demand from China and India is increasingly accounting for the bulk of worldwide coal usage. Hence, coal demand and consequently coal prices will depend on the strength of the economic recovery in the emerging markets, particularly China and India as mentioned. As several of coal commodity currencies (Aussie Dollar, SA Rand and the Columbian Peso) have floating exchange rates, any appreciation in the value of these currencies consequently increases the prices for holders of non-commodity currencies. Coal price Coal Coal to Domestic Cost of Crude oil Demand Coal sold at Exchange coal Land prices and Import market rate pricing Production price 22
  • 23. 5.5.1 Domestic coal production and demand: Domestic coal production is not meeting demand. Currently around 37,000 MW capacities of power plants running idle due to shortage of fuel supply. Coal India is also not meeting coal production target. Due to coal supply shortage prices are going up. Due to industrialization, power demand is growing. It is estimated that at the end of terminal year of 11th Five Year Plan (2011-12), the coal demand would be about 713 Million Tonnes, whereas the indigenous availabilitywould be about 630 Million Tonnes. Therefore, there is likely to be a gap of 83 Million Tonnes, which is required to be met through imports. The details are given below:- (Fig. in million tonnes) XI Plan Source 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2010-11 Proj. Actual Actual BE RE 2011-12 4 4 4 4 4 CIL 01.44 15.88 60.5 33.5 86.5 4 4 4 5 4 SCCL 4.54 9.37 7.05 0.5 7 4 4 6 5 9 Others 4.03 9.25 5.87 2.05 6.41 Total 4 5 5 5 6 indigenous 90.01 14.5 73.42 36.05 29.91 supply 5 5 6 6 7 Demand 50 97.98 56.31 24.78 13.24 Gap to be met 5 8 8 8 8 through imports 9.98 3.48 2.89 8.73 3.33 Total Import 5 7 8 8 8 (a+b) 9 3.25 2.89 8.73 3.33 5.5.2 Coal Import- As per the present Import Policy, coal can be freely imported (under Open General License) by the consumers themselves, considering their needs and exercising their own commercial prudence. Due to higher international coal prices and regularly depreciating rupees value, import of coal is not economical option for power generation. Coking coal is being imported by Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) and other Steel sector manufacturing unites mainly to bridge the gap between the requirement and indigenous availability and to improve the quality. Coal based power plants, cement plants, captive power plants, sponge iron plants, industrial consumers and coal traders import non- coking coal. Coke is imported mainly by Pig-Iron manufacturers and Iron &Steel Sector consumers using mini-blast furnace. Details of import of coal and products during the last five years are as under: 23
  • 24. Table:-Coal import (Fig. in million tonnes) 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Coking Coal 16.89 17.88 22.03 21.08 23.46 27.6 Non Coking coal 21.7 25.2 27.76 37.92 44.28 52.02 Coke 2.62 4.69 4.25 1.88 2.2 4.63 Total Import 41.21 47.77 54.04 60.88 69.94 84.05 5.5.3 Domestic Coal Price Fixation- Government of India deregulated the prices of Non-Coking Coal of grades A,B&C, Coking coal and Semi/Weakly coking coal on 22.03.1996. Subsequently, on12.03.1997, Government of India deregulated the prices of non-coking coal of grade D, Hard Coke and Soft Coke and also allowed Coal India Ltd to fix coal prices for grades E,F&G till Jan'2000 on every six months by updating cost indices as per escalation formula contained in the 1987 report of the Bureau of Industrial Cost & Prices. With effect from 01.01.2000, CIL was free to fix the prices of all grades of coal in relation to the market prices. Pursuant of the above, CIL fixed the prices of coal from time to time and last such revision has been made on26.02.2011, to be effective w.e.f 00 hrs of 27-02-11. Grade wise Basic Price of coal at the Pit-head prices of all varieties of Run of Mine Coal have been given in Table I to V applicable to the Power Utilities (including IPPs), Fertilizers and Defense and in Table VI to X applicable to consumers other than the Power Utilities, (including IPPs), Fertilizers and Defense excluding statutory levies for Run-of-mine (ROM) Non-Long- Flame Coal ,Long flame Coal, Coking Coal, Semi Coking Coal & Weakly Coking Coal, direct feed Coal, Assam Coal for various subsidiaries of CIL as shown below: COMPANYWISEGRADEWISECOALPRICESOFCILFORPOWER UTILITIES (INCLUDINGIPPs), FERTILIZERSANDDEFENCE  Basic Price of Run of Mine Non-Long-Flame Non-Coking Coal- Annexure- 5  Basic Price of Run of Mine of Other Non-Coking Coal- Annexure- 6  Basic Price of Run of Mine Long-Flame Non-Coking Coal- Annexure- 7  Coking Coal (Run of Mine) Annexure- 8  Semi Coking & Weakly Coking Coal (Run Of Mine) Annexure- 9  Direct feed Coking Coal (Run of Mine) Annexure- 10  Assam Coal (Run of Mine) Annexure- 11 24
