SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 59
1Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Vietnam Stock Market: 2019 Insights and 2020
Outlook from Data Analytics Perspective
The Powerful Product Suite of FiinGroup
FiinPro Data Digest I Issue #1 I January 10, 2020
Prepared by: Data Analytics Team
Only for the subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform
@ 2019 FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of FiinGroup, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced,
repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording,
taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher.
2Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Preface
Dear valued customers:
The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock
market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth.
Looking back to a longer horizontal, VN-Index only
increased by 76% in the past 5 years and by 94% in the
past decade, equaling to 12% and 6.4% compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) respectively. This performance was
quite low, and to some extent, was disappointing by the
investment community in the context of strong
macroeconomic fundamentals recently in Vietnam.
So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020?
This is very challenging question to any research house and
investment institution. However, from our daily data mining
works in supporting our data subscribers, we think it is good
for the market if we can provide data-driven analysis and
views with a hope to better serve our institutional investor
clients and also our growing retail client base who are
brokers, traders and investors subscribing our FiinTrade
Platform.
Our Data Analytics team has analyzed and presented data
in the simplest way to help customers understand the
market performance in 2019 and trying to assessing its
implications for 2020 where it is possible.
The market data mostly covers HOSE, HNX, UPCOM,
except for some noted tables that are made up of data from
HOSE only. For financial data, we covered also public but
unlisted companies.
In this report, we use Level 2 under Industry Classification
Benchmark (ICB) for analyzing the sector performance.
This is our first issue of "FiinPro Data Digest“ under a
series of reports that we plan to carry out in coming time to
serve FiinGroup customers and subscribers of FiinPro
Platform and FiinTrade Platform.
We will endeavor to produce the next reports to help
customers have more in depths of some aspects in the
market from data analytics perspective.
With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength,
we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as
well as information and analysis to our customers.
This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team
under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We
hope this publication will provide you with useful information.
Would you like to have more insights and data supporting
arguments in this Report, please kindly contact us at:
info@fiingroup.vn
Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing!
Data Analytics Team
Financial Information Group
FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
3Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
This return is equal to 12-month deposit rate - a very low risk investment channel.
Figure 1: Price change of popular investment channels in
2019
The VN-Index rose only 7.7% in 2019, volatility is low
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Average 12-month deposit rate of 4 state-owned banks. SJC domestic gold price.
 Stock trading provides investors with
opportunities to make a quick profit from
"surfing" and trading many times, not just
buying and holding until the end of the year.
From this perspective, VN-Index in 2019 was
not attractive in terms of volatility with the
peak at 1024.91 point and bottom at 878.22
point, or 16.4% moving range.
 Moreover, the average daily trading value
also dropped by 29% to VND4.7 trillion from
VND6.5 trillion in 2018.
 Regarding real estate investment channel, if
excluding the price increase, the rental
income for apartments was quite low,
specifically 4.4%/year for luxury, 5.7% for
mid-end and 5.9% for affordable segment,
according to batdongsan.com. This level was
lower than the average return on stock
market in 2019.
VN-Index, 7.7%
USD/VND, -0.06%
Gold Price, 16.5%
Deposite
Rate, 6.83%
Deposite
Rate, 6.73%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
VN-Index USD/VND Gold Price Deposite Rate
4Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
In the context that macroeconomic indicators has been good and are expected to remain healthy,
stock market performance is the disappointment for investors.
Figure 2: Returns of invest channels 2010 - 2019
VN-Index only grew 6.4%/year on average in the past 10 years
Source: FiinPro Platform
 Looking at longer horizon, VN-Index
increased by only 76% in the last 5 years
and 94% in the past decade.
 The compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of VN-Index in the past 10 years was about
6.4%, higher than 4.8% for gold. In the last 5
years, CAGR of VN-Index was 12%.
 In short, in 2019 and the past 5 years, the
stock market was basically not an attractive
investment channel, although many
investors have enjoyed high returns,
especially in 2018.
VN-Index, 94.7%
Gold Price,
59.7%
-35%
5%
45%
85%
125%
VN-Index Gold Price
Let's look back 2019 and recent years
with market data and fundamental data
sourced from our FiinPro Platform
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
7Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% while trading volume fell by 15.9% in 2019. Why?
Many factors but the most notable are that domestic investors shifted to corporate bonds while
foreign investors' net buying was very low!
Figure 3: Average daily trading value of HOSE, HNX and UPCOM and VN-Index movements
Liquidity Drained!
 Compared to 2018, the average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% to VND4.7 trillion while average
daily trading volume fell 15.9% to 227 million shares.
 In terms of transaction type, daily trading value of put-through decreased by 10.8% to VND1.2 trillion,
while order-matching daily trading value fell by 33.5% to VND3.5 trillion.
Source: FiinPro Platform
VN-Index
1204.33
960.99
2.3
0.8
1.0
1.2
2.7
2.2
2.5
4.2
5.2
3.5
2.5
1.0 1.3 1.4
3.0
2.5
3.0
5.1
6.5
4.7
(2)
48
98
148
198
248
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
TrillionVND
Avg. Deal Value Avg. Match Value VN-Index
8Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
However, some sectors saw very high liquidity improvement!
Liquidity Drained!
 In terms of market cap, the average daily trading value fell by about 34.3% in large-caps, 33.1% in mid-
caps and 16.2% in small-caps.
 Sectors with highest drop in liquidity were Financial Services (mainly due to SSI, VND), Communications
(YEG) and Banking (VPB, ACB). In the contrary, Telecommunications (VGI), Construction & Materials
(ROS), Chemicals (PHR) and Retailing (MWG) were the sectors with higher liquidity, in which
Telecommunications soared thanks to VGI’s listing from the end of 2018.
Figure 4: Change in average daily trading value by sector 2019 vs. 2018
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Data includes HOSE. HNX & UPCoM
-58.3%
-55.9%
-51.4%
-46.9%
-40.3%
-38.7%
-34.5%
-32.4%
-32.2%
-27.1%
-17.3%
-16.9%
-8.5%
-5.4%
-4.6%
9.3%
10.8%
44.4%
731.3%
Financial Services
Media
Banks
Basic Resources
Health Care
Oil & Gas
Food & Beverage
Travel & Leisure
Real Estate
Insurance
Industrial Goods & Services
Automobiles & Parts
Technology
Utilities
Personal & Household Goods
Retail
Chemicals
Construction & Materials
Telecommunications
NVL, VIC, VHM
MSN
VGI
ROS
YEG
SSI, VND
9Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
10Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Many outperforming stocks rose sharply in 2019 and they all had their own stories!
Top Gainers and Losers
Source: FiinPro Platform
 Every outperformer had their own story. VCB still maintained its upward performance of 70% last year; BID
rose by 39% with nearly US$1 billion of fresh money from Korea; Technology (FPT and CMC) was heavily
bought by being a leader in the trend of digital transformation and software outsourcing; and VGI (Viettel
Global) on UPCoM also jumped sharply.
 Besides the above-mentioned industries, Retail had 23.3% price growth despite strong fluctuations during the
year while some sectors also posted high growth such as: (i) Real Estate (+17.8%); (ii) Tourism &
Entertainment (+13.3%); (iii) Utilities (+11.7%).
Figure 5: Top outperforming sectors in 2019
Banks, 25.9%
Automobiles &
Parts, 39.2%
Telecommunications,
64.5%
Technology, 49.6%
VN-Index, 7.7%
Banks Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Technology VN-Index
FPT +58.1%
CMG +61.5%
TCH +93.4%
DRC +14%
VCB +70.1%
BID +38.8%
VGI +80.3%
11Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
However, 2019 was a difficult year for those who owned Insurance, Oil & Gas and Financial Services i.e.
securities firms and funds
Top Gainers and Losers
Source: FiinPro Platform
 Draining market liquidity and lower investment revenue resulted in sharp fall of 21 out of 29 stocks in Financial
Services, including leading stocks such as SSI (-39.1%) or VCI (-34%).
 World oil prices were complicated last year causing disadvantages for Oil & Gas, especially Oil & Gas
Exploitation. Although PLX rose by 9.9%, strong influence from the falling of BSR (-41.1%) and OIL (-46.6%)
led to overall decline of the sector.
Figure 6: Top underperformers in 2019
Insurance,
-14.9%
Oil & Gas,
-13.6%
Financial
Services,
-10.0%
VN-Index, 7.7%
Insurance Oil & Gas Financial Services VN-Index
VCI -34%
SSI -39,2%
BSR -41,1%
OIL -46,6%
BVH -21,9%
PTI -5,2%
12Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
13Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: This is order-matching and no zero-sum game data on HOSE only, VN-Index change (monthly)
Local investors seem to be gainers eventually in 2019 with buy low and sell high
Figure 7: Net buying/selling value by foreign investors vs. local investors on HOSE in 2019
 On HOSE, foreign investors was in opposite position, they bought high sold low.
 In 2019, local investors sold Real Estate, Banking, Food & Beverages stocks while buying stocks of
Construction & Materials.
2.0%
6.0%
1.6%
-0.1%
-2.0%
-1.0%
4.4%
-0.8%
1.3%
0.2%
-2.8%
-1.0%
-7%
-5%
-3%
-1%
1%
3%
5%
7%
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Netbuy/sellvalue(BnVND)
Foreign Investors Local Investors VN-Index Change
Local investors net sold VND6.8 tn of shares in 9/12 months
14Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Figure 8: Foreign net buying/selling by sectors in 2019 vs. 2018
Unit: trillion VND
Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCOM
Foreign investors net bought VND7.3bn of Vietnam shares in 2019, including VND5.3bn of
shares of VIC, and thus the foreign net buying value of other stocks was modest!
 Real Estate, Banking, Financial Services, Retail, Foods & Beverages were still net purchased by foreign
investors, but the net buying value in 2019 was much lower than those in 2018 and 2017.
 Foreign investors net bought VND764.3bn of Insurance stocks (+58.3% y/y) though Insurance was the worst-
performing sector in 2019. Oil & Gas and IT recorded VND1,900bn and VND270.2bn in foreign net buying
respectively following foreign net selling in 2018.
(1.5)
(2.2)
(0.2)
(0.4)
(0.5)
0.5
2.3
4.1
3.8
(0.7)
22.3
(1.6)
(1.1)
(0.7)
(0.6)
(0.5)
0.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.9
3.1
Travel & Leisure
Construction & Materials
Health Care
Chemicals
Basic Resources
Insurance
Industrial Goods & Services
Financial Services
Banks
Oil & Gas
Real Estate
2019
2018
15Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Large caps were still preferred by foreign investors in the past 3 years. Foreign net
buying value totaled at VND108.8 trillion (over US$5bn) in recent 10 years. So who were
net sellers?
Figure 9: Foreign net buying/selling by stock marcap size
Unit: trillion VND
Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner?
(8.5)
21.4
35.9
6.2
1.3
7.4
8.3
2.0
1.2
0.4
(0.9)
(0.8)
2016 2017 2018 2019
TrillionVND
Largecap Midcap Smallcap
FOL regulation
loosening
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM; year-end marcap: Largecap: > VND10tn, Midcap: VND100bn ~ 10tn, Smallcap: < VND1tn
 Large cap & mid cap stocks enjoyed foreign net buying while small caps were net sold by foreign
investors for a second consecutive year in 2019 with the net selling value of VND800bn in 2019
vs. VND900bn in 2018.
 In 2019, foreign investors net bought VND2trillion worth of mid cap stocks, equivalent to 32.3% of
their net buying value of blue chips. The ratio was lower at 23.1% in 2018.
16Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
17Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Only 21% or 7 out of 33 equity funds tracked by FiinPro outperformed VN-Index, but these 7 funds hold
a combined 1.84% of total AUMs of 33 funds. Data was updated as of Nov 29, 2019.
Figure 10: NAV growth of ten equity funds
79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market!
Sour: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data compiled from 33 equity funds as of 29/11/2019
 33 equity funds (bond-focused funds excluded) tracked by FiinPro had total AUM of US$3.1bn as of Nov
29, 2019.
 VEIL, the largest Vietnam-focused closed-end fund with US$1.5bn in AUM, had NAV growth of 8.32%.
VOF, the second largest one with nearly US$930mn in AUM, reported NAV decline of 1.71% while
TVAM Growth Fund had the strongest NAV decline of 13.3%.
16.46%
13.47%
12.48%
9.70% 9.27%
8.32%
4.36%
1.82%
0.00%
-1.71%
VN-Index: +8.86%
VN30-Index: +3.72%
Top 5 funds by NAV growth
Top 5 funds by NAVs
18Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Equity funds uploaded Banking, Real Estate, Basic Resources, Personal & Household Goods stocks
while cutting portfolios in Travel & Leisure and Utilities.
Figure 11: Top holdings of equity funds by sectors & stocks
Unit: trillion VND
79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data compiled from 26 equity funds (excluding VEIL & Vietnam Equity (UCITS) Fund of Dragon Capital) as of Nov 29, 2019
 Equity funds net bought VND1.55 trillion worth of local shares in 11M/2019, with TCB having the biggest
foreign net buying value of VND502.7bn, followed by PVS (VND319.7 bn), and HPG (VND417.7 bn).
 HPG was the top holding by equity funds with a combined value of VND3.3tn by the end of Nov 2019.
3.3
2.4
2.2
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.7
2.9
1.9
1.9
2.2
1.6
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.7
0.5
2019 2018
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1.3
2.4
4.4
4.6
0.3
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.6
1.2
2.1
3.7
3.6
Travel & Leisure
Insurance
Utilities
Oil & Gas
Financial Services
Construction & Materials
Food & Beverage
Industrial Goods &…
Real Estate
Banks
2018
2019
19Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
20Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Net buying value by prop trading totaled VND308.2bn (nearly US$13.1mn) in 2019, reversing from net-
selling position in the previous four consecutive years.
Figure 12: Net prop trading value in 2015-2019
Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE only
(922.4)
(379.8)
(1,366.8)
(1,280.2)
308.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BillionVND
Net selling of VND3.9tn in 4 consecutive years
Unit: billion VND
 The net buying value by prop trading was modest but this indicated their view about market outlook.
21Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Food & Beverages and Banking recorded net buying value of prop trading while shares of Financial
Services were net sold by them.
Figure 13: Net buying/selling value of prop trading by sectors
Unit: trillion VND
Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy!
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: Data covered HOSE only
 Food & Beverages shares have been steadily net bought by prop traders at securities companies since
2016, with the 2019 net buying value topping at VND1.74 trillion, +10.6 times against 2018.
 Prop traders net purchased VND407.3 billion worth of Banking shares in 2019 after maintaining net-
selling position in the four preceding years.
 Financial Services stocks were sold for the fifth consecutive year in 2019, with the net selling value of
nearly VND2.4 trillion.
(1.8)
0.2
0.2
(0.3)
0.2
(0.2)
(0.1)
0.2
(2.5)
(0.2)
(0.1)
(0.1)
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.7
Financial Services
Utilities
Industrial Goods & Services
Automobiles & Parts
Travel & Leisure
Construction & Materials
Real Estate
Oil & Gas
Banks
Food & Beverage
2019
2018
22Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
23Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Insiders also on Net Buy!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM
 SBT had internal shareholders bought at most. Internal shareholders net bought 80 million shares from
early Sept to mid-Oct 2019 during which SBT shares bounced back 13.3%.
 ROS and ACB shares were net sold by internal shareholders at most.
Trading by internal shareholders was mostly seen in Food & Beverages, Real Estate and Construction
& Materials.
