Prezentace v rámci konference Smart Life, kterou pořádala Technologická agentura ČR dne 20. 10. 2016 v NTK v Praze.

1. Making Things in 2030 –
Implications for Policy
Andy Wyckoff, Director
Alistair Nolan, Senior Economist
Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation, OECD
TA CR Day, Prague,
October 20th 2016

2. The NPR will be a confluence of new
technologies…..

3. ….underpinned by digital
technologies.
Autonomous
machines and
systems
Artificial
Intelligence
Cloud
computing
Human-
Machine
integration
System
integration
Internet of
Things
Big data
Simulations
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)

4. Contribution to potential per capita output growth (% pts unless otherwise noted)
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 2016, Volume 1.
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Capital per worker MFP
Potential employment rate Active population rate
Potential per capita growth (%)
Pre-crisis: MFP story Post-crisis: K story
The possible productivity benefits of digital
technologies are urgently needed.
-Output and productivity in US firms that adopt data-driven
decision making are 5% to 6% higher than expected given
those firms’ other investments in ICTs
- (Brynjolfsson, Hitt and Kim, 2011).
-The Internet of Things reduces costs among industrial
adopters by 18% on average.
- (Vodatafone, 2015).
-Autonomous mine haulage trucks could increase output by
15-20%, lower fuel consumption by 10-15% and reduce
maintenance costs by 8%.
- (Citigroup-Oxford Martin School, 2015).

5. Selected themes – digital
technologies
Autonomous
machines and
systems
Artificial
Intelligence
Cloud
computing
Human-
Machine
integration
System
integration
Internet of
Things
Big data
Simulations
Additive
manufacturing
(3D printing)
Policy challenges include
-Broadening access to critical ICT infrastructures.
-Reducing barriers to diffusion, increasing
interoperability.
-Resolving issues of liability, transparency and
ownership.
-Managing digital security and privacy.

6. Selected Themes - 3D printing

7. Selected Themes - 3D printing

8. Selected Themes - 3D printing
Could have positive environmental effects
E.g. It permits many materials to be shaped in ways previously possible
only with plastics.
E.g. 3D-printed parts can also lower the environmental impacts of some
products (3D-printed nozzles in jet engines lower fuel consumption).

9. Selected Themes - 3D printing
Could have positive environmental effects
E.g. It permits many materials to be shaped in ways previously possible
only with plastics.
E.g. 3D-printed parts can also lower the environmental impacts of some
products (3D-printed nozzles in jet engines lower fuel consumption).
But how widespread will 3D-printing be in manufacturing ?
Much machining work is now replaced by 3D-printing :
Boeing has replaced hundreds of parts.
But machining is a small part of manufacturing (+/- 5% by
value).

10. Selected Themes - 3D printing
Could have positive environmental effects
E.g. It permits many materials to be shaped in ways previously possible
only with plastics.
E.g. 3D-printed parts can also lower the environmental impacts of some
products (3D-printed nozzles in jet engines lower fuel consumption).
But will 3D-printing become widespread in manufacturing ?
Much machining is now replaced by 3D-printing – and
Boeing has replaced hundreds of parts.
But machining is a small share of all production (+/- 5% by
value).
From a ‘green’ standpoint, policy challenges include:
• Create a voluntary certification system to label 3D
printers with different grades of sustainability;
• Remove intellectual property barriers to enable 3D
printing of repair parts for products no longer in
production.
• X-border shipment of “printer” cartridges (toxic
materials)
• Purity of required feedstock precludes using recycled
materials.

11. Bio-based products are becoming
widespread and familiar
Automotive
– Tyres
– Bioplastics, interior paneling
– Textiles
- biobased surfactants and
lubricants
Consumer Goods
– Enzymes in Detergents
– Biobased Cosmetics
– Biological Dental Care
– Biobased Packaging
– Biobased Sweeteners
– Enzymes as Additives
Health, Medical Tech.
– Biological Coatings
– Implants
– Diagnostics
Building Industry
– Biological Insulating Materials
– Biobased Building Material
– Biobased Construction Chemicals
Nutrition
– Food Security
– Healthy Diets and Additives
– Biobased Flavourings
Medicine
– Biopharmaceuticals
– Antibiotics
– Tissue Replacement
Energy
– Biofuels
– Bioenergy
– Biogas
Source: Courtesy of BIOCOM AG, Germany

12. Bio-based production creates policy
challenges, for instance…
Automotive
– Tyres
– Bioplastics, interior paneling
– Textiles
- biobased surfactants and
lubricants
Consumer Goods
– Enzymes in Detergents
– Biobased Cosmetics
– Biological Dental Care
– Biobased Packaging
– Biobased Sweeteners
– Enzymes as Additives
Health, Medical Tech.
– Biological Coatings
– Implants
– Diagnostics
Building Industry
– Biological Insulating Materials
– Biobased Building Material
– Biobased Construction Chemicals
Nutrition
– Food Security
– Healthy Diets and Additives
– Biobased Flavourings
Medicine
– Biopharmaceuticals
– Antibiotics
– Tissue Replacement
Energy
– Biofuels
– Bioenergy
– Biogas
Source: Courtesy of BIOCOM AG, Germany
-Screening processes for manufacture and sale of
synthetic DNA (avoid dubious customers);
-Public-private investments in bio-refineries;
-Improve regulation, e.g.
-Boost the use of standards to reduce barriers to
trade in bio-based products.
-Improve waste regulation.
- Develop interdisciplinary skills

13. Selected Themes – Nantoechnology
Electron microscope image of gold
mesh. Each hole is 175
nanometers in diameter, smaller
than the wavelength of light. Can
increase efficiency of solar cells
175%.
Nanotechnology-enabled printing
of solar cells (can move away from
energy-intensive zone-melting
processes used for traditional
silicon solar cells).