  • 25. 5.5.4 Quantity of Coal to be sold at market price:- Coal distribution through e-auction was re-introduced in the new coal distribution policy in 2007 mainly to provide access to companies that do not have regular sources of supply. Most of the through e-auction is transported through roads. Only 10% of total coal production of Coal India Ltd is being sold by e-auctioning and prices for remaining are being administered by Government of India. Coal India is being asked to sign fuel supply agreement with power sector companies and not increase supplies to other sectors. Present spot market prices are at least 60% higher than notified prices of coal. Coal prices in domestic spot market have risen by 50% over past three years. As mentioned below in table Coal India may cut e-auctioning 10 to 7% by 2016-17. Diversion of coal from e-auction is expected to enable CIL to offer 47 MT more coal to power sector. Table- Coal e-auction plan for Coal India Ltd. up to 2016-17 Year 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Production(MT) 464 486 508 530 556 e-auction% 10 10 9 8 7 Amount(MT) 46 49 46 42 39 5.5.5 Impact of crude oil price on Thermal coal prices:- The coal demand revived upon the energy price surges during the two oil crises. The primary factor having spurred the revival was that coal was priced much cheaper than the- then skyrocketing oil and gas prices. Then such demerits as handling difficulties and environmental load, if taken into account, can undermine utility of coal unless it should be priced cheap, the greatest merit. In short, the oil price sets the ceiling of coal prices. Particularly up to first half of the 2008, coal has demonstrated price advantages over crude oil. After that at the time of uncertainty during global recession, crude oil prices fall abruptly while not in case of coal. Again in 2009 prices of both coal and crude oil started rising, and from January, 2011 coal again demonstrated advantages over crude oil. As it is clearly shown in graph coal prices are directly related to crude oil prices, varies according to crude prices change. Namely price ratio of steaming coal to crude oil has been as small as staying within the 0.38 – 0.45 range. For these reasons, the ceiling on of coal prices can be put at around 75% of the crude oil price equivalent heat value. 25
  • 26. 140 Relationship Between Crude oil and coal prices 250 120 U 200 S 100 U $ / S 150 b 80 $ a / r 60 t 100 r o e 40 n l 50 20 0 0 Oct-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Table- Crude oil prices and coal prices per month Crude oil Price per barrel Coal price per metric ton Annexure- 12 5.5.6 Impact of Exchange rate on coal prices:- A sharp decline in the value of the rupee is bound to affect the power generation capability of power plants that are heavily dependent upon imported coal for electricity generation. This would mean an increase in the level of energy deficit in the country. Moreover, a fall witnessed in power generation capacity is likely to have an adverse effect on all the three sectors of the economy namely agriculture, industry and services. Another dimension to the rupee depreciation episode is that not only has the expenditure on imports increased but this coupled with an inflexible tariff structure means that the power companies are going to suffer huge losses. The global prices of thermal coal in November 2011 were lower than that in May 2011. Yet, the depreciation of rupee has meant that the importer has to pay an additional Rs. 684.6 per tonne to import the same quantity of coal. Please refer to table below: Table: Impact of Rupee Depreciation on Thermal Coal Price- Month Price $ Exchange rate Price Rs May 127.6 45.05 5739.5 November 121.9 52.7 6424.1 Difference -5.7 7.7 684.6 Annexure- 13 26