Figure 13: Top 10 internal shareholders’ trading by sectors by volume
137.8
(38.3)
(26.8)
(20.1)
(13.8)
(9.3)
7.4
16.0
50.8
72.6
111.3
Total
Construction & Materials
Banks
Industrial Goods & Services
Travel & Leisure
Automobiles & Parts
Utilities
Financial Services
Basic Resources
Real Estate
Food & Beverage
24Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
25Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise!
Unit: million USD
ETFs increased their assets in Vietnam by US$149.2mn (nearly VND3.5tn) in 2019 (despite net outflows
in global markets)
Figure 15: Vietnam assets value in portfolios of ETFs
Source: FiinGroup
Notes: Data from 6 biggest ETFs having assets in Vietnam
 Taking advantage of not being subject to FOL regulations, two local ETFs (VFMVN30 and SSIAM
VNX50) increased their Vietnam portfolios by a combined US$98.9mn in 2019.
 Assets in Vietnam by three of the other four ETFs rose US$73mn. iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF is the
only ETF which cut assets in Vietnam, to US$58.7mn by end-2019 from US$81.4mn a year earlier.
283.0 280.2
436.5
502.9
24.0
7.8
282.97 280.24 271.85
58.69
23.68 7.8
Xtrackers FTSE
Vietnam Swap
UCITS ETF 1C
VFMVN30 VanEck Vectors
Vietnam ETF
iShares MSCI
Frontier 100 ETF
Premia MSCI
Vietnam ETF
SSIAM VNX50
Total NAV (mn US$) Vietnam Assets (mn US$)
26Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
ETFs continued to buy Real estate
ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise!
Source: FiinGroup
Notes: Data compiled from 6 ETF
 Real Estate stocks, led by VIC, VHM, VRE and NVL, were still favored by ETFs, having a combined
36.3% weight in their assets in Vietnam by value.
 Food & Beverages, Banking and Basic Resources followed with respective weights of 22%, 14.2% and
6.4%.
Figure 16: Top 10 Vietnam stocks held by ETFs
Unit: mn USD
136.7 138.0
126.0
74.2 75.5
68.5 70.6
64.3
57.4
23.0
113.7 116.3
81.1
57.4
72.0
39.6
60.1
11.0
48.9
0.0
VIC VNM VHM VRE MSN VCB HPG VJC NVL TCB
2019 2018
27Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
28Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Investors preferred bonds issued by public companies to new share issues
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Issuance by listed companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM
64.6%35.1%
90.9
69.9
29.7
60.4
50.7
74.7
86.6
128.9
187.6
209.0
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.5%
1.7%
1.9%
0
50
100
150
200
Bonds Issue IPO Shares Issue
+47.4%
+15.9%
+48.9%
+45.5%
+11.4%Unit: trillion VND
Investor switched
their preference to
c-bonds: Listed
companies raised
VND13tn or around
US$5bn via c-
bonds. This is
attributed to the
dwindling market
liquidity!
Figure 17: Capital mobilization on stock market in 2010-2019
 Value of additionally-issued shares grows modestly: The value of additional shares issued on the
stock market totaled at VND73.4 trillion or nearly US$3.2bn (+9.2% y/y).
 Value of IPOs is tiny: The stock market had just few small IPOs which mobilized over VND600 billion,
equivalent to 0.85% of the 2018 value and hitting the lowest level since 2013. IPOs of giant SOEs such
as Mobifone, VNPT, Satra have not yet taken place as planned while there was no remarkable IPOs by
private companies.
29Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table 1: Capital mobilization structure in 2019
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Capital mobilization value by companies listed on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM
Unit: trillion VND
Majority of capitals raised through the stock market came from share sales through
private offerings and to foreign strategic investors!
 The value of VND56.8trillion from private placements was mostly contributed by share sales to foreign
strategic investors, including VND20.3tn in BIDV (paid by Hana Bank for a 15% stake); VND17tn in VIC;
VND6tn in VCB; VND4tn in BVH and VND3tn in MPC.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
IPO 1.1 3.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 7.9 6.3 11.5 32.4 73.7 0.6
Bonds Issue 9.0 19.4 7.5 8.7 1.2 7.8 14.4 16.1 40.2 46.7 135.0
Banks - 8.6 - - - - - 7.6 8.3 18.8 99.9
Real Estate 2.0 1.6 1.3 6.3 0.1 3.2 4.4 3.7 19.0 16.3 14.7
Shares Issue 29.1 67.8 59.5 21.0 58.6 35.0 54.0 58.9 56.3 67.2 73.4
Private placement 15.6 25.4 46.0 12.0 40.6 22.5 32.5 40.6 30.0 47.2 56.8
ESOP 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 2.6
Issuance for creditors - - - - - - - 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.2
Share auctions 5.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 - 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.1 0.4
Rights issue 7.9 40.3 12.7 8.1 16.7 11.9 20.0 13.6 21.9 15.1 13.4
Margin loans 22.9 25.2 39.8 47.5 55.2
Total 39.3 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0
30Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Figure18: Value of c-bonds by sectors
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: C-bonds issued by companies listed on HOSE, HNX & UPCoM,
excluding banks
Listed companies switched to issue c-bonds, instead of additional shares, to finance
growth!
 The value of corporate bonds issued by listed
companies hit the highest ever level at VND135 trillion
in 2019, +209% y/y as a result of Circular No. 22 which
increases the high risk ratio in bank loans for real
estate projects to 200% from the earlier 150% and
lowers the ratio of short-term capital for medium- and
long-term loans.
 In 2019, the c-bond issue value was equivalent to
13.87% of total loans disbursed by local banks, higher
than the ratio of 6.23% in 2018 and 4% in 2017.
 If banks were excluded, 42% of bond issuers were real
estate companies in 2019, with bond coupon rates
popular at 10%-13% per year, or 450-650bps higher
than 2018 rates and 100-200bps higher than lending
interest rates. This is likely a burden for real estate
companies given the current unfavorable market
conditions.
Real Estate,
41.9%
Construction
& Materials,
19.6%
Financial
Services,
15.1%
Travel &
Leisure, 3.7%
Basic
Resources,
2.4% Other, 17.3%
31Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Despite the rising value of c-bonds, financial leverage ratio at listed companies declined
in recent two years due to their less borrowing from banks while the quality of their
profits and cash flows is deteriorating (see next slides)!
Investor’s preference switched to Bonds
Figure 19: Financial leverage ratio (Debts/Equity) of listed companies
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: Data is from 1019 listed firms on HOSE, HXN, UPCOM, excluding banks, insurances and data is as of end-Q3/2019
0.65
0.58
0.70
0.63
0.65
0.71 0.72
0.67
0.60
0.54
0.63
0.66
0.61
0.56
0.57
0.73
0.79
0.73 0.73
0.78
0.81
0.79
0.77
0.74
0.73
0.74
0.71
0.69
0.68
0.65
Real Estate Total
Forming market views is challenging to any
research and investment institutions
We provide some data-evidenced analysis in
next pages with a hope to assist your
investment view formation process!
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
34Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
 This is the most positive factor for the market potential in 2020. However, the key points lies on the
quality of corporate’s profit growth in the coming quarters to lure cash flow return.
Figure 20: P/E & VN-Index in the last 3 years
Market valuation is currently the same level as when VN-Index hovered around 700
in mid-2017 before a strong rebound!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform
VN-Index, 741.91
VN-Index, 960.99
P/E , 15.9
P/E , 15.7
15
17
19
21
23
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
P/E
VN-Index
VN-Index P/E
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
35Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
 In the last 3 years, P/B reached the peak of 3.4x in mid-April/2018 and then declined to 2.3x by end-
2019, this is also P/B level when VN-Index was at 700 in 2017.
Figure 21: P/B & VN-Index in the last 3 years
PB tells the same story
Source: FiinPro Platform
Notes: P/B of companies listed on HOSE
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
VN-Index P/B
36Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Vietnam stock market is relatively attractive in comparison with other regional peers,
especially when the country’s economic growth is considered!
Figure 22: P/E & P/B of Vietnam stock market vs. regional peers
Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
Nguồn: FiinPro Platform, Bloomberg & MSCI
 P/E of Vietnam’s stock market stood at 15.7x in 2019, higher than the average P/E of EMs (12.8x), but it
was still below its average level in the three preceding years.
 Vietnam stocks were more expensive than Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but cheaper than other markets in
ASEAN: Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia.
15.7
11.5
13.7
18.9
17.3
19.9
18.3
12.8
Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Emerging
Market
P/E
2.3
1.0
1.6 1.7
2.8
2.1
1.6
Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia
P/B
37Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
38Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Quarterly net revenue and EBITDA growth (YoY) has seen a gradual decline in the last 6
quarters!
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
Figure 25: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
13.7%
24.3%
33.5% 32.7%
22.4% 22.6%
19.3%
11.4% 11.4%
14.9%
6.9%
18.4%
9.0%
17.9%
18.1%
16.5%
15.9%
6.5% -1.5%
-3.7%
10.8%
6.4%
Net Sales Growth (VG inclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG inclusive)
39Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Although net profit grew by 15.4%, EBIT only rose by 6.2% in Q3/2019 as many companies booked
irregular income.
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
Figure 26: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
28.2%
28.7%
26.1%
27.4%
32.4%
19.2%
8.3%
-0.2% 0.6%
13.2%
15.4%
22.3%
4.2%
22.7% 15.1% 21.5%
22.1%
6.5%
-1.4%
-7.9%
15.2%
6.2%
Net Earnings Growth (VG inclusive) EBIT Growth (VG inclusive)
Non-recurring incomes
by PHR, MSN, HVN
Impacted by Real State &
Basic Resource sectors’
decline
Non-recurring incomes
by GMD, Masan groups
Impacted by Steel
sector’s decline
40Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
 Excluding VinGroup, both revenue growth and EBITDA growth showed clearer fall and EBITDA even
saw negative growth in Q2 and Q3/2019.
The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies!
Figure 27: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base
- VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
11.4%
22.0%
31.3%
33.0%
18.9% 20.6%
18.7%
10.2%
14.2%
12.0%
5.2%
16.8%
4.5%
14.5%
17.3%
14.5%
13.2%
8.3%
0.2% 1.4%
-1.4%
-3.9%
Net Sales Growth (VG exclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG exclusive)
41Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
 Similarly, when the VinGroup companies are removed, despite net profit growth, EBIT growth fell by
6.8%. It was the sixth consecutive quarter that EBIT growth slowed down or declined.
Figure 28: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies)
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM.
- EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance.
- Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for 2 periods.
- VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF
The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies!
But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating!
30.7% 30.9%
23.0%
29.0%
26.2%
20.2%
7.9%
-4.5%
1.6%
4.5%
14.3%
22.4%
-3.4%
18.0%
13.2%
16.9%
20.1%
9.3%
2.2%
0.2% -0.5%
-6.8%
Net Earnings Growth (VG exclusive) EBIT Growth (VG exclusive)
42Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
43Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Our calculation shows that VN30 group (accounting for 80% of VN-Index’s market cap) is forecasted to
have an EPS growth of only about 5.4%!
2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group
Source: FiinPro Platform
Figure 27: Forecast of EPS growth (adjusted) of VN30 group
 The calculation was based on analysis reports of the securities companies and business plans
announced by companies through 2019 AGMs with adjustment in number of outstanding shares to
eliminate the impact of issuances to increase capital.
 Analysts forecast that the VN30's EPS will increase by 5.4%, growing significantly slower than
previous years, while according to companies’ plans, this figure is even -2.1%.
2,539.6
2,927.5
3,208.7
3,381.5
3,169.2
15.3%
9.6%
5.4%
-1.2%
-11%
-6%
-1%
4%
9%
14%
19%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Analysts
consensus
Management
est.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2019
EPS EPS growth
44Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group
Source: FiinPro Platform
Note: * For banks, this is total operating income.
Data from consensus of securities companies, VCB, CTG, BID, MBB and HDB are the 2019 interim earnings results
Table 2: Estimated earnings & EPS growth of VN30 group in 2019
No Ticker Price 2019 Price Mkt Cap 2019 Est. 2019 Est. 9M2019 9M2019 2019 Est. TTM Q3/2019 Div Yid
2019
EPS 2019
Grth31/12/19 Change 31/12/19 Revenue (*) EAT EAT % Mgt. Plan EAT Grth P/E P/B ROE
VND'000 (%) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) % % (x) (x) (%) (%) (%)
1 VIC 115.00 20.7% 387,386.2 140,000.0 6,500.0 4,112.4 63.3% 5.0% 84.47 5.04 4.0% 67.7%
2 VCB 90.20 70.1% 334,540.7 42,701.0 18,573.8 14,127.3 88.3% 27.0% 17.12 4.11 26.3% 0.9% 27.2%
3 VHM 84.80 16.9% 278,950.8 53,191.3 21,105.0 17,347.7 84.2% 42.8% 15.79 5.19 31.9% -2.1%
4 VNM 116.50 0.7% 202,870.5 56,168.4 10,764.5 8,377.9 79.9% 5.5% 19.00 7.44 38.2% 4.3% -6.6%
5 BID 46.15 38.8% 185,616.1 46,567.0 8,643.2 5,645.1 68.5% 14.6% 22.54 2.42 12.6% 1.5% 17.5%
6 GAS 93.70 12.9% 179,337.1 75,652.3 12,918.5 9,060.5 118.5% 10.3% 14.75 3.94 26.0% 3.2% 12.8%
7 SAB 228.00 -14.3% 146,212.1 39,362.0 5,136.5 4,279.3 90.1% 16.7% 29.79 8.18 27.7% 23.0%
8 TCB 23.55 -8.9% 82,428.3 19,860.0 11,736.0 7,107.4 75.6% 38.5% 8.86 1.40 16.8% -53.8%
9 CTG 20.90 8.3% 77,819.2 35,076.0 9,287.8 6,824.5 89.8% 71.5% 12.72 1.05 8.6% 71.6%
10 VRE 34.00 25.5% 77,258.8 9,495.0 2,745.0 1,968.3 72.9% 13.7% 29.06 2.76 9.4% -3.3%
11 VJC 146.20 22.9% 76,585.2 60,470.5 5,660.0 3,680.5 74.0% 6.1% 15.13 5.16 34.9% 7.3%
12 MSN 56.50 -27.1% 66,045.5 36,834.0 5,525.0 4,616.4 83.9% -1.7% 12.55 1.96 14.6% 11.8%
13 HPG 23.50 -1.3% 64,885.2 63,079.3 7,352.7 5,654.9 84.4% -14.5% 8.82 1.41 17.0% 8.5% -34.0%
14 NVL 59.50 -7.3% 57,687.7 18,539.0 3,275.0 1,074.0 32.5% 0.2% 18.74 2.78 13.8% -12.1%
15 BVH 68.60 -21.9% 50,923.3 34,403.5 1,283.6 1,036.5 96.0% 10.3% 39.38 2.59 7.7% 1.5% 14.0%
16 MWG 114.00 33.3% 50,466.7 104,173.5 3,863.0 2,976.2 83.3% 34.1% 13.68 4.47 36.0% 28.5%
17 VPB 20.00 0.3% 48,755.0 35,460.7 8,173.2 5,753.8 75.7% 11.1% 5.87 1.20 21.9% -1.4%
18 MBB 20.80 18.6% 48,374.1 23,947.0 8,077.3 6,142.1 80.3% 30.5% 6.52 1.33 20.6% 14.7%
19 FPT 58.30 58.1% 39,543.5 28,080.7 3,359.0 2,939.8 82.4% 3.9% 12.47 2.91 20.3% 3.4% 16.0%
20 HDB 27.55 -9.1% 27,026.5 11,947.0 4,021.3 2,764.0 68.1% 25.6% 8.28 1.49 17.9% 41.5%
21 EIB 17.80 26.7% 21,883.9 4,469.0 772.0 882.4 102.4% 16.9% 34.42 1.39 4.1% 16.3%
22 PNJ 86.00 24.6% 19,366.2 16,702.8 1,158.0 805.9 54.5% 20.6% 17.82 4.64 26.8% 2.1% -16.3%
23 STB 10.05 -15.9% 18,126.7 14,236.0 2,470.7 1,923.3 92.2% 38.0% 6.52 0.69 10.9% 32.0%
24 REE 36.30 24.1% 11,254.8 5,577.0 1,545.0 1,242.2 85.3% -18.0% 6.47 1.13 17.2% 4.4% -13.4%
25 SBT 18.50 -3.5% 11,254.5 11,170.0 399.0 292.8 53.8% 38.5% 35.86 1.59 4.4% 26.3%
26 ROS 17.30 -55.3% 9,819.4 4,940.2 169.5 76.4 23.9% -8.4% 57.92 1.65 2.9% -24.2%
27 SSI 18.05 -29.2% 9,170.4 2,964.0 925.0 687.1 78.1% -29.0% 10.54 0.95 9.2% -30.5%
28 GMD 23.30 -5.6% 6,918.4 2,765.3 600.0 547.1 98.4% -68.4% 11.43 1.11 9.0% -68.1%
29 DPM 12.95 -38.8% 5,067.8 7,678.6 300.3 151.8 89.3% -57.9% 17.32 0.65 3.6% 7.7% -57.1%
30 CTD 51.30 -66.9% 3,913.8 22,922.5 689.0 477.6 36.7% -54.4% 4.94 0.48 9.8% 5.8% -54.8%
Total VN30 1,028,433.3 167,028.7 122,575.3 80.9% 16.2% 17.15 2.98 20.5% 5.4%
Average 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7%
Trim Mean 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7%
Median 26,013.8 3,942.1 2,958.0 81.4% 10.7% 14.94 1.81 15.7% 9.6%
45Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Table of Contents
Content Page
Preface 3
1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31
1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8
1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11
1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15
1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18
1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21
1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23
1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26
1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31
2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47
2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36
2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41
2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 – 44
2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50
About FiinGroup 51 - 59
The future of the VN-Index, in our own
opinion, is a direct function of cash flows
from two main investor groups: foreign
investors (mainly institutions) and domestic
investors (mainly individuals)
Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
1 Foreign
