The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth.
So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020 and in the next 5 years?
With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength, we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as well as information and analysis to our customers.
This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We hope this publication will provide you with useful information!
Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing!
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FiinPro Data Digest #1: Vietnam Stock Market from Data Analytics Perspective
1. 1Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
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Vietnam Stock Market: 2019 Insights and 2020
Outlook from Data Analytics Perspective
The Powerful Product Suite of FiinGroup
FiinPro Data Digest I Issue #1 I January 10, 2020
Prepared by: Data Analytics Team
Only for the subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform
@ 2019 FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of FiinGroup, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced,
repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording,
taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher.
2. 2Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Preface
Dear valued customers:
The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock
market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth.
Looking back to a longer horizontal, VN-Index only
increased by 76% in the past 5 years and by 94% in the
past decade, equaling to 12% and 6.4% compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) respectively. This performance was
quite low, and to some extent, was disappointing by the
investment community in the context of strong
macroeconomic fundamentals recently in Vietnam.
So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020?
This is very challenging question to any research house and
investment institution. However, from our daily data mining
works in supporting our data subscribers, we think it is good
for the market if we can provide data-driven analysis and
views with a hope to better serve our institutional investor
clients and also our growing retail client base who are
brokers, traders and investors subscribing our FiinTrade
Platform.
Our Data Analytics team has analyzed and presented data
in the simplest way to help customers understand the
market performance in 2019 and trying to assessing its
implications for 2020 where it is possible.
The market data mostly covers HOSE, HNX, UPCOM,
except for some noted tables that are made up of data from
HOSE only. For financial data, we covered also public but
unlisted companies.
In this report, we use Level 2 under Industry Classification
Benchmark (ICB) for analyzing the sector performance.
This is our first issue of "FiinPro Data Digest“ under a
series of reports that we plan to carry out in coming time to
serve FiinGroup customers and subscribers of FiinPro
Platform and FiinTrade Platform.
We will endeavor to produce the next reports to help
customers have more in depths of some aspects in the
market from data analytics perspective.
With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength,
we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as
well as information and analysis to our customers.
This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team
under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We
hope this publication will provide you with useful information.
Would you like to have more insights and data supporting
arguments in this Report, please kindly contact us at:
info@fiingroup.vn
Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing!
Data Analytics Team
Financial Information Group
FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
3. 3Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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This return is equal to 12-month deposit rate - a very low risk investment channel.
Figure 1: Price change of popular investment channels in
2019
The VN-Index rose only 7.7% in 2019, volatility is low
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Average 12-month deposit rate of 4 state-owned banks. SJC domestic gold price.
Stock trading provides investors with
opportunities to make a quick profit from
"surfing" and trading many times, not just
buying and holding until the end of the year.
From this perspective, VN-Index in 2019 was
not attractive in terms of volatility with the
peak at 1024.91 point and bottom at 878.22
point, or 16.4% moving range.
Moreover, the average daily trading value
also dropped by 29% to VND4.7 trillion from
VND6.5 trillion in 2018.
Regarding real estate investment channel, if
excluding the price increase, the rental
income for apartments was quite low,
specifically 4.4%/year for luxury, 5.7% for
mid-end and 5.9% for affordable segment,
according to batdongsan.com. This level was
lower than the average return on stock
market in 2019.
VN-Index, 7.7%
USD/VND, -0.06%
Gold Price, 16.5%
Deposite
Rate, 6.83%
Deposite
Rate, 6.73%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
VN-Index USD/VND Gold Price Deposite Rate
4. 4Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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In the context that macroeconomic indicators has been good and are expected to remain healthy,
stock market performance is the disappointment for investors.
Figure 2: Returns of invest channels 2010 - 2019
VN-Index only grew 6.4%/year on average in the past 10 years
Source: FiinPro Platform
Looking at longer horizon, VN-Index
increased by only 76% in the last 5 years
and 94% in the past decade.
The compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of VN-Index in the past 10 years was about
6.4%, higher than 4.8% for gold. In the last 5
years, CAGR of VN-Index was 12%.
In short, in 2019 and the past 5 years, the
stock market was basically not an attractive
investment channel, although many
investors have enjoyed high returns,
especially in 2018.
VN-Index, 94.7%
Gold Price,
59.7%
-35%
5%
45%
85%
125%
VN-Index Gold Price
5. Let's look back 2019 and recent years
with market data and fundamental data
sourced from our FiinPro Platform
6. Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
7. 7Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% while trading volume fell by 15.9% in 2019. Why?
