Is digital disruption coming to the university near you?
1. XXXX
e-‐learning
Presenta.on
by
Ta.ana
Zalan,
PhD
Associate
Professor
–
Management,
American
University
in
Dubai
tzalan@aud.edu
Linkedin
page
1
March
2016
2. Is
digital
disrup.on
coming
to
the
university
near
you?
Presenta.on
by
Ta.ana
Zalan,
MA,
MBA,
PhD,
AFAIM
Associate
Professor
–
Management,
American
University
in
Dubai
tzalan@aud.edu
1
March
2016,
AUD,
Dubai
3. A
VERY
Short
Quiz
• The
tradi.onal
university
will
disappear
in
a
decade.
True
or
False?
• MOOC
is
an
acronym
which
means….
• Coursera
is
…(pick
as
many
as
are
applicable)
A. A
university
B. An
online
pla[orm
C. A
popular
management
book
D. Same
as
Blackboard
E. An
edtech
company
F. None
of
the
above
• A
flipped
classroom
is
….
(pick
as
many
are
applicable)
A. A
classroom
without
the
professor
B. A
classroom
without
the
students
C. A
classroom
without
the
lecture
D. A
classroom
where
students
do
pre-‐readings
before
class
and
discuss
the
material
in
class
E. A
classroom
where
the
students
do
not
do
any
work
• E-‐learning
is
inferior
to
face-‐to-‐face
learning.
True
or
False?
3
4. My
long
online
journey
• Started
in
academia
in
the
early
2000s,
on
comple.on
of
my
PhD
in
interna.onal
strategy
from
Flinders
University
(Australia).
• Joined
the
University
of
Melbourne
straight
aaer
(2003),
taught
in
UG
and
PG
programs.
• Lea
the
UoM
(2007)
to
join
IGSB,
University
of
South
Australia,
taught
in
the
MBA
program
(Strategic
Management,
Corporate
Strategy,
Entrepreneurship
&
Innova.on).
• Started
teaching
online
at
the
IGSB
in
2008.
• In
early
2014
moved
to
Torrens
University
Australia,
a
start-‐up
university
owned
by
Laureate
Interna.onal
(PBC),
the
largest
private
higher
ed
provider.
• Was
one
of
the
first
senior
academics
and
MBA
Program
Director.
TUA
runs
F2F
and
fully
online
degrees.
• Joined
AUD
in
August
2015.
• Audited
several
MOOCs,
including
Learning
How
to
Learn,
the
largest
/
most
popular
MOOC
on
Coursera.
• Post
regularly
on
LinkedIn
on
issues
related
to
e-‐learning.
• Currently
researching
barriers
to,
and
enablers
of
e-‐learning
adop.on
in
the
UAE
and
am
generally
interested
in
all
things
digital
and
entrepreneurial.
4
5. Agenda
• What’s
wrong
with
the
current
higher
educa.on
system
• Digital
disrup.on
in
the
higher
educa.on
industry
• The
benefits
of
e-‐learning
• Meet
the
disruptors
and
incumbents:
– MOOCs
– New
entrants
– Incumbents’
response
• The
economics
of
e-‐learning
and
MOOCs
• Online
MBA
• The
future
of
the
university
5
6. • “The
cost
disease”
(Baumol
&
Bowen,
1966)
=>
leads
to
higher
costs
of
educa.on
• A
report
by
HSBC
(2014)
found
the
UAE
to
offer
the
sixth
most
expensive
educa.on
globally
at
$30,472,
coming
ahead
of
Canada
($29,947)
and
France
($16,777).
• Student
debt
-‐
$1
trillion
in
the
U.S.
alone,
or
$25,000
per
student
(more
than
credit
card
debt)
• 67%
of
parents
in
the
UAE
simply
do
not
have
adequate
funds
to
meet
the
aspira.ons
they
have
for
their
children’s
higher
educa.on
(HSBC,
2014)
• More
educa.on
does
not
mean
bexer
job
outcomes.
