1. 2015-2016 Elections in Africa:
Between Anxieties and Hopes for Democracy on the Continent
Dieudonné N. TSHIYOYO, Regional Electoral Advisor, UNDP RSC Africa

2. Outline of the presentation
Democracy and Elections in Africa: Recent Trends, Gains and Challenges
Electoral Cycle
2015-2016 Elections in Africa
Concluding notes

3. Democracy and Elections in Africa (1)
Elections are instruments of democracy to the degree that they give the people influence over
policy making (Powell 2000).
The very purpose of elections is to achieve participatory governance without violence—through
political rather than physical competition.
One of the fundamental roles of elections is the evaluation of the incumbent government –
Citizens use elections to reward or punish the incumbents.
Democratization in Africa: Independence (1950-1960) – Military and/or monopartite regimes (1960-
1990) – End of the Cold War and democratic transitions (1990–2000).
Multi-party politics and elections.

4. Democracy and Elections in Africa (2)

5. Democracy and Elections in Africa (3)

6. Democracy and Elections in Africa (4)
Africa’s experience with electoral democracy has been mixed: progress has been made, but
challenges remain.
In the broadest of terms, Sub-Saharan Africa is certainly more democratic and holds more free
and fair elections today than several decades ago, but gains in some countries have been offset
by losses in others, while a number have remained democratically stagnant since independence.
To understand recent trends in African elections, it is helpful to examine individual countries
along with those others that have shared similar experiences and will thus face similar challenges
and opportunities in the coming years.
These various electoral experiences can serve as positive examples or critical warnings to other
countries in Africa and can help the international community to more effectively engage with
elections across Africa by learning from past failures and successes.

7. Democracy and Elections in Africa (5)

8. Electoral Cycle

9. Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (1)
South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Zambia and Ghana, success stories. Risk of reversal? Mali
effect!!!
Positive changes in a number of countries – Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Togo, and Zimbabwe – came
as a result of elections, though they were often flawed or overshadowed by erosion on other
issues.
KENYA
The March 2014 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were generally deemed more credible
than the previous polls in December 2007, despite serious tabulation problems and many disputed
ballots.
A formal challenge to the presidential victory of Uhuru Kenyatta by runner-up Raila Odinga was
addressed in the courts, rather than through ethnic clashes as in 2007–2008.
ZIMBABWE
Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF secured victory in the July 2013 national elections.
After using brutal violence to retain the presidency in the 2008, Mugabe and his political allies took
a more subtle approach in 2013, in shaping an uneven playing field well before election day.
MDC weakness and internal struggle

10. Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (2)
MALI
Military coup in March 2012, a month just the presidential poll and a rebellion in the north.
Combined with security improvements in the northern region, the 2013 elections helped the
country along the path to recover.
ZAMBIA
Two sick presidents dying in office in the last decades (Levy Mwanawasa and Michael Sata)
Capacity of the Electoral Commission to organize the two presidential by-elections (October
2008 and January 2015) within the constitutional framework.
Change of political coalitions/parties: Rupiah Banda – Michael Sata – Edgard Lungu
Surviving former president: Kenneth Kaunda

11. Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (3)

12. 2015 Elections in Africa (1)
Zambia Presidential By-Election 20 January 2015
Lesotho General Elections 28 February 2015
Togo Presidential Elections 05 March 2015
Egypt Parliamentary Elections (Phase 1) 22-23 March 2015
Parliamentary Elections (Phase 2) 25-27 April 2015
Nigeria President, House of Representatives Senate 28 March 2015 (?)
State Assemblies, State Governors Local 11 April 2015
Libya Constitutional Referendum March 2015
Sudan President, National Assembly, State Local 02 April 2015
Tanzania Constitutional Referendum 30 April 2015
President, National Assembly, Zanzibar Local October 2015
Ethiopia House of People's Representatives Regional Assemblies 24 May 2015
Burundi National Assembly Local 26 May 2015
Presidential Elections – 1st Round 26 June 2015
Presidential Elections – 2nd Round 27 July 2015
Senate (indirect) 17 July 2015
Mauritius Parliamentary Elections May 2015