Many factors but the most notable are that domestic investors shifted to corporate bonds while
foreign investors' net buying was very low!
Figure 3: Average daily trading value of HOSE, HNX and UPCOM and VN-Index movements
Liquidity Drained!
Compared to 2018, the average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% to VND4.7 trillion while average
daily trading volume fell 15.9% to 227 million shares.
In terms of transaction type, daily trading value of put-through decreased by 10.8% to VND1.2 trillion,
while order-matching daily trading value fell by 33.5% to VND3.5 trillion.
Source: FiinPro Platform
VN-Index
1204.33
960.99
2.3
0.8
1.0
1.2
2.7
2.2
2.5
4.2
5.2
3.5
2.5
1.0 1.3 1.4
3.0
2.5
3.0
5.1
6.5
4.7
(2)
48
98
148
198
248
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TrillionVND
Avg. Deal Value Avg. Match Value VN-Index
8. 8Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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However, some sectors saw very high liquidity improvement!
Liquidity Drained!
In terms of market cap, the average daily trading value fell by about 34.3% in large-caps, 33.1% in mid-
caps and 16.2% in small-caps.
Sectors with highest drop in liquidity were Financial Services (mainly due to SSI, VND), Communications
(YEG) and Banking (VPB, ACB). In the contrary, Telecommunications (VGI), Construction & Materials
(ROS), Chemicals (PHR) and Retailing (MWG) were the sectors with higher liquidity, in which
Telecommunications soared thanks to VGI’s listing from the end of 2018.
Figure 4: Change in average daily trading value by sector 2019 vs. 2018
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Data includes HOSE. HNX & UPCoM
-58.3%
-55.9%
-51.4%
-46.9%
-40.3%
-38.7%
-34.5%
-32.4%
-32.2%
-27.1%
-17.3%
-16.9%
-8.5%
-5.4%
-4.6%
9.3%
10.8%
44.4%
731.3%
Financial Services
Media
Banks
Basic Resources
Health Care
Oil & Gas
Food & Beverage
Travel & Leisure
Real Estate
Insurance
Industrial Goods & Services
Automobiles & Parts
Technology
Utilities
Personal & Household Goods
Retail
Chemicals
Construction & Materials
Telecommunications
NVL, VIC, VHM
MSN
VGI
ROS
YEG
SSI, VND
9. 9Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
10. 10Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Many outperforming stocks rose sharply in 2019 and they all had their own stories!
Top Gainers and Losers
Source: FiinPro Platform
Every outperformer had their own story. VCB still maintained its upward performance of 70% last year; BID
rose by 39% with nearly US$1 billion of fresh money from Korea; Technology (FPT and CMC) was heavily
bought by being a leader in the trend of digital transformation and software outsourcing; and VGI (Viettel
Global) on UPCoM also jumped sharply.
Besides the above-mentioned industries, Retail had 23.3% price growth despite strong fluctuations during the
year while some sectors also posted high growth such as: (i) Real Estate (+17.8%); (ii) Tourism &
Entertainment (+13.3%); (iii) Utilities (+11.7%).
Figure 5: Top outperforming sectors in 2019
Banks, 25.9%
Automobiles &
Parts, 39.2%
Telecommunications,
64.5%
Technology, 49.6%
VN-Index, 7.7%
Banks Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Technology VN-Index
FPT +58.1%
CMG +61.5%
TCH +93.4%
DRC +14%
VCB +70.1%
BID +38.8%
VGI +80.3%
11. 11Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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However, 2019 was a difficult year for those who owned Insurance, Oil & Gas and Financial Services i.e.
securities firms and funds
Top Gainers and Losers
Source: FiinPro Platform
Draining market liquidity and lower investment revenue resulted in sharp fall of 21 out of 29 stocks in Financial
Services, including leading stocks such as SSI (-39.1%) or VCI (-34%).
World oil prices were complicated last year causing disadvantages for Oil & Gas, especially Oil & Gas
Exploitation. Although PLX rose by 9.9%, strong influence from the falling of BSR (-41.1%) and OIL (-46.6%)
led to overall decline of the sector.
Figure 6: Top underperformers in 2019
Insurance,
-14.9%
Oil & Gas,
-13.6%
Financial
Services,
-10.0%
VN-Index, 7.7%
Insurance Oil & Gas Financial Services VN-Index
VCI -34%
SSI -39,2%
BSR -41,1%
OIL -46,6%
BVH -21,9%
PTI -5,2%
12. 12Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: This is order-matching and no zero-sum game data on HOSE only, VN-Index change (monthly)
Local investors seem to be gainers eventually in 2019 with buy low and sell high
Figure 7: Net buying/selling value by foreign investors vs. local investors on HOSE in 2019
On HOSE, foreign investors was in opposite position, they bought high sold low.
