Today's wildfires are far outside the historic range of variability, with lasting consequences for our forests and open lands. Understanding the three fundamental forces governing fire behavior - fuel, topography, and weather - remains key to predicting how fires may behave in coming decades.
1. Wildfires past, present,
and future
Donald Falk
Associate Professor
School of Natural Resources
University of Arizona
12 April 2017
UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
How new research can help fire-management
efforts to protect lives and property
4. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
We know from hundreds of
studies using tree rings,
charcoal, and other methods
that low-severity wildfires were
common throughout the US
5. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
But today’s wildfires
are far outside the
range of variability
• More than 2000 square
miles burned in Texas,
Oklahoma, and Kansas in
2017
• Priceless old forests are
being lost and replaced by
less valuable ecosystems
• Because of warming
climate, many forests are
not recovering
• Combined with drought
and insects, more than
100 million dead trees in
the Sierra Nevada
6. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
Aug, 2011, Las Conchas Fire, NM. Photo Craig Allen, USGS
..with lasting consequences for our forests and
open lands.
11. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
Three fundamental forces
govern fire behavior
Understanding these
factors is key to
predicting how fires
may behave in coming
decades
12. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
We examined how a warming climate
will affect area burned
Many parts of the western US may see 8-9x area
burned annually by mid-century
13. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
Potential effects of wildfires on Ft.
Huachuca (US Army) and Sierra Vista, AZ
Biggest threats to
the Base and city
are not direct fire
impacts, but
post-fire flooding
and debris flows
on burned
landscapes
14. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES
So the evidence shows:
Wildland fire is a natural process in
American forests and globally.
Warming climate is leading to longer fire
seasons, more severe fires, and greater
area burned
We can learn to live
with fire if we continue
the research to
understand it and
policies to manage it.