Wildland fires are exceedingly complex phenomena. No human can integrate all the interacting factors in real-time. More sophisticated tools are needed that capture interactions between the fire and the local atmosphere. Research is yielding emerging wildfire decision support technologies that are primed to be transitioned to operations.

1. Decision Support for Wildland Fire
Management
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
April 12, 2017
William P. Mahoney
Interim Director, Research Applications Laboratory
UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
How new research can help
firefighting protect lives and property

2. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Problem to Address
Wildland fires are exceedingly
complex phenomena
• Humans cannot integrate all the
interacting factors in real-time
• More sophisticated tools are needed
that capture interactions between the
fire and local atmosphere

3. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Wildland Fire Complexity
Wildland fires generate extreme fire
behaviors such as:
• Fire whirls and ‘firenadoes’
• Fire winds blowing 10 times stronger
than ambient winds
• Flames bursting ahead of the fire line
• Fire blow-ups and firestorms
• Pyrocumulus clouds
• Fire splitting and merging
These all result from dynamic interactions
between a fire and its environment.
Source: David McNew/Getty Images

4. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Wildland Fire Weather – Policy Context
June 2005 – WGA Resolution 05-04 for
Improved coordination of existing
wildland fire research efforts
June 2007 – Office of Federal Coordinator
(OFCM) Report: “National Wildland Fire
Weather: A Summary of User Needs and
Issues”
May 2011 – OFCM Report: “Wildland Fire
Weather: Multi-Agency Portfolio of
Current and In-Development Capabilities
to Support User Needs”
Critical Focus Area: Modeling, Predictions and Data

5. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Fire Behavior Prediction
Data Needs
• Local weather observations
– Wind direction and speed
– Wind gustiness
– Temperature
– Humidity
– Precipitation amount and type
• Local weather prediction data
• Up to date fuel data and local fuel
condition.
• Vegetation state (green, dry, etc.)
• High resolution topography information

6. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Fire Behavior Prediction -
Many Data Sources
• Standard and Remote Automated Weather Station
(RAWS) – (interagency)
• NWS weather prediction models (GFS, NAM, HRRR)
• DOI & USFS fuel datasets (LANDFIRE)
• USGS digital elevation models
• Multi-spectral: Landsat, VIIRS, MODIS (NASA)
• GOES-R series lightning, IR (NOAA)
• Aircraft and UAS visible and multi-spectral data
Elko County, NV
US Forest Service and US Dept. of Interior
DEM – Sierra Nevada
NASA - Landsat

7. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Wildland Fire Research
Contributions
• Forest and rangeland ecology
• Combustion physics & dynamics
• Fuel data development
• Numerical weather prediction
• Land surface prediction
• Remote and in situ sensing
• Coupled modeling systems
• Data assimilation
• Computer science
To understand fire behavior fundamentals…
Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM
The “universal” fire shape and fire whirls
evolve from fire-atmosphere interactions.

8. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Wildland Fire Behavior
Prediction Technology – Uses
Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM
• Management and planning of individual fires
• Resource planning for regional operations and asset management
• Support for prescribed fire planning and execution
• Forest and rangeland management
• Evaluating smoke impacts, air quality, health advisory notification
• Firefighter safety & training
• Forensic evaluations of fire ignition sources
• Fire aviation weather hazard guidance (wind shear, turbulence)
Decision support for:

9. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Bringing It All Together
Taking advantage of
these important data
sources and
integrating these
research areas
provides tremendous
opportunities to
advance wildland fire
management.
Yarnell Hill Fire
Yarnell, AZ, 6/30/13
Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM
Wildfire simulation illustrating the dramatic effects of changing surface
winds on fire behavior

10. UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:
Overcoming The Technology
“Valley of Death”
The “Valley if Death” is
where good research
goes to die because of
the complexity of the
transition process and
lack of funding
opportunities.
Emerging wildfire
decision support
technologies are
primed to be
transitioned to
operations.
Operational Use
Source: ieeecomputingsociety.org