fund
flows
• The main drivers for the uptrend momentum and
liquidity of VN-Index in previous years were the
foreign capital inflow and behavior of domestic
investors. Because the market is a "zero-sum
game", liquidity rises, or the market has an
opportunity to increase when the demand from
foreign investors is higher than the available
supply by domestic investors.
• In 2019, new cash flows into the stock market
were very limited. This was a key factor leading to
liquidity slump and VN-Index growth of only 7.7%
with low volatility.
• Data shows that, basically, the Index tends to rise
whenever foreigners net buy and vice versa,
especially when we look at monthly correlation!
• In 2019, they net bought only VND7.3 trillion
(about US$310 million) on all 3 exchanges.
Excluding VIC, net buying fell to only VND2.3
trillion. This was a very small number compared to
VND28.4 trillion in net buying in 2017 and
VND43.3 trillion in 2018.
• Given US$2.7 billion FII flowing in Vietnam in
2019, we can see that foreign capital mainly
flowed into government bonds, corporate bonds,
strategic capital investment or M&A. Certainly,
capital flowed into unlisted businesses rather than
buying shares on exchanges.
• Besides, despite the downtrend of the ETF model
in the international market, in Vietnam, another
source of foreign capital is from ETFs. In 2019, the
size of the 6 funds we track increased by about
US$149 million.
• The macroeconomic context and the exchange
rate are considered very stable by independent
domestic and foreign research organizations.
Working with many big investors interested in
Vietnam's stock market, we believe that FII will
continue to increase this year and the interest will
shift gradually from the bond channel to the stock
market.
• Moreover, if we follow margin by Korean
securities companies with their capital raising
plan, we will see new money for market this year.
• ETF will likely continue to thrive in 2020,
especially the upgrading story of Vietnam stock
market can be realized in the coming year and
thus attracting higher proportion of capital
allocation by emerging market-focused funds
when Vietnam reaches this status.
• Although it may not be large, it is likely that a part
of the cash flow into Vietnamese stocks in 20202
ahead of Emerging market upgrade.
• However, the bottom line, according to many
large investment funds who are our customers, is
that the market must have more quality goods,
especially from equitization of attractive SOEs
and IPOs of large private enterprises. The reason
is that the level of foreign ownership in the stock
market now is very high, especially on HOSE and
therefore the market needs new and quality
goods.
POSITIVE
Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
2 Domestic
fund flow
• Domestic cash flow includes direct cash flow
and indirect cash flow!
• The direct cash flow is (i) the ability to transfer
money from cash or savings to securities
channels and (ii) the possibility of moving
from alternative investment channels such as
real estate and more recently corporate bonds
as we have pointed out.
• The indirect cash flow is credit growth or M2.
Currently, credit is still tight with the growth
limit of about 14%, mainly due to consumer
and retail loan growth. According to our
calculation, excluding credit growth for
individuals (most home loans), credit growth
for the business sector would grow by only 7-
8% in the past 2 years.
• For business sector, this growth is very low in
our opinion. Certainly, many businesses have
chosen bond channels and if including the
amount of capital mobilized through bond
channels, the total debt growth of businesses
is about 10%.
• Cash flow from savings: The shift from term
deposits (with interest rate of 7% for 1-year
term), certificates of deposit (about 9%) and
corporate bonds (equal to term deposit rate
+4%, meaning about 11%) is a challenge for the
securities channel. However, given the current
performance of banks and money market
movements (interbank interest rates and
government bonds), we expect interest rates to
fall by 50 to 100 basis points, in line with
operating direction of the Government and the
State Bank of Vietnam.
• Cash flow from certificates of deposits:
Certificates of deposits of consumer finance
companies with quite attractive interest rates at
9-11% have increased sharply over the past
years to meet their very high average growth.
However, our data indicate that this capital
mobilization channel has cooled down after a
fairly hot growing period.
• Cash flow from bonds: Bonds of public
companies alone attracted more than VND135
trillion in 2019. With regulations tending to
tighten this investment channel to ensure
sustainable development as well as some
businesses having liquidity problems with
condotel mobilization products, we believe that
investors are more aware of the risks of
corporate bonds and similar forms of capital
mobilization like condotel.
DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST
Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
3 Quality
stock
supply
• To attract foreign money (offshore and
onshore), the key point is that the market
must have a new quality supply. Year 2017
and 2018 were typical with series of newly
listed stocks such as ACV, TCB, HDB, VHM
and Viettel Post. Listing of these stocks
created a good supply for not only domestic
and foreign investors but also catalyst to
facilitate trading of related industries.
• As the data indicates, in 2019, the number
of large IPOs that attracted the attention of
investors was not there!
• Looking back at 2019, there were no big and
attractive newly listed stocks. Certainly, this is a
"chicken and egg" story. In 2020, it is expected some
companies will be forced to go listing such as banking
stocks. According to the Prime Minister's decision, all
banks will have to list their shares on stock market by
the end of 2020.
• According to our data, there are currently 12
commercial banks with total legal capital of about
VND100 trillion, or US$4.2 billion. Assuming these
banks are listed at 1.4x P/B (the average of 18 listed
banks), the total capitalization will increase by US$5.9
billion. However, we find it difficult for Agribank with
charter capital of VND29 trillion to list in 2020 and not
100% of the shares will be free floated.
• Regarding supply of stocks from equitization or
divestment of state-owned enterprises, we think that
2020 will be pretty quiet as big names expected by
domestic and foreign investors like Mobifone, Satra, etc.
will unlikely be listed in this pivotal year.
NOT
POSITIVE
50Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
Drivers of stock market in 2020!
Driver Data Analysis Rating
4 Corporate
Earnings
Prospect
and Quality
• Corporate earnings i.e. revenues and
profits have grown steadily in terms of
accounting data.
• However, quarterly EBITDA, EBIT and
CFO data shows that the quality of
corporate profit has been deteriorating
which can be seen not only in the leading
businesses but also the rest of the market.
• The data also indicates that the EPS
growth in 2019 is estimated at as low as
5.4%, the lowest in 5 years. Basically, in
Vietnam if a company or a sector’s growth
is below GDP expansion it means no
growth!
• Analysts and media all believe that Vietnam has a
very good growth potential thanks to the rise of local
consumption as well as incomes by middle class.
Basically, we are in line with them.
• However, when assessing the quality of growth and
especially the quality of profit of large businesses as
well as non-financial sector, our data gives the
opposite opinion, at least in the last 4-6 quarters as
shown in this report.
• Surprisingly, the "champions" and "proxies"
representing Vietnam's "consumption growth" in
various popular categories such as Vinamilk (VNM),
Mobile World (MWG), Masan (MSN) to emerging
stars such as Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS) also had
Q3/2019 revenues declining or slowing down
compared to the same period in 2018 and declining
from Q2/2019 . For MWG, the data also indicates
that Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) continuously
declined from 38% to minus 10% in Q3/2019.
NEED
FURTHER
TRACKING
AND
EVALUATION
You can access this data
on our FiinPro Platform
and many other data about
nearly 3,000 public
companies with many
other great features!
Please visit www.fiinpro.vn
for further information and
trial
A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP
And if you are subscribing
our FiinTrade Platform, we
have standardised the
data for your great
investing and trading
experience.
FiinTrade is considered as
“Eikon for average
investor” in Vietnam. You
can subscribe online to
use it at www.fiintrade.vn
A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP
53Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research
The
Powerf
ul
Product
Suite of
FiinGro
up
FiinGroup (previously StoxPlus) is a Vietnam’s leading provider of financial data,
business information, industry research and other data-driven analytics services
About FiinGroup JSC
FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
The group of businesses in information and data analytics
Financial Information
The Largest and Most Innovative
Financial Information Provider
Business Information
The Largest Most Innovative
Business Information Provider
Market Research
The Most Trusted Independent
Research House
Comprehensive and In-depth Financial
Database & Analytics for analysts and
researchers
Powerful Trading Information &
Analytics Platform for Brokers, Traders
and Active Investors
API Datafeed
Securities Data Solutions to Client’s
designated system via XML or API
Business Report
Report service for risk management,
sales leads, partner screening, due
diligence and so on
Corporate information platform which
maps out relationships between
companies and persons
Industry Report
Insightful reports for all key sectors of
Vietnam under paid publications ready
to use
Market Research
Customised research at client’s request
including data analysis and on-the-
ground surveys
Market Entry Advisory
Experienced and seasoned
professionals to support clients
expanding market in Vietnam
Business Information and Risk Platform
for Vietnam
Credit Rating Agency*
The Most Trusted CRA for both
Issuers and Investors
* CRA business is yet to introduced by mid 2020
‹#›
A comprehensive Financial
Database Platform for Vietnam
54
A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC
Who should use our FiinPro?
Securities
Firms
Asset
Management
Firms
Research
Institutions
Insurance
Companies
Investment
Companies
Commercial
Banks
Consulting
Firms
Main Platform Features
Excellent Customer
Support
 Dedicated customer
support for any
additional data request
beyond standard
services
Insightful Company
Analysis
 Standard and in-depth
trading data
 One-click for an
insightful company
report; and much more
In-depth Market Analysis
 Realtime data for
individual stocks,
sectorial indices and
market indices
 Standard market data
from Exchanges, etc.
Comprehensive Industry
& Macro Data
 Economic data with
1000+ macro indicators
 Standard industry
datasets for key sectors
of Vietnam
Useful Research Tools
 Stock Screening
 Strategy Screening
 Cross Section Analysis
 Contribution Analysis
 Portfolio Management
 Technical Analysis
Interactive Data Explorer
 Personalised data
templates
 Selected stock groups
or across industries
 Market data and
fundamental data
Financial News
 All corporate
announcements
 Industry news
 Market news
 My Daily Reports
Vietnam Specific Data
 IPO Statistics
 SOE Divestments
 Share and Bond Issue
Plan
 Equity Market incl. Stocks
and Derivatives
 Fund Market incl. Open
Funds and ETFs
 Fixed Income incl. G-
bond and C-Bond
 Corporate Data
 Industry Data
 Macroeconomic Data
Powerful Analytics Tools for:
 Market/Trading Data
 Reference Data
 Corporate Actions
 Financial Data
 Earnings Consensus
 Market news and Analysis
 And much more…
Data and Content Coverage:
‹#›
A trading information and analytics
platform for brokers, traders and
Active Investors in Vietnam Stock
Market
55
A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC
Who should use our FiinTrade?
Stock AdvisorsActive InvestorsBrokers Traders Trade
Executors
Portfolio Managers
Key Platform Features
Premium News
• Announcements
• Realtime AutoNews
• Stock Analysis
• Market News
Prices
• Time & Sales
• Prices Depth
• Quote Movement
• Price Data
Market
• Watchlist
• Market In-depth
• Market Calendar
• Heatmap
• Money Flow
Technical Analysis
• Technical Charting
• Technical Signal
• Technical Stock Scoring
Stock Analysis
• Company Snapshot
• Ownership
• Financial Checkup
• Consensus Analysis
• Financial Data
Trading Tools
• Trading Alerts
• Stock Screener
• Stock Ranking
• Trading Strategies
• API Data
Trading Strategies
• Value Stock Strategy
• Growth Stock Strategy
• Momentum Strategy
• CANSLIM Strategy
• Technical Strategy
Stock Ranking
• Stock Ranking
• Stock Scoring
 Comprehensive
Information
 Powerful functions
 Real-time premium
newsfeeds
 Premium feeds from
FiinGroup confidential
research team
 FiinGroup Scoring &
Ranking Stock
 In depth Analytics
Why subscribing
our FiinTrade?
‹#›
 Radial Map: Instant
visual insights about
people and company
connections
 Interconnection Map:
Identify cross-
connections, clusters and
syndicates
 Beneficial Ownership
Map: A convenient and
safe way to conduct
ownership checks
 Investee Companies
Search: Fastest way to
discover a person’s or
company’s ownership
interests
 Entity Profile Report: A
quick overview of your
business partners at the
time of on-boarding
Product Key Features
Corporate information platform which maps out
relationships between companies and persons in the
corporate ecosystem
A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC
Who should use our FiinConnex?
Investment FundsBanks Consulting Firms Trading HousesLaw Firms
Risk management
• Adverse info checks
• Conflicts of interests
The common use of FiinConnex
Due diligence
• Client on-boarding
checks
• Background checks
• Beneficial ownership
checks
• Vendor screening
Research & investigation
• Target profiling
Explore opportunities
• Potential customers
• Warm lead
generation
• Comparisons
Warm Leads
Increase new customer
penetration through
warm leads generated
from analysis of existing
client base
Convenience
Gain actionable insights
on people and
companies from curated
sources using our user-
friendly platform
Enhanced Risk
Management
Identify indirect
connections among
persons and companies
Instant & Unique Insights
Discover new and unique
insights into the complex
connections among
companies in Vietnam.
Benefits from subscribing our FiinConnex
56
‹#›
We offer both technology-based reports and analyst-based
reports from our aggregated source of 1 mil+ registered
enterprises in Vietnam. Types of Reports:
• Profile Report
• Company Factsheet
• Credit Report
• Standard Research Report
• Comprehensive Research Report
57
Private Company
Research Report
Business Profile
• Key business activities
• Legal Rep.
• Address and Contact
• Development milestones
Ownership Analysis
• Founding shareholders
• Management ownership
• Institutional shareholders
• Foreign shareholders
Operational Data
• Branches and
Subsidiaries
• Headcounts
• Production sites
• Capacity
• Factories
Insightful Analysis
• Market Share
• Management
Background
• Financial DD
News Analysis
• Litigations
• Negative News
• Key development
• Tax filing status
Financial Analysis
• Balance Sheet
• Income Statement
• Cash Flows Statement
• Financial Ratios
Company Scoring
• Industry Benchmarking
• Z-Score
• M-Score
• Short-term Credit Limit
• Credit Rating
Management Background
• Management
Background
• Board of Directors
• Board of Management
Customised Research
Leveraging on our comprehensive corporate and
industry database, we support our client’s decision-
making process with tailor-made service.
The scope is more in-depth research tailored to
clients’ specific segments of interest with insight
input by industry experts.
Presentation
Company visits
Business matching
 Banks
 Consumer Finance
 Payment Gateway
 Finance Leasing
 Insurance
 Food & Beverages
 Brewers
 Soft Drinks
 Food Processing
 Seafoods
 Consumer Retailer
 ICT Retailer
 Fashion Retailer
 Convenience Store
 Health & Beauty Store
 Utilities
 Water Supply and
Distribution
15
Industry Report
These are on-the-shelf industry reports providing clients with
comprehensive information and in-depth analysis reviewed
by industry experts including competitive landscape, key
players, and key development trends to help assess the
market's attractiveness and investment opportunities.
A selection of sectors we cover
 Financial Services  Construction & Materials
 Cement
 Additives and Concrete
 Admixtures
 Home Builders
 Industrial Goods
 Containers & Packaging
 Flexible Packaging
 Transportation
 Logistics
 Cool Chain Storage
 Healthcare
 Hospital and Clinics
 Health Care Equipment
 Pharmaceuticals
 Internet Technologies
 Automobiles & Parts
‹#›
Ho Chi Minh City Branch
3rd Floor, Profomilk Plaza Building,
51-53 Vo Van Tan Street,
Ward 6, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City,
Vietnam
Tel: +84 28 3933 3586/ 85
Email: info@fiingroup.vn
Head Office
10th Floor, Peakview Tower,
36 Hoang Cau Street,
O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da District,
Hanoi, Vietnam
Tel: +84 24 3562 6962
Email: info@fiingroup.vn

