1. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services 3 February 2011
PMI – Services drops marginally to 65.9 in January:
Service companies continue to expand
• The Purchasing Managers’ Index for service companies (PMI – Services) fell from
66.0 in December 2010 to 65.9 in January. This is only a marginal drop compared to
the previous month, and the high index level indicates that activities in the private
service sector remain strong.
• All of the component indices except supplier delivery times increased in January.
The most heavily weighted indices in PMI – Services, business volumes and new
orders, continued to show strength, rising from already high levels. The index for
supplier delivery times fell 3.2 points, but the resulting index level indicates that
demand pressure remains high. Demand for new employees also remains strong.
• Service companies revised their planned business volumes upward in January. The
record high index level of 78.5 indicates that service companies retain a positive
outlook for the sector for the next six months.
• Service companies’ reporting of suppliers’ intermediate goods prices indicate that
these prices have risen in January. The continued positive economic trend in
Sweden and rising global intermediate goods prices have likely contributed to
increased cost pressure for private service companies.
Purchasing Managers' Index - Services
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
Seasonally Adjusted
Original
40
35
30
okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt feb jun okt
05 06 07 08 09 10
Magnus Alvesson. Swedbank, Economic Research Department. Phone + 46-8-5859 3341
Administration. Phone +46-8-5859 7740. Fax +46-5859 3540. e-mail ek.sekr@swedbank.se
Sebastian Bergfelt. Silf. Phone +46-73-944 6450, professionals@silf.se
2. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
3 February 2011, continued
Silf / Swedbanks' Purchasing Mangers' Index Service Sector, seasonally adjusted
Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast
Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned
activity times business
activity
2005 oct 59.7 64.9 53.1 63.3 53.3 52.5 54.2 61.1
nov 55.6 61.6 47.3 60.7 47.5 54.5 49.3 68.6
dec 58.7 61.5 53.2 64.2 51.1 60.4 54.3 70.2
2006 jan 59.4 64.8 53.5 60.1 57.1 60.7 45.7 68.8
feb 59.0 65.7 53.0 58.4 57.5 54.7 49.5 62.3
mar 62.5 70.2 53.9 63.5 59.6 63.5 49.3 64.8
apr 57.3 60.8 53.3 59.8 52.4 52.7 52.6 67.1
may 60.1 64.1 51.9 63.7 57.3 57.9 53.8 71.8
jun 66.2 72.4 57.2 70.3 60.4 63.2 58.8 70.0
jul 62.9 65.3 59.9 63.5 61.8 61.9 50.6 66.7
aug 64.6 69.4 54.7 66.8 64.8 61.0 54.8 70.1
sep 61.8 68.7 52.5 65.6 55.7 63.2 55.8 67.0
oct 61.2 67.3 55.0 62.1 58.4 56.1 54.4 67.4
nov 63.9 65.4 61.6 63.2 65.6 60.2 55.6 73.1
dec 67.5 71.7 59.8 68.8 67.8 58.9 53.2 75.6
2007 jan 66.5 71.1 61.1 68.4 63.0 63.8 58.0 74.6
feb 63.1 70.8 60.4 62.9 56.6 61.8 61.5 70.3
mar 59.5 61.0 55.1 61.5 58.6 56.6 56.5 68.8
apr 66.3 73.3 60.1 69.9 57.3 65.0 58.5 66.4
may 60.4 61.2 59.5 61.5 58.3 65.2 59.9 66.7
jun 62.0 62.6 56.9 63.7 63.1 61.6 55.0 63.3
jul 60.0 63.4 61.1 60.8 53.3 60.4 57.6 64.9
aug 57.0 57.8 59.0 55.2 56.9 52.9 58.0 61.0
sep 58.2 59.2 57.2 55.1 63.3 57.3 52.3 62.4
oct 57.1 55.9 56.7 56.4 60.4 53.3 57.0 69.2
nov 60.8 67.0 55.0 61.3 58.0 58.9 61.3 54.8
dec 62.3 66.8 57.1 61.7 62.9 65.0 62.1 60.6
2008 jan 58.1 60.2 52.8 57.4 62.1 56.7 63.4 68.1
feb 56.7 57.3 54.6 58.8 54.6 58.9 62.6 64.4
mar 54.6 54.4 52.7 53.6 58.6 52.4 59.9 71.6
apr 52.9 53.5 49.3 50.0 60.6 53.6 56.7 61.5
may 60.2 67.6 50.5 57.0 66.4 54.8 56.2 64.0
jun 51.9 56.1 49.3 46.6 58.5 44.9 63.5 63.5