  • 27. 9000 250 8000 7000 200 R 6000 u 150 U p 5000 S e 4000 100 e $ 3000 s 2000 50 1000 0 0 7-Jul 8-Apr 8-Jul 9-Apr 9-Jul 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 0.00 10-Jul 11-Jul 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct 10-Oct 11-Oct 8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan 12-Jan coal price in RS per MT coal price in US& per MT Exchange rate 5.5.7 Impact of availability of land on coal prices- Due to soaring up of land prices and compensation to land owner as per new land acquisition policy hues amount of money is paid for coal mining lease and that cost further increasing coal prices. New land pricing policy detail is given bellow- Land Acquisition Policy in India:- The Indian Ministry of Rural Development introduces its new draft Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation & Resettlement Bill which is a policy framework to balance between land acquisitions for industrialization with the concerns of those who depend on that land for livelihood. The new draft Land Acquisition and Rehabilitation & Resettlement Bill of 2011 which will go through a cabinet vote very soon, has been designed to address the concern of balancing the need for land to support rapid industrialization on one hand, and the needs of the people who depend on it for their livelihood. India is the third largest economy in the world today, but it faces an urgent need for growth through industrialization, especially through manufacturing. This puts the nation in need for land for a number of purposes from fuelling the inevitable process of urbanization and greater industrialization, to a variety of 'public purposes'. The nation has had a land acquisition act since 1894 which as over the time, seen quite a few amendments. But the recent heightening of public concern over land acquisition issues and the absence of a comprehensive law covering the issues of resettlement, rehabilitation and compensation of livelihoods, has highlighted the need for a wholesome law. The bill states the legitimate reasons for land acquisition as the above mentioned ones and additionally defines the purview of the term ‘public purposes’ as the following: 27
  • 28. 1. Strategic purposes: e.g., armed forces, national security; 2. Infrastructure and Industry: where benefits largely accrue to the general public 3. Land acquired for R&R purposes 4. Village or urban sites: planned development -residential purpose for the poor and educational and health schemes 5. Land for private companies for public purpose; 6. needs arising from natural calamities. Rehabilitation and Resettlement It has been observed in the past that the rehabilitation and resettlement aspect is frequently neglected once the acquisition is over, leading to widespread resentment and rebellion from the ‘affected families’, who are basically those people who either lose the and that they own, or livelihood that they had derived from the acquired land. The current draft necessitates the application of its rehabilitation and resettlement requirements if the land acquired by private companies exceeds 100 acres. The new bill states that the Government can either acquire land for its own use or for the use of private companies for stated public purpose. But the draft makes it clear that no acquisition can take place until 80% of the project affected families give their consent to the acquisition. Also, the government can make no acquisition of multi-cropped or irrigated lands or even land for the private purposes of private companies. The rehabilitation and resettlement requirements which are a major highlight of this draft included a number of minimum entitlements making a special provision of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes. Compensation and benefits As per the compensation package, the award amount paid for the land acquired in case of urban areas should be not less than double the market value determined, and not less than six times in case of rural areas. For landowners the entitlements include a subsistence allowance of Rs. 3000 per month per family for 12 months along with Rs. 2000 per family as annuity for 20 years, with the use of appropriate indexes for inflation. The loss of a house has to be compensated with the building of a new one adhering to some minimum size requirements. Entitlements for transportation and employment provisions also need to be guaranteed. An unemployment benefit has to be paid if not even a single member of the family is given employment opportunities. For those who lose their livelihood, the bill states similar entitlements. 28