In 2019, local investors sold Real Estate, Banking, Food & Beverages stocks while buying stocks of
Construction & Materials.
2.0%
6.0%
1.6%
-0.1%
-2.0%
-1.0%
4.4%
-0.8%
1.3%
0.2%
-2.8%
-1.0%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Netbuy/sellvalue(BnVND)
Foreign Investors Local Investors VN-Index Change
Local investors net sold VND6.8 tn of shares in 9/12 months
14. 14Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Figure 8: Foreign net buying/selling by sectors in 2019 vs. 2018
Unit: trillion VND
Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCOM
Foreign investors net bought VND7.3bn of Vietnam shares in 2019, including VND5.3bn of
shares of VIC, and thus the foreign net buying value of other stocks was modest!
Real Estate, Banking, Financial Services, Retail, Foods & Beverages were still net purchased by foreign
investors, but the net buying value in 2019 was much lower than those in 2018 and 2017.
Foreign investors net bought VND764.3bn of Insurance stocks (+58.3% y/y) though Insurance was the worst-
performing sector in 2019. Oil & Gas and IT recorded VND1,900bn and VND270.2bn in foreign net buying
respectively following foreign net selling in 2018.
(1.5)
(2.2)
(0.2)
(0.4)
(0.5)
0.5
2.3
4.1
3.8
(0.7)
22.3
(1.6)
(1.1)
(0.7)
(0.6)
(0.5)
0.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
3.1
Travel & Leisure
Construction & Materials
Health Care
Chemicals
Basic Resources
Insurance
Industrial Goods & Services
Financial Services
Banks
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
2019
2018
15. 15Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Large caps were still preferred by foreign investors in the past 3 years. Foreign net
buying value totaled at VND108.8 trillion (over US$5bn) in recent 10 years. So who were
net sellers?
Figure 9: Foreign net buying/selling by stock marcap size
Unit: trillion VND
Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
(8.5)
21.4
35.9
6.2
1.3
7.4
8.3
2.0
1.2
0.4
(0.9)
(0.8)
2016 2017 2018 2019
TrillionVND
Largecap Midcap Smallcap
FOL regulation
loosening
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM; year-end marcap: Largecap: > VND10tn, Midcap: VND100bn ~ 10tn, Smallcap: < VND1tn
Large cap & mid cap stocks enjoyed foreign net buying while small caps were net sold by foreign
investors for a second consecutive year in 2019 with the net selling value of VND800bn in 2019
vs. VND900bn in 2018.
In 2019, foreign investors net bought VND2trillion worth of mid cap stocks, equivalent to 32.3% of
their net buying value of blue chips. The ratio was lower at 23.1% in 2018.
16. 16Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
17. 17Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Only 21% or 7 out of 33 equity funds tracked by FiinPro outperformed VN-Index, but these 7 funds hold
a combined 1.84% of total AUMs of 33 funds. Data was updated as of Nov 29, 2019.
Figure 10: NAV growth of ten equity funds
79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market!
Sour: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data compiled from 33 equity funds as of 29/11/2019
33 equity funds (bond-focused funds excluded) tracked by FiinPro had total AUM of US$3.1bn as of Nov
29, 2019.
VEIL, the largest Vietnam-focused closed-end fund with US$1.5bn in AUM, had NAV growth of 8.32%.
VOF, the second largest one with nearly US$930mn in AUM, reported NAV decline of 1.71% while
TVAM Growth Fund had the strongest NAV decline of 13.3%.
16.46%
13.47%
12.48%
9.70% 9.27%
8.32%
4.36%
1.82%
0.00%
-1.71%
VN-Index: +8.86%
VN30-Index: +3.72%
Top 5 funds by NAV growth
Top 5 funds by NAVs
18. 18Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Equity funds uploaded Banking, Real Estate, Basic Resources, Personal & Household Goods stocks
while cutting portfolios in Travel & Leisure and Utilities.
Figure 11: Top holdings of equity funds by sectors & stocks
Unit: trillion VND
79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data compiled from 26 equity funds (excluding VEIL & Vietnam Equity (UCITS) Fund of Dragon Capital) as of Nov 29, 2019
Equity funds net bought VND1.55 trillion worth of local shares in 11M/2019, with TCB having the biggest
foreign net buying value of VND502.7bn, followed by PVS (VND319.7 bn), and HPG (VND417.7 bn).