• Poor
learning
outcomes
for
students,
as
a
consequence
of
a
lack
of
lack
personaliza.on
and
flexibility
The
modern
higher
ed
system
is
plagued
with
inefficiencies
6
7. The
costs
of
higher
educa7on
have
been
rising…
..and
are
projected
to
increase
even
further
Source:
hJp://
www.wellsfargoadvantagefunds.com
Costs
based
on
2008-‐2009
es.mate
of
average
tui.on
and
room
and
board
in
current
dollars
for
four-‐year
public
and
private
universi.es
according
to
the
2008
Trends
in
College
Pricing,
published
by
the
College
Board.
Projected
pricing
assumes
a
6%
annual
rate
of
increase
in
college
costs.
7
8. Clayton christensen institute@christenseninst
What
do
college
students
learn?
• Study
of
2,300
undergraduates
at
two
dozen
universi.es
who
took
the
Collegiate
Learning
Assessment
• 45%
demonstrated
no
gains
in
cri.cal
thinking,
analy.cal
reasoning,
and
wrixen
communica.ons
during
first
two
years
• 32%
did
not
typically
take
courses
with
more
than
40
pages
of
reading
per
week
• 50%
did
not
take
a
single
course
in
which
they
wrote
more
than
20
pages
The
quality
of
higher
educa7on?
Source:
Arum
&
Roksa
(2010)
quoted
in
Clayton
Christensen
InsWtute
(n.d.)
9. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE#
christenseninst
• 3.6
million
job
openings
for
which
employers
say
they
can’t
find
qualified
employees
• 49%
of
US
employers
struggle
to
fill
vacant
jobs
because
of
lack
of
talent,
compared
to
34%
globally
• The
signaling
effect
of
a
college
degree
appears
to
be
an
imprecise
encapsula.on
of
one’s
skills
for
the
knowledge
economy
of
the
.mes.
• McKinsey
analysts
es.mate
that
the
number
of
skillsets
needed
in
the
workforce
has
increased
rapidly
from
178
in
September
2009
to
924
in
June
2012
The
job
mismatch
paradox
10. Clayton christensen institute@christenseninst
48%
of
employed
U.S.
college
graduates
are
in
jobs
that
don’t
require
a
four-‐year
degree
42%
of
visual
and
performing
arts
students
said
college
didn’t
prep
them
for
employment
The
average
2013
college
graduate
will
owe
$35,200
in
debt
(and
will
likely
be
paying
it
off
in
a
job
they
hate)
Six
.mes
as
many
graduates
are
working
in
retail
or
hospitality
as
had
originally
planned
–
they’re
becoming
waiters,
Gap
salespeople
and
baristas,
because
it’s
the
only
work
they
could
find
284,000
of
college
graduates
(37,000
of
those
have
advanced
degrees
like
JD’s
or
PhD’s)
will
be
working
minimum
wage
jobs
–
like
flipping
burgers
75%
of
people
say
they
aren’t
living
up
to
their
crea.ve
poten.al
Source:
McKinsey
(2012)
And
we
already
know
that
studies
from
Gallup
and
Deloixe
show
that
70-‐80%
of
workers
are
ac.vely
disengaged
and
don’t
enjoy
the
work
they
do
Voice
of
the
US
college
graduate
11. Source:
Hirt
&
WillmoJ
(2014)
Strategic
principles
for
compeWng
in
the
digital
age,
McKinsey
&
Company,
May.
But
digital
disrup7on
is
eventually
coming
to
higher
educa7on…
11
12. 12
Time
Performance
Performance that customers can
utilise and absorb
Range of
performance that
customers can
utilise
1
2
3
3
Disrup.ve
innova.ons
–
New
entrants
almost
always
win
Incumbents
nearly
always
win
in
sustaining
innova.ons
hxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDrMAzCHFUU
Sustaining
vs
disrup7ve
innova7ons
(Clayton
Christensen)
13. 13
• We
dis.nguish
between
– Sustaining
innova,ons
–
new
and
improved
products
aimed
at
our
exis.ng,
high-‐margin
customers;
– Disrup,ve
innova,ons
–
innova.ons
that
are
inferior
to
the
current
offering,
but
offer
features
that
customers
value
(affordability
+
flexibility),
or
are
targe.ng
non-‐consumers.