  • 29. 6 Renewable resources in India:- Status of renewable energy resources in India- New & Renewable Energy Cumulative deployment of various Renewable Energy Systems/ Devices in the country as on 30/04/2012 Renewable Energy Program/ Target for Achievement Total Cumulative Systems 2012-13 during achievement achievement u April,2012 during 2012- p to 30.04.2012 13 I. POWER FROM RENEWABLES: A. GRID-INTERACTIVE POWER (CAPACITIES IN MW) Wind Power 2500 36.65 36.65 17389.31 Small Hydro Power 350 5.75 5.75 3401.06 Biomass Power 455 16.00 16.00 1166.10 Bagasse Cogeneration 7.50 7.50 1992.73 Waste to Power -Urban - - 89.68 20 -Industrial - - - Solar Power (SPV) 800 37.72 37.72 979.00 Total 4125.00 103.62 103.62 25017.88 B. OFF-GRID/ CAPTIVE POWER (CAPACITIES IN MWEQ) Waste to Energy - 20.00 1.20 1.20 102.95 Urban -Industrial Biomass(non-bagasse) 60.00 2.50 2.50 385.00 Cogeneration Biomass Gasifiers - 1.50 - - 16.12 Rural- Industrial 10.00 - - 134.09 Aero-Genrators/Hybrid 0.50 - - 1.64 systems SPV Systems (>1kW) 30.00 - - 85.21 Water mills/micro hydel 2.00(500 -. - 1877 Nos. Nos.) Total 126.00 3.70 3.70 725.01 II. REMOTE VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION No. of Remote Village/Hamlets - - - - provided with RE Systems III. OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Family Biogas Plants (No. in 1.25 - - 45.09 29
  • 30. lakhs) Solar Water Heating - Coll. 0.60 - - 5.46 Areas (Million m2) Solar Energy in India:- Solar water heaters have proved the most popular so far and solar photovoltaic for decentralized power supply is fast becoming popular in rural and remote areas. More than 700000 PV systems generating 44 MW have been installed all over India. Under the water pumping program more than 3000 systems have been installed so far and the market for solar lighting and solar pumping is far from saturated. Solar drying is one area which offers very good prospects in food, agricultural and chemical products drying applications. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) has set ambitious targets for power generation from solar energy in India. The Mission aims to have about 10 GW of grid-connected solar power plants by 2022. The mission is divided into 3 phases and the targets for grid-connected solar PV plants for each phase are- Phase 1 2010-2013 500 MW Phase 2 2013-2017 1,500 MW Phase 3 2017-2022 7,000 MW Total 10,000MW In addition to the JNNSM, several state governments have separate solar policies (Rajasthan, Gujarat and Karnataka) and many other state governments (Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh etc) are drafting solar policies on their own. Apart from this, the Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO) is expected to drive the growth of the solar PV power generation sector. India is densely populated and has high solar insulation, an ideal combination for using solar power in India. Much of the country does not have an electrical grid grid, so one of the first applications of solar power has been for water pumping; to begin replacing India's four to five million diesel powered water pumps, each consuming about 3.5 kilowatts, and off-grid lighting. Some large projects have been proposed, and a 35,000 km² area of the Thar desert has been set aside for solar power projects, sufficient to generate 700 to 2,10 Gigawatts. The Indian Solar Loan Program, supported by the United Nations Environment Program has won the prestigious Energy Globe World award for Sustainability for helping to establish a consumer financing program for solar home power systems. Over the span of three years more than 16,000 solar home systems have been financed through 2,000 bank 30
  • 31. branches, particularly in rural areas of South India where the electricity grid does not yet extend. Launched in 2003, the Indian Solar Loan Programme was a four-year partnership between UNEP, the UNEP Risoe Centre, and two of India's largest banks, the Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank. Announced in November 2009, the Government of India proposed to launch its Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission under the National Action Plan on Climate Change with plans to generate 1,000 MW of power by 2013 and up to 20,000 MW grid-based solar power, 2,000 MW of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq. meters with collectors by the end of the final phase of the mission in 2020. Also, TERI's Lighting a Billion Lives Campaign started in 2008 aims to