Passive Building, Carbon and Climate

1. Passive
building,
Carbon,
&
Climate
Sean
Penrith
Execu:ve
Director
The
Climate
Trust
8th
Annual
North
American
Passive
House
Conference
October
17,
2013
PiHsburgh,
Pennsylvania

2. The
Climate
Trust
•
Established
in
1997
•
Manage
over
$20M
of
carbon
funding
•
Operate
in
10
diverse
project
sectors
•
Projects
in
nine
states
and
two
countries
•
Compliance
program
examples
–
OR,
WA,
MT,
MA,
CA
•
Voluntary
program
examples
–
NW
Natural
Smart
Energy
–
Colorado
Carbon
Fund
Mission:
To
provide
exper:se,
financing,
and
inspira:on
to
accelerate
innova:ve
climate
solu:ons
that
endure

3. • Carbon
Management
– Expand
What
we
do…..
investment
in
project
types
an:cipated
in
policies
– Pilot
new
methodologies
– Effec:vely
aggregate
projects
– Remove
upfront
financing
and
other
barriers
– Develop
compliance
porWolios
for
u:li:es
• Climate
Services
– Design,
finance
and
implement
climate
ac:on
plans
– Assist
with
project
developer
finance
– Act
as
a
Buyer’s
Agent
for
CSR
firms
• Policies
&
Standards
– Share
tangible
lessons
learned
and
experience
to
help
improve
policies,
rulemaking,
&
standards
Carbon
Management
Policies
&
Standards
Climate
Services

4. Human
induced
global
warming
has
emerged
as
the
defining
challenge
of
the
21st
century.

5. For
the
first
?me
in
3
million
years
Mauna
Loa
monitoring
sta:on
,
HI
May
9,
2013:
Concentra:on
of
carbon
dioxide
in
earth’s
atmosphere
crossed
the
400
parts
per
million
threshold

6. Climate
Change
• Currently
net
energy
uptake
by
earth
causes
heat
energy
storage
and
rising
global
temperatures
• 90%
of
this
excess
heat
is
stored
in
oceans
• 30%
of
CO2
absorbed
by
oceans

7. Implica?ons
of
stress
nexus
o Economic
&
demographic
power
shibing
to
emerging
markets
o Energy
&
fuel
–
increased
demand
&
supply
uncertainty
o Water
demand
es:mated
to
exceed
supply
by
40%
in
2030
o Popula:on
will
be
8.4
billion
by
2032
impac:ng
resources
o Urban
areas
will
house
more
people
than
rural
areas
by
2030
impac:ng
infrastructure
&
resources;
o Food
prices
to
increase
70%
-­‐
90%
by
2030,
affected
by
popula:on
growth,
water
scarcity,
&
deforesta:on

8. AR5
• 830
expert
authors
• 85
countries
• Meteorology
• Physics
• Ecology
• Engineering
• Social
sciences
• Economics
• Oceanography
• Sta:s:cs

9. Conclusion:
To
achieve
a
66%
chance
of
limi:ng
warming
to
2°C,
emissions
need
to
be
capped
at
1,000
gigatons
(measured
from
start
of
industrial
age)

10. We
had
emiFed
half
of
this
already
by
2011

11. Extent
of
ice
and
snow
decreasing,
and
a
nearly
ice-­‐free
Arc:c
in
summer
by
2050;

12. Weather
is
changing

13. Current
rate
of
emissions
are
projected
to
cause
rise
2.6
–
4.8
°C
globally
&
sea
level
rise
of
0.45-­‐0.82m
as
oceans
warm

14. Despite
slowdown
due
to
natural
factors,
human
ac:vity
is
influencing
emissions
and
related
rise
in
global
temperatures;

15. Timeline
of
Atmospheric
Concentra?ons

16. Each
of
the
last
3
decades
has
been
successively
hoHer
than
any
other
preceding
decade
since
1850

17. AR5:
95%
certain
we
have
been
the
dominant
cause
for
warming
since
1950s

18. Increase
in
CO2
due
to
burning
fossil
fuels
and
land-­‐use
changes

19. Electricity
Consump:on

20. Energy
Consump:on

21. Es:mates
of
buildings’
emissions
as
a
percentage
of
total
“What
percentage
of
CO2
emissions
do
you
think
buildings
give
rise
to
–
directly
and
indirectly?“

25. The
building
sector
must
lead

27. Mee:ng
the
Challenge

28. 2030
Challenge
Impacts

29. Aggressively
implemen?ng
building
codes
that
meet
the
2030
Challenge
targets
will
drama?cally
reduce
CO2
emissions
and
transform
the
Building
Sector
into
a
central
market
sector
for
the
solu?on
to
climate
change.

30. Reducing
energy
demand
through
building
efficiency
is
significantly
cheaper
than
producing
the
same
amount
of
energy
by
coal
or
nuclear
power.

31. Passive
building
pathway
2030
Challenge
targets:
sustainable
design,
on-­‐site
RE
and/or
purchasing
RE
or
RECs*
Passive
building
achieves
IPCC
carbon
reduc:on
target
of
80%
below
‘90
levels

32. “Let
me
put
that
into
perspec:ve:
900
billion
square
feet
is
an
area
equal
to
60
%
of
the
en:re
building
stock
of
the
world.
That
is
how
much
we
will
build
by
2030.
We
will
essen:ally
rebuild
the
world
in
the
next
two
decades.
That
is
a
huge
opportunity
if
we
do
it
right.”
–
Ed
Mazria,
Architecture
2030

33. The
scale
of
the
building
energy
challenge

34. Building
energy
forecasts

35. Energy
efficiency
contributed
63
exajoules
(EJ)
(1400
Mtoe)
of
avoided
energy
use
in
2010
>>
Larger
than
the
supply
of
oil
(43
EJ),
electricity
or
natural
gas
(22
EJ
each)

36. Two
thirds
of
the
economic
poten:al
to
improve
energy
efficiency
remains
untapped
in
the
period
to
2035

37. Movement:
Linking
EE
&
CO2
reduc?ons
Clean
Energy
Campus
Campaign
•
Campuses
cer:fy
their
“beyond
business
as
usual”
GHG
reduc:ons
against
these
new
methodologies
by
mee:ng
specific
performance
benchmarks
and
other
eligibility
criteria.
•
Chevrolet
pays
campuses
for
these
cer:fied
reduc:ons
and
permanently
re:res
them
to
benefit
the
climate.
Campus
Value:
•
Pilot
projects
say
funding
is
strategic
to
realiza:on
of
GHG
performances
in
LEED
buildings
and/or
across
their
campuses.
•
Funding
can
contribute
a
5-­‐25%
return
on
incremental
capital
needed
to
achieve
leading-­‐edge
clean
energy
efficiency
performance.

38. Carbon
Crossroads

39. The
Pathway
to
Two
Degrees
C
• We
need
to
spend
our
carbon
budget
wisely
of
we
are
to
meet
the
target
• If
we
fail
to
follow
this
path,
we
will
exceed
our
budget
between
2050
-­‐
2070

40. Poli:cal
will.

41. We
must
make
it!

42. Thank
you.
Sean
Penrith
spenrith@climatetrust.org
The
Climate
Trust
Portland,
Oregon