This document from Gray Associates provides data and analysis on demand trends in higher education programs through September 2018. It includes data on student inquiries, Google search volumes, average prices per inquiry, growth in various programs and degrees, geographic trends, and competitive analyses. Program contribution and sustainability are also discussed. In particular, the information technology program is highlighted as having strong student demand but facing competitive pressures. Overall, the data show growing demand for online programs while inquiries for on-campus programs decline.

1. Data • Insights • Strategy
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Data • Insights • Strategy
www.GrayAssociates.com
Demand For Higher Education
Programs
Results through September 2018

2. Confidential 2
Who Is Gray?
Program and Market
Evaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
Demographics
Wages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace
§ Program Evaluation System
§ Program profiles
§ Program location
§ Market selection
§ Location selection
§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity
§ Price positioning
§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy
§ Strategy implementation
§ Complex analytics
Advanced Analytics
Predictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
Program
Economics
New

3. 3Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

4. Confidential 4
§ We started tracking Inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.
§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Gray has tracked demand for several years.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

5. Confidential 5
§ September volume rose 2% year-over-year.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)
Inquiry volumes have increased year-over-year for the past five months.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Inquiries
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+ 2%

6. Confidential 6
Overall Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
For June 2018 inquiries, total conversions increased 1% year-over-year.
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry Conversions
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry).
Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
Immature Months1
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+2%
YoY

7. Confidential 7
§ Year-over-year prices rose 1.1%.
§ September has the second lowest prices over the past 12 months.
§ Only August had a lower average Price per Inquiry.
Average Price for Pay-per-Inquiry
For the past 12 months, the average Price per Inquiry has risen year-over-year.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2016 $45.1 $45.9 $44.7 $44.8 $42.4 $44.9 $44.3 $44.5 $45.1 $44.7 $44.8 $45.4
2017 $45.3 $45.2 $45.5 $45.3 $45.5 $45.7 $45.2 $44.5 $45.0 $46.0 $45.9 $46.7
2018 $47.1 $46.5 $46.3 $47.4 $49.4 $48.7 $46.1 $45.3 $45.5 $- $- $-
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPI
All Programs and Award Levels
+1.1%
YoY
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

8. 8Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

9. Confidential 9
Inquiries for Online Programs
Inquiries for online programs grew 8% year-over-year in September.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for Online Programs
All Programs and Award Levels 2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+8%

10. Confidential 10
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
In September, inquiries for on-campus programs dropped 6% year-over-year.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries
Inquiries for On-Campus Programs
All Programs and Award Levels
2016 2017 2018
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-6% YoY

11. 11Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

12. Confidential 12
The Big 5 Programs: September Growth Year-over-Year
“Medical Assistant” is the only program on this list to decrease year-over-year in
inquiry volume.
Healthcare Administration doubled the number of inquiries from September 2017.
77%
100%
41%
62%
-6%-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Criminal Justice Healthcare
Administration
Business
Administration
Registered Nursing Medical Assistant
Five Largest Programs Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

13. Confidential 13
The Fast 5 Programs:
The Higher Education Programs with the Fastest Inquiry Growth
Health Services/Health Sciences has the fastest growth in inquiries.
444%
425%
348%
186% 175%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
Computer Science Health
Services/Health
Sciences
Allied Health
Diagnostic,
Intervention, and
Treatment
Public
Administration
Medical Insurance
Coding
The Fast 5 Programs
Year-over-Year Change in August Inquiries
§ In September 2018, all of the Fast 5 grew by at least 140%.
1. Includes the 75 programs with the highest volume since January 2012.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

14. Confidential 14
Inquiry Volumes by Degree: Year-Over-Year Change
Inquiries for Associate’s degrees climbed 18% from last September.
-13%
18%
2%
10%
10%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Change in Inquiries
September YoY
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

15. Confidential 15
Inquiries: Year-over-Year Inquiries by State
Arkansas again has the highest year-over-year percent change for September, +18%.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

16. Confidential 16
Student Inquiries: The Big 5 Cities
In September for the The Big 5 Cities, inquiries increased only in Houston.
§ Chicago decreased the most: -57%.
-20%
25%
-8%-9%
25%
-27%
-12%
-57%-65%
-55%
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
Los Angeles, CA Houston, TX New York, NY Philadelphia, PA Chicago, IL
Five Cities With the Most Inquiries Since January 2012
Year-over-Year Change in September Inquiries
2017 YoY % Change 2018 YoY % Change
Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System