replace kerosene and paraffin lamps with CFLs to provide off-the-grid lighting to villages and thus ease the load on the power grid while at the same time provide the people with safe, non-polluting light at night. So far, it has provided 35,000 CFLs to 640 villages in 16 states in India and also about 500 CFLs in Myanmar. This campaign has reportedly benefited 175,000 people. India's largest photovoltaic (PV) power plants- Annexure -2 Wind Energy:- In progress are wind resource assessment programme, wind monitoring, wind mapping, covering 800 stations in 24 states with 193 wind monitoring stations in operations. Altogether 13 states of India have a net potential of about 45000 MW. The development of wind power in India began in the 1990s, and has significantly increased in the last few years. Although a relative newcomer to the wind industry compared with Denmark or the United States, India has the fifth largest installed wind power capacity in the world. In 2009-10 India's growth rate was highest among the other top four countries. As of 31 March 2011 the installed capacity of wind power in India was 16078 MW, mainly spread across Tamil Nadu (6007 MW), Maharashtra (2310.70 MW), Gujarat (2175.60 MW), Karnataka(1730.10 MW), Rajasthan (1524.70 MW), Madhya Pradesh (275.50 MW), Andhra Pradesh (200.20 MW), Kerala (32.8 MW), Orissa (2MW), West Bengal (1.1 MW) and other states (3.20 MW). It is estimated that 6,000 MW of additional wind power capacity will be installed in India by 2012. Wind power accounts for 6% of India's total installed power capacity, and it generates 1.6% of the country's power. India's wind atlas is available. The worldwide installed capacity of wind power reached 197 GW by the end of 2010. China (44,733 MW), US (40,180 MW), Germany (27,215 MW) and Spain (20,676 MW) are ahead of India in fifth position. The short gestation periods for installing wind turbines, and the increasing reliability and performance of wind energy machines has made wind power a favored choice for capacity addition in India. 31
  • 32. Suzlon, an Indian-owned company, emerged on the global scene in the past decade, and by 2006 had captured almost 7.7 percent of market share in global wind turbine sales. Suzlon is currently the leading manufacturer of wind turbines for the Indian market, holding some 52 percent of market share in India. Suzlon’s success has made India the developing country leader in advanced wind turbine technology. Wind Power projects in India- Power Plant Producer Location State Total Capacity Vankusawade Wind Suzlon Energy Ltd. Satara Dist. Maharashtra 259 (MWe) Park Cape Comorin AbanLoyd Chiles Offshore Kanyakumari Tamil Nadu 33 Ltd. KayatharSubhash Subhash Ltd. Kayathar Tamil Nadu 30 Ramakkalmedu Subhash Ltd. Ramakkalmedu Kerala 25 Muppandal Wind Muppandal Wind Farm Muppandal Tamil Nadu 22 Gudimangalam Gudimangalam Wind Farm Gudimangalam Tamil Nadu 21 Puthlur RCI Wescare (India) Ltd. Puthlur Andhra 20 Pradesh LamdaDanida Danida India Ltd. Lamda Gujarat 15 Chennai Mohan Mohan Breweries & Chennai Tamil Nadu 15 Distilleries Ltd. Jamgudrani MP MP Windfarms Ltd. Dewas Madhya 14 Pradesh Jogmatti BSES BSES Ltd. ChitradurgaDist Karnataka 14 PerungudiNewam Newam Power Company Perungudi Tamil Nadu 12 Ltd. Kethanur Wind Farm Kethanur Wind Farm Kethanur Tamil Nadu 11 Hyderabad APSRTC Andhra Pradesh State Road Hyderabad Andhra 10 Transport Corp. Pradesh Muppandal Madras Madras Cements Ltd. Muppandal Tamil Nadu 10 PoolavadiChettinad Chettinad Cement Corp. Poolavadi Tamil Nadu 10 Ltd. Shalivahana Wind Shalivahana Green Energy. Tirupur Tamil Nadu 20.4 Ltd. 32
  • 33. Tidal Energy- • Tides generated by the combination of the moon and sun’s gravitational forces • Greatest affect in spring when moon and sun combine forces • Bays and inlets amplify the height of the tide • In order to be practical for energy production, the height difference needs to be at least 5 meters • Only 40 sites around the world of this magnitude • Overall potential of 3000 gigawatts from movement of tides India set to get Asia’s first power plant- With the proposed commissioning of a 50-Mw tidal power project off the coast of Gujarat in 2013, India is ready to place its first “seamark” that will be a first for Asia as well. London-based marine energy developer Atlantis Resources Corporation, along with Gujarat Power Corporation Ltd, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Gujarat government