jul 53.0 57.2 45.3 49.0 62.2 45.2 65.5 59.6
aug 50.5 52.8 49.6 45.8 56.7 49.0 56.9 60.8
sep 52.1 56.4 47.5 47.0 60.2 38.9 57.7 56.6
oct 42.4 44.1 45.7 35.2 49.7 44.4 57.7 48.3
nov 44.0 43.9 49.7 37.3 50.0 36.0 53.4 42.9
dec 38.3 37.7 39.9 37.2 39.4 37.3 45.2 40.7
2009 jan 35.6 33.5 42.5 36.2 30.5 28.7 48.8 34.6
feb 38.5 37.4 39.1 36.1 43.6 34.9 48.8 41.1
mar 40.8 44.4 41.8 42.2 32.9 39.0 48.9 36.8
apr 40.3 41.4 39.1 40.4 40.1 39.5 43.2 46.2
may 40.2 43.3 42.5 43.1 28.9 37.3 40.6 44.2
jun 41.3 43.6 39.7 45.1 33.2 43.3 34.9 51.1
jul 42.4 44.7 38.1 47.0 35.9 43.0 39.3 54.8
aug 45.6 51.1 40.9 50.8 34.6 47.4 45.2 55.8
sep 48.7 52.8 45.6 55.3 34.9 54.4 48.8 59.1
oct 55.1 62.0 47.2 62.5 41.3 62.7 44.8 61.4
nov 51.4 56.6 47.9 57.0 38.5 57.2 44.4 67.8
dec 47.7 52.5 46.8 50.0 38.4 48.8 52.4 61.7
2010 jan 55.5 59.6 50.9 59.9 47.4 56.7 48.8 62.4
feb 61.3 64.1 54.3 67.8 53.2 61.0 47.8 75.5
mar 61.5 65.5 58.7 63.5 56.0 60.3 56.5 71.9
apr 62.6 66.5 61.1 64.8 55.3 61.6 60.9 73.8
may 58.9 59.4 59.5 60.1 55.7 57.9 62.4 69.2
jun 59.1 61.5 61.7 59.9 52.4 60.5 61.6 68.7
jul 62.8 66.2 61.1 65.7 55.2 63.4 62.2 71.3
aug 63.9 66.1 62.1 68.0 55.8 63.8 61.7 70.5
sep 61.0 59.6 64.3 63.7 54.7 60.3 63.1 73.8
oct 63.8 65.1 61.7 67.3 57.9 61.5 60.0 76.6
nov 64.2 65.1 58.8 67.9 62.1 64.1 65.6 78.1
dec 66.0 69.6 64.6 66.1 62.8 61.0 63.6 77.3
2011 jan 65.9 70.9 61.4 66.7 62.9 65.2 67.3 78.5
2 (4)
3. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
3 February 2011, continued
Silf / Swedbanks' Purchasing Mangers' Index Service Sector, original
Components of PMI - Service Other indicies Forecast
Total index Business Delivery New orders Employment Backlog of orders Prices Planned
activity times business
activity
2005 oct 59.3 64.6 54.2 62.5 52.1 51.4 52.8 59.7
nov 53.8 60.3 47.6 57.3 46.0 50.8 46.0 65.1
dec 54.8 57.1 50.8 60.3 46.0 57.9 50.0 65.9
2006 jan 53.7 57.0 50.8 53.9 52.3 54.0 46.9 65.6
feb 57.5 63.8 52.6 57.8 54.3 56.9 49.1 63.2
mar 63.6 72.6 51.2 66.7 59.5 66.7 48.8 65.5
apr 59.6 63.6 52.7 63.6 54.6 55.6 53.6 70.9
may 63.6 69.2 52.9 67.3 60.6 62.5 56.7 76.0
jun 72.3 78.8 61.0 76.8 67.5 68.3 61.0 73.8
jul 58.9 58.1 62.8 55.8 61.6 54.7 52.3 67.4
aug 66.5 71.6 53.4 69.3 68.2 63.6 54.5 69.3
sep 64.0 72.6 53.5 68.6 55.8 64.0 57.0 66.3
okt 60.8 67.0 56.1 61.2 57.1 55.0 53.0 66.0
nov 62.2 64.1 62.0 59.8 64.1 56.5 52.2 69.6
dec 63.6 67.4 57.4 64.9 62.8 56.4 48.9 71.3
2007 jan 60.9 63.3 58.3 62.2 58.2 57.1 59.2 71.4
feb 61.7 68.9 60.0 62.2 53.3 64.0 61.1 71.1
mar 60.7 63.4 52.4 64.6 58.5 59.8 56.1 69.5
apr 68.7 76.2 59.5 73.8 59.5 67.9 59.5 70.2
may 63.8 66.3 60.5 65.1 61.6 69.8 62.8 70.9
jun 68.0 69.0 60.7 70.2 70.2 66.7 57.1 67.1
jul 56.1 56.3 64.1 53.1 53.1 53.1 59.4 65.6
aug 58.8 60.0 57.8 57.8 60.2 55.6 57.8 60.2
sep 60.4 63.1 58.1 58.1 63.4 58.1 53.5 61.6
oct 56.7 55.6 57.8 55.6 59.1 52.2 55.6 67.8
nov 59.1 65.8 55.3 57.9 56.6 55.3 57.9 51.3
dec 58.4 62.5 54.7 57.8 57.8 62.5 57.8 56.3
2008 jan 52.5 52.4 50.0 51.2 57.3 50.0 64.6 65.0
feb 55.3 55.4 54.2 58.1 51.4 61.1 62.2 65.3
mar 55.8 56.8 50.0 56.8 58.6 55.6 59.5 72.2
apr 55.3 56.4 48.7 53.8 62.8 56.4 57.7 65.4
may 63.6 72.7 51.5 60.6 69.7 59.4 59.1 68.2
jun 58.0 62.5 53.1 53.1 65.6 50.0 65.6 67.2
jul 49.0 50.0 48.3 41.4 62.1 37.9 67.2 60.3
aug 52.3 55.0 48.3 48.3 60.0 51.7 56.7 60.0
sep 54.3 60.3 48.5 50.0 60.3 39.7 58.8 55.9
oct 42.0 43.8 46.8 34.4 48.4 43.3 56.3 46.9
nov 42.2 42.6 50.0 33.8 48.5 32.4 50.0 39.4
dec 34.4 33.3 37.5 33.3 34.4 34.8 40.9 36.4
2009 jan 30.0 25.7 39.7 30.0 25.7 22.1 50.0 31.4
feb 37.1 35.5 38.7 35.5 40.3 37.1 48.4 41.9
mar 41.9 46.8 39.1 45.3 32.8 42.2 48.4 37.5