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais de FiinGroup JSC

FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022
FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022
FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022FiinGroup JSC
 
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021FiinGroup JSC
 
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 ReviewFiinGroup JSC
 
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021FiinGroup JSC
 
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyond
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyondVietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyond
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyondFiinGroup JSC
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 Review
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 ReviewFiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 Review
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 ReviewFiinGroup JSC
 
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mớiFiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mớiFiinGroup JSC
 
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối cảnh Covid-19
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối  cảnh Covid-19FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối  cảnh Covid-19
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối cảnh Covid-19FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng lợi nhuận...
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng  lợi nhuận...FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng  lợi nhuận...
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng lợi nhuận...FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...FiinGroup JSC
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021FiinGroup JSC
 
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEW
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEWVIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEW
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEWFiinGroup JSC
 
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewINFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewFiinGroup JSC
 
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewConsumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewFiinGroup JSC
 
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearch
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearchVietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearch
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearchFiinGroup JSC
 
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearch
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearchVietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearch
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearchFiinGroup JSC
 

Mais de FiinGroup JSC (20)

FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022
FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022
FiinGroup Invest Summit: Investment Outlook 2022
 
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021
[Sample report] - Vietnam Plastic Packaging Market 2021
 
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review
[Sample Report] - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-Half 2021 Review
 
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021
[Sample Report] - Vietnam Cement Market 2021
 
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyond
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyondVietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyond
Vietnam Foreign Investment Outlook for 2022 and beyond
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Consumer Finance Report 2021
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Banking Report 2021
 
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 Review
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 ReviewFiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 Review
FiinResearch - Consumer Finance in Vietnam First-half 2021 Review
 
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020
INFOGRAPHIC: Vietnam Cement Market Report 2020
 
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mớiFiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới
FiinPro Digest #7: Lợi nhuận doanh nghiệp khẳng định chu kỳ tăng trưởng mới
 
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...
FiinPro Digest #6: Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trên đà Hồi phục ngoại trừ ngành Dầ...
 
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối cảnh Covid-19
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối  cảnh Covid-19FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối  cảnh Covid-19
FiinPro Digest #5: Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp trong Bối cảnh Covid-19
 
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng lợi nhuận...
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng  lợi nhuận...FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng  lợi nhuận...
FiinPro Digest #4: Doanh nghiệp sau giai đoạn Covid-19: Triển vọng lợi nhuận...
 
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...
FiinPro Digest #2: Đánh giá Chất lượng Lợi nhuận Doanh nghiệp năm 2019 và Tri...
 
