Nuclear power currently provides about 13.5% of the world's electricity and this share is projected to grow in the coming decades, according to the IAEA. While the Fukushima accident has led some countries to slow planned expansions, most regions like Asia expect continued growth in nuclear capacity. The IAEA estimates the number of operating reactors will increase by 90-350 by 2030 compared to current levels, with China and India remaining major centers of expansion. Factors like rising energy demand, climate change concerns, and energy security continue to support increased use of nuclear power.

1. Prospects of Global
Nuclear Power Development
Ukrainian Nuclear Forum-2012
Andrii Gritsevskyi
Planning and Economic Studies Section
IAEA
International Atomic Energy Agency

2. World Electricity Production Mix 2010
about 2%
13.5%
18%
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
67%
IAEA Source: RDS-1 2011

3. Nuclear share of electricity (2010)
IAEA Source: RDS-2 2011

4. Current status: March 2012
In operation
436 nuclear power
reactors [370 GW]
• USA 104
• France 58
• Japan 50
• Russia 33
• S. Korea 23
IAEA Source: PRIS

5. Operational Nuclear Power Reactors
IAEA

6. Power Reactor Information System
IAEA

7. Current status: March 2011
Under Construction
63 nuclear power reactors
• China 26
• Russia 10
• India 7
• Korea, Rep. 3
• Bulgaria, Japan, Pakistan,
Slovakia Ukraine 2
IAEA
Source: PRIS

8. Reference Data Series No. 1
Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is
an annual publication containing
estimates of energy, electricity and
nuclear power trends up to the year
2050.
• 31 editions – 31+ years of experience
• Major improvements over time
• 10 figures and 14 tables
• Referenced in about 1200 publications
http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/IAEABooks/8786/
Energy-Electricity-and-Nuclear-Power-Estimates-for-the-Period-up-to-2050-2011-Edition
IAEA

9. Nuclear Projections
• Projections of future energy and electricity demand
and the role of nuclear power are presented as low
and high estimates encompassing the inherent
uncertainties involved in projecting trends.
• The RDS-1 estimates should be viewed as very
general growth trends whose validity must be
constantly subjected to critical review.
IAEA

10. Nuclear Power Development in Different Regions
500 500
400 400
Western Europe Eastern Europe
300 300
GW(e)
GW(e)
500
200
200 200 170
141
400 123 126
108
North America 93 83 80 82 80
100 60 100 66
47
300
GW(e)
0 0
200
200 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
149
119 126 120
500
114 111 500
450
100
400
400
0 Far East
2010 2020 Year 2030 2050 300
GW(e)
300
Middle East & South Asia 255
GW(e)
220
200 180
140 200 164
130
100 81
53 50 100
500 30
13 22
5
500 0
400 0
Latin America 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
500 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
400
300 Africa
GW(e)
400
300
GW(e)
200
300 South East Asia & the Pacific
GW(e)
200
100 60
200
9 18 15
4 6 6 100
48
0
16 10
2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
2 2 2 5 100
48
0
IAEA 2010 2020 Year 2030 2050
0
6 5
2010 2020 Year 2030 2050

11. IAEA – LOW Projection
900
800
700
600 history
GW(e)
2005
500 2006
2007
400 2008
2009
300 2010
2011
200
100
IAEA
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

12. IAEA – HIGH Projection
900
800
700
600 history
GW(e)
2005
500 2006
2007
400 2008
2009
300 2010
2011
200
100
IAEA
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

13. IEA World Energy Outlook 2011:
Nuclear power capacity in the Low Nuclear
Case
Source, WEO 2011, IEA
IAEA

14. Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA
General Conference 2011
“Following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there
was speculation that the expansion in interest in
nuclear power seen in recent years could come
to an end. However, it is clear that there will, in
fact, be continuous and significant growth in the
use of nuclear power in the next two
decades, although at a slower rate than in our
previous projections.”
IAEA

15. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (1)
“… the Agency has updated its projections
concerning the outlook for nuclear power in the
wake of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. We now
expect the number of operating nuclear reactors
in the world to increase by about 90 by 2030, in
our low projection, or by around 350, in our high
projection, compared to the current total of 432
reactors.”
IAEA

16. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (2)
“Most of the growth is still expected to occur in
countries that already have operating nuclear
power plants, especially in Asia. China and India
will remain the main centres of expansion and
their nuclear power capacities by 2030 are
expected to be as projected before the
accident, after a temporary period of slower
growth.”
IAEA

17. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (3)
“The projected slowdown in global growth
reflects an accelerated phase-out of nuclear
power in Germany, some immediate shutdowns
and a government review of the planned
expansion in Japan, and temporary delays in
expansion in several other countries.”
IAEA

18. Introductory Statement to Board of Governors (4)
“In countries considering introducing nuclear
power, interest remains strong, despite
Fukushima Daiichi. Most of these countries are
proceeding with plans to add nuclear power to
their energy mix, although a few countries have
cancelled or revised their plans, while others
have taken a 'wait and see' approach.”
IAEA

19. Statement to Fifty-Fifth Regular Session of IAEA
General Conference 2011
“The factors that contributed to increasing
interest in nuclear power before the Fukushima
Daiichi accident have not changed: these include
increasing global demand for energy, as well as
concerns about climate change, volatile fossil
fuel prices and security of energy supply.”
IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano
IAEA

20. Thank you
IAEA 20