14. Selected Themes - New materials

15. Selected Themes - New materials
New policy issues: cybersecurity risks.
Older policy issues: Close collaboration needed
between industry, universities, research funding
agencies and public laboratories.

16. Some Cross-Cutting Issues

17. Sound science and R&D policies are
essential

18. …but many countries have reduced
public spending on R&D…
Public R&D budgets 2008-2015 : G7,Korea and Czech
Republic, Index 2008 = 100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
United States
Italy
Czech Republic
Germany
Korea
Japan
Canada
United Kingdom
France

19. Cross-country differences in resource flows to patenting firms
Change in financial inputs associated with a 10% change in patent stock
(2003-2010)
Note: The black dot shows the country-specific point estimate while the grey bands denote the 90% confidence interval (note
that the confidence intervals vary across countries due to differences in the number of observations).
Source: Andrews, Criscuolo and Menon (2014) based on firm level data from the ORBIS-Patstat Database for the non-farm
business sector
Governments must create an
environment for business dynamism

20. Well designed institutions needed for
technology diffusion and adoption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% All enterprises 10-49 50-249 250+
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
Enterprises using cloud computing services by employment size class, 2014
As a percentage of enterprises in each employment size class

21. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% All enterprises 10-49 50-249 250+
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
Enterprises using cloud computing services by employment size class, 2014
As a percentage of enterprises in each employment size class
”We have to execute quickly, otherwise those who are already
leading in digital will snatch the industrial production from us.”
Angela Merkel, World Economic Forum 2015
We need well designed institutions for
technology diffusion and adoption

22. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
% All enterprises 10-49 50-249 250+
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
Enterprises using cloud computing services by employment size class, 2014
As a percentage of enterprises in each employment size class
”We have to execute quickly, otherwise those who are already
leading in digital will snatch the industrial production from us.”
Angela Merkel, World Economic Forum 2015
- Just 18% of German companies familiar with the term ‘Industry
4.0’
- Only 4% of German businesses have implemented digitalised
and networked production processes or have plans to begin
doing so.
ZEW Mannnheim 2015 survey of 4,500 German businesses
We need well designed institutions for
technology diffusion and adoption

23. NPR will create new challenges for the
intellectual property system
Copyrights, patents, trademarks,
designs
T M

24. NPR will create new challenges for the
intellectual property system
Copyrights, patents, trademarks,
designs
T M
For example:
- We may need to rethink some aspects of IP rules in a
world where machines can invent things.
- Will 3D printing create challenges for patent
eligibility, for instance if printed human tissue
improves on the original ?
- Should there be a public domain for designs that allow
parts for old products to be printed?

25. NPR may need changes to labour
market policies

26. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies

27. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies

28. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies

29. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies
The Quill programme writes analytic reports and
Automated Insights can draft text from spreadsheets.

30. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies
The Quill programme writes analytic reports and
Automated Insights can draft text from spreadsheets.
Recent softwares interpret some human emotion
better than humans (Khatchadourian, 2015).

31. Complex aspects of the work of software engineers
can be performed by algorithms (Hoos, 2012).
A version of IBM’s Watson can act as a customer
service agent (Rotman, 2013).
Computer-based managers are being trialled. These
allocate work and schedules (Lorentz et al, 2015).
NPR may need changes to labour
market policies
The Quill programme writes analytic reports and
Automated Insights can draft text from spreadsheets.
Recent softwares interpret some human emotion
better than humans (Khatchadourian, 2015).
- More self-employment, as technology
displaces labour and lowers start-up costs?
- Are any Labour Ministries preparing for
driverless vehicles ?
- More sub-national policy, as NPR technologies
amplify effects of initial skills endowments ?

32. Education and training systems
needs constant attention
Two thirds of people surveyed lack the skills to succeed in technology-rich
environments
very low skills or opted
out of the test
low skills
medium skills
solid skills
2 out of
3
people
lack
skills
for the
digital
age
32

33. Education and training systems
needs constant attention
Two thirds of people surveyed lack the skills to succeed in technology-rich
environments
very low skills or opted
out of the test
low skills
medium skills
solid skills
2 out of
3
people
lack
skills
for the
digital
age
33
-But it is not only about balancing skills supply
and demand.
-Increasing importance of inter-disciplinary
education and research?
-More interaction with industry as the
knowledge content of production rises?

34. Other cross-cutting issues
Policy also needs long-term thinking.
This has challenges, of course:
Robert Metcalfe, inventor of Ethernet, in 1995:
"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly
supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse”
Public attitudes have shaped regulation of new
technologies in the recent past
Public acceptance might also be important.

35. http://www.vinnova.se/en/misc/Smart_Industry_Conference/
http://oe.cd/npr-industry
NPR Conference –
November 17th and 18th, Stockholm
Co-organised with Vinnova and Sweden’s Ministry of
Enterprise and Innovation
300 policymakers, industrialists, academics and
policy analysts to consider the main themes of the
NPR

36. Thank you