• In
every
market
there
is
a
rate
of
improvement
in
performance
that
customers
can
u.lize
or
absorb.
• In
every
market
there
is
a
dis.nctly
different
trajectory
of
improvement
that
innova.ng
companies
provide
as
they
introduce
new
and
improved
products.
• The
pace
of
technological
progress
almost
always
outstrips
the
ability
of
customers
in
any
given
.er
of
the
market
to
use
it
.
• Once
the
disrup.ve
product
gains
a
foothold
in
new
or
low-‐end
markets,
the
improvement
cycle
begins:
– The
pace
of
technological
progress
outstrips
customers’
ability
to
use
it…
– The
previously
not-‐good-‐enough
technology
eventually
improves
enough
to
intersect
with
the
needs
of
more
demanding
customers…
– Disruptors
are
on
a
path
that
will
ul.mately
crush
the
incumbents.
• Disrup.ons
paralyze
industry
leaders
as
their
resource
alloca.on
processes
are
geared
toward
suppor.ng
sustaining
innova.ons.
How
disrup7ve
innova7on
works
14. Clayton christensen institute@christenseninst
• Is
the
innova.on
targe.ng
people
who
are
non-‐consumers
or
overserved
by
exis.ng
products?
• Is
the
innova.on
not
as
good
as
exis.ng
products
as
judged
by
historical
measures
of
performance?
• Is
the
innova.on
simpler
to
use,
more
convenient,
and
more
affordable?
• Is
there
a
technology
enabler
that
can
carry
the
new
value
proposi.on
up-‐
market?
• Is
the
technology
paired
with
a
business
model
innova.on
that
allows
it
to
be
sustainable?
• Are
exis.ng
providers
mo.vated
to
ignore
the
new
innova.on
and
not
threatened
at
the
outset?
How
to
spot
a
disrup7ve
innova7on
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
15. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Industries
without
an
upwardly
scalable
technology
are
not
disrupted
Where
does
disrup7on
not
apply?
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
17. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Personaliza7on
Data
and
Feedback
Factory
-‐
the
current
model
based
on
standardiza7on
Teacher
effec7veness
Cost
control
Poten7al
benefits
of
e-‐learning
vs
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
18. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE#
christenseninst
Student
achievement
in
online
courses
when
administered
by
faculty
in
core
4.6
Student
achievement
in
tradi.onal
classes
taught
by
faculty
in
core
5.6
Student
achievement
in
online
courses
when
administered
by
focused
online
faculty
5.7
Another
analysis
of
over
1000
studies
of
online-‐course
results
conducted
by
US’
Department
of
Educa.on
found
that
people
who
complete
such
courses
do
bexer
on
average
than
students
in
face-‐to-‐face
instruc.on.
But:
students
need
to
be
mo7vated
self-‐starters!!!
Sound
learning
design
boosts
student
outcomes
Sources:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.),
USDE
19. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Deliver
content
to
students
Tes.ng
&
assessment
Progress
to
next
grade,
subject,
or
body
of
material
Receive
results
Fixed-‐7me,
variable
learning
in
tradi7onal
universi7es
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
20. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Offer
learning
experiences
to
students
Tes.ng
&
assessment
Receive
real-‐.me
interac.ve
feedback
Progress
to
next
body
of
material
Learning
is
fixed
and
7me
is
variable
The
new
model
-‐
Competency-‐based
learning
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
22. Private
equity
and
venture
capital
are
increasingly
inves7ng
in
higher
educa7on
…
22
23. And
other
new
kids
on
the
block
23
[In
April
2015]
Linkedin
made
a
surprise
purchase
of
the
online
learning
website
Lynda.com
for
a
cool
$1.5
billion.
While
many
in
the
tech
industry
scratched
their
heads
over
the
acquisiWon,
I
want
to
tell
you
firsthand
why
this
is
not
only
a
smart
fit,
but
a
great
purchase
as
well
(Owsinski
/
Forbes)
The
Economist
Group
launched
Learning.ly,
a
catalog
of
proprietary
online
courses,
on
January
12,
2016.
