2040 Socioeconomic Study - GLPC Presentation
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This presentation is supplemental to the 2040 Socioeconomic Study completed by Transport Studio at the request of the Valdosta-Lowndes Metropolitan Planning Organization. This was a special presentation to the Greater Lowndes Planning Commission. More information is on our website at www.sgrc.us/transportation.
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2040 Socioeconomic Study - GLPC Presentation
- 1. Valdosta-Lowndes MPO 2040 Socioeconomic Data Study Greater Lowndes Planning Commission October 28, 2013
- 2. Agenda • Why? • What? • How? • Results!
- 3. Why do you need socioeconomic data? • Planning for the future • The need for infrastructure improvements • The need for services • Federal and State regulations • MPO planning process • Qualified local government • State legislation has greatly reduced comprehensive planning requirements • • • • Data collection not required/unspecified Land use element required for communities with zoning VLMPO LRTP serves as transportation element Valdosta is only city required to have housing element
- 4. What kind of data? • Population, housing, and employment • Base and existing year data • 2010 base year • Today’s updates • 2040 horizon year projections • Interim year projections
- 5. Planning Data Transportation Comprehensive planning • Population and households • Housing • Gender • Age • Race • Educational attainment • Labor force • Income • Employment • • • • Service Retail Manufacturing Wholesale • Student enrollment
- 6. How? Data Collection and Projection Process • Base year data • Determine horizon year control totals • Distribute growth • Traffic analysis zones or TAZs • Census tracts • Census block groups • Verify and revise • Develop interim year data
- 8. Horizon Year Population – Lowndes County
- 9. Major Assumptions • Projections based on historic change • DCA used to provide projections based on 1980 to 2000 Census data • DCA projections assumed variables are independent of each other • Transport Studio developed new projections • Demographic characteristics will follow historic trend • Based on distribution in population • For example, racial composition • Based on share of all households • For example, housing types • Household and employment growth will follow population growth trend • Ratio of jobs to housing in region • Kinds of jobs in region
- 10. Housing Units Total Employment 2010 109,233 39,747 43,921 54,340 2040 149,290 60,686 63,473 76,150 Population Households Lowndes County Demographics Households and employment follow population growth trend in the region
- 11. Sample Population Data and Projection
- 12. Sample Housing Data and Projection
- 17. Land already developed -ornot suitable for development Future population and employment distribution Land suitable for development Developable land by Growth Area and other parameters
- 18. Distribute Growth to Zones, Tracts, Block Groups A. Growth Areas within zone boundary B. Suitable and available for development C. Developable acres within each Growth Area are assigned jobs or housing D. Developable acres with access to water or sewer service may be assigned jobs or housing A D B C
- 19. Population 2010
- 25. Findings • Identified Growth Areas will accommodate most growth by 2040 • Some households assigned to areas zoned residential with existing access to water or sewer service • Service jobs assigned to areas with existing access to water or sewer service based on zoning • Industrial Growth Areas contain more land than will be needed by 2040 for projected manufacturing and wholesale jobs
- 26. Recommendations • Consistent Census boundaries and traffic analysis zone boundaries • Update Census boundaries to reflect real life conditions if applicable • Adjust zone boundaries as needed • Evaluate Growth Areas during plan update(s) • Evaluate land use scenarios with VLMPO travel demand model • Evaluate policies and development patterns through comprehensive planning process • Continue coordination with MAFB and other major employers
- 27. Thank you Corey Hull, AICP 229-333-5277 chull@sgrc.us Whitney Shephard, PE, LEED AP 912-677-0430 whitney@transportstudio.net
Notas do Editor
- State regulations have greatly reduced planning requirements
- We collected projections from various sources and developed our own based on Census data
- For example, the percent of Caucasians will follow the historic change over time to 2040, rather than the Caucasian population growing over time without regard to the total population growth
- Multi race was not a choice before 2010.As locals develop their plans, this data may inform policies. White alone will be a numeric minority after 2025.