Hypothesis Driven Development is an approach that helps organisations to implement ideas that have a higher probability of success when fully formed and in the market. Through testing our assumptions and measuring whether the expected outcome of our idea has the potential to be achieved, we begin down the path of building the right thing. We also begin to dismantle the myth that people with the most experience have the best ideas, and instead we start to create an environment where all ideas are equal until backed up by data. This presentation discusses the value of dismantling assumed knowledge within your organisation and look at how Hypothesis Driven Development can increase your likelihood of building feasible, valuable, usable and delightful products and services.

1. TAKING A HYPOTHESIS
DRIVEN APPROACH
Nicola Boyle & Rob Harrison
1

2. 2
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions
Assumptions

3. 3
Us.

4. 4
You.

5. RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo

6. CREATING A HYPOTHESIS
6
We believe that <this change>
Will result in <this outcome>.
We will know we have succeeded when
<we see change in X metric>.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

7. SKYPE FOR STAFF
7
We believe that enabling Skype functionality to staff
Will result in less staff travel and quicker turnaround
times on decision making.
We will know we have succeeded when we see that the
flights taken by staff, for face to face meetings, have been
reduced by 5%.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

8. MVP - THE HYPOTHESIS’S BEST FRIEND
8
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

9. METRICS THAT MATTER
9
Acquisition
Activation
Retention
Revenue
Referral
AARRR “PIRATE”
FUNNEL METRICS
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
- Dave McClure
Acquisition - Number of people who visit your
service
Activation - Number of people who have a good
initial response
Retention - Number of people who come back for
more
Revenue - Number of people from the cohort
who engage in revenue-creating
activity
Referral - Number of people from the cohort
who refers other users

10. ITERATE TO VALIDATE
10
THE VALIDATED
LEARNING LOOP
• REDUCED RISK & UNCERTAINTY
• MORE VALUE SOONER
• LAYER-IN COMPLEXITY
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

11. RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo

12. CREATE AN
INNOVATION CULTURE
12
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

13. DISRUPTS
13
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
ACCEPT OR CANCELPHONE, TEXT, EMAIL OR
NOTIFICATION
MANAGE BOOKING ONLINE

14. FROM REQUIREMENTS TO HYPOTHESES
14
We believe allowing passengers to change their flight
within a seven day period
Will result in a better customer experience as
passengers will not have to call to manage their booking.
We will know we have succeeded when 10% of
customers select a new flight within the seven day period.
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes
SEVEN DAY CHANGE
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

15. BUILD AN MVP
15
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
THREE DAY CHANGE
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes

16. CHECK THE RESULTS
16
• Most passengers accepted new flight.
• Some passengers changed on day or cancelled.
• Very few passengers changed to next day and
fewer changed on the third day.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes

17. CONTINUE, PIVOT, STOP
17
• Cost to build seven day change deemed not
worth the ROI.
• Seven day change feature stopped.
• Team able to pick up more valuable feature.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
Create
hypothesis
Design and
run
experiment
Study results
Evolve model
and
implement
changes

18. FROM DONE TO MONITORING
18
Team walls and portfolio wall now have
Monitoring instead of Done.
Definition of done to move out of monitoring
column is ‘Measure outcome’
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

19. 19
BECOME A
DATA-LED BUSINESS
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

20. BUILD MEASUREMENT IN
20
“Without data you’re just another person with an opinion”
- W. Edwards Deming
-
• Agreed before development.
• An acceptance criteria for every story.
• Part of the way of working - it’s not done
until you’ve studied the results and acted
on them.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

21. ISOLATE CHANGE
21
We believe providing the ability to add an extra bag prior to payment only
Will result in increased customer satisfaction and speed to complete bookings.
We will know we have succeeded when:
• There is reduction in complaints from customers related to overloading of
information;
• Decrease in time to complete a booking (from search to payment);
• There is no statistically significant drop-off in customers adding extra bags.
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
ADD EXTRA BAGS

22. RETWEET
I’ll try a
#HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus
@nicolaboyle27
@remoterobbo

23. TRANSFORM YOUR
ORGANISATION
23
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

24. GUILD WORKSHOP
24
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
TRAINING BUSINESS ANALYSTS ON
HYPOTHESIS DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT
We believe running a one hour session where we
introduce the concept, core theory and have participants
build a hypothesis based on their existing project
Will result in an increase in attendees applying a
hypothesis driven approach in their teams.
We will know we have succeeded when the average
score for attendees is at least a three on a self-
assessment scale.

25. MEASURING SUCCESS
25
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
1. I know nothing about hypothesis driven development.
2. I know a little, but not how to apply it.
3. I could work in a team using it.
4. I could apply the concepts and explain it to others.
5. Move over, I will be presenting this session.
SELF-ASSESSMENT

26. SECOND TIME RUNNING THE SESSION
PIVOT
26
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”
We believe running a ninety minute session where we
introduce the concept, core theory and have participants
build a hypothesis based on a fictional project
Will result in an increase in attendees applying a
hypothesis driven approach in their teams.
We will know we have succeeded when the average
score for attendees is at least a three on a self-
assessment scale.

27. 27
I have not failed. I’ve just
found 10,000 ways that
don’t work.
— Thomas A. Edison

28. RESOURCES
28
The Lean Startup
- Eric Ries
Entrepreneur/Author
- Barry O’Reilly
The Lean Enterprise
- Jez Humble, Joanne
Molesky and Barry O’Reilly
Retweet: “I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach #AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @remoterobbo”

29. THANK YOU
nboyle@thoughtworks.com
robert.harrison@airnz.co.nz
“I’ll try a #HypothesisDrivenApproach
#AgileAus @nicolaboyle27 @Remoterobbo”