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021
FiinResearch - Vietnam Cement Market Report 2021
 
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEW
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEWVIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEW
VIETNAM PLASTIC PACKAGING MARKET 2021_PREVIEW
 
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewINFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
INFOGRAPHIC: Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
 
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 ReviewConsumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
Consumer Finance in Vietnam - First-Half 2020 Review
 
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearch
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearchVietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearch
Vietnam M&A Research Report 2019 - FiinResearch
 
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearch
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearchVietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearch
Vietnam Banking Report 2020 - FiinResearch
 

Último

Beautiful Sapna Vip Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsapps
Beautiful Sapna Vip  Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /WhatsappsBeautiful Sapna Vip  Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsapps
Beautiful Sapna Vip Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsappssapnasaifi408
 
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptx
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptxIntroduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptx
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptxfirstjob4
 
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一ffjhghh
 
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al Barsha
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al BarshaAl Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al Barsha
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al BarshaAroojKhan71
 
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxLog Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxJohnnyPlasten
 
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Callshivangimorya083
 
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data Storytelling
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data StorytellingBrighton SEO | April 2024 | Data Storytelling
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data StorytellingNeil Barnes
 
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxEMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxthyngster
 
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxCarero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxolyaivanovalion
 
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptx
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptxCustomer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptx
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptxEmmanuel Dauda
 
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Serviceranjana rawat
 
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationshipsccctableauusergroup
 
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysis
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's AnalysisApril 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysis
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysismanisha194592
 
Halmar dropshipping via API with DroFx
Halmar  dropshipping  via API with DroFxHalmar  dropshipping  via API with DroFx
Halmar dropshipping via API with DroFxolyaivanovalion
 
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptx
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptxCebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptx
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptxolyaivanovalion
 
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxSmarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxolyaivanovalion
 
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxMature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxolyaivanovalion
 
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxBigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxolyaivanovalion
 
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip CallDelhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Callshivangimorya083
 
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxB2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxStephen266013
 

Último (20)

Beautiful Sapna Vip Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsapps
Beautiful Sapna Vip  Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /WhatsappsBeautiful Sapna Vip  Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsapps
Beautiful Sapna Vip Call Girls Hauz Khas 9711199012 Call /Whatsapps
 
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptx
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptxIntroduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptx
Introduction-to-Machine-Learning (1).pptx
 
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书)																			成绩单原版一比一
定制英国白金汉大学毕业证(UCB毕业证书) 成绩单原版一比一
 
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al Barsha
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al BarshaAl Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al Barsha
Al Barsha Escorts $#$ O565212860 $#$ Escort Service In Al Barsha
 
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptxLog Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
Log Analysis using OSSEC sasoasasasas.pptx
 
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call
꧁❤ Greater Noida Call Girls Delhi ❤꧂ 9711199171 ☎️ Hard And Sexy Vip Call
 
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data Storytelling
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data StorytellingBrighton SEO | April 2024 | Data Storytelling
Brighton SEO | April 2024 | Data Storytelling
 
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptxEMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM  TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
EMERCE - 2024 - AMSTERDAM - CROSS-PLATFORM TRACKING WITH GOOGLE ANALYTICS.pptx
 
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxCarero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Carero dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
 
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptx
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptxCustomer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptx
Customer Service Analytics - Make Sense of All Your Data.pptx
 
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
(PARI) Call Girls Wanowrie ( 7001035870 ) HI-Fi Pune Escorts Service
 
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
04242024_CCC TUG_Joins and Relationships
 
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysis
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's AnalysisApril 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysis
April 2024 - Crypto Market Report's Analysis
 
Halmar dropshipping via API with DroFx
Halmar  dropshipping  via API with DroFxHalmar  dropshipping  via API with DroFx
Halmar dropshipping via API with DroFx
 
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptx
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptxCebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptx
CebaBaby dropshipping via API with DroFX.pptx
 
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxSmarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Smarteg dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
 
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxMature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
Mature dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
 
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptxBigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
BigBuy dropshipping via API with DroFx.pptx
 
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip CallDelhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
Delhi Call Girls Punjabi Bagh 9711199171 ☎✔👌✔ Whatsapp Hard And Sexy Vip Call
 
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docxB2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
B2 Creative Industry Response Evaluation.docx
 