The
pla[orm
offers
professional
development
courses
curated
by
the
staff
of
The
Economist
and
taught
by
experts
from
different
fields.
24. How
incumbents
are
responding
hxps://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PLl2dezBNo_BkaJhG2IWePTtSA58MF8Xx-‐
&v=M2jgSXP0ra4
hxps://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=zihmiLx3Xlk&list=PLl2dezBNo_BkaJhG2IWePTtSA58MF8Xx-‐&index=2
Georgia
Tech
on
the
Need
for
OMS
The
Georgia
Ins7tute
of
Technology,
Udacity
and
AT&T
have
teamed
up
to
offer
the
first
accredited
Master
of
Science
in
Computer
Science
that
students
can
earn
exclusively
through
the
Massive
Open
Online
Course
(MOOC)
delivery
format
and
for
a
frac.on
of
the
cost
of
tradi.onal,
on-‐campus
programs.
This
collabora.on—informally
dubbed
"OMS
CS"
to
account
for
the
new
delivery
method—brings
together
leaders
in
educa.on,
MOOCs
and
industry
to
apply
the
disrup.ve
power
of
massively
open
online
teaching
to
widen
the
pipeline
of
high-‐
quality,
educated
talent
needed
in
computer
science
fields.
Accredited.
Affordable.
Accessible.
"I
had
been
searching
for
the
right
degree
program
for
years.
It's
hard
to
find
a
high-‐quality
master's
program
that
I
could
do
while
keeping
my
full-‐Wme
job.
The
incepWon
of
OMS
CS
was
like
the
answer
to
prayer.
It
has
exceeded
my
expectaWons."
-‐Yeeling
Lam,
December
2015
graduate
of
OMS
CS
24
25. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE#
christenseninst
Is
the
allure
of
the
F2F
full-‐7me
MBA
diminishing?
An
MBA
from
a
mid-‐ranking
school
is
no
longer
the
investment
it
once
was.
In
2010
the
average
tui.on
fee
charged
by
American
ins.tu.ons
ranked
within
our
top
100,
but
outside
of
the
top
15,
was
$81,911
for
the
full
two
years.
The
average
basic
salary
of
those
schools’
freshly-‐minted
MBAs
was
$81,178
a
year.
Five
years
ago
tui.on
at
the
same
cohort
of
schools
was
nearly
$22,000
cheaper—
$60,247—while
the
average
salary,
$78,442,
was
barely
less
than
today’s.
This
price
rise
comes
at
a
.me
when
enrolment
is
falling;
for
American
mid-‐level
schools
it
is
down
20%
over
the
decade
—
“Trouble
in
The
Middle,”
The
Economist,
October
15,
2011
Dr
Gino
Mar.ni,
a
senior
director
with
GlaxoSmithKline
is
studying
for
an
MBA
with
Liverpool
University.
Being
an
excep.onally
busy
man
–
he
runs
a
scien.fic
support
group
in
the
company’s
Essex
development
laboratories
and
has
a
family
–
he
cannot
spare
the
.me
to
axend
lectures
or
summer
schools.
(The
Times,
26
Nov,
2008)
U.S.
News
&
World
Report
had
commented
that
“while
the
quality
of
online
M.B.A.
degrees
lea
much
to
be
desired
during
their
early
days,
their
axributes
have
steadily
improved
over
the
past
few
years,
as
have
their
pedigrees”.
The
dean
of
the
Columbia
University
Business
School
was
quoted
as
saying,
“I
think
people
will
look
at
different
formats
.
.
.
I
think
people
may
want
to
get
an
MBA
in
a
slightly
different
way”.
Source:
Driving
towards
a
disrupWon?
HBS
#9-‐612-‐101
26. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE#
christenseninst
Performance
Time
Time
DifferentMeasure
ofPerformance
$150,000
!!!
Part-‐.me
MBA
Online
“Garbage”
2-‐year
MBA
Corporate
Universi.es:
Compe.ng
against
nonconsump.on
Help
me
solve
this
problem
Teach
me
what
I
need
to
know
to
become
a
great
manager
Give
me
the
creden.als
I
need
to
get
the
next,
more
lucra.ve
job
Help
me
switch
careers
Help
me
join
a
pres.gious
network
•
Brand
•
Connec.ons
Harvard
Business
School
is
being
disrupted!