13. 2015 Elections in Africa (2)
South Sudan President, National Legislative Assembly Local 9? 30? June (July?) 2015
Burkina Faso President, National Assembly Local Elections 11 October 2015
Cote d'Ivoire Presidential Elections October 2015
CAR Constitutional referendum? 2015
President Parliamentary Elections July 2015
Chad Parliamentary Elections September? 2015
Guinea Presidential Elections June? November? 2015
Libya Presidential Elections 2015?
Algeria Council of the Nation (indirect) Half December 2015

14. 2016 Elections in Africa
Benin Presidential Elections (March 2016)
Chad Presidential Elections (April 2016)
Cote d'Ivoire Parliamentary Elections (December 2016)
CAR Parliamentary Elections
DRC Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
Ghana Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
Morocco Parliamentary Elections
Niger Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
Rwanda Parliamentary Elections
Somalia General Elections
Uganda General Elections

15. Democracy and Elections in Ethiopia
Lessons learnt from fighting against the military socialist regime
Revolutionary democracy - political ideology of EPRDF – Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
(Ethiopia is a developed, collectivist society in which the individual is totally committed to the common,
collective good)
Overwhelming victory of EPRDF in the 2010 general elections, after the 2005 loss in a national election in Addis
Ababa
Defeat of the opposition parties and the return to a dominant-party state (neutralization of dissent?) – The
preeminence of a dominant-party state does not necessarily imply a lack of dissent. The fact that the opposition
parties managed to garner nearly 40 percent of the vote in the capital in 2010 reveals that dissent persists in
Addis Ababa
Unlike other elections in which the ruling party secured an overwhelming victory, in 2010 opposition parties did
not boycott the electoral process. When opposition parties contested the elections of 2000 and 2005, the EPRDF
had lost ground in the city.
The significance of the 2010 national election lies not only in the remarkable election results, but also in the way
that political space in the capital city was closed down, and the apparent reversal of the opposition’s fortunes as
compared to the previous election, when it gained increased support in the cities
Ties between political mobilization and the delivery of services to those at the bottom of urban society
Delivering development and basic services could be used as a means to generate and mobilize support.
Understanding the grassroots politics of the Ethiopian state is important, as the uncontested victory of the
EPRDF in local elections in April 2013 brought to the surface a number of important continuities in political
practice despite the death of PM Meles Zenawi in August 2012.

16. 2015-2016 Elections in Africa – Challenges
The incumbency effect
Controversial constitutional and legal reforms – ill-timed and tailored-made (presidential terms
limit, discriminatory and biased electoral systems)
Periodicity of elections (compliance to constitutional and legal timeframes)
Terrorism: Libya domino effect, Egypt, Somalia, Mali, Eritrea, Boko Haram (Nigeria, Chad,
Cameroon, Niger)
Civil war: South Sudan, DRC, CAR
Ebola: West Africa (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and West Africa?)
Cost of elections – International electoral assistance (UN, UNDP – increasing competition from
other actors)
Use of technologies and the issue of sustainability (Biometric VR, electronic vote…)
High risk of violent crisis: the magnitude of the risk associated with each of the upcoming crucial
elections on the continent
Regional and sub-regional political and security dynamics
Laxity on local elections vs. elections at the national levels

17. The incumbency effect

18. Civil war

19. Concluding notes
Elections at the national level, especially presidential polls, have come to represent a critical
moment for peace and political stability, and consequentially for economic and social
progress.
Elections serve as a test for the consolidation of the practice and culture of democracy in
each of the countries and, by the same token, the whole African continent.
Gains yes, yet challenges and risk of reversal.

20. Thank you
Merci beaucoup