HPG was the top holding by equity funds with a combined value of VND3.3tn by the end of Nov 2019.
3.3
2.4
2.2
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.7
2.9
1.9
1.9
2.2
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.5
2019 2018
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1.3
2.4
4.4
4.6
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
2.1
3.7
3.6
Travel & Leisure
Insurance
Utilities
Oil & Gas
Financial Services
Construction & Materials
Food & Beverage
Industrial Goods &…
Real Estate
Banks
2018
2019
19. 19Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
20. 20Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Net buying value by prop trading totaled VND308.2bn (nearly US$13.1mn) in 2019, reversing from net-
selling position in the previous four consecutive years.
Figure 12: Net prop trading value in 2015-2019
Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE only
(922.4)
(379.8)
(1,366.8)
(1,280.2)
308.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BillionVND
Net selling of VND3.9tn in 4 consecutive years
Unit: billion VND
The net buying value by prop trading was modest but this indicated their view about market outlook.
21. 21Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Food & Beverages and Banking recorded net buying value of prop trading while shares of Financial
Services were net sold by them.
Figure 13: Net buying/selling value of prop trading by sectors
Unit: trillion VND
Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Data covered HOSE only
Food & Beverages shares have been steadily net bought by prop traders at securities companies since
2016, with the 2019 net buying value topping at VND1.74 trillion, +10.6 times against 2018.
Prop traders net purchased VND407.3 billion worth of Banking shares in 2019 after maintaining net-
selling position in the four preceding years.
Financial Services stocks were sold for the fifth consecutive year in 2019, with the net selling value of
nearly VND2.4 trillion.
(1.8)
0.2
0.2
(0.3)
0.2
(0.2)
(0.1)
0.2
(2.5)
(0.2)
(0.1)
(0.1)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.7
Financial Services
Utilities
Industrial Goods & Services
Automobiles & Parts
Travel & Leisure
Construction & Materials
Real Estate
Oil & Gas
Banks
Food & Beverage
2019
2018
22. 22Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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Insiders also on Net Buy!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM
SBT had internal shareholders bought at most. Internal shareholders net bought 80 million shares from
early Sept to mid-Oct 2019 during which SBT shares bounced back 13.3%.
ROS and ACB shares were net sold by internal shareholders at most.
Trading by internal shareholders was mostly seen in Food & Beverages, Real Estate and Construction
& Materials.
Figure 13: Top 10 internal shareholders’ trading by sectors by volume
137.8
(38.3)
(26.8)
(20.1)
(13.8)
(9.3)
7.4
16.0
50.8
72.6
111.3
Total
Construction & Materials
Banks
Industrial Goods & Services
Travel & Leisure
Automobiles & Parts
Utilities
Financial Services
Basic Resources
Real Estate
Food & Beverage
24. 24Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise!
Unit: million USD
ETFs increased their assets in Vietnam by US$149.2mn (nearly VND3.5tn) in 2019 (despite net outflows
in global markets)
Figure 15: Vietnam assets value in portfolios of ETFs
Source: FiinGroup
Notes: Data from 6 biggest ETFs having assets in Vietnam
Taking advantage of not being subject to FOL regulations, two local ETFs (VFMVN30 and SSIAM
VNX50) increased their Vietnam portfolios by a combined US$98.9mn in 2019.
Assets in Vietnam by three of the other four ETFs rose US$73mn. iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF is the
only ETF which cut assets in Vietnam, to US$58.7mn by end-2019 from US$81.4mn a year earlier.
283.0 280.2
436.5
502.9
24.0
7.8
282.97 280.24 271.85
58.69
23.68 7.8
Xtrackers FTSE
Vietnam Swap
UCITS ETF 1C
VFMVN30 VanEck Vectors
Vietnam ETF
iShares MSCI
Frontier 100 ETF
Premia MSCI
Vietnam ETF
SSIAM VNX50
Total NAV (mn US$) Vietnam Assets (mn US$)
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ETFs continued to buy Real estate
ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise!
Source: FiinGroup
Notes: Data compiled from 6 ETF
Real Estate stocks, led by VIC, VHM, VRE and NVL, were still favored by ETFs, having a combined
36.3% weight in their assets in Vietnam by value.
Food & Beverages, Banking and Basic Resources followed with respective weights of 22%, 14.2% and
6.4%.