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
27. The
economics
of
e-‐learning
–
example
of
HBS’
MBA
program
Cost
item
$$$
Tui.on,
not
including
fees
for
materials
$51,200
Courses
/
year
10
Sessions
/
course
28
Hours
/
session
1.33
Tui.on/class-‐hr/student
$137.1
Students
/
class
90
Tui.on
revenues
/
class/hr
$12,342.85
Major
costs
$$$
Professor
???
Facili.es
-‐
really
nice
ones!!!
???
Admin
and
support
staff
(5:1
professor
ra.o)
???
27
Source:
Driving
towards
a
disrupWon?
HBS
#9-‐612-‐101
28. Tradi7onal
university
costs
Need
for
for
physical
proximity
Adding
students
is
expensive—they
require
more
buildings
and
instructors—
and
so
a
university’s
marginal
cost
of
produc.on
is
high.
That
means
that
even
in
a
compe..ve
market,
where
price
converges
towards
marginal
cost,
modern
educa.on
is
dear.
Difficult
to
raise
produc7vity
University
lecturers
can
teach
at
most
a
few
hundred
students
each
semester—
the
maximum
that
can
be
squeezed
into
lecture
halls
and
exam-‐marking
rosters.
Because
it
is
so
labor
intensive
higher
educa.on
relies
on
large
numbers
of
instructors
paid
rela.vely
modest
salaries.
E-‐learning
/MOOC
Classic
informa7on
goods
High
fixed
costs
of
produc.on
and
rock-‐
boxom
marginal
costs
of
reproduc.on
-‐
teaching
addi.onal
students
is
virtually
free.
...as
prices
converge
towards
marginal
cost,
there
will
be
lixle
scope
for
undercu•ng
the
compe..on.
Instead
MOOCs
are
likely
to
compete
on
quality…Higher
produc.on
costs
are
a
small
price
to
pay
to
axract
much
greater
numbers
of
students.
Winner-‐take-‐all
dynamic
The
best
pla[orms
axract
the
most
customers
and
profit
handsomely
as
a
result.
See
more
at:
hxp://marginalrevolu.on.com/marginalrevolu.on/2014/02/
the-‐economics-‐of-‐online-‐
educa.on.html#sthash.HkYJK37w.dpuf
The
rise
of
e-‐learning
may
upend
the
economics
of
higher
educa7on
28
What
will
ensue
is
moun7ng
price
compe77on!
29. Bifurca7on
of
higher
educa7on…
and
ensuing
price
compe77on
Two
quotes
by
Clayton
Christensen:
“Some
[universi.es]
will
survive.
Most
will
evolve
hybrid
models,
in
which
universi.es
licence
some
courses
from
an
online
provider
like
Coursera
but
then
provide
more
specialized
courses
in
person.
Hybrids
are
actually
a
principle
regardless
of
industry.
If
you
want
to
use
a
new
technology
in
a
mainstream
exis.ng
market,
it
has
to
be
a
hybrid.”
hxp://www.businessinsider.com.au/clay-‐christensen-‐
higher-‐educa.on-‐on-‐the-‐edge-‐2013-‐2
“Historically
there
has
never
been
compe..on
on
the
basis
of
price.
For
online
universi.es,
like
Liverpool
and
the
University
of
Phoenix,
if
prices
drop
by
60%
they
s.ll
make
money.
But
for
the
vast
majority
of
tradi.onal
universi.es,
if
the
prices
fall
by
10%
they
are
bankrupt;
they
have
no
wriggle
room.
So
I'd
be
very
surprised
if
in
ten
years
we
don't
see
hundreds
of
universi.es
in
bankruptcy”.
hxp://www.economist.com/whichmba/clayton-‐
christensen-‐s.ll-‐disrup.ve
Buyervalue
Relative cost
High
Low
LowHigh
University
of
Phoenix
Harvard
University
A
tradi.onal
university
13
29
30. Is
this
good
enough?
