The document discusses how mobile device adoption is outpacing previous technologies and connecting more of the world. It notes that smart device adoption is growing 10x faster than the 1980s PC revolution. This high rate of adoption is enabled by factors like cheaper devices, mobile apps, cloud computing, and leapfrog technologies that allow areas to adopt modern systems without older intermediary steps. This convergence of trends is creating a vast new platform of opportunity through connectivity, information access, and new models for education and employment on a global scale.
Leapfrog Technologies: major trends research notes
1. The rate of iOS and Android device adoption has surpassed that of any consumer
technology in history. Compared to recent technologies, smart device adoption is
being adopted 10X faster than that of the 80s PC revolution, 2X faster than that of
90s Internet Boom and 3X faster than that of recent social network adoption.
Mobile Technology Connects The World
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2. Convergence of 10 Major Trends
Minimal &
Diminishing
Startup Costs
All Location Independent
Social
Networks
Easier Access
To Capital
Freelance &
Offshoring
Innovation Ecosystem
Access
To
Scientific, Engin
eering &
Manufacturing
Tools
Big Data
Artificial
Intelligence
Leapfrog
Technologies
Collaborative
Culture
Risk
Management
Innovation Ecosystem
• Growing Internet Population
• 50% growth within 3 years
• Mobile Aps, Devices, Broadband
• Android, Smart Phones, Tablets
• An Opportunity Platform
• Education, Employment
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3. 80% of the World Lives on Less Than $10
per Day
• 1.37 billion people live on less than $1.25 a day
• 2.56 billion live on less than $2 a day.
• 5.05 billion people (more than 80 percent of the world's
population) live on less than $10 a day.
~Sources: World Bank & CIA World Fact Book
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4. By 2015 The Internet Population Will Have
Increased by 50%
World Population
7,048,602,366
Number On The Internet 2011
2,080,000 (30.3%)
Number On The Internet by 2015
3 Billion = 50% Increase / 3 Years
~Sources: 2012 Internet World Stats & United Nation & Cisco Growth Forecast
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5. LeapFrog Technologies
"Leapfrogging" is the notion that areas which have poorly-developed technology
or economic bases can move themselves forward rapidly through the adoption
of modern systems without going through intermediary steps (hopping over
legacy technology).
The best-known example of leapfrogging is the adoption of mobile phones in the
developing world.
It's easier and faster to put in cellular towers in rural and remote areas than to put in
land lines, and as a result, cellular use is exploding
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6. Leapfrogging With Android
“Huawei aiming to sell 50 million to 60
million smartphones this year up from
20 million in 2011.”
~Source: Mobile World: Huawei Aims
To Triple Smartphone Sales
Wall Street Journal Online February 27, 2012
Africa Might Just Skip the Entire PC Revolution
Tim Worstall, August 17, 2011
350,000+ Kenyans have purchased Huawei’s $80
Android-based smartphone in a country where 40%
of the population lives on less than $2 per day
“A sufficiently large number of these phones have been sold that we’re seeing local
apps for local needs being developed: the start of a self-reinforcing process.”
“The IDEOS’s success in this market firmly establishes the
open source Android as the smartphone of the people and
demonstrates how unrelenting upswings in price-
performance can jumpstart the spread of liberating
technologies. Thanks to low-cost Androids, the
geographically-untethered smartphone is here to
stay, and it simply cannot be stopped.”
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7. 15,000 New Apps Released Per Week
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Around 15,000 New Applications Are Released Each Week
(and the number is growing)
“According to Mobilewalla, in a fairly quiet 14 days before the release of app No.
1,000,000, an average of 543 apps were released each day for Android-based devices,
and an average of 745 apps hit the market daily for the iPhone, iPad and iTouch. The
total for the two weeks across the Apple, Android, BlackBerry
and Windows platforms was 20,738.”
One Million Mobile Apps, and Counting at a Fast Pace
By SHELLY FREIERMAN Published: December 11, 2011
15,000 Apps Released per Week Works Out To:
• 2,143 per day
• 89 per hour
• 1.5 per minute
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8. Market Estimates Vary…
• MarketsAndMarkets expects the global mobile applications
market to be worth $25.0 billion in 2015
~Source: World Mobile Applications Market Advanced technologies, Global Forecast (2010 2015)
• IDC predicts app revenues will surpass $35 billion in 2014
~Source: Worldwide and U.S. Mobile Applications, Storefronts, and Developer 2010–2014 Forecast and Year End 2010 Vendor Shares:
The appification“ of Everything? Dec 2010
• Canalys expects that app store revenue will reach $36.7
billion by 2015 ~Source: Canalys Mobile App Store Analysis forecast, June 2011
• Gartner predicts application stores are creating a revenue
opportunity that will reach $58 billion in 2014
~Source: Forecast: Mobile Application Stores, Worldwide, 2008-2014, December 2010
But the Mobile Apps Market is Going To Be Big
• Forrester Research estimates an app market of $37 billion in
2015 ~Source: Mobile App Internet Recasts Software and Services Market, Forrester Research 2011
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9. Tablet Computers: Fastest Ramping Device
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“We believe that we are in the
early innings of the mobile
computing cycle – the largest
in the history of computing.”
“By the end of 2020, we predict
that 10 billion mobile
internet devices will be in
use, up from 2 billion today.”
~Source: Morgan Stanley Research “Tablet Demand and Disruption: Mobile Users Come of Age” Feb 14, 2011
“Like smartphones over the past
two years, tablet growth is
likely to surprise to the upside,
in our view, pulling with it market
leaders and challenging legacy
technology.”