to start this project. The cost for the plant is expected to be in the vicinity of Rs 750 crore. This plant is also is expected to be scaled up to 250 Mw. Timothy Cornelius, CEO, Atlantis Resources Corporation, said with just about 2 giga watt of tidal power installations in the world today, this is a completely new and uncharted power sources with immense potential. “Tidal power today is what wind energy was 10 years back,” he said. Due to the high investment in setting up the project, a typical tidal power project is expected to break even between 8 and 12 years after commissioning. Despite the long gestation period to make it commercially viable, tidal power has unparalleled environmental advantages. “Tidal current power uses turbines to harness the energy contained in the flow of ocean tides. It is unique as like tidal movements, power output is highly predictable and sustainable with zero visual impact and the turbines are completely submerged. Tidal power is like putting a wind turbine subsea and the turbine rotors rotate slowly, causing very little environmental impact to marine flora and fauna,” said Cornelius. The power offtaker would be Gujarat Power Corporation. The final cost of power per unit will be determined at the completion of front-end engineering and design (FEED) phase, but was expected to be competitive when compared to the large solar power projects planned for development in Gujarat, the company said. The project is currently owned by Atlantis and GPCL and project equity participants will be sought at the completion of FEED phase. 33
  • 34. Late last year, Atlantis became the turbine supplier to the largest planned marine power project in the world, MeyGen, a 378-Mw tidal power project in the Pentland Firth in Northern Scotland. Current estimates suggest 15 per cent of the world’s power demands can be met by tidal current power sources, while the estimates for India are currently around 5 per cent of its annual demand for power. “It is only an estimate, but it could be certainly more than 5 per cent, inclusive of wave power and tidal power, from what we know now. However, resource investigation has just begun and with so much coast line, I would expect this number to increase significantly,” said Cornelius. Sea water, which is 832 times denser than air, gives a 5 knot ocean current more kinetic energy than a 350-km an hour wind, thus allowing ocean currents to have a very high energy density. Accurate predictions of tidal current movements also make this one of the most predictable and, therefore, reliable sources of renewable energy available today. Nuclear Energy- The global nuclear industry is moving forward at a brisk pace, only slightly slowed by the Fukushima accident. The International Atomic Energy Agency’s most realistic estimate is that 90 new nuclear plants will enter service by 2030. Ten new nuclear plants went online over the past two years. The home of more than one billion people, India has had one of the world’s fastest-growing economies over the past decade. During this same time frame, the country has made big strides in increasing its capacity for nuclear generation of electricity. India now envisages increasing the contribution of nuclear power to overall electricity generation capacity from 3.2% to 9% within 25 years. By 2020, India's installed nuclear power generation capacity will increase to 20,000 MW. India now ranks sixth in terms of production of nuclear energy, behind the U.S., France, Japan, Russia, and South Korea. There are now 439 nuclear reactors in operation around the world in over 30 countries, providing almost 16% of the world’s electricity. Given the emphasis on rapid expansions in the Indian nuclear power industry, it is imperative to bring the Indian know-how and resources together with global nuclear skills and experience to introduce a new dimension to the upcoming nuclear power projects. Looking at all above important issues, UBM India is bringing its 4th International Exhibition and Conference from 25 to 27 September 2012 at Mumbai. The exhibition and the concurrent summit will be an excellent global networking opportunity for the exhibitors, visitors and delegates. It will provide an opportunity for all companies showcase 34