–
You
judge!
(see
Christensen’s
lecture
on
innova.on
at
U
of
Phoenix)
hxps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VmbSpTJXozk
Percep.ons
of
online
degrees
has
changed
as
top-‐ranked
schools
have
started
offering
more
distance
educa.on
op.ons
and
MOOCs.
New
avenues
and
associated
credenWals
will
conWnue
to
open
up…
When
MOOCs
burst
onto
the
scene,
companies
were
skepWcal.
Now,
they
are
accepted
by
employers
from
Accenture
to
Amazon
to
Google
and
Goldman
Sachs.
Companies
are
re-‐examining
their
hiring
pracWces.
Anant
Agarwal,
edX
CEO
and
professor
at
MIT
In
the
past
couple
of
years
schools
like
MIT,
Stanford,
Duke
and
Johns
Hopkins
have
joined
the
online
educaWon
landscape.
It
elevates
the
concept
of
online
higher
ed.
Just
by
their
parWcipaWon
the
category
is
liled.
Cullen,
managing
director
at
Infinia
DC
(brand
consultant
for
colleges
and
universi.es)
Employers
are
embracing
e-‐learning
degrees
30
31. Imagine
if
you
aJended
your
next
finance
class
in
a
virtual
reality
through
3D
goggles.
Or
if
you
networked
with
alumni
through
an
avatar
of
your
likeness
projected
onto
your
laptop.
Or
if
your
strategy
professor
beamed
live
feedback
to
your
tablet
device
during
a
heated
case
study.
• Some
of
these
innova.ons
may
seem
outlandish
to
MBAs
who
have
spent
their
semesters
learning
around
bricks
rather
than
clicks.
But
as
the
world’s
top
business
schools
begin
to
harness
the
power
of
innova.on,
such
whizzy
technologies
are
closer
to
becoming
a
reality.
• Top
schools
are
inves.ng
heavily
in
in-‐house
learning
technologies
and
some
are
compe.ng
with
the
likes
of
Coursera,
edX
or
Udacity.
• But
now
schools
are
exploring
eccentric
tech
tools
such
as
Second
Life,
robo.cs
and
ar.ficial
intelligence.
Exo7c
technologies
are
becoming
a
reality
in
e-‐learning…
31
Source:
BusinessBecause,
2016
32. • The
future
of
higher
educa.on
is
blended
learning.
• Likewise,
the
future
of
MBA
/
b-‐school
programs
is
blended
learning,
flexibility
and
customiza.on.
• Learning
is
life-‐long,
with
MOOCs
and
the
like
filling
in
the
gap
for
short,
on-‐demand,
just-‐in-‐.me,
inexpensive
courses.
• Universi.es
will
need
to
carve
unique
strategic
posi.ons.
• “Me
too”
ins.tu.ons
will
be
displaced
by
MOOCs
(and
similar
pla[orms)
which
are
close
subs.tutes.
• Top
universi.es
will
survive
the
disrup.on,
and
their
best
bet
might
be
to
preserve
exclusivity
–
but
they,
too,
will
need
to
change
and
embrace
the
disrup.on!
Harvard,
Wharton
and
GeorgiaTech
are
prime
examples
that
this
is
feasible.
The
Future
of
higher
educa7on
and
learning
32
33. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Unit
of
accredita.on:
The
ins.tu.on
Unit
of
accredita.on:
the
course
A
different
type
of
university
Standards:
thru
course
acceptance
How
future
universi7es
may
look
like
Source:
Clayton
Christensen
Ins.tute
(n.d.)
34. CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN INSTITUTE@christenseninst
Benefits
of
blended
learning
for
teachers
1. Eager
students
2. Bexer
informa.on
3. Team
teaching
4. Extended
.me
with
students
5. Individualized
PD
plans
6. Mo.vate
hard
to
reach
kids
7. More
leadership
roles
8. More
earning
power
9. Focus
on
deeper
learning
10. New
op.ons
to
teach
at
home
Source:
Digital
Learning
Now!
And
what’s
in
there
for
professors?