Figure 16: Top 10 Vietnam stocks held by ETFs
Unit: mn USD
136.7 138.0
126.0
74.2 75.5
68.5 70.6
64.3
57.4
23.0
113.7 116.3
81.1
57.4
72.0
39.6
60.1
11.0
48.9
0.0
VIC VNM VHM VRE MSN VCB HPG VJC NVL TCB
2019 2018
27. 27Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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Investors preferred bonds issued by public companies to new share issues
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Issuance by listed companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM
64.6%35.1%
90.9
69.9
29.7
60.4
50.7
74.7
86.6
128.9
187.6
209.0
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
0
50
100
150
200
Bonds Issue IPO Shares Issue
+47.4%
+15.9%
+48.9%
+45.5%
+11.4%Unit: trillion VND
Investor switched
their preference to
c-bonds: Listed
companies raised
VND13tn or around
US$5bn via c-
bonds. This is
attributed to the
dwindling market
liquidity!
Figure 17: Capital mobilization on stock market in 2010-2019
Value of additionally-issued shares grows modestly: The value of additional shares issued on the
stock market totaled at VND73.4 trillion or nearly US$3.2bn (+9.2% y/y).
Value of IPOs is tiny: The stock market had just few small IPOs which mobilized over VND600 billion,
equivalent to 0.85% of the 2018 value and hitting the lowest level since 2013. IPOs of giant SOEs such
as Mobifone, VNPT, Satra have not yet taken place as planned while there was no remarkable IPOs by
private companies.
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Table 1: Capital mobilization structure in 2019
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Capital mobilization value by companies listed on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM
Unit: trillion VND
Majority of capitals raised through the stock market came from share sales through
private offerings and to foreign strategic investors!
The value of VND56.8trillion from private placements was mostly contributed by share sales to foreign
strategic investors, including VND20.3tn in BIDV (paid by Hana Bank for a 15% stake); VND17tn in VIC;
VND6tn in VCB; VND4tn in BVH and VND3tn in MPC.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
IPO 1.1 3.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 7.9 6.3 11.5 32.4 73.7 0.6
Bonds Issue 9.0 19.4 7.5 8.7 1.2 7.8 14.4 16.1 40.2 46.7 135.0
Banks - 8.6 - - - - - 7.6 8.3 18.8 99.9
Real Estate 2.0 1.6 1.3 6.3 0.1 3.2 4.4 3.7 19.0 16.3 14.7
Shares Issue 29.1 67.8 59.5 21.0 58.6 35.0 54.0 58.9 56.3 67.2 73.4
Private placement 15.6 25.4 46.0 12.0 40.6 22.5 32.5 40.6 30.0 47.2 56.8
ESOP 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 2.6
Issuance for creditors - - - - - - - 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.2
Share auctions 5.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 - 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.1 0.4
Rights issue 7.9 40.3 12.7 8.1 16.7 11.9 20.0 13.6 21.9 15.1 13.4
Margin loans 22.9 25.2 39.8 47.5 55.2
Total 39.3 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0
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Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Figure18: Value of c-bonds by sectors
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: C-bonds issued by companies listed on HOSE, HNX & UPCoM,
excluding banks
Listed companies switched to issue c-bonds, instead of additional shares, to finance
growth!
The value of corporate bonds issued by listed
companies hit the highest ever level at VND135 trillion
in 2019, +209% y/y as a result of Circular No. 22 which
increases the high risk ratio in bank loans for real
estate projects to 200% from the earlier 150% and
lowers the ratio of short-term capital for medium- and
long-term loans.
In 2019, the c-bond issue value was equivalent to
13.87% of total loans disbursed by local banks, higher
than the ratio of 6.23% in 2018 and 4% in 2017.
If banks were excluded, 42% of bond issuers were real
estate companies in 2019, with bond coupon rates
popular at 10%-13% per year, or 450-650bps higher
than 2018 rates and 100-200bps higher than lending
interest rates. This is likely a burden for real estate
companies given the current unfavorable market
conditions.
Real Estate,
41.9%
Construction
& Materials,
19.6%
Financial
Services,
15.1%
Travel &
Leisure, 3.7%
Basic
Resources,
2.4% Other, 17.3%
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Despite the rising value of c-bonds, financial leverage ratio at listed companies declined
in recent two years due to their less borrowing from banks while the quality of their
profits and cash flows is deteriorating (see next slides)!