FiinPro Data Digest #1: Vietnam Stock Market from Data Analytics Perspective

  • 1. 1Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Vietnam Stock Market: 2019 Insights and 2020 Outlook from Data Analytics Perspective The Powerful Product Suite of FiinGroup FiinPro Data Digest I Issue #1 I January 10, 2020 Prepared by: Data Analytics Team Only for the subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform @ 2019 FiinGroup Joint Stock Company All rights reserved. All information contained in this publication is copyrighted in the name of FiinGroup, and as such no part of this publication may be reproduced, repackaged, redistributed, resold in whole or in any part, or used in any form or by any means graphic, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or by information storage or retrieval, or by any other means, without the express written consent of the publisher.
  • 2. 2Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Preface Dear valued customers: The year 2019 has just passed with unattractive stock market performance as VN-Index posted 7.7% growth. Looking back to a longer horizontal, VN-Index only increased by 76% in the past 5 years and by 94% in the past decade, equaling to 12% and 6.4% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) respectively. This performance was quite low, and to some extent, was disappointing by the investment community in the context of strong macroeconomic fundamentals recently in Vietnam. So, what is the prospect for stock market in 2020? This is very challenging question to any research house and investment institution. However, from our daily data mining works in supporting our data subscribers, we think it is good for the market if we can provide data-driven analysis and views with a hope to better serve our institutional investor clients and also our growing retail client base who are brokers, traders and investors subscribing our FiinTrade Platform. Our Data Analytics team has analyzed and presented data in the simplest way to help customers understand the market performance in 2019 and trying to assessing its implications for 2020 where it is possible. The market data mostly covers HOSE, HNX, UPCOM, except for some noted tables that are made up of data from HOSE only. For financial data, we covered also public but unlisted companies. In this report, we use Level 2 under Industry Classification Benchmark (ICB) for analyzing the sector performance. This is our first issue of "FiinPro Data Digest“ under a series of reports that we plan to carry out in coming time to serve FiinGroup customers and subscribers of FiinPro Platform and FiinTrade Platform. We will endeavor to produce the next reports to help customers have more in depths of some aspects in the market from data analytics perspective. With the mission "Enlighten the Market" and data strength, we constantly strive to bring valuable platforms and tools as well as information and analysis to our customers. This report has been prepared by our Data Analytics Team under the FiinGroup's Financial Information division. We hope this publication will provide you with useful information. Would you like to have more insights and data supporting arguments in this Report, please kindly contact us at: info@fiingroup.vn Wishing you a successful year ahead and happy investing! Data Analytics Team Financial Information Group FiinGroup Joint Stock Company
  • 3. 3Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up This return is equal to 12-month deposit rate - a very low risk investment channel. Figure 1: Price change of popular investment channels in 2019 The VN-Index rose only 7.7% in 2019, volatility is low Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Average 12-month deposit rate of 4 state-owned banks. SJC domestic gold price.  Stock trading provides investors with opportunities to make a quick profit from "surfing" and trading many times, not just buying and holding until the end of the year. From this perspective, VN-Index in 2019 was not attractive in terms of volatility with the peak at 1024.91 point and bottom at 878.22 point, or 16.4% moving range.  Moreover, the average daily trading value also dropped by 29% to VND4.7 trillion from VND6.5 trillion in 2018.  Regarding real estate investment channel, if excluding the price increase, the rental income for apartments was quite low, specifically 4.4%/year for luxury, 5.7% for mid-end and 5.9% for affordable segment, according to batdongsan.com. This level was lower than the average return on stock market in 2019. VN-Index, 7.7% USD/VND, -0.06% Gold Price, 16.5% Deposite Rate, 6.83% Deposite Rate, 6.73% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% VN-Index USD/VND Gold Price Deposite Rate
  • 4. 4Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up In the context that macroeconomic indicators has been good and are expected to remain healthy, stock market performance is the disappointment for investors. Figure 2: Returns of invest channels 2010 - 2019 VN-Index only grew 6.4%/year on average in the past 10 years Source: FiinPro Platform  Looking at longer horizon, VN-Index increased by only 76% in the last 5 years and 94% in the past decade.  The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of VN-Index in the past 10 years was about 6.4%, higher than 4.8% for gold. In the last 5 years, CAGR of VN-Index was 12%.  In short, in 2019 and the past 5 years, the stock market was basically not an attractive investment channel, although many investors have enjoyed high returns, especially in 2018. VN-Index, 94.7% Gold Price, 59.7% -35% 5% 45% 85% 125% VN-Index Gold Price
  • 5. Let's look back 2019 and recent years with market data and fundamental data sourced from our FiinPro Platform
  • 6. Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 7. 7Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% while trading volume fell by 15.9% in 2019. Why? Many factors but the most notable are that domestic investors shifted to corporate bonds while foreign investors' net buying was very low! Figure 3: Average daily trading value of HOSE, HNX and UPCOM and VN-Index movements Liquidity Drained!  Compared to 2018, the average daily trading value dropped by 28.9% to VND4.7 trillion while average daily trading volume fell 15.9% to 227 million shares.  In terms of transaction type, daily trading value of put-through decreased by 10.8% to VND1.2 trillion, while order-matching daily trading value fell by 33.5% to VND3.5 trillion. Source: FiinPro Platform VN-Index 1204.33 960.99 2.3 0.8 1.0 1.2 2.7 2.2 2.5 4.2 5.2 3.5 2.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 3.0 2.5 3.0 5.1 6.5 4.7 (2) 48 98 148 198 248 - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TrillionVND Avg. Deal Value Avg. Match Value VN-Index
  • 8. 8Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up However, some sectors saw very high liquidity improvement! Liquidity Drained!  In terms of market cap, the average daily trading value fell by about 34.3% in large-caps, 33.1% in mid- caps and 16.2% in small-caps.  Sectors with highest drop in liquidity were Financial Services (mainly due to SSI, VND), Communications (YEG) and Banking (VPB, ACB). In the contrary, Telecommunications (VGI), Construction & Materials (ROS), Chemicals (PHR) and Retailing (MWG) were the sectors with higher liquidity, in which Telecommunications soared thanks to VGI’s listing from the end of 2018. Figure 4: Change in average daily trading value by sector 2019 vs. 2018 Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Data includes HOSE. HNX & UPCoM -58.3% -55.9% -51.4% -46.9% -40.3% -38.7% -34.5% -32.4% -32.2% -27.1% -17.3% -16.9% -8.5% -5.4% -4.6% 9.3% 10.8% 44.4% 731.3% Financial Services Media Banks Basic Resources Health Care Oil & Gas Food & Beverage Travel & Leisure Real Estate Insurance Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Technology Utilities Personal & Household Goods Retail Chemicals Construction & Materials Telecommunications NVL, VIC, VHM MSN VGI ROS YEG SSI, VND
  • 9. 9Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 10. 10Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Many outperforming stocks rose sharply in 2019 and they all had their own stories! Top Gainers and Losers Source: FiinPro Platform  Every outperformer had their own story. VCB still maintained its upward performance of 70% last year; BID rose by 39% with nearly US$1 billion of fresh money from Korea; Technology (FPT and CMC) was heavily bought by being a leader in the trend of digital transformation and software outsourcing; and VGI (Viettel Global) on UPCoM also jumped sharply.  Besides the above-mentioned industries, Retail had 23.3% price growth despite strong fluctuations during the year while some sectors also posted high growth such as: (i) Real Estate (+17.8%); (ii) Tourism & Entertainment (+13.3%); (iii) Utilities (+11.7%). Figure 5: Top outperforming sectors in 2019 Banks, 25.9% Automobiles & Parts, 39.2% Telecommunications, 64.5% Technology, 49.6% VN-Index, 7.7% Banks Automobiles & Parts Telecommunications Technology VN-Index FPT +58.1% CMG +61.5% TCH +93.4% DRC +14% VCB +70.1% BID +38.8% VGI +80.3%
  • 11. 11Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up However, 2019 was a difficult year for those who owned Insurance, Oil & Gas and Financial Services i.e. securities firms and funds Top Gainers and Losers Source: FiinPro Platform  Draining market liquidity and lower investment revenue resulted in sharp fall of 21 out of 29 stocks in Financial Services, including leading stocks such as SSI (-39.1%) or VCI (-34%).  World oil prices were complicated last year causing disadvantages for Oil & Gas, especially Oil & Gas Exploitation. Although PLX rose by 9.9%, strong influence from the falling of BSR (-41.1%) and OIL (-46.6%) led to overall decline of the sector. Figure 6: Top underperformers in 2019 Insurance, -14.9% Oil & Gas, -13.6% Financial Services, -10.0% VN-Index, 7.7% Insurance Oil & Gas Financial Services VN-Index VCI -34% SSI -39,2% BSR -41,1% OIL -46,6% BVH -21,9% PTI -5,2%
  • 12. 12Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 13. 13Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? Source: FiinPro Platform Note: This is order-matching and no zero-sum game data on HOSE only, VN-Index change (monthly) Local investors seem to be gainers eventually in 2019 with buy low and sell high Figure 7: Net buying/selling value by foreign investors vs. local investors on HOSE in 2019  On HOSE, foreign investors was in opposite position, they bought high sold low.  In 2019, local investors sold Real Estate, Banking, Food & Beverages stocks while buying stocks of Construction & Materials. 2.0% 6.0% 1.6% -0.1% -2.0% -1.0% 4.4% -0.8% 1.3% 0.2% -2.8% -1.0% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% (2,500) (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Netbuy/sellvalue(BnVND) Foreign Investors Local Investors VN-Index Change Local investors net sold VND6.8 tn of shares in 9/12 months
  • 14. 14Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Figure 8: Foreign net buying/selling by sectors in 2019 vs. 2018 Unit: trillion VND Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCOM Foreign investors net bought VND7.3bn of Vietnam shares in 2019, including VND5.3bn of shares of VIC, and thus the foreign net buying value of other stocks was modest!  Real Estate, Banking, Financial Services, Retail, Foods & Beverages were still net purchased by foreign investors, but the net buying value in 2019 was much lower than those in 2018 and 2017.  Foreign investors net bought VND764.3bn of Insurance stocks (+58.3% y/y) though Insurance was the worst- performing sector in 2019. Oil & Gas and IT recorded VND1,900bn and VND270.2bn in foreign net buying respectively following foreign net selling in 2018. (1.5) (2.2) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5) 0.5 2.3 4.1 3.8 (0.7) 22.3 (1.6) (1.1) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5) 0.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 3.1 Travel & Leisure Construction & Materials Health Care Chemicals Basic Resources Insurance Industrial Goods & Services Financial Services Banks Oil & Gas Real Estate 2019 2018
  • 15. 15Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Large caps were still preferred by foreign investors in the past 3 years. Foreign net buying value totaled at VND108.8 trillion (over US$5bn) in recent 10 years. So who were net sellers? Figure 9: Foreign net buying/selling by stock marcap size Unit: trillion VND Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who’s the Winner? (8.5) 21.4 35.9 6.2 1.3 7.4 8.3 2.0 1.2 0.4 (0.9) (0.8) 2016 2017 2018 2019 TrillionVND Largecap Midcap Smallcap FOL regulation loosening Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM; year-end marcap: Largecap: > VND10tn, Midcap: VND100bn ~ 10tn, Smallcap: < VND1tn  Large cap & mid cap stocks enjoyed foreign net buying while small caps were net sold by foreign investors for a second consecutive year in 2019 with the net selling value of VND800bn in 2019 vs. VND900bn in 2018.  In 2019, foreign investors net bought VND2trillion worth of mid cap stocks, equivalent to 32.3% of their net buying value of blue chips. The ratio was lower at 23.1% in 2018.
  • 16. 16Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 17. 17Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Only 21% or 7 out of 33 equity funds tracked by FiinPro outperformed VN-Index, but these 7 funds hold a combined 1.84% of total AUMs of 33 funds. Data was updated as of Nov 29, 2019. Figure 10: NAV growth of ten equity funds 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! Sour: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data compiled from 33 equity funds as of 29/11/2019  33 equity funds (bond-focused funds excluded) tracked by FiinPro had total AUM of US$3.1bn as of Nov 29, 2019.  VEIL, the largest Vietnam-focused closed-end fund with US$1.5bn in AUM, had NAV growth of 8.32%. VOF, the second largest one with nearly US$930mn in AUM, reported NAV decline of 1.71% while TVAM Growth Fund had the strongest NAV decline of 13.3%. 16.46% 13.47% 12.48% 9.70% 9.27% 8.32% 4.36% 1.82% 0.00% -1.71% VN-Index: +8.86% VN30-Index: +3.72% Top 5 funds by NAV growth Top 5 funds by NAVs
  • 18. 18Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Equity funds uploaded Banking, Real Estate, Basic Resources, Personal & Household Goods stocks while cutting portfolios in Travel & Leisure and Utilities. Figure 11: Top holdings of equity funds by sectors & stocks Unit: trillion VND 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data compiled from 26 equity funds (excluding VEIL & Vietnam Equity (UCITS) Fund of Dragon Capital) as of Nov 29, 2019  Equity funds net bought VND1.55 trillion worth of local shares in 11M/2019, with TCB having the biggest foreign net buying value of VND502.7bn, followed by PVS (VND319.7 bn), and HPG (VND417.7 bn).  HPG was the top holding by equity funds with a combined value of VND3.3tn by the end of Nov 2019. 3.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 2.9 1.9 1.9 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.5 2019 2018 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.4 4.6 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.7 3.6 Travel & Leisure Insurance Utilities Oil & Gas Financial Services Construction & Materials Food & Beverage Industrial Goods &… Real Estate Banks 2018 2019
  • 19. 19Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 20. 20Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Net buying value by prop trading totaled VND308.2bn (nearly US$13.1mn) in 2019, reversing from net- selling position in the previous four consecutive years. Figure 12: Net prop trading value in 2015-2019 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE only (922.4) (379.8) (1,366.8) (1,280.2) 308.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BillionVND Net selling of VND3.9tn in 4 consecutive years Unit: billion VND  The net buying value by prop trading was modest but this indicated their view about market outlook.
  • 21. 21Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Food & Beverages and Banking recorded net buying value of prop trading while shares of Financial Services were net sold by them. Figure 13: Net buying/selling value of prop trading by sectors Unit: trillion VND Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! Source: FiinPro Platform Note: Data covered HOSE only  Food & Beverages shares have been steadily net bought by prop traders at securities companies since 2016, with the 2019 net buying value topping at VND1.74 trillion, +10.6 times against 2018.  Prop traders net purchased VND407.3 billion worth of Banking shares in 2019 after maintaining net- selling position in the four preceding years.  Financial Services stocks were sold for the fifth consecutive year in 2019, with the net selling value of nearly VND2.4 trillion. (1.8) 0.2 0.2 (0.3) 0.2 (0.2) (0.1) 0.2 (2.5) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1.7 Financial Services Utilities Industrial Goods & Services Automobiles & Parts Travel & Leisure Construction & Materials Real Estate Oil & Gas Banks Food & Beverage 2019 2018
  • 22. 22Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 - 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 23. 23Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Insiders also on Net Buy! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform Notes: HOSE, HNX & UPCoM  SBT had internal shareholders bought at most. Internal shareholders net bought 80 million shares from early Sept to mid-Oct 2019 during which SBT shares bounced back 13.3%.  ROS and ACB shares were net sold by internal shareholders at most. Trading by internal shareholders was mostly seen in Food & Beverages, Real Estate and Construction & Materials. Figure 13: Top 10 internal shareholders’ trading by sectors by volume 137.8 (38.3) (26.8) (20.1) (13.8) (9.3) 7.4 16.0 50.8 72.6 111.3 Total Construction & Materials Banks Industrial Goods & Services Travel & Leisure Automobiles & Parts Utilities Financial Services Basic Resources Real Estate Food & Beverage