17. 17Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

18. Confidential 18
§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher education programs.
- In 2016, these programs produced 67% of all completions.
- We track approximately 25 keywords for each program.
Google Search Trends: Programs
Gray’s Google search index continued its year-over-year growth, up 2% in September.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches
200 Largest Programs*
2016 2017 2018
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions
+2.0%

19. Confidential 19
§ Gray tracks search volume for a sample of 75 higher-education brands.
§ In Q3, year-over-year volume remained fairly constant year-over-year.
Google Search Trends: Brands
The year-over-year volume for Google brand searches rose 0.8% in September.
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches
75 Brands 2016 2017 2018
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands.
+0.8%

20. Confidential 20
Shrinking Programs
Google searches are falling fast for several Teaching programs.
-42%
-27%
-25%
-24%
-22%
-20%
-17%
-16%
-45% -40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Education, General
Criminal Justice/Safety Studies
Chemistry, General
Elementary Education and Teaching
Teacher Education, Multiple Levels
Physics, General
Psychology, General
Human Resources Management/Personnel
Administration, General
Fastest-declining Programs
September Google Searches
Teaching
Hospitality
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs.

21. Confidential 21
§ Some of the fastest growing brands are primarily online institutions
Fastest-growing Brands
In our sample of 75, the fastest-growing brands include very different schools.
21%
21%
25%
25%
27%
30%
50%
63%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Sacred Heart University
Harvard University
Stanford University
College for America, SNHU
University of Texas at Austin
Yale University
Florida Career College
Capella University
Fastest-growing Brands
Google Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 75 Brands. Minimum 2,500 Google searches

22. 22Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

23. Confidential 23
Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
We envision four foundations of program sustainability.
Program
Economics
Institutional
Mission
Academic
Standards
Program
Markets
Foundations of Program Sustainability

24. Program Scoring
We suggest using four categories of market data.
Student
Demand
Employment
Degree
Fit
Competitive
Intensity

25. Confidential 25
Program Markets: Program Rank
Scoring on the elements of four categories identifies potentially attractive programs.
Program 2
Program 3
Program 4
Program 5
Program 6
Program 7
Program 8
Program 9
Program 10

26. Confidential 26
§ Inquiries exceed the 98th percentile–among the 24 highest in our 1,400 program dataset.
§ Google searches and completions are at the 95th percentile.
§ There is a worrisome downward trend in inquiries and searches.
Program Markets: Program Scorecard – Student Demand
There is strong student demand for IT programs.

27. Confidential 27
§ Over 600 institutions teach this program nationwide, two schools entered in 2017.
§ Cost per click and the Google competitive index suggest a competitive market.
§ The average program is small–11 completions–in the bottom 40% of programs.
Program Markets: Program Scorecard - Competition
IT is fairly competitive.

28. Confidential 28
Program Markets: Program Scorecard – Employment & Fit
Job postings and completions suggest this is primarily a Bachelor’s program.

29. Confidential 29
Program Markets: Program Scorecard

30. 30Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

31. Confidential 31
Trends in Total Contribution
Institutions should understand overall program contribution margins and trends.

32. Confidential 32
Program Contribution: Ranking
Most programs are contribution positive, which makes comparative margins important.

33. Confidential 33
Program Contribution: Scorecard
Our scorecard shows performance on each metric compared to all other programs.

34. 34Confidential
§ Inquiries
- National
- Online & On-Campus
- Program, Degree, & City
§ Google Search Trends
- Programs
- Brands
- Growth and Decline
- Brand Reach
§ Program of the Month: Information Technology
§ Program Contribution Analysis
§ Summary

35. Confidential 35
§ We’re finally seeing consistent growth in student demand.
- As usual, online programs are driving the growth.
- Inquiries for on-ground continues to decline.
§ Both Google search and Gray inquiry data confirm this trend.
§ Prices for inquiries continue to stay below this summer’s peak.
§ As always, good market data enables better program decisions.
§ Adding program economics further improves decisions.
§ In combination, they enable schools to better develop and manage high-margin
programs that can fund mission-critical programs.
Key Demand Trends and Observations

36. Data • Insights • Strategy
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Data • Insights • Strategy
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