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10. 10
2015 Tablets To Drive $8.1 B in App Sales
Sarah Rotman Epps, an analyst
with Forrester who specializes in
tablet computers estimates: “the
tablet market is set to
generate a large portion of
app purchases in the coming
years.”
“Ms. Epps says tablet devices
alone will generate $8.1
billion in app sales globally
by 2015. In 2010, mobile apps
on tablets generated $300
million in sales.”
Mobile App Revenue to Reach $38 Billion by 2015, Report Predicts
By Nick Bilton February 28, 2011
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11. Strong International Demand For Tablets
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“…international demand could be materially higher than some expect.”
~Source: Morgan Stanley Research “Tablet Demand and Disruption: Mobile Users Come of Age” Feb 14, 2011
“Tablets bridge the gap between
traditional PCs and smartphones.
They combine a more PClike
computing and display experience
with the mobility, connectivity, and
touch optimization of smartphones.”
“Importantly, in addition to many
cloud-based services, tablets
gain access to application stores
that already contain hundreds of
thousands of smartphone
applications and a growing list of
tablet-optimized applications.”
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12. $35 Tablet Computer
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Hands On: India’s $35 Aakash Android
tablet lands in America 10/26/2011
“…with the addition of cheap headphones, and an equally
cheap microphone, the owner can make calls on Skype
and has the potential to communicate with people
around the world.”
“The Aakash Tablet is an example of a “leapfrog
technology,” a concept where the latest
innovations jump directly into areas where legacy
technologies never penetrated. Tens of millions of
people throughout India who never had access to
a landline phone now walk around with cell
phones in their pocket.”
“Now imagine the educational potential of the world’s
lowest-cost tablet being unleashed to hundreds of
millions of Indians eager to join the world economy. ”
Note: The Aakash tablet is regularly priced at around$75 but is offered to students at a 50% discount or $35.
13. Cloud Computing Enables Mobile
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Mobile Cloud Adoption
~Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016 Published February 14, 2012
• Global mobile data traffic grew 2.3-fold in
2011, more than doubling for the fourth year
in a row.
• Mobile Data Traffic Will Double Again in 2012
• Smartphone usage nearly tripled in 2011
• Number of mobile-connected devices will
exceed the world’s population in 2012
• Over 10 billion mobile-connected devices in
2016
Cloud applications and services allow mobile users to overcome the memory capacity and
processing power limitations of mobile devices.
Suneet Singh Tuli CEO of DataWind developer of
the $35 Aakash tablet computer
• Mobile-connected tablets will generate almost as much traffic in 2016 as the entire
global mobile network in 2012. OmniPresent Media 2013
14. 14
Mobile Data Traffic Is Exploding: 78% CAGR
~Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update, 2011–2016 Published February 14, 2012
• Middle East and Africa will experience the highest mobile data traffic Compound
Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 104%, increasing 36-fold.
• Asia Pacific will have the second highest CAGR of 84%, increasing 21-fold
• The emerging market regions of Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America will
have CAGRs of 83% and 79% respectively
15. Leapfrog Technologies Enable “This Great
Inflection” of Innovation
OP-ED COLUMNIST
The Last Person
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN Published: November 12, 2011
“We’re at the start of a nonlinear move in innovation thanks to the hyper
connecting of the world — through social media, mobile/wireless devices
and cloud computing — which is putting cheap innovation devices into the
hands of so many more people, enabling them to collaborate on invention
in so many new ways. This Great Inflection will be an opportunity and a challenge
for every worker and company because we’re going to see more and more product
“price points” broken in big ways.”
“The Aakash ($35 Tablet Computer) is a ray of hope that India can leverage technology to
get more of its 220 million students enough tools to escape poverty and poor
teaching”
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16. Bridging the Digital Divide
The coming 5 billion seek economic opportunity and
connecting to the Internet is
Once basic necessities are met, people naturally look
to
The Coming 5 Billion Internet Users Want Economic Opportunities
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17. Leapfrog Technologies Create A Platform of
Opportunity
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• Mobile devices
• Applications
• Faster data speeds
• Expanding and diversifying online opportunities
A virtuous, self-reinforcing platform of opportunity for billions of people.
OmniPresent Media 2013
18. Online Learning
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“The scientists, Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller, taught free Web-based courses
through Stanford last year that reached more than 100,000 students.”
“Last fall a course in artificial intelligence taught by Sebastian Thrun, then at
Stanford, and Google’s director of research, Peter Norvig, attracted more than
160,000 students from 190 countries.”
Online Education Venture Lures Cash Infusion and Deals With 5 Top Universities
By JOHN MARKOFF Published: April 18, 2012
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21. Everything Is Pulled Into The Digital Vortex
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Technology is the lingua franca of economic opportunity in developing economies
22. The Cambrian Cloud
Inflection Points
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• 80% of the world survives on less than $10 per day
• 5 billion people have yet to come online.
• Current Internet population will increase by 50% within 3 years.
• Low cost technologies create a virtuous circle of innovation and opportunity
• Cloud-based services and downloadable applications reduce device
requirements, enabling low-cost devices to access remotely hosted and tailored
resources and services
• Mobile applications market is rapidly evolving to take advantage of growing regional
opportunities in a positive reinforcing loop
• Rate of global connectivity and leapfrog technology adoption will increase
• Amount of global data is exploding and a growing percentage will be mobile driven
• Mobile leapfrog technologies connect the world and provide a platform of opportunity
for information, education and improved economic status
• Net result: We are in the early stages of a transformative period which greatly expands
the globally connected network and enlarges both opportunity and talent pools
Growth & Connectivity of Internet Population