  • 24. 24Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 - 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 25. 25Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise! Unit: million USD ETFs increased their assets in Vietnam by US$149.2mn (nearly VND3.5tn) in 2019 (despite net outflows in global markets) Figure 15: Vietnam assets value in portfolios of ETFs Source: FiinGroup Notes: Data from 6 biggest ETFs having assets in Vietnam  Taking advantage of not being subject to FOL regulations, two local ETFs (VFMVN30 and SSIAM VNX50) increased their Vietnam portfolios by a combined US$98.9mn in 2019.  Assets in Vietnam by three of the other four ETFs rose US$73mn. iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF is the only ETF which cut assets in Vietnam, to US$58.7mn by end-2019 from US$81.4mn a year earlier. 283.0 280.2 436.5 502.9 24.0 7.8 282.97 280.24 271.85 58.69 23.68 7.8 Xtrackers FTSE Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C VFMVN30 VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF iShares MSCI Frontier 100 ETF Premia MSCI Vietnam ETF SSIAM VNX50 Total NAV (mn US$) Vietnam Assets (mn US$)
  • 26. 26Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up ETFs continued to buy Real estate ETFs is Still Small but on the Rise! Source: FiinGroup Notes: Data compiled from 6 ETF  Real Estate stocks, led by VIC, VHM, VRE and NVL, were still favored by ETFs, having a combined 36.3% weight in their assets in Vietnam by value.  Food & Beverages, Banking and Basic Resources followed with respective weights of 22%, 14.2% and 6.4%. Figure 16: Top 10 Vietnam stocks held by ETFs Unit: mn USD 136.7 138.0 126.0 74.2 75.5 68.5 70.6 64.3 57.4 23.0 113.7 116.3 81.1 57.4 72.0 39.6 60.1 11.0 48.9 0.0 VIC VNM VHM VRE MSN VCB HPG VJC NVL TCB 2019 2018
  • 27. 27Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 - 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 - 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 28. 28Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Investors preferred bonds issued by public companies to new share issues Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Issuance by listed companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM 64.6%35.1% 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 0 50 100 150 200 Bonds Issue IPO Shares Issue +47.4% +15.9% +48.9% +45.5% +11.4%Unit: trillion VND Investor switched their preference to c-bonds: Listed companies raised VND13tn or around US$5bn via c- bonds. This is attributed to the dwindling market liquidity! Figure 17: Capital mobilization on stock market in 2010-2019  Value of additionally-issued shares grows modestly: The value of additional shares issued on the stock market totaled at VND73.4 trillion or nearly US$3.2bn (+9.2% y/y).  Value of IPOs is tiny: The stock market had just few small IPOs which mobilized over VND600 billion, equivalent to 0.85% of the 2018 value and hitting the lowest level since 2013. IPOs of giant SOEs such as Mobifone, VNPT, Satra have not yet taken place as planned while there was no remarkable IPOs by private companies.
  • 29. 29Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table 1: Capital mobilization structure in 2019 Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Capital mobilization value by companies listed on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM Unit: trillion VND Majority of capitals raised through the stock market came from share sales through private offerings and to foreign strategic investors!  The value of VND56.8trillion from private placements was mostly contributed by share sales to foreign strategic investors, including VND20.3tn in BIDV (paid by Hana Bank for a 15% stake); VND17tn in VIC; VND6tn in VCB; VND4tn in BVH and VND3tn in MPC. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IPO 1.1 3.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 7.9 6.3 11.5 32.4 73.7 0.6 Bonds Issue 9.0 19.4 7.5 8.7 1.2 7.8 14.4 16.1 40.2 46.7 135.0 Banks - 8.6 - - - - - 7.6 8.3 18.8 99.9 Real Estate 2.0 1.6 1.3 6.3 0.1 3.2 4.4 3.7 19.0 16.3 14.7 Shares Issue 29.1 67.8 59.5 21.0 58.6 35.0 54.0 58.9 56.3 67.2 73.4 Private placement 15.6 25.4 46.0 12.0 40.6 22.5 32.5 40.6 30.0 47.2 56.8 ESOP 0.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.3 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.9 3.6 2.6 Issuance for creditors - - - - - - - 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.2 Share auctions 5.4 0.7 0.1 0.2 - 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.2 0.1 0.4 Rights issue 7.9 40.3 12.7 8.1 16.7 11.9 20.0 13.6 21.9 15.1 13.4 Margin loans 22.9 25.2 39.8 47.5 55.2 Total 39.3 90.9 69.9 29.7 60.4 50.7 74.7 86.6 128.9 187.6 209.0
  • 30. 30Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Figure18: Value of c-bonds by sectors Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: C-bonds issued by companies listed on HOSE, HNX & UPCoM, excluding banks Listed companies switched to issue c-bonds, instead of additional shares, to finance growth!  The value of corporate bonds issued by listed companies hit the highest ever level at VND135 trillion in 2019, +209% y/y as a result of Circular No. 22 which increases the high risk ratio in bank loans for real estate projects to 200% from the earlier 150% and lowers the ratio of short-term capital for medium- and long-term loans.  In 2019, the c-bond issue value was equivalent to 13.87% of total loans disbursed by local banks, higher than the ratio of 6.23% in 2018 and 4% in 2017.  If banks were excluded, 42% of bond issuers were real estate companies in 2019, with bond coupon rates popular at 10%-13% per year, or 450-650bps higher than 2018 rates and 100-200bps higher than lending interest rates. This is likely a burden for real estate companies given the current unfavorable market conditions. Real Estate, 41.9% Construction & Materials, 19.6% Financial Services, 15.1% Travel & Leisure, 3.7% Basic Resources, 2.4% Other, 17.3%
  • 31. 31Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Despite the rising value of c-bonds, financial leverage ratio at listed companies declined in recent two years due to their less borrowing from banks while the quality of their profits and cash flows is deteriorating (see next slides)! Investor’s preference switched to Bonds Figure 19: Financial leverage ratio (Debts/Equity) of listed companies Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: Data is from 1019 listed firms on HOSE, HXN, UPCOM, excluding banks, insurances and data is as of end-Q3/2019 0.65 0.58 0.70 0.63 0.65 0.71 0.72 0.67 0.60 0.54 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.56 0.57 0.73 0.79 0.73 0.73 0.78 0.81 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.65 Real Estate Total
  • 32. Forming market views is challenging to any research and investment institutions We provide some data-evidenced analysis in next pages with a hope to assist your investment view formation process!
  • 33. Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 34. 34Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  This is the most positive factor for the market potential in 2020. However, the key points lies on the quality of corporate’s profit growth in the coming quarters to lure cash flow return. Figure 20: P/E & VN-Index in the last 3 years Market valuation is currently the same level as when VN-Index hovered around 700 in mid-2017 before a strong rebound! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform VN-Index, 741.91 VN-Index, 960.99 P/E , 15.9 P/E , 15.7 15 17 19 21 23 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 P/E VN-Index VN-Index P/E Market Valuation Looks Attractive!
  • 35. 35Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  In the last 3 years, P/B reached the peak of 3.4x in mid-April/2018 and then declined to 2.3x by end- 2019, this is also P/B level when VN-Index was at 700 in 2017. Figure 21: P/B & VN-Index in the last 3 years PB tells the same story Source: FiinPro Platform Notes: P/B of companies listed on HOSE Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 VN-Index P/B
  • 36. 36Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Vietnam stock market is relatively attractive in comparison with other regional peers, especially when the country’s economic growth is considered! Figure 22: P/E & P/B of Vietnam stock market vs. regional peers Market Valuation Looks Attractive! Nguồn: FiinPro Platform, Bloomberg & MSCI  P/E of Vietnam’s stock market stood at 15.7x in 2019, higher than the average P/E of EMs (12.8x), but it was still below its average level in the three preceding years.  Vietnam stocks were more expensive than Sri Lanka and Pakistan, but cheaper than other markets in ASEAN: Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. 15.7 11.5 13.7 18.9 17.3 19.9 18.3 12.8 Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Emerging Market P/E 2.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 2.8 2.1 1.6 Vietnam Sri Lanka Pakistan Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia P/B
  • 37. 37Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 - 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 38. 38Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Quarterly net revenue and EBITDA growth (YoY) has seen a gradual decline in the last 6 quarters! But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! Figure 25: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base 13.7% 24.3% 33.5% 32.7% 22.4% 22.6% 19.3% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9% 6.9% 18.4% 9.0% 17.9% 18.1% 16.5% 15.9% 6.5% -1.5% -3.7% 10.8% 6.4% Net Sales Growth (VG inclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG inclusive)
  • 39. 39Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Although net profit grew by 15.4%, EBIT only rose by 6.2% in Q3/2019 as many companies booked irregular income. But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! Figure 26: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base 28.2% 28.7% 26.1% 27.4% 32.4% 19.2% 8.3% -0.2% 0.6% 13.2% 15.4% 22.3% 4.2% 22.7% 15.1% 21.5% 22.1% 6.5% -1.4% -7.9% 15.2% 6.2% Net Earnings Growth (VG inclusive) EBIT Growth (VG inclusive) Non-recurring incomes by PHR, MSN, HVN Impacted by Real State & Basic Resource sectors’ decline Non-recurring incomes by GMD, Masan groups Impacted by Steel sector’s decline
  • 40. 40Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  Excluding VinGroup, both revenue growth and EBITDA growth showed clearer fall and EBITDA even saw negative growth in Q2 and Q3/2019. The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies! Figure 27: Net revenue growth & EBITDA growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for the same base - VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 11.4% 22.0% 31.3% 33.0% 18.9% 20.6% 18.7% 10.2% 14.2% 12.0% 5.2% 16.8% 4.5% 14.5% 17.3% 14.5% 13.2% 8.3% 0.2% 1.4% -1.4% -3.9% Net Sales Growth (VG exclusive) EBITDA Growth (VG exclusive)
  • 41. 41Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up  Similarly, when the VinGroup companies are removed, despite net profit growth, EBIT growth fell by 6.8%. It was the sixth consecutive quarter that EBIT growth slowed down or declined. Figure 28: Net revenue growth & EBIT growth (YoY, excluding VinGroup companies) Source: FiinPro Platform Note: - Data based on announcement of 1,047 companies on HOSE, HNX, UPCoM. - EBIT & EBITDA do not include Banking and Insurance. - Only calculate growth when companies announced sufficient data for 2 periods. - VinGroup companies include: VIC, VHM, VRE, SDI, VEF The issue becomes clearer when excluding VinGroup companies! But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 30.7% 30.9% 23.0% 29.0% 26.2% 20.2% 7.9% -4.5% 1.6% 4.5% 14.3% 22.4% -3.4% 18.0% 13.2% 16.9% 20.1% 9.3% 2.2% 0.2% -0.5% -6.8% Net Earnings Growth (VG exclusive) EBIT Growth (VG exclusive)
  • 42. 42Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 - 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 43. 43Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Our calculation shows that VN30 group (accounting for 80% of VN-Index’s market cap) is forecasted to have an EPS growth of only about 5.4%! 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group Source: FiinPro Platform Figure 27: Forecast of EPS growth (adjusted) of VN30 group  The calculation was based on analysis reports of the securities companies and business plans announced by companies through 2019 AGMs with adjustment in number of outstanding shares to eliminate the impact of issuances to increase capital.  Analysts forecast that the VN30's EPS will increase by 5.4%, growing significantly slower than previous years, while according to companies’ plans, this figure is even -2.1%. 2,539.6 2,927.5 3,208.7 3,381.5 3,169.2 15.3% 9.6% 5.4% -1.2% -11% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Analysts consensus Management est. 2016 2017 2018 2019 2019 EPS EPS growth
  • 44. 44Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group Source: FiinPro Platform Note: * For banks, this is total operating income. Data from consensus of securities companies, VCB, CTG, BID, MBB and HDB are the 2019 interim earnings results Table 2: Estimated earnings & EPS growth of VN30 group in 2019 No Ticker Price 2019 Price Mkt Cap 2019 Est. 2019 Est. 9M2019 9M2019 2019 Est. TTM Q3/2019 Div Yid 2019 EPS 2019 Grth31/12/19 Change 31/12/19 Revenue (*) EAT EAT % Mgt. Plan EAT Grth P/E P/B ROE VND'000 (%) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) (VNDbn) % % (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) 1 VIC 115.00 20.7% 387,386.2 140,000.0 6,500.0 4,112.4 63.3% 5.0% 84.47 5.04 4.0% 67.7% 2 VCB 90.20 70.1% 334,540.7 42,701.0 18,573.8 14,127.3 88.3% 27.0% 17.12 4.11 26.3% 0.9% 27.2% 3 VHM 84.80 16.9% 278,950.8 53,191.3 21,105.0 17,347.7 84.2% 42.8% 15.79 5.19 31.9% -2.1% 4 VNM 116.50 0.7% 202,870.5 56,168.4 10,764.5 8,377.9 79.9% 5.5% 19.00 7.44 38.2% 4.3% -6.6% 5 BID 46.15 38.8% 185,616.1 46,567.0 8,643.2 5,645.1 68.5% 14.6% 22.54 2.42 12.6% 1.5% 17.5% 6 GAS 93.70 12.9% 179,337.1 75,652.3 12,918.5 9,060.5 118.5% 10.3% 14.75 3.94 26.0% 3.2% 12.8% 7 SAB 228.00 -14.3% 146,212.1 39,362.0 5,136.5 4,279.3 90.1% 16.7% 29.79 8.18 27.7% 23.0% 8 TCB 23.55 -8.9% 82,428.3 19,860.0 11,736.0 7,107.4 75.6% 38.5% 8.86 1.40 16.8% -53.8% 9 CTG 20.90 8.3% 77,819.2 35,076.0 9,287.8 6,824.5 89.8% 71.5% 12.72 1.05 8.6% 71.6% 10 VRE 34.00 25.5% 77,258.8 9,495.0 2,745.0 1,968.3 72.9% 13.7% 29.06 2.76 9.4% -3.3% 11 VJC 146.20 22.9% 76,585.2 60,470.5 5,660.0 3,680.5 74.0% 6.1% 15.13 5.16 34.9% 7.3% 12 MSN 56.50 -27.1% 66,045.5 36,834.0 5,525.0 4,616.4 83.9% -1.7% 12.55 1.96 14.6% 11.8% 13 HPG 23.50 -1.3% 64,885.2 63,079.3 7,352.7 5,654.9 84.4% -14.5% 8.82 1.41 17.0% 8.5% -34.0% 14 NVL 59.50 -7.3% 57,687.7 18,539.0 3,275.0 1,074.0 32.5% 0.2% 18.74 2.78 13.8% -12.1% 15 BVH 68.60 -21.9% 50,923.3 34,403.5 1,283.6 1,036.5 96.0% 10.3% 39.38 2.59 7.7% 1.5% 14.0% 16 MWG 114.00 33.3% 50,466.7 104,173.5 3,863.0 2,976.2 83.3% 34.1% 13.68 4.47 36.0% 28.5% 17 VPB 20.00 0.3% 48,755.0 35,460.7 8,173.2 5,753.8 75.7% 11.1% 5.87 1.20 21.9% -1.4% 18 MBB 20.80 18.6% 48,374.1 23,947.0 8,077.3 6,142.1 80.3% 30.5% 6.52 1.33 20.6% 14.7% 19 FPT 58.30 58.1% 39,543.5 28,080.7 3,359.0 2,939.8 82.4% 3.9% 12.47 2.91 20.3% 3.4% 16.0% 20 HDB 27.55 -9.1% 27,026.5 11,947.0 4,021.3 2,764.0 68.1% 25.6% 8.28 1.49 17.9% 41.5% 21 EIB 17.80 26.7% 21,883.9 4,469.0 772.0 882.4 102.4% 16.9% 34.42 1.39 4.1% 16.3% 22 PNJ 86.00 24.6% 19,366.2 16,702.8 1,158.0 805.9 54.5% 20.6% 17.82 4.64 26.8% 2.1% -16.3% 23 STB 10.05 -15.9% 18,126.7 14,236.0 2,470.7 1,923.3 92.2% 38.0% 6.52 0.69 10.9% 32.0% 24 REE 36.30 24.1% 11,254.8 5,577.0 1,545.0 1,242.2 85.3% -18.0% 6.47 1.13 17.2% 4.4% -13.4% 25 SBT 18.50 -3.5% 11,254.5 11,170.0 399.0 292.8 53.8% 38.5% 35.86 1.59 4.4% 26.3% 26 ROS 17.30 -55.3% 9,819.4 4,940.2 169.5 76.4 23.9% -8.4% 57.92 1.65 2.9% -24.2% 27 SSI 18.05 -29.2% 9,170.4 2,964.0 925.0 687.1 78.1% -29.0% 10.54 0.95 9.2% -30.5% 28 GMD 23.30 -5.6% 6,918.4 2,765.3 600.0 547.1 98.4% -68.4% 11.43 1.11 9.0% -68.1% 29 DPM 12.95 -38.8% 5,067.8 7,678.6 300.3 151.8 89.3% -57.9% 17.32 0.65 3.6% 7.7% -57.1% 30 CTD 51.30 -66.9% 3,913.8 22,922.5 689.0 477.6 36.7% -54.4% 4.94 0.48 9.8% 5.8% -54.8% Total VN30 1,028,433.3 167,028.7 122,575.3 80.9% 16.2% 17.15 2.98 20.5% 5.4% Average 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7% Trim Mean 34,281.1 5,567.6 4,085.8 76.9% 7.6% 19.96 2.70 16.8% 1.7% Median 26,013.8 3,942.1 2,958.0 81.4% 10.7% 14.94 1.81 15.7% 9.6%
  • 45. 45Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Table of Contents Content Page Preface 3 1 Vietnam Stock Market 2019: Data Analytics Perspective 6 - 31 1.1 Liquidity Drained! 6 - 8 1.2 Top Gainers and Losers 9 - 11 1.3 Foreign vs. Domestic Investors: Who is the Winner? 12 - 15 1.4 79% equity funds couldn’t beat the market! 16 - 18 1.5 Proprietary Trading Turned Net Buy! 19 - 21 1.6 Insiders also on Net Buy! 22 – 23 1.7 ETFs Still Small but on the Rise! 24 – 26 1.8 Investors’ preference switched to Bonds 27 – 31 2 2020 Market Outlook 32 – 47 2.1 Market Valuation Looks Attractive! 33 - 36 2.1 But Corporate Earnings Quality Deteriorating! 37 – 41 2.3 2019 EPS Growth Estimated at 5.4% only for VN30 Group 42 – 44 2.4 A View on Market in 2020! 45 - 50 About FiinGroup 51 - 59