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Figure 19: Financial leverage ratio (Debts/Equity) of listed companies
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data is from 1019 listed firms on HOSE, HXN, UPCOM, excluding banks, insurances and data is as of end-Q3/2019
0.65
0.58
0.70
0.63
0.65
0.71 0.72
0.67
0.60
0.54
0.63
0.66
0.61
0.56
0.57
0.73
0.79
0.73 0.73
0.78
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.73
0.74
0.71
0.69
0.68
0.65
Real Estate Total
32. Forming market views is challenging to any
research and investment institutions
We provide some data-evidenced analysis in
next pages with a hope to assist your
investment view formation process!
33. Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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This is the most positive factor for the market potential in 2020. However, the key points lies on the
quality of corporate’s profit growth in the coming quarters to lure cash flow return.
Figure 20: P/E & VN-Index in the last 3 years
Market valuation is currently the same level as when VN-Index hovered around 700
in mid-2017 before a strong rebound!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
VN-Index, 741.91
VN-Index, 960.99
P/E , 15.9
P/E , 15.7
15
17
19
21
23
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
P/E
VN-Index
VN-Index P/E
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
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In the last 3 years, P/B reached the peak of 3.4x in mid-April/2018 and then declined to 2.3x by end-
2019, this is also P/B level when VN-Index was at 700 in 2017.
Figure 21: P/B & VN-Index in the last 3 years
PB tells the same story
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: P/B of companies listed on HOSE
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
VN-Index P/B
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Vietnam stock market is relatively attractive in comparison with other regional peers,
especially when the country’s economic growth is considered!
Figure 22: P/E & P/B of Vietnam stock market vs. regional peers
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform, Bloomberg & MSCI
P/E of Vietnam’s stock market stood at 15.7x in 2019, higher than the average P/E of EMs (12.8x), but it
was still below its average level in the three preceding years.
Vietnam stocks were more expensive than Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but cheaper than other markets in
ASEAN: Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.
15.7
11.5
13.7
18.9
17.3
19.9
18.3
12.8
Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Emerging
Market
P/E
2.3
1.0
1.6 1.7
2.8
2.1
1.6
Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia
P/B
37. 37Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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Quarterly net revenue and EBITDA growth (YoY) has seen a gradual decline in the last 6
quarters!
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
Figure 25: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
13.7%
24.3%
33.5% 32.7%
22.4% 22.6%
19.3%
11.4% 11.4%
14.9%
6.9%
18.4%
9.0%
17.9%
18.1%
16.5%
15.9%
6.5% -1.5%
-3.7%
10.8%
6.4%
Net Sales Growth (VG inclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG inclusive)
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Although net profit grew by 15.4%, EBIT only rose by 6.2% in Q3/2019 as many companies booked
irregular income.
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
Figure 26: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
28.2%
28.7%
26.1%
27.4%
32.4%
19.2%
8.3%
-0.2% 0.6%
13.2%
15.4%
22.3%
4.2%
22.7% 15.1% 21.5%
22.1%
6.5%
-1.4%
-7.9%
15.2%
6.2%
Net Earnings Growth (VG inclusive) EBIT Growth (VG inclusive)
Non-recurring incomes
by PHR, MSN, HVN
Impacted by Real State &
Basic Resource sectors’
decline
Non-recurring incomes
by GMD, Masan groups
Impacted by Steel
sector’s decline
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Excluding VinGroup, both revenue growth and EBITDA growth showed clearer fall and EBITDA even
saw negative growth in Q2 and Q3/2019.
The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies!
Figure 27: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
- VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
11.4%
22.0%
31.3%
33.0%
18.9% 20.6%
18.7%
10.2%
14.2%
12.0%
5.2%
16.8%
4.5%
14.5%
17.3%
14.5%
13.2%
8.3%
0.2% 1.4%
-1.4%
-3.9%
Net Sales Growth (VG exclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG exclusive)
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Similarly, when the VinGroup companies are removed, despite net profit growth, EBIT growth fell by
6.8%. It was the sixth consecutive quarter that EBIT growth slowed down or declined.
Figure 28: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for 2 periods.
- VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF
The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies!
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
30.7% 30.9%
23.0%
29.0%
26.2%
20.2%
7.9%
-4.5%
1.6%
4.5%
14.3%
22.4%
-3.4%
18.0%
13.2%
16.9%
20.1%
9.3%
2.2%
0.2% -0.5%
-6.8%
Net Earnings Growth (VG exclusive) EBIT Growth (VG exclusive)
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Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
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Our calculation shows that VN30 group (accounting for 80% of VN-Index’s market cap) is forecasted to
have an EPS growth of only about 5.4%!