  • 35. their nuclear expertise and know-how and identify business opportunities in the Indian market. Presently Nuclear power is the fourth-largest source of electricity in India after thermal, hydroelectric and renewable sources of electricity.As of 2010, India has 20 nuclear reactors in operation in six nuclear power plants, generating 4,780 MW while seven other reactors are under construction and are expected to generate an additional 5,300 MW. In October 2010, India drew up "an ambitious plan to reach a nuclear power capacity of 63,000 MW in 2032", but "populations around proposed Indian NPP sites have launched protests, raising questions about atomic energy as a clean and safe alternative to fossil fuels". There have been mass protests against the French-backed 9900 MW Jaitapur Nuclear Power Project in Maharashtra and the 2000 MW Koodankulam Nuclear Power Plant in Tamil Nadu. The state government of West Bengal state has also refused permission to a proposed 6000 MW facility near the town of Haripur that intended to host six Russian reactors. A Public Interest Litigation (PIL) has also been filed against the government’s civil nuclear program at the Supreme Court. Despite these impediments the capacity factor of Indian reactors was at 79% in the year 2011-12 as against 71% in 2010- 11. Nine out of Twenty Indian reactors recorded an unprecedented 97% Capacity factor during 2011-12. With the imported Uranium from France, the 220 MW Kakrapar 2 PHWR reactors recorded 99% capacity factor during 2011-12. The Availability factor for the year 2011-12 was at 89%. Bio-mass Energy- Bio-energy contribution to the total primary energy consumption in India is over 27%. Indeed, this is the case for many other countries, because biomass is used in a significant way in rural areas in many countries. However, the contribution of biomass to power production is much smaller than this - currently, biomass comprises only about 2650 MW of installed capacity, out of a total of about 172000 MW of total electricity installed capacity in the country (May 2011). India is the pioneer in biomass gasification based power production. While gasification as a technology has been prevalent elsewhere in the world, India pioneered the use of biomass gasification for power production. As a result, prominent Indian solution providers in biomass gasification are implementing their solutions in other parts of the world. EAI estimates the total installed capacity of biomass gasification based power production in India will be about 140 MW, out of a total of about 2600 MW of biomass based power (cumulative of grid connected and off grid). Of the total, biogas based power generation has the share (about 1400 MW), followed by combustion-based biomass power production (about 875 MW). While biomass gasification currently contributes little to power production, EAI foresees significant growth for this sector in future. Waste Resource- 35
  • 36. Every year there is an estimated 30 million tons of solid waste and 4,400 million cubic meters of liquid waste generated in urban areas of India alone. The problems caused by solid and liquid wastes can be significantly mitigated through adoption of environment- friendly waste-to-energy technologies. These technologies hold the promise of reducing quantity of wastes and in addition, generate a substantial quantity of energy from them, and greatly reduce pollution of water and air. In spite of the unquantifiable level of benefits, they are still not seen as an attractive business opportunity. The reason for this is the lack of understanding about the various (technology/process) options available and long term viability of the waste to energy projects. We at EAI have been researching the waste to energy industry for the past few years and have developed a thorough understanding of the various technology options and their viabilities. Diverse business opportunities along the value chain, the global scenario and the market segment for each of the waste to energy technologies are well known to us and we are poised to provide a balanced opinion about waste to energy industry. can provide extensive research and consulting assistance for value generation from the following types of waste:  Industrial solid waste  Municipal solid waste  Hazardous waste  Industrial liquid waste  Sewage and Fecal Waste  Agro and crop waste We can also provide customized inputs for value and energy generation based on the following processes:  Anaerobic digestion  Pyrolysis  Gasification  Combustion  Fermentatio Limitation of Renewable energy resources in India-  Renewable energy often relies on the weather for its source of power that is unpredictable and intermittent.  Solar power is dependent on availability of sunlight. Thus the availability of power fluctuates from zero to maximum every day.  The current cost of renewable energy technology is also far in excess of traditional fossil fuel generation. 36