  • 46. The future of the VN-Index, in our own opinion, is a direct function of cash flows from two main investor groups: foreign investors (mainly institutions) and domestic investors (mainly individuals)
  • 47. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 1 Foreign fund flows • The main drivers for the uptrend momentum and liquidity of VN-Index in previous years were the foreign capital inflow and behavior of domestic investors. Because the market is a "zero-sum game", liquidity rises, or the market has an opportunity to increase when the demand from foreign investors is higher than the available supply by domestic investors. • In 2019, new cash flows into the stock market were very limited. This was a key factor leading to liquidity slump and VN-Index growth of only 7.7% with low volatility. • Data shows that, basically, the Index tends to rise whenever foreigners net buy and vice versa, especially when we look at monthly correlation! • In 2019, they net bought only VND7.3 trillion (about US$310 million) on all 3 exchanges. Excluding VIC, net buying fell to only VND2.3 trillion. This was a very small number compared to VND28.4 trillion in net buying in 2017 and VND43.3 trillion in 2018. • Given US$2.7 billion FII flowing in Vietnam in 2019, we can see that foreign capital mainly flowed into government bonds, corporate bonds, strategic capital investment or M&A. Certainly, capital flowed into unlisted businesses rather than buying shares on exchanges. • Besides, despite the downtrend of the ETF model in the international market, in Vietnam, another source of foreign capital is from ETFs. In 2019, the size of the 6 funds we track increased by about US$149 million. • The macroeconomic context and the exchange rate are considered very stable by independent domestic and foreign research organizations. Working with many big investors interested in Vietnam's stock market, we believe that FII will continue to increase this year and the interest will shift gradually from the bond channel to the stock market. • Moreover, if we follow margin by Korean securities companies with their capital raising plan, we will see new money for market this year. • ETF will likely continue to thrive in 2020, especially the upgrading story of Vietnam stock market can be realized in the coming year and thus attracting higher proportion of capital allocation by emerging market-focused funds when Vietnam reaches this status. • Although it may not be large, it is likely that a part of the cash flow into Vietnamese stocks in 20202 ahead of Emerging market upgrade. • However, the bottom line, according to many large investment funds who are our customers, is that the market must have more quality goods, especially from equitization of attractive SOEs and IPOs of large private enterprises. The reason is that the level of foreign ownership in the stock market now is very high, especially on HOSE and therefore the market needs new and quality goods. POSITIVE
  • 48. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 2 Domestic fund flow • Domestic cash flow includes direct cash flow and indirect cash flow! • The direct cash flow is (i) the ability to transfer money from cash or savings to securities channels and (ii) the possibility of moving from alternative investment channels such as real estate and more recently corporate bonds as we have pointed out. • The indirect cash flow is credit growth or M2. Currently, credit is still tight with the growth limit of about 14%, mainly due to consumer and retail loan growth. According to our calculation, excluding credit growth for individuals (most home loans), credit growth for the business sector would grow by only 7- 8% in the past 2 years. • For business sector, this growth is very low in our opinion. Certainly, many businesses have chosen bond channels and if including the amount of capital mobilized through bond channels, the total debt growth of businesses is about 10%. • Cash flow from savings: The shift from term deposits (with interest rate of 7% for 1-year term), certificates of deposit (about 9%) and corporate bonds (equal to term deposit rate +4%, meaning about 11%) is a challenge for the securities channel. However, given the current performance of banks and money market movements (interbank interest rates and government bonds), we expect interest rates to fall by 50 to 100 basis points, in line with operating direction of the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam. • Cash flow from certificates of deposits: Certificates of deposits of consumer finance companies with quite attractive interest rates at 9-11% have increased sharply over the past years to meet their very high average growth. However, our data indicate that this capital mobilization channel has cooled down after a fairly hot growing period. • Cash flow from bonds: Bonds of public companies alone attracted more than VND135 trillion in 2019. With regulations tending to tighten this investment channel to ensure sustainable development as well as some businesses having liquidity problems with condotel mobilization products, we believe that investors are more aware of the risks of corporate bonds and similar forms of capital mobilization like condotel. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
  • 49. Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 3 Quality stock supply • To attract foreign money (offshore and onshore), the key point is that the market must have a new quality supply. Year 2017 and 2018 were typical with series of newly listed stocks such as ACV, TCB, HDB, VHM and Viettel Post. Listing of these stocks created a good supply for not only domestic and foreign investors but also catalyst to facilitate trading of related industries. • As the data indicates, in 2019, the number of large IPOs that attracted the attention of investors was not there! • Looking back at 2019, there were no big and attractive newly listed stocks. Certainly, this is a "chicken and egg" story. In 2020, it is expected some companies will be forced to go listing such as banking stocks. According to the Prime Minister's decision, all banks will have to list their shares on stock market by the end of 2020. • According to our data, there are currently 12 commercial banks with total legal capital of about VND100 trillion, or US$4.2 billion. Assuming these banks are listed at 1.4x P/B (the average of 18 listed banks), the total capitalization will increase by US$5.9 billion. However, we find it difficult for Agribank with charter capital of VND29 trillion to list in 2020 and not 100% of the shares will be free floated. • Regarding supply of stocks from equitization or divestment of state-owned enterprises, we think that 2020 will be pretty quiet as big names expected by domestic and foreign investors like Mobifone, Satra, etc. will unlikely be listed in this pivotal year. NOT POSITIVE
  • 50. 50Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up Drivers of stock market in 2020! Driver Data Analysis Rating 4 Corporate Earnings Prospect and Quality • Corporate earnings i.e. revenues and profits have grown steadily in terms of accounting data. • However, quarterly EBITDA, EBIT and CFO data shows that the quality of corporate profit has been deteriorating which can be seen not only in the leading businesses but also the rest of the market. • The data also indicates that the EPS growth in 2019 is estimated at as low as 5.4%, the lowest in 5 years. Basically, in Vietnam if a company or a sector’s growth is below GDP expansion it means no growth! • Analysts and media all believe that Vietnam has a very good growth potential thanks to the rise of local consumption as well as incomes by middle class. Basically, we are in line with them. • However, when assessing the quality of growth and especially the quality of profit of large businesses as well as non-financial sector, our data gives the opposite opinion, at least in the last 4-6 quarters as shown in this report. • Surprisingly, the "champions" and "proxies" representing Vietnam's "consumption growth" in various popular categories such as Vinamilk (VNM), Mobile World (MWG), Masan (MSN) to emerging stars such as Quang Ngai Sugar (QNS) also had Q3/2019 revenues declining or slowing down compared to the same period in 2018 and declining from Q2/2019 . For MWG, the data also indicates that Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) continuously declined from 38% to minus 10% in Q3/2019. NEED FURTHER TRACKING AND EVALUATION
  • 51. You can access this data on our FiinPro Platform and many other data about nearly 3,000 public companies with many other great features! Please visit www.fiinpro.vn for further information and trial A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP
  • 52. And if you are subscribing our FiinTrade Platform, we have standardised the data for your great investing and trading experience. FiinTrade is considered as “Eikon for average investor” in Vietnam. You can subscribe online to use it at www.fiintrade.vn A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP
  • 53. 53Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research The Powerf ul Product Suite of FiinGro up FiinGroup (previously StoxPlus) is a Vietnam’s leading provider of financial data, business information, industry research and other data-driven analytics services About FiinGroup JSC FiinGroup Joint Stock Company The group of businesses in information and data analytics Financial Information The Largest and Most Innovative Financial Information Provider Business Information The Largest Most Innovative Business Information Provider Market Research The Most Trusted Independent Research House Comprehensive and In-depth Financial Database & Analytics for analysts and researchers Powerful Trading Information & Analytics Platform for Brokers, Traders and Active Investors API Datafeed Securities Data Solutions to Client’s designated system via XML or API Business Report Report service for risk management, sales leads, partner screening, due diligence and so on Corporate information platform which maps out relationships between companies and persons Industry Report Insightful reports for all key sectors of Vietnam under paid publications ready to use Market Research Customised research at client’s request including data analysis and on-the- ground surveys Market Entry Advisory Experienced and seasoned professionals to support clients expanding market in Vietnam Business Information and Risk Platform for Vietnam Credit Rating Agency* The Most Trusted CRA for both Issuers and Investors * CRA business is yet to introduced by mid 2020
  • 54. ‹#› A comprehensive Financial Database Platform for Vietnam 54 A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC Who should use our FiinPro? Securities Firms Asset Management Firms Research Institutions Insurance Companies Investment Companies Commercial Banks Consulting Firms Main Platform Features Excellent Customer Support  Dedicated customer support for any additional data request beyond standard services Insightful Company Analysis  Standard and in-depth trading data  One-click for an insightful company report; and much more In-depth Market Analysis  Realtime data for individual stocks, sectorial indices and market indices  Standard market data from Exchanges, etc. Comprehensive Industry & Macro Data  Economic data with 1000+ macro indicators  Standard industry datasets for key sectors of Vietnam Useful Research Tools  Stock Screening  Strategy Screening  Cross Section Analysis  Contribution Analysis  Portfolio Management  Technical Analysis Interactive Data Explorer  Personalised data templates  Selected stock groups or across industries  Market data and fundamental data Financial News  All corporate announcements  Industry news  Market news  My Daily Reports Vietnam Specific Data  IPO Statistics  SOE Divestments  Share and Bond Issue Plan  Equity Market incl. Stocks and Derivatives  Fund Market incl. Open Funds and ETFs  Fixed Income incl. G- bond and C-Bond  Corporate Data  Industry Data  Macroeconomic Data Powerful Analytics Tools for:  Market/Trading Data  Reference Data  Corporate Actions  Financial Data  Earnings Consensus  Market news and Analysis  And much more… Data and Content Coverage:
  • 55. ‹#› A trading information and analytics platform for brokers, traders and Active Investors in Vietnam Stock Market 55 A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC Who should use our FiinTrade? Stock AdvisorsActive InvestorsBrokers Traders Trade Executors Portfolio Managers Key Platform Features Premium News • Announcements • Realtime AutoNews • Stock Analysis • Market News Prices • Time & Sales • Prices Depth • Quote Movement • Price Data Market • Watchlist • Market In-depth • Market Calendar • Heatmap • Money Flow Technical Analysis • Technical Charting • Technical Signal • Technical Stock Scoring Stock Analysis • Company Snapshot • Ownership • Financial Checkup • Consensus Analysis • Financial Data Trading Tools • Trading Alerts • Stock Screener • Stock Ranking • Trading Strategies • API Data Trading Strategies • Value Stock Strategy • Growth Stock Strategy • Momentum Strategy • CANSLIM Strategy • Technical Strategy Stock Ranking • Stock Ranking • Stock Scoring  Comprehensive Information  Powerful functions  Real-time premium newsfeeds  Premium feeds from FiinGroup confidential research team  FiinGroup Scoring & Ranking Stock  In depth Analytics Why subscribing our FiinTrade?
  • 56. ‹#›  Radial Map: Instant visual insights about people and company connections  Interconnection Map: Identify cross- connections, clusters and syndicates  Beneficial Ownership Map: A convenient and safe way to conduct ownership checks  Investee Companies Search: Fastest way to discover a person’s or company’s ownership interests  Entity Profile Report: A quick overview of your business partners at the time of on-boarding Product Key Features Corporate information platform which maps out relationships between companies and persons in the corporate ecosystem A PRODUCT OF FIINGROUP JSC Who should use our FiinConnex? Investment FundsBanks Consulting Firms Trading HousesLaw Firms Risk management • Adverse info checks • Conflicts of interests The common use of FiinConnex Due diligence • Client on-boarding checks • Background checks • Beneficial ownership checks • Vendor screening Research & investigation • Target profiling Explore opportunities • Potential customers • Warm lead generation • Comparisons Warm Leads Increase new customer penetration through warm leads generated from analysis of existing client base Convenience Gain actionable insights on people and companies from curated sources using our user- friendly platform Enhanced Risk Management Identify indirect connections among persons and companies Instant & Unique Insights Discover new and unique insights into the complex connections among companies in Vietnam. Benefits from subscribing our FiinConnex 56
  • 57. ‹#› We offer both technology-based reports and analyst-based reports from our aggregated source of 1 mil+ registered enterprises in Vietnam. Types of Reports: • Profile Report • Company Factsheet • Credit Report • Standard Research Report • Comprehensive Research Report 57 Private Company Research Report Business Profile • Key business activities • Legal Rep. • Address and Contact • Development milestones Ownership Analysis • Founding shareholders • Management ownership • Institutional shareholders • Foreign shareholders Operational Data • Branches and Subsidiaries • Headcounts • Production sites • Capacity • Factories Insightful Analysis • Market Share • Management Background • Financial DD News Analysis • Litigations • Negative News • Key development • Tax filing status Financial Analysis • Balance Sheet • Income Statement • Cash Flows Statement • Financial Ratios Company Scoring • Industry Benchmarking • Z-Score • M-Score • Short-term Credit Limit • Credit Rating Management Background • Management Background • Board of Directors • Board of Management
  • 58. Customised Research Leveraging on our comprehensive corporate and industry database, we support our client’s decision- making process with tailor-made service. The scope is more in-depth research tailored to clients’ specific segments of interest with insight input by industry experts. Presentation Company visits Business matching  Banks  Consumer Finance  Payment Gateway  Finance Leasing  Insurance  Food & Beverages  Brewers  Soft Drinks  Food Processing  Seafoods  Consumer Retailer  ICT Retailer  Fashion Retailer  Convenience Store  Health & Beauty Store  Utilities  Water Supply and Distribution 15 Industry Report These are on-the-shelf industry reports providing clients with comprehensive information and in-depth analysis reviewed by industry experts including competitive landscape, key players, and key development trends to help assess the market's attractiveness and investment opportunities. A selection of sectors we cover  Financial Services  Construction & Materials  Cement  Additives and Concrete  Admixtures  Home Builders  Industrial Goods  Containers & Packaging  Flexible Packaging  Transportation  Logistics  Cool Chain Storage  Healthcare  Hospital and Clinics  Health Care Equipment  Pharmaceuticals  Internet Technologies  Automobiles & Parts
  • 59. ‹#› Ho Chi Minh City Branch 3rd Floor, Profomilk Plaza Building, 51-53 Vo Van Tan Street, Ward 6, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam Tel: +84 28 3933 3586/ 85 Email: info@fiingroup.vn Head Office 10th Floor, Peakview Tower, 36 Hoang Cau Street, O Cho Dua Ward, Dong Da District, Hanoi, Vietnam Tel: +84 24 3562 6962 Email: info@fiingroup.vn

Notas do Editor

  1. 54
  2. 55
  3. 56
  4. 57