2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group
Source: FiinPro Platform
Figure 27: Forecast of EPS growth (adjusted) of VN30 group
The calculation was based on analysis reports of the securities companies and business plans
announced by companies through 2019 AGMs with adjustment in number of outstanding shares to
eliminate the impact of issuances to increase capital.
Analysts forecast that the VN30's EPS will increase by 5.4%, growing significantly slower than
previous years, while according to companies’ plans, this figure is even -2.1%.
2,539.6
2,927.5
3,208.7
3,381.5
3,169.2
15.3%
9.6%
5.4%
-1.2%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Analysts
consensus
Management
est.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2019
EPS EPS growth
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Table of Contents
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Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 – 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
46. The future of the VN-Index, in our own
opinion, is a direct function of cash flows
from two main investor groups: foreign
investors (mainly institutions) and domestic
investors (mainly individuals)
47. Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
1 Foreign
fund
flows
• The main drivers for the uptrend momentum and
liquidity of VN-Index in previous years were the
foreign capital inflow and behavior of domestic
investors. Because the market is a "zero-sum
game", liquidity rises, or the market has an
opportunity to increase when the demand from
foreign investors is higher than the available
supply by domestic investors.
• In 2019, new cash flows into the stock market
were very limited. This was a key factor leading to
liquidity slump and VN-Index growth of only 7.7%
with low volatility.
• Data shows that, basically, the Index tends to rise
whenever foreigners net buy and vice versa,
especially when we look at monthly correlation!
• In 2019, they net bought only VND7.3 trillion
(about US$310 million) on all 3 exchanges.
Excluding VIC, net buying fell to only VND2.3
trillion. This was a very small number compared to
VND28.4 trillion in net buying in 2017 and
VND43.3 trillion in 2018.
• Given US$2.7 billion FII flowing in Vietnam in
2019, we can see that foreign capital mainly
flowed into government bonds, corporate bonds,
strategic capital investment or M&A. Certainly,
capital flowed into unlisted businesses rather than
buying shares on exchanges.
• Besides, despite the downtrend of the ETF model
in the international market, in Vietnam, another
source of foreign capital is from ETFs. In 2019, the
size of the 6 funds we track increased by about
US$149 million.
• The macroeconomic context and the exchange
rate are considered very stable by independent
domestic and foreign research organizations.
Working with many big investors interested in
Vietnam's stock market, we believe that FII will
continue to increase this year and the interest will
shift gradually from the bond channel to the stock
market.
• Moreover, if we follow margin by Korean
securities companies with their capital raising
plan, we will see new money for market this year.
• ETF will likely continue to thrive in 2020,
especially the upgrading story of Vietnam stock
market can be realized in the coming year and
thus attracting higher proportion of capital
allocation by emerging market-focused funds
when Vietnam reaches this status.
• Although it may not be large, it is likely that a part
of the cash flow into Vietnamese stocks in 20202
ahead of Emerging market upgrade.
• However, the bottom line, according to many
large investment funds who are our customers, is
that the market must have more quality goods,
especially from equitization of attractive SOEs
and IPOs of large private enterprises. The reason
is that the level of foreign ownership in the stock
market now is very high, especially on HOSE and
therefore the market needs new and quality
goods.
POSITIVE
48. Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
2 Domestic
fund flow
• Domestic cash flow includes direct cash flow
and indirect cash flow!
• The direct cash flow is (i) the ability to transfer
money from cash or savings to securities
channels and (ii) the possibility of moving
from alternative investment channels such as
real estate and more recently corporate bonds
as we have pointed out.
• The indirect cash flow is credit growth or M2.
Currently, credit is still tight with the growth
limit of about 14%, mainly due to consumer
and retail loan growth. According to our
calculation, excluding credit growth for
individuals (most home loans), credit growth
for the business sector would grow by only 7-
8% in the past 2 years.
• For business sector, this growth is very low in
our opinion. Certainly, many businesses have
chosen bond channels and if including the
amount of capital mobilized through bond
channels, the total debt growth of businesses
is about 10%.
• Cash flow from savings: The shift from term
deposits (with interest rate of 7% for 1-year
term), certificates of deposit (about 9%) and
corporate bonds (equal to term deposit rate
+4%, meaning about 11%) is a challenge for the
securities channel. However, given the current
performance of banks and money market
movements (interbank interest rates and
government bonds), we expect interest rates to
fall by 50 to 100 basis points, in line with
operating direction of the Government and the
State Bank of Vietnam.
• Cash flow from certificates of deposits:
Certificates of deposits of consumer finance
companies with quite attractive interest rates at
9-11% have increased sharply over the past
years to meet their very high average growth.