  • 37. 7 Natural Gas in India:- 7.1 Current Natural Gas Scenario in India- India is the world’s seventh largest energy producer, accounting for 2.49% of the worlds total annual energy production. It is the fifth largest energy consumer, accounting for about 3.45 % of total energy consumption in 2004, which has been increasing by an average of 4.8 % percent a year since 1990. The share of commercial energy in total primary energy consumption increased from 59.7 % in 1980-81 to 79.3 % in 2008-09. India’s GDP has grown at more than 8-8.5 % during the last few years, and is expected to grow minimum at the rate of 7.5-9 % in the coming few years. The growth has taken place despite the huge deficit in energy infrastructure and infrastructure. Even today, half of the country’s population does not have access to electricity or any other form of commercial energy, and still use non- commercial fuels such as firewood, crop residues end during cakes as a primary source of energy for cooking in over two-thirds of households. Major gas projects in India- Project State Commissioned Capacity (MW) RGPPL, Anjanvel Maharashtra 1480 Dadri Uttar Pradesh 817 Paguthan Gujarat 654.73 Auraiya Uttar Pradesh 652 Jhanor-Gandhar Gujarat 648 Kawas Gujarat 645 Faridabad Haryana 430 Anta Rajasthan 413 Vemagiri Power Generation Ltd. Andhra Pradesh 388.5 Rajiv Gandhi CCPP Kayamkulam Kerala 350 37
  • 38. 7.2 Demand and Forecasts for India- The demand of natural gas has sharply increased in the last two decades at the global level. In India natural gas was first discovered off the west coast in 1970s, and today, it constitutes 10 % of India’s total energy consumption. Over the last decade it has gained importance as a source of energy and its share is slated to increase to about 25 % of the total energy basket by 2025-2030. In its Reference Scenario, the IEA expects Indian gas demand to increase to 94 billion cubic meters by 2020 and to 132 billion cubic meters by 2030, driven by the industrial and power generation sectors. This means anannual increase of 5.4 % – one of the highest in the world. In the 450 Scenario, demand by 2020 would be slightly lower (89 billion cubic meters), but by 2030 would almost remain at the same level as in the Reference Scenario – 132 billion cubic meters– as gas would be needed to displace coal. The latest available th Indian demand forecasts for the 11 Five- year plan (2007-12) show gas demand increasing by between 37 % and 58 % over that period and the power sector being the main driver for incremental gas demand (see Table below). 38
  • 39. Natural Gas Demand Projection Reference- http://ebookbrowse.com/rr07-23-india-natural-gas-indd-pdf-d132734147 7.3 Competitive demand from Fertilizer & City Gas Sector- Further, ICRA expects the prospects for the CGD business to remain good in the long term, given the under-penetration of city gas in India in the absence of adequate gas and transmission pipeline capacity. Natural gas allocation will invite Expression of Interest (EOI) from those interested, henceforth called applicant, in the use of the gas as advertised. It will also indicate the compression/transportation charges, as applicable, to each field in advance and clarify that these shall have to be borne by the applicant (s). EOIs shall be submitted in a sealed cover super scribing the priority sector they belong to. The sectors have been prioritized as given below. a. Gas-Based Urea fertilizer plants b. LPG Plants c. Power Plants supplying power to the grid/state utilities at regulated rates under PPA. d. CGD systems for domestic and transport sectors e. Steel/Refineries/Petrochemicals for feedstock purposes. f. CGD for industrial and Commercial Consumers. g. Any other customers for captive and merchant power, feedstock or fuel purpose. Allocation shall start from applicants highest in the priority as mentioned above. Further, only if the full gas demands of all applicants in the preceding sector are met, will the succeeding priority sector be taken up for allocation in that sector. Reference- http://www.petroleum.nic.in/ 39