Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation February 2014
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A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world as of February 2014
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Supreme Flour World Wheat Presentation February 2014
- 1. WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
- 2. The World Wheat Market Year 11/12 12/13 13/14 Production 697 656 712 Consumption 697 679 704 Surplus (shortfall) 0 -23 8 0 2
- 3. World Production and Use 0 3
- 4. World Ending Stocks Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. 0 4
- 5. World wheat supply & demand Date Beginning stock Production Supply total 12/13 13/14 199 199 176 697 656 712 896 Supply 11/12 855 888 Trade Exports/imports 158 137 159 Demand Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool 550 543 569 147 136 135 697 679 704 199 176 184 Ending stocks 0 5
- 6. Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio *Ending stocks 0 6
- 7. Global Ending Stocks and Price 0 7
- 8. Supplies in Top Exporting Countries* 0 8
- 9. International Wheat Factors Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.5% from last season, +56 million tons. Approximately 19.2% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed and is currently US$1.52 / buschel. Canadian production up by 38% from 2012/13 to a record 37.5 MMT but US production down 6% to 58 MMT Black Sea production has rebounded to 105 MMT from 77.5 MMT in 2012/13 with exports expected to be 33% higher. Argentine exports to fall 15% to 3 MMT vs. 5-year average of 7.57 MMT 0 9
- 11. Black Sea Exports 0 11
- 13. Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons) Date 13/14* Opening stock 489 Production 1795 Imports 1650* Consumption 3197 Exports 180 Closing stock 557 0 13
- 14. Local Wheat Drivers Limited small crop – 1,795 million tons (need to import 45% of requirement) = import parity driven With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices (quality milling wheat less abundant). Single largest driver of local prices is the weak currency (Rand). Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 14 Feb 2014 – 760 310 tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 618 750 tons. 0 14
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