However, our data indicate that this capital
mobilization channel has cooled down after a
fairly hot growing period.
• Cash flow from bonds: Bonds of public
companies alone attracted more than VND135
trillion in 2019. With regulations tending to
tighten this investment channel to ensure
sustainable development as well as some
businesses having liquidity problems with
condotel mobilization products, we believe that
investors are more aware of the risks of
corporate bonds and similar forms of capital
mobilization like condotel.
DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST
49. Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
3 Quality
stock
supply
• To attract foreign money (offshore and
onshore), the key point is that the market
must have a new quality supply. Year 2017
and 2018 were typical with series of newly
listed stocks such as ACV, TCB, HDB, VHM
and Viettel Post. Listing of these stocks
created a good supply for not only domestic
and foreign investors but also catalyst to
facilitate trading of related industries.
• As the data indicates, in 2019, the number
of large IPOs that attracted the attention of
investors was not there!
• Looking back at 2019, there were no big and
attractive newly listed stocks. Certainly, this is a
"chicken and egg" story. In 2020, it is expected some
companies will be forced to go listing such as banking
stocks. According to the Prime Minister's decision, all
banks will have to list their shares on stock market by
the end of 2020.
• According to our data, there are currently 12
commercial banks with total legal capital of about
VND100 trillion, or US$4.2 billion. Assuming these
banks are listed at 1.4x P/B (the average of 18 listed
banks), the total capitalization will increase by US$5.9
billion. However, we find it difficult for Agribank with
charter capital of VND29 trillion to list in 2020 and not
100% of the shares will be free floated.
• Regarding supply of stocks from equitization or
divestment of state-owned enterprises, we think that
2020 will be pretty quiet as big names expected by
domestic and foreign investors like Mobifone, Satra, etc.
will unlikely be listed in this pivotal year.
NOT
POSITIVE
50. 50Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
4 Corporate
Earnings
Prospect
and Quality
• Corporate earnings i.e. revenues and
profits have grown steadily in terms of
accounting data.
• However, quarterly EBITDA, EBIT and
CFO data shows that the quality of
corporate profit has been deteriorating
which can be seen not only in the leading
businesses but also the rest of the market.
• The data also indicates that the EPS
growth in 2019 is estimated at as low as
5.4%, the lowest in 5 years. Basically, in
Vietnam if a company or a sector’s growth
is below GDP expansion it means no
growth!
• Analysts and media all believe that Vietnam has a
very good growth potential thanks to the rise of local
consumption as well as incomes by middle class.
Basically, we are in line with them.
• However, when assessing the quality of growth and
especially the quality of profit of large businesses as
well as non-financial sector, our data gives the
opposite opinion, at least in the last 4-6 quarters as
shown in this report.
• Surprisingly, the "champions" and "proxies"
representing Vietnam's "consumption growth" in
various popular categories such as Vinamilk (VNM),
Mobile World (MWG), Masan (MSN) to emerging
stars such as Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS) also had
Q3/2019 revenues declining or slowing down
compared to the same period in 2018 and declining
from Q2/2019 . For MWG, the data also indicates
that Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) continuously
declined from 38% to minus 10% in Q3/2019.
NEED
FURTHER
TRACKING
AND
EVALUATION
51. You can access this data
on our FiinPro Platform
and many other data about
nearly 3,000 public
companies with many
other great features!
Please visit www.fiinpro.vn
for further information and
trial
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52. And if you are subscribing
our FiinTrade Platform, we
have standardised the
data for your great
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experience.
FiinTrade is considered as
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53. 53Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
FiinGroup (previously StoxPlus) is a Vietnam’s leading provider of financial data,
business information, industry research and other data-driven analytics services
About FiinGroup JSC
FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
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54. ‹#›
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54
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55
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Benefits from subscribing our FiinConnex
56
57. ‹#›
We offer both technology-based reports and analyst-based
reports from our aggregated source of 1 mil+ registered
enterprises in Vietnam. Types of Reports:
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57
Private Company
Research Report
Business Profile
• Key business activities
• Legal Rep.
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Operational Data
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Background
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58. Customised Research
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15
Industry Report
These are on-the-shelf industry reports providing clients with
comprehensive information and in-depth analysis reviewed
by industry experts including competitive landscape, key
players, and key development trends to help assess the
market's attractiveness and investment opportunities.
A selection of sectors we cover
Financial Services Construction & Materials
Cement
Additives and Concrete
Admixtures
Home Builders
Industrial Goods
Containers & Packaging
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