apr 42.7 44.2 38.5 44.2 42.3 42.3 44.2 50.0
may 43.6 48.4 43.5 46.8 32.3 41.9 43.5 48.4
jun 47.3 50.0 43.5 51.6 40.3 48.4 37.1 54.8
jul 38.5 37.5 41.1 39.3 35.7 35.7 41.1 55.6
aug 47.5 53.3 39.7 53.3 37.9 50.0 45.0 55.0
sep 50.9 56.7 46.6 58.3 35.0 55.2 50.0 58.3
oct 54.7 61.7 48.3 61.7 40.0 61.7 43.3 60.0
nov 49.6 55.4 48.2 53.6 37.0 53.6 41.1 64.3
dec 43.7 48.1 44.4 46.2 33.3 46.3 48.1 57.4
2010 jan 49.9 51.9 48.1 53.7 42.6 50.0 50.0 59.3
feb 59.8 62.2 53.9 67.1 50.0 63.2 47.4 76.3
mar 62.7 67.9 56.0 66.7 56.0 63.4 56.1 72.6
apr 65.0 69.4 60.4 68.7 57.5 64.4 61.9 77.6
may 62.3 64.5 60.5 63.7 59.0 62.5 65.3 73.4
jun 65.2 67.9 65.5 66.4 59.5 65.5 63.8 72.4
jul 58.9 59.0 64.0 58.0 55.0 56.1 64.0 72.0
aug 65.8 68.3 60.8 70.5 59.2 66.4 61.5 69.7
sep 63.2 63.5 65.3 66.7 54.8 61.1 64.3 73.0
oct 63.4 64.8 62.8 66.5 56.6 60.4 58.6 75.2
nov 62.5 63.8 59.1 64.4 60.7 60.5 62.2 74.6
dec 62.1 65.3 62.2 62.2 57.7 58.5 59.3 73.0
2011 jan 60.3 63.1 58.6 60.5 58.1 58.5 68.5 75.4
3 (4)
4. Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
3 February 2011, continued
Silf/Swedbank’s
Purchasing Managers’ Index – Services
- objectives and methodology
History Silf and Swedbank AB publ. made the first joint – internal – calculation of
the “Purchasing Managers’ Index” for the service sector of the four
indexes (PMI) during 2005. The model for PMI – Services is the U.S.
based Non-Manufacturing Index and the Swedish PMI, which has been
published since November 1994
Participants About 200 purchasing managers in the service sector.
Publication Third weekday of each month, 8:30 am.
Analysis Period Comparison with previous month.
Composition
of PMI – Services (%) New orders (within the company) 35
Business activity (within the company) 25
Employment (within the company) 20
Suppliers’ Delivery Times 20
Other leading indicators
(not included in PMI – Services) Backlog of Orders
Suppliers’ intermediate goods prices
Planned business activity next six months
Objective Quick economic indicator
Simple statistics
Statistics with relatively short publication intervals
Constant contact with a well-informed professional group
Calculation According to “diffusion index”. Positive changes are noted in percent for
the four sub indexes. The percentage of unchanged replies, multiplied by
0.5, is added to this figure. Then the different sub indexes are weighted as
described above to reach the total index. The Purchasing Managers’
Index – Services does not indicate activity levels but rather monthly
changes in activity in the service sector.
“Break-even” The dividing line between growth and decline – in line with US praxis –
has been drawn at a total index of 50. However, this boundary or “neutral
growth zone” should not be applied excessively. Rather, “Break-even” at
50 indicates a target value.
We believe we have used reliable sources and procedures to generate and analyze the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI –
Services). However, Swedbank AB (publ) and SILF (earlier Organisationen för Inköp och Logistik, /I&L/ – The Organization
for Purchasing and Logistics) cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the analyses and cannot be responsible for
any errors or omissions in the basic data or processing thereof. The reader should base any decisions on other background
material as well.
Swedbank AB (publ), SILF. their employees, and other coworkers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or injury of any kind arising from any errors or omissions in the analyses presented in the Purchasing
Managers’ Index – Services.
4 (4)
